After Further Review...: More MLB Changes That Need to Happen

On Thursday, the MLB did the unthinkable - it joined the early 21st century and did something progressive by expanding the use of instant replay starting in 2014. This step is a huge one for MLB, who has struggled to incorporate technology into the game. Some of the traditionalists (ex-players, old and wrinkly writers who have covered the sport for way too long) will frown on this new element being added to the game, as they tend to do with anything that didn't come from the original roots of baseball (basically anything that doesn't involve cameras or advanced stats). Apparently, there's some charm to an umpire missing a call for these traditionalists, as if the human element should triumph common sense and getting the calls right (note: the replay is not being used for balls and strikes, nor should it. And any reasonable baseball fan would agree that this part of the game cannot be reviewed. I think the unreasonable baseball fans - yes, I'll pick on these traditionalists once more - were the only ones worried about balls and strikes being a reviewable item)

However, I believe it should be the start of many changes that need to take place across baseball - from attitude adjustments to the way statistics are perceived and much more.

In no particular order, here are some other much-needed baseball-related items that need to get reviewed and refined for the 21st century:

1.  Pitchers with hurt feelings (i.e. bitchers) - One of the pet peeves I've started to develop this year is the whiny pitcher (i.e. the pitcher who hits a guy because the hitter or one of his teammates got too excited about a home run or stared a little too long at the ball as it left the park). I would like to remove this part of the game, as well as other pointless beanball wars that serve no purpose other than get about 60 guys to run onto the field and pretend to fight. If you are a pitcher who allows a home run, you should be more mad that you allowed the home run than the guy who happens to enjoy what he just did to you (especially if it's a guy who hits about 3-4 home runs a year - he really can't act like he's been there if he only does it once every other month). This also goes for pitchers who get mad when a guy tries to bunt or steal when his team happens to be up by a decent lead late in the game. With baseball being one of the only untimed major sport (with its unit of time being "outs"), a team can theoretically come back from a huge deficit with almost 90% of the game complete a lot easier than other sports. This fact and this fact alone makes it perfectly ok for the Rickey Hendersons of baseball to keep running and bunting from Inning 1 till the end, no matter the score. After all, it's not as if the home run hitters stop trying to hit home runs, so why so mad at the bunters?
   
   Quit your bitching, pitchers. If you don't want guys celebrating or succeeding at bunts/steals late in games, how about you pitch better? Try that on for size and get back to me.
   
2. A new way of looking at statistics - He may rub some people the wrong way, but Brian Kenny is on to something when he presents his points to #KillTheWin (that is, the individual stat of a pitcher win) and bringing advanced statistics to the attention of the average baseball fan, who has grown up with the same stat lines that have been used for the last five generations of baseball players. Like the game itself, statistics have evolved into telling more of a complete story about players, which players may carry more value than realized, and which ones may be considered over-rated due to the static use of old-school baseball stats to judge players. I consider Kenny and Joe Peta, author of Trading Bases, to be among the tops in helping bring attention to this subject. I have been watching a lot more MLB Network this year and have noticed that some broadcasts have started to incorporate some of these new ways of judging players (like on-base percentage, slugging, OBP to name a few) into a player's normal stat line as he comes up to bat. In ten years, I believe that graphics that we see both at the games and on TV will look a lot different and incorporate this new age of baseball analysis.
   
   
   
3. Designated Hitter in Both Leagues - While the DH rule started as an experiment in the American League four decades ago, it brought a lot more offense to the league in general. Not only that, but it extended the careers of guys who could still hit but could not really do much else (see Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez and Frank Thomas, among many examples). This offense has made the American League into the "hitter's league", and what do chicks like to see? As Greg Maddux can attest to, they dig the long ball. Meanwhile, in the other league, dingers by DHs give way to sacrifice bunts and double switches, which National League backers think makes the NL better for some damn reason (hint: it's not that hard to do a double switch - bring in specialist, put him in batting spot where a recent hitter was stationed in the order, and take that particular hitter out of the game for another guy who can take the pitcher's spot in the order). While I enjoy a well-pitched game more than most, I believe that these elite pitchers should have to face a line-up full of at least average hits. Some pitchers can swing the stick well, but not enough to make me think that pitchers should continue to hit.
   
4. Traditional doubleheaders - I can't believe I'm including something that was once traditional into my list of things that MLB needs to bring back, but I think that each team should have a couple of scheduled doubleheaders on their schedule, for old-time sake. And I'm not talking about those bogus day-night doubleheaders where they clear the stadium in between games. I'm talking about the way it used to be when baseball had no lights and they had to fit in all games during the daylight hours of summer. Let's start some of these games on get-away days at noon, then follow that up with a second game to give fans a chance to watch two games on the same day. You might say that this would not hold the attention of today's baseball fan, and I may not be able to argue that. However, if it's only a couple times a year that these teams have to do it, what's the harm in giving these fans two games for the price of one? My friend and his family attended the longest doubleheader in history between Cleveland and Chicago in the last week of June, and he seemed to enjoy himself (without alcohol on top of it).  Let's make this happen MLB.
   
5. Retractable roofs for all - You say that this would be too expensive for some teams to do? Yeah, you're probably right. But this is make-believe/ideal baseball world according to Brian, so let's say that this is a possibility in every team's budget. Baseball is a sport, like football, that is meant to be enjoyed outdoors. Unlike its pigskin counterpart, it needs the ideal conditions (no ridiculous rain/snow storms) in order to function. For those random weather issues, every stadium's retractable roof can be closed to keep baseball indoors and prevent any rain delays that seem to hold up a handful of games per week. This year more than ever, it seems like a lot of these games are not being called, but played after a 3 or 4 hour delay. Instead of dealing with these delays, let's skip that process and put up the dome for these occasions. Advanced weather forecasts should be able to tell you when bad weather will play a factor into a game, so close the dome ahead of time if it looks like a storm should be hitting around the 4th or 5th inning.

