Showing posts with label prop bets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prop bets. Show all posts

6/19/2013

Game 6-cess: The Greatest Non-Bulls NBA Game I've Ever Watched

So much happened in that Game 6 comeback win for the Miami Heat that I'm not even sure where to start, so I suppose I'll start from the most logical spot: the beginning...

Before getting into my analysis, for full disclosure, I had the following bets: Under 95.5 for the first half; Under 191.5 for the game; Under 184.5 for the game at 2/1 odds & Lebron scoring over 28 points

1st quarter - Father Time has been kind to the Spurs nucleus of Parker, Duncan & Ginobili, and was especially kind to the Big Fundamental in the first half. Duncan started the game as if he chugged from the fountain of youth, netting 12 of his 25 first half points in the quarter. Meanwhile, Lebron started out slow, deferring quite a bit to his teammates - Chalmers led the Heat w/ 10 points in the first quarter. Miami carried a two point lead into the second quarter.

2nd quarter - Still waiting for Lebron to take over some of the scoring load, but he was never able to get going. Boris Diaw - a man who couldn't even crack the Bobcats' starting lineup a couple years ago - was a thorn in the King's side. Meanwhile, Duncan continued to dominate as the Spurs carried a 50-44 lead into the half thanks to an 11-2 run to end the quarter.

At this point, I was starting to doubt the Miami Heat's chances. I was thinking they would need to have a Game 2/4 effort to have a chance.

3rd quarter - Lebron still being held in check, but the Heat are able to chip the lead down to 1 within the first 5:30 of the half. Then, the Spurs had a run that made just about everyone think that we were about to see Duncan get a ring where he could high-five Kobe with a hand-full of rings. A 14-2 run gave the Spurs some separation as they took a 75-65 lead heading into what most people thought would be the final NBA quarter of the 2012/13 season.

4th quarter - A quick 8-2 run less than two minutes into the final quarter gets Miami back in it, and no shock - Lebron had his hands on all three shots made (2 points, 2 assists). Before you knew it, Miami was able to grab the lead just as quickly as it took the Spurs to build it - a Ray Allen lay-up with just over six minutes left gave the Heat their first lead since the latter half of the second quarter.

But then, just as Lebron was dominating the fourth quarter to quiet all of his critics (7-for-10, 16 points in the quarter), a couple of ugly possessions involving Lebron (including what looked to be a lob that someone didn't read) threatened to end the Heat's chances of repeating as the Spurs went from three down to up five in a 90 second sequence.

Lebron somewhat made up for his errors on previous possessions by burying a three after Mike Miller grabbed LBJ's initial long-ball miss moments before. Down 2, they were fortunate that Kawhi Leonard split his free throws, setting up the drama of Ray Allen using the cold blood in his veins to nail a three to tie the game with five seconds left, which forced overtime.

In the overtime period, the teams exchanged baskets before the Heat took the lead for good with less than two minutes to go. After Ray Allen hit a pair of free throws, a Danny Green three was blocked by Chris Bosh (his second block of the overtime) to end the game.

Best Game Since the 1998 Finals

After reflecting, I still say this game holds up as the best game I've watched since Jordan ended his Bulls career and sixth title run with a Game 6 win over the Jazz.

The game had everything you'd want in an all-time game:

