At the Quarter Pole - MLB So Far

While the All-Star game is when most baseball analysts start breaking down the baseball season so far and what is to come, but I like to break baseball up into quarters. Much like high school, except this class has way more fun numbers to play with. And gambling.

Quarters tend to give a decent (although not entirely accurate) model into how we should expect the season to play out. Here were the standings last year after May 20th. Bolded w/o italics indicates the eventual division champ; bolded w/ italics indicates Wild Card entry:

2012 MLB Standings after May 20th

Balt - 27-15
TB - 25-17
Tor - 23-19
NYY - 21-20
Bost - 20-21

Cle 23-18
CWS - 21-21
Det - 20-21
KC - 16-24
Min - 14-27

Tex - 26-16
Oak - 21-21
Sea - 19-24
LAA - 18-24

Atl - 26-16
Wash - 24-17
NYM - 22-19
Mia - 22-19
Phil - 21-21

Stl - 22-19
Cin - 21-19
Pit - 19-22
Hou - 18-23
Mil - 17-24
Cubs - 15-26

LA - 28-13
SF - 21-20
Ari - 19-23
SD - 16-26
Col - 15-25

The most fascinating stuff about these standings? Two things:

1. None of the teams that eventually won the division were leading at this point of the year, although 4 of the 6 that were leading did end up with all of the 4 wild card entries into the playoffs. Three of the eventual division champs overcame a 5+ game deficit with the division leader at this juncture.
2. Four of the six current division leaders were also the leaders at this point last year. Arizona and Boston are the only differences.

So for those of you penciling in all the division winners to hold on, remember that the season in long and that none of the division winners last year at this point held on to win the division. I'm willing to bet that at least one of the current division leaders is destined to be at the top when the season ends.

Current division leaders: NYY (0.5 games up); Cleveland (2 games up); Texas (6.5 games up); Atlanta (2.5 games up); St. Louis (2.5 games up); Arizona (1 game up). My guess? Texas & Atlanta hold up.

As was stated in my predictions blog, I made several bets for the 2013 season. Here's the predictions blog for reference  and also my official bets for 2013 before the season began (note: I added  $15 more to my Indians division bet at +1450 a few weeks ago). Let's have some fun with these:

• Raise your hand if you bet on Houston to win over 59.5 games *raises hand in disgust, in process of flushing a Benjamin in the toilet*. Currently, Houston is 12-32. In order to reach 60 wins, they need to go 48-70 down the stretch. I don't feel good about the start, but I have to remember that only requires a 40.6% win percentage down the stretch. I put my chances of winning this bet at around 30%.
• I laid heavy juice on Tampa Bay (Over 86) & Cleveland (Over 77.5) and also threw a little cash on each to win their divisions. So far, Tampa is right around the pace required (23-20 record ~ 86.65 wins with the current percentage), while Cleveland is two clear of the rest of the AL Central, sitting pretty at 25-17. Tampa needs to go 64-55 to win my bet, while Cleveland can go 53-67 and still win me my wins bet. I believe Tampa's best ball is coming - their ERA (4.42) will only get better. Even with a slight regression in hitting, I think Tampa still has a good/great chance of winning this division. Obviously I feel better about Cleveland's chances to cash the win bet at the moment, but the Indians have blown good starts the past few years, so I'm not holding my breath. Still though, a nice start. I put my chances of winning the Tampa wins bet at around 54%; division bet at 30%. Meanwhile, I put my chances of winning Cleveland wins bet at around 70%; division bet at 35%. Detroit should still win the division, but Cleveland's bats could carry them to division crown.
• San Diego was my other over bet (74.5 wins). A slow start had me doubting this bet, but a resurgence in the offense has increase my confidence in this ten-fold (14-8 in their last 22 games). They may only be 20-23, but I do think San Diego has a great shot to be a sleeper team to make the Wild Card. In order to reach the wins total, the Padres need to go 55-64 down the stretch. I believe they will crack 80 wins and contend for a Wild Card, so my confidence in this bet is at 70%
• My only under bet was the Blue Jays going under 89 wins. A 17-26 starts means that Toronto would need to go 73-46 (61%) while playing in baseball's best division. Needless to say, I put my chances of winning this bet at 85% (since anything can happen, but I feel really good about this).
• Other division bet I made was on the Phillies, who sport a 21-23 record and sit 4.5 games back of the Braves. I don't give the Phils much better than a 15-20% chance to win this.
• Player props - Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes most HRs in MLB. It took Bruce forever to hit a home run (now he has 5), while Cespedes just nailed his 8th. They both trail Justin Upton (14) by a significant amount. However, a little streak for either of these guys can put them right in it. My chance of winning either of these bets is about 2-3%.

Can't Wait: Preseason Pigskin Predictions

Bart Scott can't wait for the NFL season to start, and neither can I. Hence, NFL Predictions 5 weeks in advance.

There's still trades and signings to be made, but my gut feelings for NFL predictions are coming clearer to me. I'm gonna use an offshoot of Bookmaker's new site for odds reference purposes. With each team, I will pick whether I project over/under for the total listed on Bookmaker.

Note: I am projecting team's win totals, but did not add up the wins to see if they add up to the proper amount of games

AFC East
It looks to be a two-horse race between New England (-175) & the Jets (+130). The Bills (20/1) and Dolphins (10/1) are popular bets if you are looking to piss money down the drain.  I would have given the nod to the Jets here if they were able to sign Asomugha, but they are essentially the same team as last year, minus Brad Smith (who will be missed for his special teams contributions) & plus Plaxico (who will help in the red zone regardless of his layoff). The pick here is New England.