I'm sure I have a few more suggestions, but these are just a few that I've had in mind recently. What changes would you propose for review by the MLB's top brass?

A Pastime Past my Time: Reliving My Baseball Youth Through a Different Lens

In the last 48 hours, I experienced different sides of a baseball diamond just like I was 12 or 13 years old again.

Sunday brought about a group of 11 "gentlemen" (I use this word loosely) playing 12" softball for a couple hours, while a day later had me, Jen, her friend Megan & her boyfriend Russ partaking in a White Sox/Yankees game.

There were just a few differences in each of these experiences than my teenage days.

In the case of Brian (Age 30) v. softball, the ball won. And I think it beat most of us "old" bastards, based on the lack of skill, speed, power and coordination that many of us displayed. Unlike days past, which featured mammoth blasts and amazing catches, this particular day saw guys eating hamburgers on the field and hot dogging on the base paths. There were very few plays which showed any skill or grace. My only moment in the sun (one which burned both of my arms and neck) was tracking down a ball about 35 yards away from me in full-sprint mode, finishing it off with a Louganis-like dive to make the catch.

However, being the "old man's diamond experience" blog here, this couldn't come without injury. About 10 minutes after we finished playing, I felt a groin injury develop. It didn't last long luckily, but the fact that it even occurred made me realize how different sports experiences would be after the age of 30, especially if I go years without playing these sports. Whether it be some extra stretching, warming up or practice, I will need to treat these activities differently when I play in the near future.


And as far as the ole ball game with the White Sox and Yankees goes, Brian (Age 30) has a much different look towards the game than Brian (Age 13) did. Age 30 lives in a sports fandom culture that is now aware of all the cheating going on in sports. Where as with football where performance-enhancers are largely ignored by the general public, the cheaters in baseball have angered the fans, who supposedly want a clean, honest game. Age 30 Brian is so numb to it all that his favorite experience with the game lies mainly in the endless data mining that he does, as if he was 5 years old again, learning math at a very early age by trying to figure out a player's batting average. Watching the actual product and pretending to get angry at these players has no appeal to Brian Age 30. After all, the memories of the home run chase, as drug-induced as it might have been, produced real excitement and enjoyment in baseball fans everywhere. Hell, many of our favorite musicians would not have written the classics that you still listen to today without their own version of performance-enhancing drugs. Knowing that these guys in the past did PEDs doesn't influence how I felt at those moments of my sports-watching life. I may be in the minority with these feelings, but all these guys getting busted feels good on one hand (because they're weeding out the cheaters) but on another hand feels like a CD that can't get past that skip on Track 9 (worn out and annoying to hear).

I can no longer look at these guys as heroes, and to be honest, they never should have been my heroes. As we grow older, we realize these athletes are humans just like all of us. They cuss, drink, smoke, and have other bad vices (some worse than others) just like all of us. Putting these guys on a pedestal isn't fair to them, and it sure as hell isn't fair to the kids who buy their jerseys expecting these guys to be model citizens. Let's enjoy the game, and instead of expecting a $30M man being your kid's hero, how about you do what you can to make sure your kid looks at YOU that way instead?

So as I sat there, listening to the boos raining down on Alex Rodriguez in his first appearance of 2013, I had a lessened version of the above paragraphs in my head. A-Rod is days away from likely serving a suspensions through the end of the 2014 season (over 200 games), so people had to get their last shots in on him before he disappears onto his own island. I couldn't work up that same anger, as described above. I was observing kids around me and how they were reacting to the chorus of boos. Some emulated the people around them, while others weren't really sure how to react. If the Age 13 version of me lived in the Age 30 world I current inhabit, I would likely be in the latter category.

Think about it from a teenager's point of view: ever since you've been following baseball, all you have ever heard about on Sportscenter has been about guys taking drugs that makes their performance better. You hear all of the adults around you, whether they be on the sports shows you have watched or the adults (like your dad or uncles), who share a mix of anger, disappointment and resentment towards those guys who cheated over the past couple decades. You want to embrace the sport and the athletes who you try to emulate when in the batter's box in Pinto league, but how do you react when coming across this?

Between these two experiences, I realized that I will always love playing it while I can (in this case, it was 12" softball - same difference in this story) and following it. After all, the statistics, which I believe were largely responsible in my math abilities being so strong from an early age, will always be there. Even if the players playing it on the professional levels might not be clean, I will always have a special place in my heart for the game.

At the Quarter Pole - MLB So Far

While the All-Star game is when most baseball analysts start breaking down the baseball season so far and what is to come, but I like to break baseball up into quarters. Much like high school, except this class has way more fun numbers to play with. And gambling.