  • One last moment to remember Tim Duncan by. No matter what he did in the second half, his 25 first half points were more than he scored in any Finals game in the series before this. (By the way, just realized that Duncan's career started when I was a freshman in high school). A loottttttt has changed since then, but Duncan being a beast has not changed.
  • A game that had more runs than the aftermath of a chili cook-off. It was impossible to figure out when one run was about to end to give way for another to start.
  • A Joey Crawford-reffed game that had little-to-no major sightings from the controversial referee, whose appearance on a court is usually greeted with groans of game-fixing and disillusionment from some of the outlandish calls he has been known to make.
  • A Hall-of-Fame player playing like a Hall-of-Famer when it mattered. Lebron took ownership of the fourth quarter, which was nearly forgotten in a two-possession sequence that threatened the Heat's repeat chances. (The one thing I hated about Lebron was what the common complaint against him has been - complaining about calls. It wasn't the complaining that bothered me as much as his lack of effort in getting back to the defensive end. There's no excuse for that, especially in the Heat's most important game of the season - and arguably the most important game in the team's short-term history)
  • Another Hall of Famer, doing what he does best. Ray Allen's three in the corner with five seconds left tied the game at 95 to force overtime and essentially ended my chance of winning my under bet on the game. Due to the significance of the moment, I didn't care the slightest in my bet losing there. I jumped off of my living room couch, scaring one of the cats and probably Jen in the bedroom as she watched one of her reality shows.
I don't know what will happen in Game 7. I think the Heat will win, if only because this loss for the Spurs reminds me of the 2011 Texas Rangers, who had a World Series title at their fingertips, a strike away several times before the Cardinals and David Freese took the moment away from them.

The Spurs seem like too good of a team to have this game mentally affect them going into Game 7. In the back of their minds, they have to know that this is one of the (if not the) last times they will have a chance to win a title together again. I think Pop will have them ready to play, but I'm not sure that will be enough. Losing will not spoil their dynasty in my eyes (4 titles since 1999 is nothing to sneeze at).

The Hated King

I am anticipating a legendary Lebron Game 7 performance that will likely get ignored by many people who hate Lebron - which seems to be everyone in Chicago but me. I'm not sure if people are still mad at Lebron for how he handled The Decision, if it's because Lebron's Heat have eliminated the Bulls in two of the last three postseasons, if it's Bulls fans that still have a hard-on for MJ and need to compare him to Lebron and his lack of rings every chance they get, or if it's just Lebron's flopping personality (every team, even the Bulls, has someone who whines about fouls - but yeah, I get that Lebron doesn't need to do it). The last part would be the most acceptable reason in my eyes, although it still doesn't mean you can't appreciate greatness when you see it as a fan of a sport.

Whatever happens in Game 7, I find it hard to believe that it will match the overall intensity, desperation and stars maximizing their star power that Game 6 had.

5/20/2013

At the Quarter Pole - MLB So Far

While the All-Star game is when most baseball analysts start breaking down the baseball season so far and what is to come, but I like to break baseball up into quarters. Much like high school, except this class has way more fun numbers to play with. And gambling.

Quarters tend to give a decent (although not entirely accurate) model into how we should expect the season to play out. Here were the standings last year after May 20th. Bolded w/o italics indicates the eventual division champ; bolded w/ italics indicates Wild Card entry:

2012 MLB Standings after May 20th

Balt - 27-15
TB - 25-17
Tor - 23-19
NYY - 21-20
Bost - 20-21

Cle 23-18
CWS - 21-21
Det - 20-21
KC - 16-24
Min - 14-27

Tex - 26-16
Oak - 21-21
Sea - 19-24
LAA - 18-24

Atl - 26-16
Wash - 24-17
NYM - 22-19
Mia - 22-19
Phil - 21-21

Stl - 22-19
Cin - 21-19
Pit - 19-22
Hou - 18-23
Mil - 17-24
Cubs - 15-26

LA - 28-13
SF - 21-20
Ari - 19-23
SD - 16-26
Col - 15-25

The most fascinating stuff about these standings? Two things:


  1. None of the teams that eventually won the division were leading at this point of the year, although 4 of the 6 that were leading did end up with all of the 4 wild card entries into the playoffs. Three of the eventual division champs overcame a 5+ game deficit with the division leader at this juncture.
  2. Four of the six current division leaders were also the leaders at this point last year. Arizona and Boston are the only differences.


So for those of you penciling in all the division winners to hold on, remember that the season in long and that none of the division winners last year at this point held on to win the division. I'm willing to bet that at least one of the current division leaders is destined to be at the top when the season ends.

Current division leaders: NYY (0.5 games up); Cleveland (2 games up); Texas (6.5 games up); Atlanta (2.5 games up); St. Louis (2.5 games up); Arizona (1 game up). My guess? Texas & Atlanta hold up.

