At the Quarter Pole - MLB So Far

While the All-Star game is when most baseball analysts start breaking down the baseball season so far and what is to come, but I like to break baseball up into quarters. Much like high school, except this class has way more fun numbers to play with. And gambling.

Quarters tend to give a decent (although not entirely accurate) model into how we should expect the season to play out. Here were the standings last year after May 20th. Bolded w/o italics indicates the eventual division champ; bolded w/ italics indicates Wild Card entry:

2012 MLB Standings after May 20th

Balt - 27-15
TB - 25-17
Tor - 23-19
NYY - 21-20
Bost - 20-21

Cle 23-18
CWS - 21-21
Det - 20-21
KC - 16-24
Min - 14-27

Tex - 26-16
Oak - 21-21
Sea - 19-24
LAA - 18-24

Atl - 26-16
Wash - 24-17
NYM - 22-19
Mia - 22-19
Phil - 21-21

Stl - 22-19
Cin - 21-19
Pit - 19-22
Hou - 18-23
Mil - 17-24
Cubs - 15-26

LA - 28-13
SF - 21-20
Ari - 19-23
SD - 16-26
Col - 15-25

The most fascinating stuff about these standings? Two things:

1. None of the teams that eventually won the division were leading at this point of the year, although 4 of the 6 that were leading did end up with all of the 4 wild card entries into the playoffs. Three of the eventual division champs overcame a 5+ game deficit with the division leader at this juncture.
2. Four of the six current division leaders were also the leaders at this point last year. Arizona and Boston are the only differences.

So for those of you penciling in all the division winners to hold on, remember that the season in long and that none of the division winners last year at this point held on to win the division. I'm willing to bet that at least one of the current division leaders is destined to be at the top when the season ends.

Current division leaders: NYY (0.5 games up); Cleveland (2 games up); Texas (6.5 games up); Atlanta (2.5 games up); St. Louis (2.5 games up); Arizona (1 game up). My guess? Texas & Atlanta hold up.

As was stated in my predictions blog, I made several bets for the 2013 season. Here's the predictions blog for reference  and also my official bets for 2013 before the season began (note: I added  $15 more to my Indians division bet at +1450 a few weeks ago). Let's have some fun with these:

• Raise your hand if you bet on Houston to win over 59.5 games *raises hand in disgust, in process of flushing a Benjamin in the toilet*. Currently, Houston is 12-32. In order to reach 60 wins, they need to go 48-70 down the stretch. I don't feel good about the start, but I have to remember that only requires a 40.6% win percentage down the stretch. I put my chances of winning this bet at around 30%.
• I laid heavy juice on Tampa Bay (Over 86) & Cleveland (Over 77.5) and also threw a little cash on each to win their divisions. So far, Tampa is right around the pace required (23-20 record ~ 86.65 wins with the current percentage), while Cleveland is two clear of the rest of the AL Central, sitting pretty at 25-17. Tampa needs to go 64-55 to win my bet, while Cleveland can go 53-67 and still win me my wins bet. I believe Tampa's best ball is coming - their ERA (4.42) will only get better. Even with a slight regression in hitting, I think Tampa still has a good/great chance of winning this division. Obviously I feel better about Cleveland's chances to cash the win bet at the moment, but the Indians have blown good starts the past few years, so I'm not holding my breath. Still though, a nice start. I put my chances of winning the Tampa wins bet at around 54%; division bet at 30%. Meanwhile, I put my chances of winning Cleveland wins bet at around 70%; division bet at 35%. Detroit should still win the division, but Cleveland's bats could carry them to division crown.
• San Diego was my other over bet (74.5 wins). A slow start had me doubting this bet, but a resurgence in the offense has increase my confidence in this ten-fold (14-8 in their last 22 games). They may only be 20-23, but I do think San Diego has a great shot to be a sleeper team to make the Wild Card. In order to reach the wins total, the Padres need to go 55-64 down the stretch. I believe they will crack 80 wins and contend for a Wild Card, so my confidence in this bet is at 70%
• My only under bet was the Blue Jays going under 89 wins. A 17-26 starts means that Toronto would need to go 73-46 (61%) while playing in baseball's best division. Needless to say, I put my chances of winning this bet at 85% (since anything can happen, but I feel really good about this).
• Other division bet I made was on the Phillies, who sport a 21-23 record and sit 4.5 games back of the Braves. I don't give the Phils much better than a 15-20% chance to win this.
• Player props - Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes most HRs in MLB. It took Bruce forever to hit a home run (now he has 5), while Cespedes just nailed his 8th. They both trail Justin Upton (14) by a significant amount. However, a little streak for either of these guys can put them right in it. My chance of winning either of these bets is about 2-3%.

B-Bo's MLB Preview - 2013

Note: I've changed my mind on a few of my teams since my teams who will surprise blog from last month.

There's a few things I've learned about baseball over the years.

