Random Baseball Musings on Trade Deadline 2013

I've had a little hiatus from writing, but some MLB stuff has me wanting to scribe today...

Dead Trade Winds

The trade deadline in baseball came and went without much fanfare. And that shouldn't be a surprise.

With so many teams still within sniffing distance of the playoffs (including division leaders, there are 15 teams within 5 games of a playoff spot entering today) and the extra wild card spot helping keep teams in the playoff race, there's not a lot of teams willing to pull the trigger on major moves. Some of these teams on the fringe are in the uneviable position of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?", not far enough out of the playoffs to concede anything but far enough where you're going to have to gain X number of games on a bunch of teams in the next two months.

Trading guys was no problem for the crap de la crap of baseball (Astros, Cubs, White Sox all trading top half of the rotation starters to contenders). Hell, we even got one of the best trades for names in MLB history, as the Orioles shipped Hoes (L.J. Hoes - he's real, trust me) to Houston for Bud (Bud Norris). The only other trade I can think of with better names was when Detroit traded Furbush to Seattle for Fister.

The End of Long Deals?

Two stories that have transpired from the past couple weeks could not have been timed out better. As A-Rod, among many others, awaits his suspension from MLB on his role with the Biogenesis facility that has trampled the season of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols went on the disabled list with a torn plantar facia, an injury that has been bothering him all season. According to many sources, it sounds as though he may be done for the year - just like his fellow Angels are (14 games back in AL West, 10 games back in Wild Card as of today).

The timing of this news has led a lot of sites to ask which of the contracts was worse - A-Rod or Albert? What the real question should be is: is this the end of long-term deals? It was going to be difficult for either of them to truly live up to the expectations of the size and length of their respective contracts (each got 10-year deals).

Here's what Albert has done since 2012 since becoming a member of the Angels. Those are not terrible stats, but when compared to the first 11 years of his career, there's a sharp decline in all of his power numbers (from 162 game averages of 43 home runs .328 average, .420 on base, .617 slugging with St. Louis to 31 home runs, .275 average, .338 on base, .485 slugging with the Angels.) In other words, he went from a Hall-of-Fame player to a guy that's above average, but definitely trending downwards (and in a hurry). There's still eight years on his mega-deal (10 years, 240M), so there's still time for him to turn things around (perhaps the injury has hurt his production?). But more likely, this is the sign of a player who is on the latter half of his career who can still produce at above-average player percentages. However, above-average is not what the Angels paid for.
 
As I said back in 2011, I thought it was smart for the Cardinals not to overpay for Albert. In my lifetime, they are as smart and steady of an organization as there has been in the majors, almost always in playoff contention. They made it to three World Series with Albert (won two), so they definitely got their money's worth and the very best of his contract. For this contract to be worth it for the Angels, I think they will need to win at least one World Series.

In that same article linked in the previous paragraph, I noted the stats of A-Rod since he signed his deal. Nothing has changed that would support this being a smart contract for the Yankees - a sub-par 2012 and a non-existent 2013 that is likely to end in suspension tell that story. They did win a title with him in 2009, which honestly seems decades ago with how much has happened in baseball and with A-Rod since then.

In the aftermath of these deals, I think you will see these big market teams be smarter in making these long-term deals. Should a long deal be made, it will be similar to the Dustin Pedroia extension with the Red Sox (a 6-year deal that signs him through his 38th birthday). Signing a 31-year-old guy to a ten-year-deal has proven to be a foolish move. The best of these guy's careers has already passed, and paying a 38/39 year-old Pujols close to $30M is going to be a disaster towards a team's payroll - the return on investment is going to be brutal for the Angels. If another 10-year deal is to be made, it will be for a guy in his mid-20s, which would be infinitely smarter than the Albert & A-Rod deals.

The Rise of the Small Payrolls

Ironically, it's contracts like these that have helped teams with smaller payrolls become contenders - as these teams have no chance in hell of ever being able to sign a guy to that long and rich of a contract.

A list of each team's payroll entering 2013 shows that you can contend in MLB with a lower payroll. Out of the six division leaders through July 30, there's more teams in the bottom half leading divisions than their higher spending bretheren:

AL West: Oakland (60M, 27th overall out of 30 teams)
AL East: Tampa Bay (57M, 28th)
AL Central: Detroit (148M, 5th)
AL Wild Cards & Contenders: Boston (150M, 4th), Baltimore (90M, 15th ), Cleveland (77M, 21st), Texas (112M, 12th)

NL West: Los Angeles (216M, 2nd)
NL East: Atlanta (89M, 16th)
NL Central: Pittsburgh (79M, 20th)
NL Wild Cards & Contenders: St. Louis (115M, 11th), Cincinnati (107M, 13th), Arizona (89M, 17th)

While not likely to happen, it is possible that none of the top-10 spending teams make the playoffs. That would require Detroit and Los Angeles (the NL version) to tail off in the last two months and for Boston to slip out of the Wild Card - all of which I don't see happening.  Best case scenario for the big spenders - three of the top 10 make it.

