Random Baseball Musings on Trade Deadline 2013

I've had a little hiatus from writing, but some MLB stuff has me wanting to scribe today...

Dead Trade Winds

The trade deadline in baseball came and went without much fanfare. And that shouldn't be a surprise.

With so many teams still within sniffing distance of the playoffs (including division leaders, there are 15 teams within 5 games of a playoff spot entering today) and the extra wild card spot helping keep teams in the playoff race, there's not a lot of teams willing to pull the trigger on major moves. Some of these teams on the fringe are in the uneviable position of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?", not far enough out of the playoffs to concede anything but far enough where you're going to have to gain X number of games on a bunch of teams in the next two months.

Trading guys was no problem for the crap de la crap of baseball (Astros, Cubs, White Sox all trading top half of the rotation starters to contenders). Hell, we even got one of the best trades for names in MLB history, as the Orioles shipped Hoes (L.J. Hoes - he's real, trust me) to Houston for Bud (Bud Norris). The only other trade I can think of with better names was when Detroit traded Furbush to Seattle for Fister.

The End of Long Deals?

Two stories that have transpired from the past couple weeks could not have been timed out better. As A-Rod, among many others, awaits his suspension from MLB on his role with the Biogenesis facility that has trampled the season of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols went on the disabled list with a torn plantar facia, an injury that has been bothering him all season. According to many sources, it sounds as though he may be done for the year - just like his fellow Angels are (14 games back in AL West, 10 games back in Wild Card as of today).

The timing of this news has led a lot of sites to ask which of the contracts was worse - A-Rod or Albert? What the real question should be is: is this the end of long-term deals? It was going to be difficult for either of them to truly live up to the expectations of the size and length of their respective contracts (each got 10-year deals).

Here's what Albert has done since 2012 since becoming a member of the Angels. Those are not terrible stats, but when compared to the first 11 years of his career, there's a sharp decline in all of his power numbers (from 162 game averages of 43 home runs .328 average, .420 on base, .617 slugging with St. Louis to 31 home runs, .275 average, .338 on base, .485 slugging with the Angels.) In other words, he went from a Hall-of-Fame player to a guy that's above average, but definitely trending downwards (and in a hurry). There's still eight years on his mega-deal (10 years, 240M), so there's still time for him to turn things around (perhaps the injury has hurt his production?). But more likely, this is the sign of a player who is on the latter half of his career who can still produce at above-average player percentages. However, above-average is not what the Angels paid for.
 
As I said back in 2011, I thought it was smart for the Cardinals not to overpay for Albert. In my lifetime, they are as smart and steady of an organization as there has been in the majors, almost always in playoff contention. They made it to three World Series with Albert (won two), so they definitely got their money's worth and the very best of his contract. For this contract to be worth it for the Angels, I think they will need to win at least one World Series.

In that same article linked in the previous paragraph, I noted the stats of A-Rod since he signed his deal. Nothing has changed that would support this being a smart contract for the Yankees - a sub-par 2012 and a non-existent 2013 that is likely to end in suspension tell that story. They did win a title with him in 2009, which honestly seems decades ago with how much has happened in baseball and with A-Rod since then.

In the aftermath of these deals, I think you will see these big market teams be smarter in making these long-term deals. Should a long deal be made, it will be similar to the Dustin Pedroia extension with the Red Sox (a 6-year deal that signs him through his 38th birthday). Signing a 31-year-old guy to a ten-year-deal has proven to be a foolish move. The best of these guy's careers has already passed, and paying a 38/39 year-old Pujols close to $30M is going to be a disaster towards a team's payroll - the return on investment is going to be brutal for the Angels. If another 10-year deal is to be made, it will be for a guy in his mid-20s, which would be infinitely smarter than the Albert & A-Rod deals.

The Rise of the Small Payrolls

Ironically, it's contracts like these that have helped teams with smaller payrolls become contenders - as these teams have no chance in hell of ever being able to sign a guy to that long and rich of a contract.

A list of each team's payroll entering 2013 shows that you can contend in MLB with a lower payroll. Out of the six division leaders through July 30, there's more teams in the bottom half leading divisions than their higher spending bretheren:

AL West: Oakland (60M, 27th overall out of 30 teams)
AL East: Tampa Bay (57M, 28th)
AL Central: Detroit (148M, 5th)
AL Wild Cards & Contenders: Boston (150M, 4th), Baltimore (90M, 15th ), Cleveland (77M, 21st), Texas (112M, 12th)

NL West: Los Angeles (216M, 2nd)
NL East: Atlanta (89M, 16th)
NL Central: Pittsburgh (79M, 20th)
NL Wild Cards & Contenders: St. Louis (115M, 11th), Cincinnati (107M, 13th), Arizona (89M, 17th)

While not likely to happen, it is possible that none of the top-10 spending teams make the playoffs. That would require Detroit and Los Angeles (the NL version) to tail off in the last two months and for Boston to slip out of the Wild Card - all of which I don't see happening.  Best case scenario for the big spenders - three of the top 10 make it.