As was stated in my predictions blog, I made several bets for the 2013 season. Here's the predictions blog for reference  and also my official bets for 2013 before the season began (note: I added  $15 more to my Indians division bet at +1450 a few weeks ago). Let's have some fun with these:
  • Raise your hand if you bet on Houston to win over 59.5 games *raises hand in disgust, in process of flushing a Benjamin in the toilet*. Currently, Houston is 12-32. In order to reach 60 wins, they need to go 48-70 down the stretch. I don't feel good about the start, but I have to remember that only requires a 40.6% win percentage down the stretch. I put my chances of winning this bet at around 30%.
  • I laid heavy juice on Tampa Bay (Over 86) & Cleveland (Over 77.5) and also threw a little cash on each to win their divisions. So far, Tampa is right around the pace required (23-20 record ~ 86.65 wins with the current percentage), while Cleveland is two clear of the rest of the AL Central, sitting pretty at 25-17. Tampa needs to go 64-55 to win my bet, while Cleveland can go 53-67 and still win me my wins bet. I believe Tampa's best ball is coming - their ERA (4.42) will only get better. Even with a slight regression in hitting, I think Tampa still has a good/great chance of winning this division. Obviously I feel better about Cleveland's chances to cash the win bet at the moment, but the Indians have blown good starts the past few years, so I'm not holding my breath. Still though, a nice start. I put my chances of winning the Tampa wins bet at around 54%; division bet at 30%. Meanwhile, I put my chances of winning Cleveland wins bet at around 70%; division bet at 35%. Detroit should still win the division, but Cleveland's bats could carry them to division crown.
  • San Diego was my other over bet (74.5 wins). A slow start had me doubting this bet, but a resurgence in the offense has increase my confidence in this ten-fold (14-8 in their last 22 games). They may only be 20-23, but I do think San Diego has a great shot to be a sleeper team to make the Wild Card. In order to reach the wins total, the Padres need to go 55-64 down the stretch. I believe they will crack 80 wins and contend for a Wild Card, so my confidence in this bet is at 70%
  • My only under bet was the Blue Jays going under 89 wins. A 17-26 starts means that Toronto would need to go 73-46 (61%) while playing in baseball's best division. Needless to say, I put my chances of winning this bet at 85% (since anything can happen, but I feel really good about this).
  • Other division bet I made was on the Phillies, who sport a 21-23 record and sit 4.5 games back of the Braves. I don't give the Phils much better than a 15-20% chance to win this.
  • Player props - Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes most HRs in MLB. It took Bruce forever to hit a home run (now he has 5), while Cespedes just nailed his 8th. They both trail Justin Upton (14) by a significant amount. However, a little streak for either of these guys can put them right in it. My chance of winning either of these bets is about 2-3%.


3/31/2013

B-Bo's MLB Bets (Futures & Daily Bets)

Daily Bets (4-1 thru 4-7) - (16-20, -288.20)

4/1 (1-3, -$122)

NY/Bos Lester/Sabathia Under 8 (57/50) L - 9th inning Boston runs
Chi/KC Sale/Shields Under 7 (48/40) W - 1-0 Sale win
Phil/Atl Hamels (Philly) -110 (55/50) L - trailed throughout
Ariz/StL Kennedy/Wainwright Over 9 (50/50) L - narrow loss

4/2 (0-2, -137.30)

Balt/TB Hammel/Price Under 7 (61.50/50) L - McGee melts in 7th inning
Tor/Cle Dickey/Masterson Over 8.5 (75.80/65) L - no bullpen runs allowed


4/3 (3-2, 50.00 )
Tex/Hou Ogando/Humber Under 8.5 (69/60) - Astros shut out. Look to bet unders of teams coming off near perfect game/no hit bids
Chi/KC Peavy/Santana Over 7.5 (60/63) - Sox can't score w/o HR; too many runners left in scoring position in late innings
Det/Min Sanchez/Correia Over 8.5 (60/60.60) - Never had a chance
Wandy (Pitt) -133 (79.80/60) - Well-pitched game. Wandy a Cub killer
LA/SF Beckett/Lincecum Over 7 (61/50) - Strong offense vs starters. No more runs after that (5-3)