You may think some of these teams are flukes, but keep in mind that the Rays have been in the playoffs or on the fringe of it for a while now, Oakland won the division last year, and Pittsburgh has had strong first halves of seasons for three straight years now. These teams are all heading in the right direction and have solid player bases to remain contenders for the foreseeable future.

Argue all you want about MLB needing a salary cap, but I don't think that's accurate. In fact, it has forced these smaller teams to think outside the box, crunching numbers that were not studied decades ago in order to maximize the talent on its limited payroll (at least limited compared to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world).

I'll take my chances with the Rays, Pirates & Athletics' set-up for the next five years over what we have on both sides of Chicago.

Stink of the Sox: How Getting Clubbed by Cubs Shouldn't Be A Surprise (and Why I Expect Further Stink)

Entering the 2013 season, I had lower fan expectations than most when it came to the Chicago White Sox, who I believed overachieved greatly last season in holding first place in the AL Central for most of the second half of the season before being edged out by the eventual pennant winners Detroit Tigers.

My prediction of 76-86 was based on my questions with guys who had tough shoes to fill (Flowers replacing Pierzynski), who strike out too much for how little they get on base (Viciedo, Alexi), guys who would have a difficult time duplicating previous seasons (Sale, Peavy), and guys who would likely tail off at some point (Konerko).

I have been wrong so far about my pre-season assessment of Sale and Peavy, but otherwise most of my suspicions for a tail-off this season have been proved true, especially in their latest series versus their National League counterparts about 10 miles north.

The White Sox hitters have been beyond putrid this season. Check out some of these team stats entering Thursday's game (their third loss to the Cubs), accompanied by their AL rank (out of 15 teams). And remember that the Astros (one of the worst teams in the majors) are now in this league:

• .240 batting average (13th)
• .293 on-base percentage (15th)
• .379 slugging (13th)
• .672 OBP (15th)
• 126 extra base hits (15th)
• 121 walks (15th)

Trying to find a good stat from White Sox hitters is like trying to find Where's Waldo as a kid when the pages weren't pre-circled. If it wasn't for the stellar pitching of Sale & Peavy, this team would be much much worse than their 24-27 record indicates. It's actually quite surprising that they've even gotten this many wins.

On the other side of town...the Cubs have actually showed some promise, more than most people were expecting.

Here are the Cubs stats in the same categories entering play on Thursday:

• .248 batting average (8th - a higher average even though pitchers have to hit in NL)
• .302 on-base percentage (12th - one of the things really holding this offense back from being even better)
• .411 slugging (3rd)
• .713 OBP (8th)
• 172 extra base hits (1st in NL, 4th in the majors). 
• 118 walks (15th)

Most of these stats are not too shabby, especially for a team that sports a 22-30 record. Strange thing about their record is their runs for vs. runs allowed (Cubs have plated 214 runs to their opponents 208, including Thursday). These are stats that I like to use to see what teams might have deceiving records at a certain point in the year (I like to start taking stats/trends seriously around the 35-40 game mark). This contrasts the Sox luck of scoring only 183 runs while allowing 212.

Yes, at the end of the year, the record is what tells the story, especially of who is playing in the postseason and who is joining Terrell Owens and just eating popcorn in October. And by the time this season ends, I believe it will be the Cubs who will have bragging rights (at least with win totals) over their South Side brethren. 

With one game left in their season series with the South Siders on a yet-to-be-determined date, the Cubs clinched the Crosstown Cup with their win Thursday. Whenever their next game might be, I believe we will be looking at a North Side team that will have overtaken the White Sox in wins.

Sox To Be You: How the South Siders Have Fared Recently in Last Month of MLB Season

At this moment, I should be getting ready to go to a White Sox playoff game. At least that's what my hope was when I bought tickets to Game 1 of the ALDS a couple weeks ago.

However, as the White Sox have done many times over in the past decade, they faded into the sunset as Detroit's pitching hit their stride which helped them overtake Chicago without looking back.