Quarters tend to give a decent (although not entirely accurate) model into how we should expect the season to play out. Here were the standings last year after May 20th. Bolded w/o italics indicates the eventual division champ; bolded w/ italics indicates Wild Card entry:

2012 MLB Standings after May 20th

Balt - 27-15
TB - 25-17
Tor - 23-19
NYY - 21-20
Bost - 20-21

Cle 23-18
CWS - 21-21
Det - 20-21
KC - 16-24
Min - 14-27

Tex - 26-16
Oak - 21-21
Sea - 19-24
LAA - 18-24

Atl - 26-16
Wash - 24-17
NYM - 22-19
Mia - 22-19
Phil - 21-21

Stl - 22-19
Cin - 21-19
Pit - 19-22
Hou - 18-23
Mil - 17-24
Cubs - 15-26

LA - 28-13
SF - 21-20
Ari - 19-23
SD - 16-26
Col - 15-25

The most fascinating stuff about these standings? Two things:

1. None of the teams that eventually won the division were leading at this point of the year, although 4 of the 6 that were leading did end up with all of the 4 wild card entries into the playoffs. Three of the eventual division champs overcame a 5+ game deficit with the division leader at this juncture.
2. Four of the six current division leaders were also the leaders at this point last year. Arizona and Boston are the only differences.

So for those of you penciling in all the division winners to hold on, remember that the season in long and that none of the division winners last year at this point held on to win the division. I'm willing to bet that at least one of the current division leaders is destined to be at the top when the season ends.

Current division leaders: NYY (0.5 games up); Cleveland (2 games up); Texas (6.5 games up); Atlanta (2.5 games up); St. Louis (2.5 games up); Arizona (1 game up). My guess? Texas & Atlanta hold up.

As was stated in my predictions blog, I made several bets for the 2013 season. Here's the predictions blog for reference  and also my official bets for 2013 before the season began (note: I added  $15 more to my Indians division bet at +1450 a few weeks ago). Let's have some fun with these:

• Raise your hand if you bet on Houston to win over 59.5 games *raises hand in disgust, in process of flushing a Benjamin in the toilet*. Currently, Houston is 12-32. In order to reach 60 wins, they need to go 48-70 down the stretch. I don't feel good about the start, but I have to remember that only requires a 40.6% win percentage down the stretch. I put my chances of winning this bet at around 30%.
• I laid heavy juice on Tampa Bay (Over 86) & Cleveland (Over 77.5) and also threw a little cash on each to win their divisions. So far, Tampa is right around the pace required (23-20 record ~ 86.65 wins with the current percentage), while Cleveland is two clear of the rest of the AL Central, sitting pretty at 25-17. Tampa needs to go 64-55 to win my bet, while Cleveland can go 53-67 and still win me my wins bet. I believe Tampa's best ball is coming - their ERA (4.42) will only get better. Even with a slight regression in hitting, I think Tampa still has a good/great chance of winning this division. Obviously I feel better about Cleveland's chances to cash the win bet at the moment, but the Indians have blown good starts the past few years, so I'm not holding my breath. Still though, a nice start. I put my chances of winning the Tampa wins bet at around 54%; division bet at 30%. Meanwhile, I put my chances of winning Cleveland wins bet at around 70%; division bet at 35%. Detroit should still win the division, but Cleveland's bats could carry them to division crown.
• San Diego was my other over bet (74.5 wins). A slow start had me doubting this bet, but a resurgence in the offense has increase my confidence in this ten-fold (14-8 in their last 22 games). They may only be 20-23, but I do think San Diego has a great shot to be a sleeper team to make the Wild Card. In order to reach the wins total, the Padres need to go 55-64 down the stretch. I believe they will crack 80 wins and contend for a Wild Card, so my confidence in this bet is at 70%
• My only under bet was the Blue Jays going under 89 wins. A 17-26 starts means that Toronto would need to go 73-46 (61%) while playing in baseball's best division. Needless to say, I put my chances of winning this bet at 85% (since anything can happen, but I feel really good about this).
• Other division bet I made was on the Phillies, who sport a 21-23 record and sit 4.5 games back of the Braves. I don't give the Phils much better than a 15-20% chance to win this.
• Player props - Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes most HRs in MLB. It took Bruce forever to hit a home run (now he has 5), while Cespedes just nailed his 8th. They both trail Justin Upton (14) by a significant amount. However, a little streak for either of these guys can put them right in it. My chance of winning either of these bets is about 2-3%.

MLB Betting 4/8/13 thru 4/14/13

Last week's bets: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2013/03/b-bos-mlb-bets-futures-daily-bets.html

YTD: 29-37, -463.45 (Updated 4/15/13)

WTD: 13-17, -175.25

4/8 (1-4, -248.80)
Bos/Balt (Bucholtz/Chen) Over 9 - 66/60 - L - Never had a chance.
Garcia (StL) -111 vs. Cincy - 88.80/80 - L - Bad 2nd half of game for StL, even worse 9th inning (9 runs allowed)
NYM/Phil (Harvey/Halladay) Over 7.5 - 67.60/60 - Halladay is losing it. Sad
Hou +135 1st 5 innings - 70/94.50 - Dumb bet
Hou/Sea Over 7.5 - 84/80 - Dumb bet


4/9 (4-2, 185.25)
Det/Tor (Sanchez/Morrow) Under 8 - 70/70 - Morrow allowed too many hits. After mid-game tease, Detroit finished it off in 8th inning
Lee (Phil) -173 vs. NYM - 86.50/50 - Lee cruises to victory. Phils bats helped the cause
Richard (SD) +120 vs. LAD - 80/96 - Never trailed. SD opens up game in 8th.
Parker (Oak) +135 at LAA - 75/101.25 - After blowing 4-0 lead, big 5-run 7th seals it.
McDonald (Pitt) +130 at Ariz - 60/78 (first 5) - Pitt's big 4th inning seals the bet.
Colorado + 114 - 70/79.80 - Rockies couldn't muster any offense after a big 2nd. 