4/4 (5-1, 282.90 )

ChC/Pitt Wood (ChC) +130 (50/65)
ChC/Pitt Under 7 (40/40) - Wood pitched well; Marmol did what he could to blow it. Avoid Cubs games for most part!
KC/ChW Guthrie (KC) +114 (65/72.10) - Guthrie was sharp. Sox no HRs = Sox loss
SD/NYM Stults (SD) +136 (50/68) - Lots of LOBs, but SD never trailed. Held on in 9th.
Mia/Wash LeBlanc (Mia) +200 (40/80) - worth a shot. Mia got spanked.
Phil/Atl Lee (Phil) +113 (60/67.80) - might be the last time Lee gets + anything for a while. A gem.

4/5 (4-3, 96)

SD/Col Marquis (SD) +140 (60/84) - Not enough offense; 3rd inning error is the difference (3 unearned)
KC/Phil Davis (KC) +107 (60/64.20) - KC 13 unanswered runs after falling behind 4-0 early
Min/Balt Hendrix/Arrieta Under 9 (54/50) - Pretty much DOA in the mid-innings despite a pair of scoreless innings to start. Davis stays red hot to open the lead up for the Orioles.
Bos/Tor Doubront (Bos) +135 (60/81) - Never trailed. Decent bullpen work.
Mia/NYM Sanabia (Mia) +139 (60/83.40) - Bounced back nicely after getting swept. Almost blew 6-0 lead.
Mil/Ari Lohse (Mil) -131 (78.60/60) - 2 runs allowed on a wild pitch the difference. Crazy.
Sea/CHW Beaven/Quintana Over 8 (66/60) - Quintana implodes. League has caught up to him. Fade away.

4-6 (1-4, -215.30 )
Sea/Chi King Felix (Sea) -129 (90.30/70) - Windy day. King Felix threw one mistake and Rios made him pay.
Bos/Tor Lackey/Happ Under 9 - (60/61.80) - Great outing for Happ. Lackey got hurt, might be out for year. 
LAA/Texas Harrison (Tex) -124 (62/50) - Harrison roughed up in 1st. Bet never had a chance. 
SF/StL - Vogelsong/Miller Under 7 - (63/60) - Big 5th for StL is basically the difference. 

SD/Col  - Ross (SD)+129 - (60/77.40) - Garland pitched well in first start in two years. SD couldn't take advantage of bases loaded, no out in 4th.

4-7 (2-5, -242.20 )
ChW/Sea (Sale/Iwakuma) Under 7.5 - (69/60) - After rough first, both settled down, 4-3 in extras
Bos/Tor Lester +125 (60/75) - Total Red Sox domination. Least sweat bet so far this year
Wash/Cin Under 7 (Strasburg/Cueto) (72/60) - Both roughed up early. Teased a push, but lost in 6th.
TB/Cle Under 7 (Price/Masterson) (75/60) - Price got rocked. No shot.
StL/SF Under 6.5 (Wainright/Cain) (64.20/60) - 9 run fourth for StL - no shot.
Col/SD Over 10.5 (Chacin/Volquez) (66/60) - No help from SD. Col helped in late innings to no avail.
LAA  (Weaver) +129 vs Texas (Darvish) (100/129) - top half of first showed promise. After that, it was all Texas.


2/02/2013

Prop-aring for the Super Bowl & The Madness of Super Bowl Betting

Here are a few questions to ponder:

  1. How long will Alicia Keys take to finish the national anthem?
  2. Will she add or forget any words when she is singing it?
  3. Will Jay-Z appear on stage with Beyonce at some point during her halftime performance?
  4. Will Beyonce's hair be curled, waved or crimped?
And while you're pondering them, you can also gamble on them. Yes - online sportsbooks offer gamblers a chance to win (or likely lose) a ton of money on the craziest stuff you can think of.

Now of course, there's close to a thousand props for people who use 5dimes.com to bet on (921 to be exact), ranging from the non-football bets above to bets such as a team's exact margin of victory and a lot in between.