It'll be tough to watch the Tigers when I thought a couple weeks ago it was going to be the White Sox, but I'll get over it. The expectations weren't too high for the year, but as the team starts to prove your expectations wrong, you start to slightly adjust your thoughts. Other White Sox fans - you can't tell me that your expectations didn't change when you saw them enter the All-Star break with the lead. Even though we weren't expected to win the division, I am very disappointed because down the stretch, I did expect to win it.

Here's an example of how the White Sox have done since 2000 before September and in September:

	Entering Sept
	Record	Place	Games Back or Ahead
2001	68-65	3rd	Down 7.5 games	to Cleveland
2002	65-70	2nd	Down 14 games	to Minnesota
2003	73-64	1st	Up 1.5 games	to Minnesota
2004	64-66	3rd	Down 8.5 games	to Minnesota
2005	80-51	1st	Up 7 games	to Cleveland
2006	78-56	2nd	Down 4.5 games	to Det
2007	57-78	5th	Down 20.5 games	to Cleveland
2008	77-59	T-1st	Up 1/2 game	to Minnesota
2009	64-68	3rd	Down 6 games	to Det
2010	72-60	2nd	Down 4 games	to Minnesota
2011	68-66	3rd	Down 6 games	to Det
2012	72-59	1st	Up 2 games	to Det

And here's how things ended in Sept/Oct

					Champ
	Sep/Oct	Final Record	Final Finish	Final Games Back/Ahead	or 2nd
2001	(15-14)	83-79	3rd place	Down 8 games	Cleveland
2002	(16-11)	81-81	2nd place	Down 13.5 games	Minnesota
2003	(13-12)	86-76	2nd place	Down 4 games	Minnesota
2004	(19-13)	83-79	2nd place	Down 9 games	Minnesota
2005	(19-12)	99-63	1st place	Up by 6 games	Cleveland
2006	(12-16)	90-72	3rd place	Down 6 games	Minnesota
2007	(15-12)	72-90	4th place	Down 24 games	Cleveland
2008	(12-15)	89-74	1st place	won division (1 gm playoff)	Minnesota
2009	(15-15)	79-83	3rd place	Down 7 games	Detroit/Minn
2010	(16-14)	88-74	2nd place	Down 6 games	Minnesota
2011	(11-14)	79-83	3rd place	Down 16 games	Detroit
2012	(12-18)	85-77	2nd place	Down 3 games	Detroit

In this twelve year span, the team in first place entering September has won eight out of the 12 division titles. The White Sox (2003, 2012) and Detroit (2006, 2009 - lost tiebreaker to Minn) were the teams who blew their division leads in the last month.

If you notice, the only year the White Sox gained ground on the competition closest to them was in 2002, when they gained that magical half game to finish 13.5 back of the Twins. You can say 2006 was gaining, but the Sox needed a one-game playoff to win the division.

Otherwise, in the past 12 years, we haven't seen a year where the White Sox had a better record than the team they are chasing or who is chasing them. Since the World Series win in 2005, they've barely broken .500 a couple times but otherwise have dragged to the finish line.

Sure, the Cubs are known as Completely Useless By September to the folks who like to stir up the White Sox/Cubs "rivalry", but when it comes to September, the White Sox have been pretty much completely useless.

You can tell me that this year was better than expected, and the March/April version of me would agree with you. But the September/October version of me feels like they let the fans down, And with how they've had problems closing out seasons as of late, you can't blame me for being disappointed.

An Open Letter to Cubs/White Sox Baseball Fans

Dear Baseball Fan,

I figure this is about as good of a time as any to write this, with our baseball squads nearing the start of their seasons in the Windy City. Over the years, I have developed a strong dislike to the ignorant comments from both White Sox and Cubs fans that has resulted in arguments that bring mankind back to the Stone Age. It has come time for me to express my distaste of everything that is stupid with our "rivalry".

Unhappy with me putting the word "rivalry" in quotes? I don't look at the two teams as true rivals--the Sox and Cubs are rivals 6 times a year in my eyes. Otherwise, as a White Sox fan, I couldn't care less what the Cubs do. In fact, in their other interleague games, I am rooting for the Cubs. This applies more now with the extra Wild Card in play - the more losses our divisional opponents and other AL squads lose, the better for the Sox. Most prognosticators have the Sox nowhere near the playoffs, so rooting for the Cubs in those situations may seem pointless, but I'll take my chances with the North Siders whooping up on our AL brethren.

There's a few bullet points that strike me at the heart of my annoyance with Cubs & Sox fans - on both sides - that I will address below.