4/10 (2-2,  54.20)
Cin/StL (Bailey/Westbrook) Under 8.5 - 65/66.30 - StL explosion in innings 5-7 ruin a great start toward the under
Moore (TB) +124 at Tex - 80/99.20 - Nice shutout Tampa.
Floyd (CWS) +151 at Wash 50/83.05 - Brief lead, but never had a chance.
Bos/Balt (Dempster/Arrieta) Over 9 - 74.90/70 - Looked like a loss, but Baltimore puked and rallied. Must remember that these good fortunes usually balance out the bad beats.


4/11 (0-2, -150.50 )
Axelrod (CWS) +144 at Wash - 70/100.80 - Plenty of chances, but no dice

Cle/NYY (McAllister/Hughes) Under 8.5 - 80.50/70 - rained out
LA Angels Over 4 runs - 80.50/70 - Never threatened to win this bet.

4/12 (4-1, 312.5)
Cubs +128 (Villanueva) vs. SF - 65/83.20 - Cubs BP tried to blow a fantastic outing from Villanueva. Luckily, Romo was just as giving.
Pitt/Cin (Burnett/Leake) Under 7.5 - 67.20/60 - doomed from start. Went way over.
Hou +175 (first 5 innings) at LA Angels - 60/105 - Dominant performance by Bud Norris
Hou +185 (game) 50/92.50 - Never a sweat on this one. 5-0 win. Hard to beat that non-sweat with a +185
Iwakuma (Sea) +132 vs. Tex - 75/99 - Iwakuma an early season surprise. Hopefully catch value for another start or two w/ him.

4/13 (1-3, -143.40 )
Atl/Wash (Hudson/Strasburg) Under 7 (96/80) - 
Sale (CWS) -130 at Cle (78/60) - Sale got bombed today. 
Det/Oak (Verlander/Anderson) Under 7 (85.40/70) - Hard to bet unders on Tigers games. Need to make a note of this.
Cin/Tex parlay - (60/121.24)

4/14 (1-3, -164.50)
KC -103 (Santana) vs. Toronto - 103/100 - walk-off single wins it. Santana was solid.
Phil/Mia Over 8 (Halladay/Slowey) - 84/80 - finished way under. Halladay finally pitched decent.
LA/Ariz Over 9 (Beckett/Cahill) - 80.50/70 - again, way under. Both guys acted like they were Cy Young winners for a day. 1-0 final.
Balt/NYY Over 8.5 (Chen/Kuroda) - 100/112) - third time's not a charm. Way under. Again. Might need to lay off the totals for a bit.

B List - A Reflection of "The Road Trip", 10 years later (List 13)

Some of the ticket stubs from "The Road Trip"

Ten years ago.

Three skinny dudes.

12 baseball stadiums.

Two countries.

$1200 hard earned dollars pushing carts and bagging old people's groceries spent.

Enough numbers and sentence fragments for ya? Hopefully it should be. My trip with two gentlemen - we'll call them "Kudla" and "Luzzo" - was no doubt one of those life stories that I'll always be able to tell. From the early moments of walking through Detroit at night back to our car parked miles away (thanks "Kudla") to "Luzzo" doing all he could to chase down the Philly Phanatic and everything else, they are memories that will never sour in my mind.

Sure, there's probably a few stories here and there that I forgot that the other two might remember. I have a tendency to remember the strangest things, like being able to recall what "Kudla"'s idle status used to be on AIM when hearing the Aerosmith lyric, "Get up and go. Must have got up and went.", while forgetting the things I should have always remembered.

I was going to compile a list of my favorite stadiums, but I didn't really take good mental notes on stadium looks, amenities, and all that other jazz that goes into making good judgments on that sort of list.

Instead, I'll compile a list of 7 moments that I can recall (without looking at my journal of the trip) that stick out as the moments of the trip.

Ticket stub that Kenny Lofton signed for me.

7. Kenny Lofton autograph - With each game we went to, our intention was to get there early enough to catch batting practice, take a quick tour of the stadium, and perhaps meet some players. The first day of the trip featured the White Sox in Detroit. I happened to see Kenny Lofton talking to a guy who works at the park - appeared to be a friend of his - as I was walking around. I'm not, nor really haven't been since I was about 7 of 8, a guy who is screaming for an autograph. But I figured, first day of the trip, getting a White Sox player to autograph my ticket would be a cool memento. Lofton agreed to that as long as I would take a picture of him and the guy he was talking to. Sounded like a fair trade to me.

The balls we caught in batting practice in Pittsburgh. Kudla had to buy his baseball.

6. No Shirt, We Got Problems - Before we went to the Pirates games and saw a once-in-a-career performance by journeyman Adam Hyzdu (we saw him get 7 of his 63 career RBI in one game), we walked around the city of Pittsburgh to see what the city had to offer (as we did at all of the other cities). The temperature probably climbed into the 90s, basing off of the evening game time temperature (according to baseball-reference of the July 20, 2002 game) of 87 degrees. This rise in temperature caused some of us (hint: his name rhymes with Muzzo) to take their shirts off, leaving the others not wanting to walk within twenty feet of this said individual. And keep in mind, this is when we were in somewhat normal shape. Now? Yikes, couldn't imagine us doing that. I believe he kept trying to get us to high-five him, but we didn't. Maybe I'm not remembering that last part right, but I'm fairly sure of the avoiding shirtless Muzzo part.

One of many mascots that Luzzo stalked met.