Some of the larger odds:

  • If you think there will be a score within the first 30 seconds of the game, you can throw a few dollars on that at 50/1 odds.
  • If you think both QB's first passes will be interceptions, you can bet that at 400/1 odds (i.e. $10 nets you $4,000)
  • If you think the score will be tied at the half and at the end of the fourth quarter, you get those odds at 55/1.
  • If you believe the first score (like in last year's Super Bowl) will be a safety, you're getting 100/1 odds.
  • Betting on San Fran to win by exactly 41 points, you get 550/1 odds. Betting Baltimore to win by that same margin is a 2000/1 proposition. (Most exact margins of victory pay the most, but these are the highest).

Now, some of the ones I am considering:

  1. Total missed FGs: Over 1 +275: Including the postseason, Justin Tucker missed only 3 of 35 field goals in his rookie year. However, the veteran on the other sideline has been awful. David Akers has missed 14 of 44 field goal attempts, including a miss in 10 of 18 games. He had 4 multi-miss FG games. I think this offers value, as you can get at least a push if there's only one miss.
  2. LaMichael James: Over 5.5 carries/25.5 rushing yards: I've lumped these two together. I believe that the Niners' best chance to win will be on the ground. James is fresh, and with little game tape of the Oregon speedster, I believe Harbaugh (the Jim version) will have him featured more. With the Ravens having allowed 125+ rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, I believe there will be plenty of opportunities for Gore and James to get theirs.
  3. Score in first 4 minutes (+270): San Fran has had a tendency in both postseason games to start slow, with an early pick-6 by Green Bay and a quick first drive by Atlanta in the NFC title game to open up the scoring. Don't be surprised (if Balt gets ball first) for Flacco to go deep to Torrey Smith to start the game.
  4. Michael Crabtree MVP (+1800): I made the case for Crabtree in a previous blog. If San Fran wins thanks to Kaepernick, there's a decent chance he's been targeting Crabtree. As long as Crabtree grabs the majority of Kaep's yards & TDs, I think he has good value at 18/1, as long as Kaepernick doesn't run for 50+ yards as well.

101 Bets

In case you missed last year's feature, I interviewed a couple of friends on their annual tradition of betting on 101 separate props. This year was no exception to their betting adventures. The Man of Little Stature won the coin toss and made his first pick "The Football Travels Over 1499.5 yards", which has become his new favorite bet over "the pylon gets knocked down".

Here's a list of their bets for this year. This...is how professionals do it:

  LM TS
1. Heads/tails: Tails  
2. Calling team picks:   Tails
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss: Loses  
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers:   Chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1499.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards + successful FG yards): Over  
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:   Run
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: Pass  
8. First score, TD/FG:   FG
9. First team to score:   SF
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception: Int  
11. Which team commits the first turnover:   Balt
12. Which team commits more turnovers: Balt  
13. First team to take a timeout:   SF
14. First team to challenge play:   SF
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5:   Under
16. First quarter points, over/under 9.5: Over  
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 14:   Under
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 10: Over  
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5:   Over
20. Total points for game, over/under 47.5:   Under
21. All timeouts used in the first half: No  
22. All timeouts used in second half:   No
23. First penalty committed by which team: Balt  
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards:   Under
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC:   Balt
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC: Balt  
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
28. Most team passing yards:   Balt
29. Most team rushing yards:   SF
30. Most team passing TDs:   Balt
31. Most team rushing TDs:   SF
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards: SF  
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC: SF  
34. More FG/TD in game: TD  
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game: Yes  
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half: No  
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:   Yes
38. Will there be a safety in the game:   No
39. Will there be an OT: No  
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion:   No
     