You may think some of these teams are flukes, but keep in mind that the Rays have been in the playoffs or on the fringe of it for a while now, Oakland won the division last year, and Pittsburgh has had strong first halves of seasons for three straight years now. These teams are all heading in the right direction and have solid player bases to remain contenders for the foreseeable future.

Argue all you want about MLB needing a salary cap, but I don't think that's accurate. In fact, it has forced these smaller teams to think outside the box, crunching numbers that were not studied decades ago in order to maximize the talent on its limited payroll (at least limited compared to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world).

I'll take my chances with the Rays, Pirates & Athletics' set-up for the next five years over what we have on both sides of Chicago.

So Much Action

This time of year is usually busy with baseball trades as underachieving teams look to unload payroll and build for the future and contenders look to add that extra piece to help them in their postseason runs. However, this year with NFL's lockout nullifying its own free agency, trades and draft signings up until this week, it's been an amazing week for anyone who is a fan of both baseball and football- and a very difficult week for newspapers trying to fit all of the transactions on one page.

As far as baseball deals go, I haven't been as interested in them as in most years. I think it's a combination of the NFL's action capturing my eye and the fact that I know the White Sox are not gonna be buyers this season. The one move they have made so far wasn't of the White Flag variety from the 1990s, but it certainly wasn't one that made you go rush out to buy your hypothetical 2011 playoff tickets either. We got a decent reliever (Jason Frasor - who happened to graduate from Oak Forest High School) and a minor leaguer for Edwin Jackson (who we weren't gonna resign) and Mark Teahan (who was eating money from the Sox like he was at Coney Island at the hot dog contest).

All I know is, in both sports, Philadephia fans cannot bitch about anything anytime soon. Signing Asomugha for the Eagles and getting Hunter Pence for the Phillies, Philadelphia fans couldn't have asked for a better combo of news in the span of one summer evening. If you want to go back 24 hours earlier, they also got another Pro-Bowl caliber cornerback and a draft pick in exchange for their backup QB. I don't know how it gets any better than that. Philadelphia is the new South Beach for athletes this summer. Luckily, none of them at this point have said they're taking their talents to Pennsylvania, but I don't think that has the same sex appeal as South Beach. If the NFC Championship Game does not feature at least the Eagles and/or the Packers, I'd be shocked.

With both sports in Chicago, the three teams collectively (White Sox, Cubs and Bears) are producing as much excitement as staring at sand. I already touched based on the White Sox, although their wheeling and dealing may not be done if we find a good deal for Quentin and/or Thornton. To me, trading either of them (especially Quentin) would seem White-Flagish. Our bullpen depth is good enough to survive Thornton's departure, but the way the Sox are hitting, Quentin's bat is needed if we are to overtake Cleveland and Detroit to take the division. I still have my doubts about the Sox whether we keep them or not. They've been too up and down this season for me to trust. And we're a Peavy injury away (let's face it, it's likely around the corner) from needing to depend on a minor league arm down the stretch.

The Cubs' mantra for this week is unloading whoever they can to interested teams. Unfortunately, there's so many bad contracts on the Cubs that it's hard to move these guys without offering teams $ in addition to letting guys go (i.e. Fukudome to the Indians). Ramirez appears to be softening on his stance to waive his no-trade clause, and I expect him to be dealt in the next 24 hours. Cubs fans should be glad that Sandberg wasn't offered the manager job, because I think fans of his might sour their opinion of him. No one man could have turned this turd into a golden ticket.

And the Bears, although not my team but the team I end up reading the most about because of local media, are lulling fans to sleep with their moves. Roy Williams was a one-hit wonder with the Lions, although it should be noted that his one-hit season for the Lions (2006 where he caught 82 passes for 1310 yards & 7 TDs) came when Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator. So perhaps that could be a bargain if you could even get 60 catches, 900-1000 yards and 5 TDs from him. Lots of fans seem upset at Olsen leaving, but he doesn't fit in the current Bears offense. You could blame Martz for that, as tight ends have never thrived in his offenses. Also, Kreutz might be signing with my boys (49ers), which I feel decent about as long as we don't overpay for him. Earlier this week, I saw the Bears' projected win total at 9.5. I'll take the under if any readers here wanna bet that they reach double digit wins.

The madness with NFL & MLB is just beginning. Hopefully, whatever team you follow doesn't do anything in the next day or two to let you down.