5. The 45-minute tour of Cooperstown - Out of our 12 days on the road, we had only one day off. This day off was no ordinary day off of course. We were on our way from Montreal, and after we crossed the northern border of New York, our plan was to spend many hours at baseball's ultimate museum in Cooperstown, the site of Baseball's Hall of Fame. The only problem was - we couldn't find the damn small state or rural route that took us there. I remember hearing from someone before the trip that the road was hard to find, but I didn't think three morons would have a problem finding it. How wrong I was. After hours of just looking for the road that took us there, we finally found it and got to the museum an hour before it closed. Fast-walking through Cooperstown was not what we had in mind, but it was our only choice. I'm thinking GPS would help if we were to make another trip there, but knowing us, we may be able to find a way to screw it up.

4. First Legal Beer - The third game of our trip brought us to my first out-of-country experience, unless you'd like to refer to Canada as America, Jr. or America's Hat. And as any 19-year old who just started drinking a few beers at college would know, Canada allows kids that age to enjoy a cold alcoholic beverage. I can always say that my first ever "legal" beer was a Molson at the Skydome in Toronto. I don't remember what it tasted like, but I'm pretty sure it tasted like crap. Showing my "Under 21" American ID to get a beer empowered me for once. We saw Chris Carpenter as a Blue Jay throw a gem against the Red Sox, but that's not what I remember the game for - it was my first beers. Our ride across the country to Montreal, I believe I was passed out in the back seat of the van (or as drunk people call it, time travelling), all screwed up from the 5 (yes, only 5) beers that I had that day. Which brings me to my next story....

The road trippers at what used to be a MLB stadium in Montreal

3. Hotel Le Rivage & Porn in the Morn - One of the things we did when booking our road trip was say that we were booking a room for two to save a couple bucks at each stay. When we arrived at the Montreal hotel we booked months earlier, I was the one who stayed in the car while Luzzo and Kudla checked us into our hotel. In this moment, I think I missed the moment of the trip. You see, this was before the days of using the Internet to Google hotels and see reviews of a hotel and everything about it. Turns out, we had booked a room at a sex hotel. When the boys came back to the car to get our belongings to bring back to the room, I saw a look on their faces that told me that I had missed something hilarious beyond belief. I'm thinking the person who confirmed our reservation looked at them two laughed and said, "You're kidding, right? You're the ugliest gay couple we've ever seen", except in French.

Sure enough, the room had mirrors through the room (on basically every wall, including the ceiling), although based on a quick Google search of ratings for the hotel, we apparently missed the chance to have a room with a stripper pole. Damn you, Hotel Le Rivage. Anywho, aside from all the mirrors that none of us (that I know of) took full advantage of, one of the best part of the room was the sticker on the TV that told us what channel the porn was on. And since it was in the morning that I noticed this, it inspired me to come up with the term "Porn in the Morn". It got a good laugh then, and I thought it may have to do with us being so young. Nope - it had to do with us being guys, because I still find it to be a great term.

Luckily, this was as close as we were to being mauled in Detroit.

2. Walking in Detroit - The first day of the trip had neared its end. We had seen the White Sox beat down the Tigers and were thinking about our next stop in Cleveland, hoping the trip would continue down this path of awesomeness. Instead of taking the path back to our car the same way we did before (on the safe and reliable Monorail), we decided to walk back to our car, which I believe was over a mile away. Aside from being known as a safe city to walk in at night (my fingers love typing that sarcastic garbage), Detroit offers no reason for three skinny white boys to make an unnecessary adventure back to their car. I rank this number 2, because besides surviving a shitty situation, we didn't have a worry-free walk back. Almost a few blocks away from the park, we have somebody start following us and talking to us, asking us for money. He kept following us despite our insistence that we had no money on us. A police siren in the distance had our follower state, "Oh shit, was that the po-lice?" That comforted us the way a diet brownie comforts Roseanne. As we kept walking, the guy darted off to the other side of the street to say what's up to someone we knew, and we breathed a sigh of relief. We forgot we had a rest of the trip to worry about during this moment. Cleveland was next - another busy day awaited. Once we lived that day out, we had my #1 experience of the trip. The type of moment that you'd see in just about any cliched Hollywood movie about road trips.

One of the last times we smiled together between Cleveland & Buffalo

1. ...in a Van down by the Wal-Mart (or was it a K-Mart?) - The second night drive of our trip was from Cleveland to Buffalo, NY. We had to leave the extra-inning Indians/Yankees game early in order to make sure our car did not get locked in the garage we parked it in. This was one of my longest drives of the trip (I left the driving mostly to Kudla and Luzzo since I preferred to be a spectator). As we approach Buffalo in the wee hours of the morning, we get to our hotel, only to find out that we were too late to check into the hotel (despite having a room booked). On edge at this point, we have no idea where we're going to sleep. It's about 3 or 4am local time, and Luzzo is annoying the living piss out of me. He's telling me how to drive, where to turn - to be honest, I forgot everything that annoyed me about what he said or what he actually said. I just remember being pissed off beyond belief. We decide that we're gonna sleep in the van for the night. We found the Wal-Mart parking lot and called it our hotel for the night (pretty sure his directions to this Wal-Mart are what got me pissed off). I don't recall how many hours (if any) I slept that night. All I know is, we spent a night of our wonderful road trip in a Wal-Mart parking lot. Unfortunately, the picture that was taken of me giving the portable camera the finger went missing somewhere along the trip. We did our cleaning for the next day's travels in the Wal-Mart bathroom. To be honest, as I write this, I forgot if it was a Wal-Mart or a K-Mart. I guess it doesn't matter. I remember this part of the trip not for the name of the store whose parking lot we bunked at, but for the great moment that it produced.