41. Last team to score: SF  
42. Last team to score win/lose:   Win
43. Anyone ejected from game:   No
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s: Under  
45. First/second half, most points scored:   2H
46. Which team will record more sacks:   SF
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores: No  
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC:   SF
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards: Over  
50. Which team will score the longest TD: SF  
51. Will there be a defensive TD:   No
52. Will there be a special teams TD:   No
53. Which team will kick the longest FG:   Balt
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick: No  
55.Will game be tied after 0-0:   Yes
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock): Over  
57. Winner of Super Bowl: SF  
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5:   Over
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC:   Balt
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first:   TD
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first:   TD
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble: No  
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble:   No
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers): SF  
65. Which team will intercept more balls: SF  
66. NFC QB first pass complete? Yes  
67. AFC QB first pass complete? Yes  
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands:   Stands
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC: SF  
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC:   SF
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC: SF  
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC:   Balt
75. Which team punts from deepest spot: Balt  
76. Which team kicks for more points:   Balt
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC:   Balt
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5: Under  
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards: Balt  
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5: Under  
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards:   Over
     
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards:   No
83. Will there be a missed FG:   No
84. Last score, FG/TD: TD  
85. Will there be a red zone turnover: No  
86. Who places more punts inside the 20: SF  
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game: Yes  
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty: No  
89. Will there be a blocked FG: No  
90. Will there be a blocked punt:   No
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass:   No
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker: No  
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC:   Balt
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC: SF  
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards:   Under
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards: Under  
97. Is a double digit lead ever established:   No
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead: SF  
99. Who has more time of possession:   SF
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QBs:   SF
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QBs: Kickers  



2/03/2012

Betting 101: An Insight Into Super Bowl Betting Madness

Betting 101 is now in session.

Remember that last class where I said you shouldn't gamble if you haven't started already? Yeah....about that.

Most of my friends around me stayed in the classroom, looking for a lesson in how true degenerates gamble away their hard-earned money.

Enter Professors Little Man & Tim.

Betting 101 isn't a class to them - it's a lifestyle. Specifically, betting 101 Super Bowl props.

Yes, 101 separate bets. Thank God it's just 101 separate 1 dollar bets, with the biggest winner in their 5-6 year run of betting this being about $6, according to Professor Little Man.

In their run of doing this, the prop semantics and some of the props themselves have been refined. I can vouch for these gentlemen not messing around when it comes to gambling.

Have you ever met anyone who has wagered on games of Madden on a video game system? With a point spread created for the game by the gamblers themselves? Well, if you have met either of these gentlemen, then you have met a degenerate gambler. (Not like I have room to talk, as I am the proud winner of once selecting the correct infant in a baby race at the halftime of a Bulls game).

After a two-day process of picking props on a rotating basis (Little Man won the right to pick the first prop - funny enough, by winning the "coin flip"), I asked the gentlemen some questions about their degenerate gambling ways through Facebook messaging:


Please note that this is unedited for some salty language, which you should know is coming when Tim (and references of Tim) is involved


B-Bo Knows: When and how did you come up with this idea to do 101 bets?

Tim: I'm trying to look at past super bowls to narrow down the time. Feels like 2004, car vs ne wouldn't be surprised if it was earlier though. And as for as coming up with the idea...as we all know props are extremely popular this time of year and we want to go above and beyond and pick a ridiculous number.

LM: ...standby to receive narrative...

Tim: Haha, I knew Little Man would be good at this...

LM: Well, you see there laddy, in the irrationally exuberant times of the early new millennium, when cares were light and money freely disposable, and particular people unburdened by the soul-dimming responsibilities of adulthood, there was a compulsive gambling atmosphere that flourished deep underground. That's not to imply that there were hipster gamblers; the gambling literally took place underground, in the basements of houses occupied- but naturally not owned- by the gambling participants. This was back in the heyday of compulsive small-time gambling, when gambling wasn't about money, but about the act itself; a time when quarters were won and lost on simulated Madden Games, and $100 phones were smashed to oblivion in disproportionate response to losing bets on said Madden games. When Super Bowl squares were applied to a regular season NBA basketball game, and then to every regular season NBA basketball game for an entire year. When proposition bets were picked just for the novelty of being untraditional and offered the best free-form medium to express your inner gambling chi. It was only in this type of atmosphere that such a tradition could have been born: 101 Super Bowl Proposition Bets.