1. Teams that spend the most haven't been winning the most - Last year, the Angels went all-in with huge contracts for Albert Pujols & C.J. Wilson, but failed to make the playoffs. The Marlins did the same, signing Jose Reyes to a huge deal and also spent some nice dough on Mark Buehrle & Heath Bell, only to eventually trade all of the following as well as just about every good Marlins player not named Giancarlo Stanton between July and November. And look at what all that spending has done for the Yankees since 2001 - only one championship.
   
   So for everyone to go all-in on the other LA team as a sexy World Series pick is presumptuous. Yes, they have bolstered their squad with some nice moves like Greinke. Kershaw and Greinke in a short series will be a tough order, but can Greinke stay healthy? He has inflammation in his right elbow (yes, his pitching arm) - so he is a risky pick for fantasy baseball owners in my opinion. The lineup will be stacked once Hanley Ramirez is healthy (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley join Matt Kemp to form a formidable punch).
   
   The Dodgers may make the playoffs, but spending big lately hasn't equated to winning it all, or even making the playoffs as illustrated by some of the examples above
   
   The same goes for the Blue Jays, who seemingly traded for an All-Star team with all the players they picked up from the Marlins. I'm more weary of the Jays than the Dodgers though. Based on career splits, I don't think Dickey and Encarnacion will come close to matching their 2012 output. Toronto should be better than last year, but I'm not ready to crown them division champs this year.
2. We're always due for a couple surprise teams to be in playoff contention the first half of the year, with likely one of them to fade and the other to continue surprising and coming close to or even making the playoffs.  Last year's examples were the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles, the former fading fast in the second half of the year thanks to a shaky bullpen, while the O's found a way to win just about every single close game en route to winning one of the two wild card berths, even having a chance to win the AL East going into the final day of the regular season - something no one could see coming.
   
   I'll make a couple predictions on the teams who will fit this bill this season: Cleveland Indians and San Diego Padres. The former is in probably the weakest division in baseball - I say the Indians will finish within 5-6 games of the Tigers and be close to a wild card berth (hell, I'll put them in my playoffs). The Padres will be my pick to start out decent (carrying over from their somewhat strong finish to end the year - 42-33 record after the All-Star break) and then fade to around .500.
3. There's usually about 2 or 3 different division winners from one year to the next. And that's what I expect this year. I expect Cincinnati, San Francisco and Detroit to repeat as division championships, with the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies to overtake their divisions.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays will surprise as usual. Including their World Series appearance in 2008, the Rays have quietly won 3 of 5 AL East titles in a division that includes the presumably infinite payrolls of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Their worst season in this stretch is an 84 win season in 2009.
   
   So as they've done many times since then, they've unloaded some of their veteran payroll, trading James Shields and B.J. Upton in separate deals, getting back some highly regarded prospects from the Royals and Braves.
   
   Despite trading these guys, I believe the Rays will win their 4th division title in 6 years. Yes - the Blue Jays outspent them. And yes - seemingly every one of the Yankees infield makes more individually than the Rays do as a team. But Joe Maddon and his boys seem to get it done - a great pitchers park with great pitchers is hard to beat. I'm riding the Rays to the 2013 World Series.
   
   The oddsmakers have the Blue Jays, then the Yankees, as more likely to win the AL East. Don't do it - bet the Rays.

I've already written my thoughts on the White Sox. Just click the link before this sentence to read about my disappointing prognosis.

Now that I've teased some of my predictions, here are the rest of them, by division. Playoff teams are bolded:

AL East		AL Central		AL West
Tampa Bay	90-72	Detroit	94-68	LA Angels	93-69
Toronto	86-76	Cleveland	88-74	Oakland	89-73
New York	83-79	Kansas City	80-82	Texas	87-75
Boston	79-83	Chicago	76-86	Seattle	73-89
Baltimore	74-88	Minnesota	68-94	Houston	65-97

NL East		NL Central		NL West
Philadelphia	90-72	Cincy	92-70	San Francisco	91-71
Washington	88-74	St. Louis	86-76	LA Dodgers	88-74
Atlanta	86-76	Pittsburgh	77-85	Arizona	85-77
NY Mets	70-92	Milwaukee	76-86	San Diego	80-82
Miami	62-100	Chicago	69-93	Colorado	65-97

ALCS: Tampa Bay over LA Angels

NLCS: San Francisco over Philadelphia

World Series: Tampa Bay over San Francisco

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, LAA

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD

AL MVP: Evan Longoria (he'll finally stay healthy - jinx!), TB

NL MVP: Matt Kemp, LAD

AL HR Leader: Adam Dunn, CHW

NL HR Leader: Jay Bruce, Cin

Current MLB bets made on 5dimes: Tampa Over 86 wins; Cleveland Over 77.5. Likely to make a bet or two more before the season begins. Likely taking Tampa's World Series (currently 19/1) and division odds (+280)

As always, feel free to add your predictions below. I'll be glad to compare/contrast our picks