As with almost any and all road trips, it's the unscripted, unplanned moments that always end up topping our memory banks once the trip is done. And this trip was no exception.

I'm glad we did this road trip, because not only was it a once-in-a-lifetime experience that we all knew at the time was once-in-a-lifetime (whether we admitted it or not was another story). The best part of the trip was that it created a lifetime bond for three guys, who at the time had barely known each other for more than a year or two.

A Numbers Analysis into Baseball's First Half of the Year

Not sure how many of you rely on the family of sports sites with "reference" in the title (baseball-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, etc.) for information. Myself, I love them all. I've been trying to use them more with my gambling exploits to find edges on matchups.

One stat that I'm going to look at for the second half of the baseball season is how important overall run differential is. Baseball-reference.com uses a Pythagorean formula for figuring out what a team's record "should" be based on a team's run differential throughout a season. For a more detailed formula on it, check it out here.


The idea of this formula was proposed by Bill James, who many sports nerds know as the mind behind Sabermetrics in baseball. It takes into account the perceived luck a team may be having (or not having). Some folks believe that winning by 1 or 2 runs is a thing that takes skill, but it's usually something that's supposed to even out over time. A team that wins consistently by larger margins is going to have a better chance of winning more games than a team that wins by a smaller amount for the margin of error involved.

I took a look at where each team who made/won a World Series since 1995 (the year wild cards were first used) ranked with this run differential stat to see what could be made of it, if anything. I also looked to see how far down each list you would have to go to find the worst team to make the playoffs:

Year	WS Winner (Pythagorean Rank)	WS Loser (PR)	Lowest Ranked Playoff	Top Team PR	Notable Teams PR records
2011	Stl (9th)	Tex (3rd)	9	Phil 103-59		30 teams
2010	SF (4th)	Tex (8th)	8	NYY 97-65		30 teams
2009	NYY (2nd)	Phil (5th)	11	LAD 99-63		30 teams
2008	Phil (3rd)	TB (5th)	12	Cubs 98-63		30 teams
2007	Bos (1st)	Col (4th)	16	Bos 101-61	Ariz 79-83 (div winner)	30 teams
2006	StL (16th)	Det (T 1st)	16	NYY/Det 95-67		30 teams
2005	ChW (5th)	Hou (7th)	9	StL 98-64		30 teams
2004	Bos (2nd)	StL (1st)	10	StL 100-62		30 teams
2003	Fla (11th)	NYY (2nd)	14	Sea 97-65		30 teams
2002	Ana (1st)	SF (4th)	12	Ana 101-61		30 teams
2001	Ariz (3rd)	NYY (5th)	9	Sea 109-53		30 teams
2000	NYY (13th)	NYM (8th)	13	SF (97-65)		30 teams
1999	NYY (3rd)	Atl (2nd)	9	Ariz (102-60)		30 teams
1998	NYY (1st)	SD (5th)	11	NYY (108-54)		30 teams
1997	Fla (7th)	Cle (9th)	12	Atl (103-59)	SF 80-82 (div winner)	28 teams
1996	NYY (8th)	Atl (2nd)	11	Cle (96-65)		28 teams
1995	Atl (2nd)	Cle (1st)	9	Cle (93-51)		28 teams

In the 17 World Series since the Wild Card format began, we can make note that the team who topped the run differential (Pythagorean formula) made the World Series in only 6 of 17 World Series, winning 3 of them). The 2nd ranked team has the exact same stats, winning 3 of the 6 World Series they have appeared in. A #1 vs #2 matchup has only happened twice, although in some cases it is not possible if the top 2 teams are from the same league.

Compare these numbers to the teams who barely sneak in or make it because they won a crappy division. Three teams with rankings in the double digits won the World Series, meaning that they made the most of making the playoffs. However, both teams that have entered the playoffs with a losing record (according to their PR) failed to make the World Series.

It should be noted that 24 of 34 teams who made the World Series in this time did finish in the Top 5 in PR record, so there is something to this - if you were a good team that won by a higher margin than other teams in a 162 game sample, then odds give you a better chance to succeed on average. In a 5 or 7 game series, crazy stuff can happen, so the occasional middle-of-the-road team who is lucky enough to make the playoffs will win it all (i.e. 2006 Cardinals, who finished 82-79 en route to having the worst winning percentage of any team to win a World Series).

2012

Using this year's statistics through July 4th, we can see where teams fit into this formula and what teams may be facing a regression and what teams could expect to have better records if their current numbers hold up for the second half of the season. I'll note the teams whose records would be 3+ games better or worse based on their perceived luck so far (according to the Pythagorean record) and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Colorado & Seattle should have 4 more wins than they actually do, but neither has a legitimate shot at the playoffs at this point.

Notable Teams That Should Improve (Records as of July 4)


Boston (Actual Record 42-40, 7 GB; PR 46-36) - Boston's offense cannot be ignored and would likely need to be the reason for Boston to make a run (none of their starters have ERAs below 4.00). If their pitching staff improves in the second half, it wouldn't be shocking to see them as one of the two Wild Cards.

St Louis (Actual 43-39, 2.5 GB; PR 47-35) - Like Boston, St Louis has been the victim of their pitching staff. The absence of Pujols hasn't hurt the Cardinals' offense at all, and I believe they can (and will) win the NL Central by year's end, although I'm in the camp that Lynn has probably peaked this year. Somehow, someway, I say they win the NL Central.