• World Series - This is always the topic that gets brought up in Windy City baseball arguments stemming from the past seven offseasons. Yes - the White Sox took home the city's first baseball title in almost 90 years as they rode through October 2005 with relative ease. But to keep bringing it up in arguments with Cubs fans makes it sound like we won several titles in a 4-5 year period when we have only won a single playoff game since then. The titleless drought since then leaves Chicago with one title in the past 95 years. Almost 200 seasons worth of baseball (combining the two teams) and only one title to show for it. When it comes to the title argument, I say to Sox fans: Let It Go.
  
  The devil on the shoulders says, "Well, we did win a World Series in our lifetimes, so you can't hold it against us for being proud of that." True - that is something we have that Cubs fans cannot say at this point. For the North Side fans who say that our title was seven years ago - you are correct, and I applaud you for your math skills. But it did happen.
  
  I saw a Facebook post from one Cubs fan to another that seemed awfully touchy to an ad made by Comcast SportsNet that mocked a video game commercial about a Cubs fan who was happy he led his team to a World Series title. For those who haven't seen the parody video, you can check it out here. Sox fan or not, I find it to be an efficient parody of the commercial, which itself was well-designed. I don't understand why you can't enjoy both ads without being sensitive about either end of it (no matter your fandom).
  
  We need to find a way to balance all of this - where White Sox fans can be proud of their title from the recent past without (a) being annoying about it, (b) tossing it into an argument to prove that the White Sox are somehow better and (c) Cubs fans being pissy about the mere mention of it when it comes up.
• Gay vs. White Trash Bashing - If you go to a Cubs/Sox game, you're bound to see your share of a-hole wearing "Wrigley Field: The World's Biggest Gay Bar" or "Ozzie Mows My Lawn". Odds are high that the people wearing these shirts are the ones who eventually get kicked out of the park for excessive drunkeness that leads to fights where Cubs fans' sexuality & White Sox White Trash status become the main arguing points.
  
  Yes - I'm sure there's plenty of White Trash fans in the South Side fan base, just as I'm sure there's gays and lesbians who consider themselves Cubs fans. Perhaps I am over-analyzing this and giving the general public not enough credit, but why do we need to resort to attacking fan base's perceived social standing or sexuality preference, as if they have anything to do with baseball? If we're going to argue Cubs versus Sox, let's argue stats and head-to-head matchups instead.
• Parks: Half Empty/Half Falling Apart - I love when I hear Cubs fans comment on the attendance of both teams, as if that really plays a role in making your team better. I admit that it can be disappointing to see the stadium half empty in the thick of summer, especially when the team is still in a pennant race. However, for fans like myself, what a half-empty stadium really means is a much better chance to attend games in person for face-value or close to it. I don't think the Cubs drew as many fans last year as they have in past years, but in the past 20 years, a bad Cubs season will easily outdraw a bad (sometimes even a good or really good) Sox season. Good for them, but that's not a point to argue to make your team sound better.
  
  On the other hand, even though the stadium is in dire need of a remodeling, Wrigley Field stands as the beacon of Chicago Baseball parks. The White Sox blew a great chance when designing the new stadium, which opened in 1991. It was the last of stadiums built that was by most standards, a fairly average-looking stadium. Every stadium since the designing of our park, starting with Camden Yards in Baltimore, has been an outstanding park worthy of sellouts and bringing your family to (at least the ones I've visited). We have nothing to brag about with US Cellular Field - anyone who has visited at least one of the new stadiums (new being newer than the Cell) knows what I am talking about. Wrigley has the better atmosphere outside the stadium and the better stadium when it comes to historical significance.

There's some arguing points that I'm probably missing, but these are the main ones that annoy me when pointless arguments spring up among Chicago baseball fans. What I can't stress enough is that I, Brian Peter Vincent Bolek, have no hate towards Cubs, Cubs fans or anything relating to the Cubs."

I do not have any envy relating to them either. I don't care that they sell out their games, that people like to go to their games more than the Cell. In my eyes, they have nothing I really envy - with the exception of Theo Epstein, who I believe will turn the team around, starting with the building of their minor league system. I do think the Cubs will win a World Series in our lifetimes, and the parade for it will probably dwarf the crowd that the White Sox championship brought to the streets.

I wish the Cubs well in 2012 and beyond and want to express this so that maybe, just maybe, some of these pointless, inane arguments about an opponent who really only affects your team's season 6 times out of 162 can die down somewhat.

If we are going to have arguments, let's make them fact-based and not attacking stupid things like one's sexuality, social class or stadium. Also, White Sox fans - no Cubs Suck chants when walking down the ramp WHEN WE AREN'T PLAYING THE CUBS!

I won't be holding my breath for peaceful relations between White Sox and Cubs fans, but all I can do is hope. And share these words. I hope you got this far and see what I'm getting at.