101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because it's the single biggest sporting event in world. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because it's our small token of appreciate to the gods of sport and competition. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because professional gamblers don't have the stomach or the stamina to see it through. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, each for a dollar, because it's not about getting money, it's about getting money you didn't have to work for. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets: Just because.


B-Bo: Awesome response. What the 8 to 10 regular readers of B-Bo Knows will want to know is - why the 1-2 year break in the 101 bets?

Tim: It basically stopped because of time constraints, couldn't find a common time to get this through this long process.








And back to the Madden bet, with the breaking of the phone...my team could have ran out the clock but apparently had Andy Reid coaching them and did not have proper time management. So I lost my cool and spiked that phone like I scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Booze may have been a factor, but I rarely touch the stuff.
LM: #TrueStory
Yeah, it was very tiring renegotiating the bets that needed to be changed every year, which is why it stopped for 3 years. This is why we moved towards more generic prop bets (NFC starting RB, for example, or team leader in tackles) rather than deciding beforehand which players to specifically name.
Tim: Yea...looking up Nielsen ratings and commercial info the following days was also tiring and time consuming.
B-Bo: Does it always take about two days to make these picks? And how long are we talking from game's end till you're done grading the bets?
LM: It used to take through the next day, or sometimes longer depending on when the Nielsen ratings became available. We used to have a prop for that.
Tim: Normally we would have a block of time and the bets would take about a few hours. Grading was helped out by the fact that we pay attention very closely to the game and score what we can during the game. And then like Little Man just said the rest usually gets cleaned up the next day.
LM: It used to take about 6-8 hours to negotiate new props and make the picks. this year it was spread out over a few days, but I'd say the elapsed time devoted to this was probably about 4 hours. I anticipate it taking about 2-3 in the future.
Tim: Yep, betting on it longer than it takes to play the game, that was the insane part of this in previous years.
LM: And part of the charm.
Tim: Yea, it was, unfortunately we don't have that type of time anymore.
B-Bo: Back to the Madden bet - I remember witnessing the breaking of the phone on a bet worth a George Washington coin, and I can vouch that drinking is out of Tim's character (I cannot vouch for this). I know there's been some games you've watched together when doing these bets. Do you guys show the same intensity for these 101 bets as the Madden simulation?
Tim: Definitely. One Super Bowl moment I wish he was there for was the NE-Philadelphia game. The infamous coin flip as I like to remember it. When a 10 year old portly (cant confirm he was portly) little bastard came out to do the coin "flip". Flip is in quotations because it wasn't really a flip. The coin did not make one rotation and I was fucking steaming. Little Man laughing at me through text didn't help.
LM: My personal favorite is the Burger King commercial moment. BK had been running football ads all year of the King scoring TDs, rushing TDs, interceptions run back for TD, everything, and the commercials were pervasive, several per game in like every market. So we had a prop, the BK King scores ov/un 1.5 TDs during the SB. Tim took the over and said, "The King is finding that end zone." Three quarters go by and there's no King, then finally, in the fourth, near the end of the game, a BK spot, and it's the weirdest commercial I've ever seen. Virtually unrelated to football. All I really remember is the King was swinging on a rope swing while a model brought him chicken or something. Tim was pissed, and I was laughing uncontrollably. "You spent a million and a half on that piece of shit?"
Tim: That commercial was ridiculous, what a piece of shit. Made not eat burger king for years....or maybe it was the food that did that.
B-Bo: I don't think you could be blamed for avoiding it in either regard. I'm guessing there's a little adjustment to these bets on a yearly basis?
Tim: Yea, with it being generic now there will be even less. We usually double check the wording to so there is no gray area on anything. So the language changes a little each year.
But in the past when specific player props were in there then there would be a good amount of changes.
B-Bo: You guys say it takes about a couple hours or so to make these bets. Do either of you do any extensive research on them before making your selections? Any strategy involved?
LM: I do some, not much research.
Tim: Same here, very little research. As far as picking is concerned we both pretty much know the strengths of these teams now.
B-Bo: To wind up this unofficial first "interview" of B-Bo Knows, I'd like to hear both of your thoughts on my prediction of Little Man winning the 101 bets 57-44. (I imagine some ties will ensue, but I refuse to pick ties)
Tim: I tend to agree with it. This year there were bets I didn't mind getting the Giants. And I kind of let him take those over more so than I have in the past. I wish I would have stopped it in hindsight, it just kind of got away from me at some point. But if the Giants have a big day, that number could be flipped.
LM: I'm going to predict 101-0.
And my secondary guess will be 52-49 in my favor.
Tim: Haha...if someone gets ejected, you will see a world class meltdown.
Thank you to the two gentlemen who shared their insight into the madness that is "101 Super Bowl Proposition Bets". For those curious on the props and their bets, here they are below. The ones highlighted in color were chosen by the person, with the other getting the other side by default.