Philadelphia (Actual 37-46, 12 GB; PR 40-43) - Main reason that I even mention the Phillies is that their pitching always gives them a chance. The problem is that their staff isn't quite what it was last year, especially with Halladay on the shelf. Even though their record should only be 3 games better, it would be good enough for 8 games back in the division if this were the record to be used. It's unlikely they will overtake all 4 teams in the division to win it, but they could catch fire and be the second Wild Card

White Sox (Actual 44-37, first place; PR 47-34) - This shocked me, and in a good way. Their run differential indicates that the start of their season is legitimate and could actually be better. This may have been inflated from Tuesday's 19-2 romping of Texas, but nevertheless, the stats say the Sox are for real. Real enough to be considered a World Series contender. Their PR of 47-34 is tied for 2nd in the majors with the Yankees.

Notable Teams That Should Decline


Miami (Actual 39-42, 9 GB; PR 34-47) - Many think that Miami has underachieved so far this year (and you could make a case for that given their talent - I had them winning the World Series at the start of the year), but the numbers tell a different story. They are fortunate to be "only" 9 back and will likely tail further down if they continue with their current run differential.

San Fran (Actual 45-37, 0.5 GB; PR 42-40) - A team like San Fran is predicated on winning low scoring games, which obviously means they won't outscore their opponents by a high margin more often than not. If they can manage to continue doing so, then they could be one of those teams that enters the playoffs on the lower end of run differential and have a good chance to win short series simply on the strength of their rotation.

Baltimore (Actual 44-37, 5 GB; PR 38-43) - Right now, Baltimore would be the second Wild Card team. They have had the most luck, according to run differential, bettering what their actual record should be by 6 full games. If that corrects itself in the second half, then Baltimore will likely be facing a record along the lines of 82-83 wins - not bad for a team that's sucked so bad lately, but not good enough to make the playoffs.

Cleveland (Actual 42-39, 2 GB; PR 38-43) - I don't see Cleveland holding up in the second half of the year. I could see them fading to as low as fourth in the division.

Little League, Big Disappointment

In the past 10 days, I've had flashbacks to my Little League days - but not the good "Home Run" or "Nice Catch" memories pop up. More of the LSD/'Nam flashbacks where you just want the acid trip to end (note, I've never done acid, just to ease your mind in case you worried - this is just to make a point).

Last week, I went to a White Sox game with Jen, her friend from work and the friend's husband. The Sox were facing the Tigers. We had decent bleacher seats in right field, kind of close to the vistiting team bullpen. As the Tigers half of the first inning ended, I saw a familiar name warming up the right fielder. Turns out an old classmate of mine is now the bullpen catcher on Detroit and gets to play catch with the outfielder during the game.

Look at this stud

I knew this guy was in the Tigers system, but that's not the story. The sight of this player brought back some memories of my Little League days. I played with him in a baseball league back in the day, including making a traveling All-Star team when I was 8 years old. I say "made the team", but unfortunately did not involve much playing. This team was coached by the guy's dad. It sucked as a little kid sitting on the bench for these games while my peers got to play every game and every inning. Sucked even worse for my parents who came to all my games, hoping that I would get some action, only to be a bench prop game in, game out. I have a trophy that proves that I was a part of the team, but I was no more part of the team than you were. You would think that all kids in a setting like that would get close-to-equal playing time, but this particular coach was all about winning.

My second reminder of these days happened earlier this week. I was watching America's Got Talent, and some 7-8 year old kid was showing off his rapping "skills". The judges buzzed that kid off before he could finish, which led the kid to cry. While I don't remember crying when these baseball games were going on and I couldn't play, I was definitely just as disappointed at not being able to play. The weird thing with this incident was that I completely sided with the judges on this one. The kid didn't deserve to advance - he sucked. The judges are required to be critical of bad talent and advance the good talent. Obviously doesn't always happen that way, but they get it right more often than not in these shows. Anyways, Howard Stern was given heat for critiquing the kid, even though he was hired to be critical. It's as if a kid is just automatically supposed to advance because "he's cute" or some other BS.

In both of these cases, a young person (me and this kid) were exposed to disappointment at a very young age. Despite my negative experience, I didn't have a ton of sympathy for the kid who got voted off. If this kid is as good of a rapper as he and others may think he is, he will continue to work on his skills, practice his craft to no end, and perhaps someday show some actual talent in rapping. Whether you're the best at what you do or looking to advance in the field of your choice, practicing and looking to learn how to get better is necessary.

While I didn't give up Little League after that experience, I did give up playing baseball when I got cut from the high school team in freshman year. My line of thinking was - OK, I didn't make the team this year - no way will I make the team in future years. So instead of trying to get better and make next year's team, I quit playing.

These experiences as a youth can definitely carry over to one's adulthood. While I was definitely disappointed with how my traveling baseball experience went when I was younger, it gave me a life lesson really quick. One that we're afraid to expose to younger kids - the concept of disappointment. As parents (or in my case, a future parent down the line), we want our kids to be happy and have a better childhood than we did - even though many of us can't really complain about how things turned out.

Unfortunately, it's hard to spin a disappointing event in a kid's life into a positive. It's hard to tell a kid, "This is how life is sometimes. It's not fair." As a kid (or even a high schooler), if I really really wanted to succeed at baseball, there's no guarantee that I would have made future baseball teams. Sometimes, it's just a true lack of talent in something that holds you back from making a team; other times, it may be some silly politics, where kids make teams simply based on who they know or whose asses they kiss.

However, there is a definite guarantee in not making the team if I don't try out for it. I suppose I just didn't care to succeed in baseball, that I was somewhat burnt out from playing for the past 9 years and just wanted time to myself.