Enjoy the 2012 season everyone.

Sincerely,

A White Sox Fan

We're Talkin' Baseball: 2012 MLB Preview

Updated 3-3-12

As far as offseasons go for baseball, this one had a little bit of everything.

The top two free agents in MLB move out of the NL Central much to the delight of the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Astros. Albert "El Hombre" Pujols signs a rich deal with the Angels, while Prince Fielder gets a king's salary from a Detroit Tiger squad that is looking to take the next step in the AL.

A current MVP was revealed to have a suspicious drug test back in December. Luckily for the Brewers, Ryan Braun will not have to face a 50-game suspension (at this current time anyways) after a panel overturned the tests on the grounds that the samples were mishandled.

Josh Hamilton continues to face his inner demons and may have cost himself a shot at a big contract after his drinking incident earlier this month.

Oh, and the Chicago side of things - each squad loses a pitcher to the Marlins. On the Sox end, most of us actually wanted our hurler (Buehrle) to stay in the city limits, but the length of contract in addition to playing for Ozzie Guillen again was enough to wisk him away from the South Side. Meanwhile, everyone knew Big Z would be gone. As a 4th or 5th starter on a loaded Marlins staff, Zambrano could give the Marlins the necessary pitching depth to compete with the Phillies for the NL East crown.

Aside from those moves, not much can be said about Chicago baseball teams' chances in 2012. Given his track record in Boston, Theo Epstein gives the Cubs a great chance to rebuild their minor league system. While they are a longshot to make the playoffs this year, I'd say that Cubs fans are probably feeling a little more optimistic about their future than the Sox, and that has everything to do with Epstein.

The White Sox were in a clear rebuilding mode this offseason, shipping away Quentin & last year's closer Sergio Santos while letting Buehrle sign with Miami. Chris Sale is the unknown as he enters his first year in the starting rotation, which features John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Phil Humber.

My friend Nick highlighted in his White Sox preview a few weeks back that the South Siders have a wide range of possibilities depending on how things fall into place. You could probably say that about any team, but I see his point. You have to figure Adam Dunn will get things somewhat figured out, but will it be his standard .250/40/100 remains to be seen. I believe Rios' one good season a couple years back was the exception in what has been a lackluster career given his hype as a prospect.

I don't know how much longer Konerko can keep these numbers up as he continues to get up there in age. The starting staff seems to be their best chance of success, with Sale being the X-factor. We already know Peavy will only start 20-25 games - he can be penciled in for a couple DL stints at random points in the year.

Vegas has the White Sox win total at about 74, which I believe they will go OVER. I see a 77-78 win season in the Sox future. Likely 3rd or 4th place finish.

Sorry, getting ahead of myself. Without further ado, here's my predictions for the MLB season.

All over/under victory totals are from 5dimes.com as of 3/3/12.

AL East - Favorites: Yankees; Other contenders: Red Sox, Rays. Thoughts: After entering 2011 the favorites following some offseason moves, the Red Sox find themselves projected behind the Yankees in the division entering this year. New York's big move in getting stealing Michael Pineda from the Mariners solidifies their staff. They will have enough offense to hold off the other squads. I say Rays take second and win the American League Wild Card.

AL East	O/U
NYY	93	Over	94-68
TB	86.5	Over	91-71
Bos	89.5	Under	87-75
Tor	80.5	Over	82-80
Balt	69.5	Under	65-97

Pick: Yankees (w/ Rays winning Wild Card) - rest of division in order (Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles)

AL Central - Favorites: Tigers; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: Out of the six divisions in MLB, this division has (by far) the biggest gap between first and second place (at least on paper). The Indians have a mid 80s win projection and are expected to finish 2nd behind the Tigers, with the Royals around 80 wins and the Sox behind them. I still think there's questions with the Tigers' pitching staff behind Verlander, but their stellar offense should be enough to win the division.

I think the Royals are heading in the right direction and would be my pick to be the surprise team of the AL this year. Not enough to take the division yet, but perhaps in 2013.

AL Central	O/U
Det	92.5	Over	94-68
KC	80.5	Over	83-79
Cle	78.5	Over	81-81
Sox	74.5	Over	78-84
Min	73.5	Under	69-93

Pick: Tigers - rest of division in order (Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins)

AL West - Co-Favorites: Rangers & Angels; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: The Angels made the biggest splashes by picking up Big Al and CJ Wilson in less than a 12 hour span.  Many are projecting them to overtake the Rangers for the division crown, but I still have my money on the Rangers. The Angels could take the Wild Card, but I'm a big fan of the Rays and what Joe Maddon has done in what was once a sesspool of a franchise and now is a perennial contender despite their small payroll.