New England 11.5 (over - 13); NYJ 10 (push); Miami 8 (under - 7); Buffalo 5.5 (over - 6)

AFC North
Another two-horse race - with Baltimore (-160) edging Pittsburgh (+115) as the favorite, according to the site. Cincy (25/1) & Cleveland (10/1) are long-shots, and for good reason. I'll take the defending champs of the division (Pitt) to repeat, with Balt once again getting the wild card.

Pittsburgh 10.5 (over - 12); Balt 10.5 (under 10); Cleveland 6.5 (over -7); Cincy 5.5 (under - 5)

AFC South
According to oddsmakers, seems like the theme of the AFC so far is 2 teams with a real chance in each division. Every year, there's one division that has a team that surprises the league and wins a division. My first mild surprise in this regard is the Houston Texans (+175) over the Colts (-140). The moves of getting Wade Philips as defensive coordinator and Jonathan Joseph (a young solid cornerback) will help Mario Williams on the defensive end of the ball- which was the only thing that was holding them back from a playoff run last year. Their offense should continue to shine behind Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson. The Colts aren't the same team they were a few years ago, when they made their run to the Super Bowl. I think Manning is gonna miss some games with the neck injury this year, and they cannot afford him to be out in the slightest. His current backup? Curtis Painter (28 career attempts in 3 years).

Houston 8.5 (over -11); Indy 10 - (under - 9); Tennessee 7 (under - 6); Jacksonville 6.5 (Under - 5)

AFC West
Last year, this was one of the division winners that caught Vegas offguard, with the Chiefs taking the division from perennial power San Diego. I think the Chiefs overachieved last year and will come back down. I expect the Chargers at -225 (being the first team in modern football history to miss the playoffs despite top yardage rankings in offense and defense) to rebound and retake the division easily. Their special teams cannot be as bad as they were last year - their Achilles Heel last year.

San Diego 10 (over - 12); Kansas City 8 - (under - 7); Denver 5.5 (over - 7); Oakland 7 (under - 4).

NFC East
I'm gonna take the bait and make the Eagles (-150) as my division pick, but I think Dallas at +280 has the best value, given the way they closed the year with Garrett as coach. They still got some money to spend after being spurned by Asomugha - who went to their rivals in the city of Brotherly Hate. There aren't too much. No way anyone (even Mike Shanahan) could reasonably make a case for Washington (25/1); otherwise, I could see anyone, including the Giants (+225), taking the division.

Phil 10.5 (over -11); NYG 9.5 (over - 10); Dallas 9 (push); Washington 6 (under - 4)

NFC North
With the Packers returning about a starting lineup's worth of starters from their 2010 injured reserved list, their depth is unparalleled in the league. The Bears won the division despite a terrible pre-season but ultimately fell short in the NFC Championship. I think they over-achieved last year, mainly thanks to their dynamic defense - the staple of any Bears team that has success. I think the Packers take the division. And I'll go against the grain here and say that the Lions under-achieve compared to how everyone is perceiving them.

GB 11.5 (Over - 12); Chi 8.5 (Under - 7); Detroit 8 (under - 7); Minnesota 7.5 (under - 6)

NFC South
Atlanta (+110) & New Orleans (-110) appear to be the front-runners again this year, with each making significant moves in the offseason. Atlanta's main transaction was to add to their offense by drafting Julio Jones, a stud from Alabama, and in the process trading about half of their draft.  This deal reminded many of the deal the Saints made for Ricky Williams. While it should help their offense, I think the Saints will retake the division. They just signed San Fran's second best defensive player from last year (Franklin) to the D-Line and drafted Jordan out of Cal. These moves should help bolster a run defense that was about middle-of-the-pack. Tampa (+480), under the rising star of Josh Freeman, probably have the best odds of any team that I think has a reasonable chance at a division title.

NO 10 (Over - 11); Atlanta 10 (Push); Tampa 8 (Over - 9); Carolina 4.5 (Over - 6)

NFC West
Last and definitely least, here we are to the NFC Worst, the first division winner to ever sport a losing record. Never mind that Seattle (7-9 last year) upset New Orleans - doesn't erase the fact that this was the worst division in the history of any sport. San Fran (-130) is once again the preseason favorite, although not as highly hyped as last year, where just about every publication had them as the division winner. Again, until I see Alex Smith perform well consistently, I will find this division favorite stuff hard to believe - even in this division. The loss of Franklin to the D-Line will hurt the Niners more than most free agent losses to any team this year. I think the Rams (+200) will pull off the division victory. Bradford nearly did the impossible last year, having the Rams alive for the division crown going into the final week. This year, they will have it wrapped up by week 16.

StL 7.5 (Over - 9); San Fran 8 (Under - 7); Arizona 7 (Under - 6); Seattle 6 (Under - 4)

(I counted 13 overs, 16 unders and 3 pushes - so probably under-projected the league as a whole in terms of wins)

So to recap, division winners:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego
NFC: Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, St. Louis

Wild Cards:
AFC: Baltimore, NYJ
NFC: Atlanta, NYG

AFC Championship: San Diego over New England
NFC Championship: Green Bay over New Orleans

Super Bowl: Green Bay over SD

Of course, I will be way off on this. There will likely be at least one team around 4 or 5/1 that sneaks up on everyone and wins their division (best chance of that is with Tampa). I will definitely revisit this in 6 months to see how wrong I was, just as I have analyzed my baseball predictions.

Enjoy the preseason, and let's enjoy the first of at least a decade's worth of NFL seasons of labor peace.