For those interested, Little Man's first pick was "No" to there being a successful onside kick; the last category left, he chose New England getting more interceptions.

Feel free to browse the material below. Class dismissed.

Tim Little Man
1. Heads/tails: heads tails
2. Calling team picks: tails heads
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss: wins loses
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers: defer chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1399.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards): under over
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: run pass
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: pass run
8. First score, TD/FG: FG TD
9. First team to score: NYG NE
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception: int fumble
11. Which team benefits from the first turn over: NE NYG
12. Which team commits more turnovers: NE NYG
13. First team to take a timeout: NE NYG
14. First team to challenge play: NE NYG
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5: under over
16. First quarter points, over/under 13.5: under over
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 13.5: under over
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 13.5: over under
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5: over under
20. Total points for game, over/under 55: under over
21. All timeouts used in the first half: yes no
22. All timeouts used in second half: yes no
23. First penalty committed by which team: NYG NE
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards: under over
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC: NE NYG
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC: NE NYG
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC: NYG NE
28. Most team passing yards: NYG NE
29. Most team rushing yards: NYG NE
30. Most team passing TDs: NYG NE
31. Most team rushing TDs: NYG NE
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards: NE NYG
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC: NE NYG
34. More FG/TD in game: FG TD
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game:A74 no yes
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half: no yes
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:A76 yes no
38. Will there be a safety in the game: no yes
39. Will there be an OT: no yes
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion: yes no
41. Last team to score: NE NYG
42. Last team to score win/lose: lose win
43. Anyone ejected from game: no yes
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s: over under
45. First/second half, most points scored: 2nd 1st
46. Which team will record more sacks: NYG NE
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores: no yes
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC: NE NYG
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards: over under
50. Which team will score the longest TD: NYG NE
51. Will there be a defensive TD: no yes
52. Will there be a special teams TD: no yes
53. Which team will kick the longest FG: NYG NE
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick: yes no
55.Will game be tied after 0-0: yes no
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock): under over
57. Winner of Super Bowl: NE NYG
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5: over under
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC: NYG NE
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first: TD int
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first: TD int
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble: no yes
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble: yes no
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers): NE NYG
65. Which team will intercept more balls: NYG NE
66. NFC QB first pass complete? no yes
67. AFC QB first pass complete? no yes
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC: NE NYG
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC: NYG NE
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands: stand reverse
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC: NYG NE
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC: NE NYG
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC: NYG NE
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC: NYG NE
75. Which team punts from deepest spot: NE NYG
76. Which team kicks for more points: NE NYG
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC: NYG NE
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5: under over
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards: NE NYG
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5: under over
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards: over under
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards: no yes
83. Will there be a missed FG: yes no
84. Last score, FG/TD: FG TD
85. Will there be a red zone turnover: yes no
86. Who places more punts inside the 20: NYG NE
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game: no yes
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty: yes no
89. Will there be a blocked FG: yes no
90. Will there be a blocked punt: no yes
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass: yes no
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker: no yes
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC: NYG NE
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC: NYG NE
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards: under over
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards: under over
97. Is a double digit lead ever established: no yes
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead: NE NYG
99. Who has more time of possession: NE NYG
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QB: QB kickers
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QB: kickers QB