AL West	O/U
Tex	91	Over	92-70
LAA	92.5	Under	90-72
Oak	71.5	Over	74-88
Sea	72	Under	67-95

Pick: Rangers - (w/ Angels winning Wild Card*) - rest of division in order (A's, Mariners)

*Pick Added w/ New Wild Card Format announced at end of February

Looks like I have the same AL playoffs as last year. Not what I set out to do, but that's how I see it.

On to the NL...

NL East - Favorites: Phillies; Other contenders: Nationals, Marlins, Braves. Thoughts: This division takes the crown as the most competitive division in baseball, edging out its AL directional counterpart. I like most of the moves that the Marlins made, and with Josh Johnson back in the rotation to join Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Zambrano, the Marlins have formed one of the better rotations in baseball. Not to mention they signed Reyes (who should still have a few good years in him) and have a nucleus of Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez, whose only worry is how he will adjust to moving to a new position.

Maybe I'm drinking the Nationals' Kool-Aid, but I have them as my NL breakout team. They also have a solid staff, when, if healthy, stacks up well to the Marlins. Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson are a solid 4 starters. I have enough faith in them to make them one of my new "Baseball Hats of 2012" in my lifelong goal of collecting a hat from every MLB franchise.

I don't know why, but I'm not sold on the Phillies. Ryan Howard, who is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in 2011 postseason, saw most of his key #s dipping in the past 3 years without the injury. Halladay and Lee will keep the Phillies in contention, but I see the Phillies being the 2012 version of the Red Sox - not so much collapse but failing to make playoffs despite heavy odds of making it*.

NL East	O/U
Mia	84.5	Over	92-70
Wash	83.5	Over	89-73
Phil	93.5	Under	88-74
Atl	86.5	Under	81-81
NYM	71.5	Over	72-90

Pick: Marlins (w/ Nationals & Phillies* winning the Wild Card). Rest of division in order (Braves, Mets) *Pick Added w/ new Wild Card format just announced

NL Central - Favorites: no clear favorite; Other contenders: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers. Thoughts: This division is the most wide open based on its lack of a clear favorite. Many expect the Cardinals to take a step back w/ the loss of Pujols and LaRussa, but they always seem to find a way to contend - also, Wainwright will be back. Likewise, Fielder's absence will be hard for the Brewers to fill, but they still have a solid pitching staff.

NL Central	O/U
StL	84	Over	87-75
Mil	84.5	Over	86-76
Cin	86.5	Under	80-82
Cubs	74.5	Under	72-90
Pitt	73.5	Under	69-93
Hou	64	Over	66-96

Pick: Cardinals - rest of division in order (Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros)

NL West - Favorites: Giants/D-Backs; Other contenders: Rockies, Dodgers. Thoughts: I don't have a good read on this division. No one saw the D-Backs' run coming last year - I see a slight regression to slightly above a .500 record. With Posey coming back and a solid pitching staff, I like the Giants (I'm a sucker for a good pitching rotation). I see them edging out the Dodgers, who have Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw & MVP candidate Matt Kemp leading them to a potential division crown that has eluded the franchise as of late.

NL West	O/U
SF	87.5	Over	89-73
LAD	81.5	Over	84-78
Ariz	86.5	Under	82-80
Colo	81	Under	78-84
SD	73.5	Under	68-94

Pick: Giants - rest of division in order (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres)


AL Championship: Yankees over Tigers
NL Championship: Marlins over Giants

World Series: Marlins over Yankees (but not because the NL gets home field with their All-Star victory). The Marlins are due for one of their random World Series runs and have a squad that can compete for one.

Random Individual Predictions (aka - R.I.P.):

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Det)...Sleeper: Nelson Cruz (Tex)
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Fla)...Sleeper: Buster Posey (SF)
AL Cy Young: David Price (TB)...Sleeper: Michael Pineda (NYY)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Phil)...Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
AL HR Leader: Jose Cabrera (Tor)...Sleeper: Adam Dunn (CHW)
NL HR Leader: Mike Stanton (Fla)...Sleeper: Jay Bruce (Cin)

With this being said, if you can find a way to fade all of these picks, be my guest. Feel free to offer up your own predictions.

Bolek. Out.

Alls Well That Ends: The Wirtz Effect and How a Death Can Help a Business

News just broke that Al Davis has died. My condolences to him and his family.

As far as his business goes, it might not be the worst thing to happen. In fact, it may help them out greatly, if the Bill Wirtz Effect comes into play.

As many Chicago Blackhawks fans remember all too well, the mismanagement of their beloved team caused the team to be an afterthought at best in one of the biggest hockey markets in America, and of course, one of the Original Six teams. Wirtz, notoriously known by many as "Dollar Bill", was considered by many to be the lynch pin behind this terrible stretch of Chicago hockey.

This stretch of time he was president (over 4 decades), he banned home games from being played on TV - for fear of fans not going to the games if they were able to stay home and watch them. I never understood this reasoning, seeing as though just about every team in every sport shows their teams' home games (I know that the NFL has restrictions on showing home games in markets where a game has not sold a certain percentage of tickets). If he was so smart in the business world with liquor distribution and real estate, you figured he might have seen other pro franchises having no problem with this.

Anyways, we all know the Blackhawks' story - they've become relevant again. People actually want to watch them now. Through their actions, the Wirtz kids have amended their father's wrongdoings to the franchise by promoting the Blackhawks through the addition of home games to TV, the Winter Classic to Wrigley Field in 2009 as well as introducing a successful annual convention for Blackhawks fans to attend. This idea came from the bright mind of John McDonough, former Cubs and now Blackhawks president. They went from being to the worst ran franchise in sports to one of the best in a few short years thanks to the actions of the younger Wirtzes and McDonough. Winning a Stanley Cup for the first time in a couple generations didn't hurt things either.

Enter Al Davis. While he didn't have the extended run of no championships/championship appearances like Wirtz did, Davis has become significantly more irrelevant in the past couple decades. His run of success in the 70s and 80s has devolved into the 90s and 2000s Raiders that have been pitiful for the most part. Aside from their playoff appearances in 2002 (where their playoff run ended in the infamous "Tuck Rule" game) and 2003 (where they got slaughtered by their former coach and the Tampa Bay Bucs, not much but bad can be said about the Raiders.

Since that brief run of success, here's a list of QBs who have started for the Raiders: Rick Mirer, Marques Tuiasosopo, Kerry Collins, Andrew Walter, Aaron Brooks, Josh McCown, Daunte Culpepper, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, and Jason Campbell. I feel like I'm missing someone...

Oh yeah, JaMarcus Russell! Say what you will about recent first overall picks being busts, but no doubt in my mind is Russell the worst first pick of all time. After three seasons with the Raiders in which he finished with a 7-18 record, he was released. But not before collecting a shit ton of money. I wouldn't be surprised if he's already burned through the money that he got from his $61 million ($32M guaranteed) contract from the Raiders in 2007.

Sadly, one of the best first round picks the Raiders made in the past 15 years was for A KICKER! Sebastian Janikowski, who recently tied the league record for longest field goal (63 yards) was a first round pick for the Raiders in 2000. A fucking kicker in the first round! This from the same team that drafted a punter (Ray Guy) as a first round pick - to date, the only punter ever drafted in the first round.

With Davis' death, I'm hoping that the Wirtz Effect happens and hopefully the Davis heirs are half as intelligent as the Wirtzes were following their dad's passing. The NFL is a lot better league when the Raiders are relevant. Davis was a great contributor to the NFL, but his time of relevance and success had passed.

Let's hope that his passing can lead to the Wirtz Effect for the Raiders and they can return to a proud franchise again.

So Much Action

This time of year is usually busy with baseball trades as underachieving teams look to unload payroll and build for the future and contenders look to add that extra piece to help them in their postseason runs. However, this year with NFL's lockout nullifying its own free agency, trades and draft signings up until this week, it's been an amazing week for anyone who is a fan of both baseball and football- and a very difficult week for newspapers trying to fit all of the transactions on one page.

As far as baseball deals go, I haven't been as interested in them as in most years. I think it's a combination of the NFL's action capturing my eye and the fact that I know the White Sox are not gonna be buyers this season. The one move they have made so far wasn't of the White Flag variety from the 1990s, but it certainly wasn't one that made you go rush out to buy your hypothetical 2011 playoff tickets either. We got a decent reliever (Jason Frasor - who happened to graduate from Oak Forest High School) and a minor leaguer for Edwin Jackson (who we weren't gonna resign) and Mark Teahan (who was eating money from the Sox like he was at Coney Island at the hot dog contest).

All I know is, in both sports, Philadephia fans cannot bitch about anything anytime soon. Signing Asomugha for the Eagles and getting Hunter Pence for the Phillies, Philadelphia fans couldn't have asked for a better combo of news in the span of one summer evening. If you want to go back 24 hours earlier, they also got another Pro-Bowl caliber cornerback and a draft pick in exchange for their backup QB. I don't know how it gets any better than that. Philadelphia is the new South Beach for athletes this summer. Luckily, none of them at this point have said they're taking their talents to Pennsylvania, but I don't think that has the same sex appeal as South Beach. If the NFC Championship Game does not feature at least the Eagles and/or the Packers, I'd be shocked.

With both sports in Chicago, the three teams collectively (White Sox, Cubs and Bears) are producing as much excitement as staring at sand. I already touched based on the White Sox, although their wheeling and dealing may not be done if we find a good deal for Quentin and/or Thornton. To me, trading either of them (especially Quentin) would seem White-Flagish. Our bullpen depth is good enough to survive Thornton's departure, but the way the Sox are hitting, Quentin's bat is needed if we are to overtake Cleveland and Detroit to take the division. I still have my doubts about the Sox whether we keep them or not. They've been too up and down this season for me to trust. And we're a Peavy injury away (let's face it, it's likely around the corner) from needing to depend on a minor league arm down the stretch.

The Cubs' mantra for this week is unloading whoever they can to interested teams. Unfortunately, there's so many bad contracts on the Cubs that it's hard to move these guys without offering teams $ in addition to letting guys go (i.e. Fukudome to the Indians). Ramirez appears to be softening on his stance to waive his no-trade clause, and I expect him to be dealt in the next 24 hours. Cubs fans should be glad that Sandberg wasn't offered the manager job, because I think fans of his might sour their opinion of him. No one man could have turned this turd into a golden ticket.

And the Bears, although not my team but the team I end up reading the most about because of local media, are lulling fans to sleep with their moves. Roy Williams was a one-hit wonder with the Lions, although it should be noted that his one-hit season for the Lions (2006 where he caught 82 passes for 1310 yards & 7 TDs) came when Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator. So perhaps that could be a bargain if you could even get 60 catches, 900-1000 yards and 5 TDs from him. Lots of fans seem upset at Olsen leaving, but he doesn't fit in the current Bears offense. You could blame Martz for that, as tight ends have never thrived in his offenses. Also, Kreutz might be signing with my boys (49ers), which I feel decent about as long as we don't overpay for him. Earlier this week, I saw the Bears' projected win total at 9.5. I'll take the under if any readers here wanna bet that they reach double digit wins.

The madness with NFL & MLB is just beginning. Hopefully, whatever team you follow doesn't do anything in the next day or two to let you down.

Missed Cuban Crisis: What could have been for the Cubs

Cubs fans can only dream of Cuban owning and leading their team to the promised land.

this will sound weird. Im laying in bed. with the trophy next me.#dreamcometrue.

    This was a tweet posted by Mark Cuban earlier this morning. Can't say I blame the man for enjoying his (and the Mavericks') first ever championship. His Mavericks have come a long way since he bought the team back in 2000. In the 20 years before he bought the team, the Mavs won only 40% of their regular season games, with only 1 division championship in that period of time (which was followed by a quick 3-1 first round exit in 1986). Since Cuban took over, they are now winning close to 70% of their regular season games and have made the playoffs every year in his reign - including two Finals appearances. Before this year, they had been known as a regular season team who faded come May - including a rare upset to the #8th seed Golden State Warriors in 2007.

      Around that time, the Tribune company was looking to sell the Cubs - a team that Cuban highly coveted. So much so, that Cuban was rumored to be the highest bidder for the team ($1.3 billion). However, baseball being the way it is (Selig and Reinsdorf being the guys with power), it wanted nothing to do with a younger new age owner that may look to shake up MLB's status quo. His bid was never really taken seriously even though he did enter the 2nd round of negotiations (The Ricketts family ended up with the winning bid). To say that the Ricketts' tenure of ownership  has been rocky would be an understatement, especially with this insistence for public funding to rebuild Wrigley seemingly his focus over the product he has been putting on the field. To be fair, the bad deals made were done before him. But he has done nothing to inspire the loyal fan base, a base whose faith is starting to crumble.

    I don't know how much better Cuban could have done with this roster. But I do know his track record with the Mavericks (and his other business ventures) has been nothing but successful. He would have provided hope for a franchise needing a non-traditional owner to improve its long-term chances of winning. Instead of their franchise being in the hands of such an owner, Cubs fans will have to hope that Ricketts can get his focus more on the team and less on a stadium financing deal.

     If the Cubs organization hopes to light up some victory Cuban cigars celebrating a World Series title, it will have to do so without Cuban.

     Until then, cheaper knock-offs will be smoked, and likely only in situations involving stress, not celebration.