The best thing you can teach a kid in a moment of childhood disappointment is that while life doesn't always go the way you want it to, if you really want something, you have to keep trying, keep practicing at making yourself better. You may not always catch the right eyes and get what you want (more playing time or your first record contract), but you won't catch anyone's eyes if you just give up because someone said you weren't worthy or weren't good.

As the cliche goes, you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take. You may miss some (or most) of the ones you do, but if you really want something, a certain level of effort is needed. Otherwise, you have only yourself to blame for it.

Save the Best for First: The Beauty of Baseball's Opening Day

Even though I don't get into baseball as much as I used to when I was a five-year old boy playing catch with his dad, I still find a great appreciation to Opening Days, particularly home openers. Something about the grass starting to show its green color in the Spring sun, about the sound of baseballs echoing in the catcher's mitt, there's nothing quite like it.

I am heading to the Sox opener and hope to enjoy all these sounds and sights from my 500 level seats. Not the best seats, but any seat on opening day is a great seat.

There's plenty of excitement spread out across my two social networking sites, and with good reason. Even though not much is expected out of the White Sox this year, the concept of Opening Day allows you to be delusional, if only for 3 hours and 9 innings.

A few beers to be consumed, bratwursts to be digested and hopefully, a White Sox winner are all in the horizon. Happy Opening Day to US Cellular Field baseball. May everyone enjoy it and the rest of the season. Hopefully, our squad will surprise us this season.

An Open Letter to Cubs/White Sox Baseball Fans

Dear Baseball Fan,

I figure this is about as good of a time as any to write this, with our baseball squads nearing the start of their seasons in the Windy City. Over the years, I have developed a strong dislike to the ignorant comments from both White Sox and Cubs fans that has resulted in arguments that bring mankind back to the Stone Age. It has come time for me to express my distaste of everything that is stupid with our "rivalry".

Unhappy with me putting the word "rivalry" in quotes? I don't look at the two teams as true rivals--the Sox and Cubs are rivals 6 times a year in my eyes. Otherwise, as a White Sox fan, I couldn't care less what the Cubs do. In fact, in their other interleague games, I am rooting for the Cubs. This applies more now with the extra Wild Card in play - the more losses our divisional opponents and other AL squads lose, the better for the Sox. Most prognosticators have the Sox nowhere near the playoffs, so rooting for the Cubs in those situations may seem pointless, but I'll take my chances with the North Siders whooping up on our AL brethren.

There's a few bullet points that strike me at the heart of my annoyance with Cubs & Sox fans - on both sides - that I will address below.

• World Series - This is always the topic that gets brought up in Windy City baseball arguments stemming from the past seven offseasons. Yes - the White Sox took home the city's first baseball title in almost 90 years as they rode through October 2005 with relative ease. But to keep bringing it up in arguments with Cubs fans makes it sound like we won several titles in a 4-5 year period when we have only won a single playoff game since then. The titleless drought since then leaves Chicago with one title in the past 95 years. Almost 200 seasons worth of baseball (combining the two teams) and only one title to show for it. When it comes to the title argument, I say to Sox fans: Let It Go.
  
  The devil on the shoulders says, "Well, we did win a World Series in our lifetimes, so you can't hold it against us for being proud of that." True - that is something we have that Cubs fans cannot say at this point. For the North Side fans who say that our title was seven years ago - you are correct, and I applaud you for your math skills. But it did happen.
  
  I saw a Facebook post from one Cubs fan to another that seemed awfully touchy to an ad made by Comcast SportsNet that mocked a video game commercial about a Cubs fan who was happy he led his team to a World Series title. For those who haven't seen the parody video, you can check it out here. Sox fan or not, I find it to be an efficient parody of the commercial, which itself was well-designed. I don't understand why you can't enjoy both ads without being sensitive about either end of it (no matter your fandom).
  
  We need to find a way to balance all of this - where White Sox fans can be proud of their title from the recent past without (a) being annoying about it, (b) tossing it into an argument to prove that the White Sox are somehow better and (c) Cubs fans being pissy about the mere mention of it when it comes up.
• Gay vs. White Trash Bashing - If you go to a Cubs/Sox game, you're bound to see your share of a-hole wearing "Wrigley Field: The World's Biggest Gay Bar" or "Ozzie Mows My Lawn". Odds are high that the people wearing these shirts are the ones who eventually get kicked out of the park for excessive drunkeness that leads to fights where Cubs fans' sexuality & White Sox White Trash status become the main arguing points.
  
  Yes - I'm sure there's plenty of White Trash fans in the South Side fan base, just as I'm sure there's gays and lesbians who consider themselves Cubs fans. Perhaps I am over-analyzing this and giving the general public not enough credit, but why do we need to resort to attacking fan base's perceived social standing or sexuality preference, as if they have anything to do with baseball? If we're going to argue Cubs versus Sox, let's argue stats and head-to-head matchups instead.
• Parks: Half Empty/Half Falling Apart - I love when I hear Cubs fans comment on the attendance of both teams, as if that really plays a role in making your team better. I admit that it can be disappointing to see the stadium half empty in the thick of summer, especially when the team is still in a pennant race. However, for fans like myself, what a half-empty stadium really means is a much better chance to attend games in person for face-value or close to it. I don't think the Cubs drew as many fans last year as they have in past years, but in the past 20 years, a bad Cubs season will easily outdraw a bad (sometimes even a good or really good) Sox season. Good for them, but that's not a point to argue to make your team sound better.
  
  On the other hand, even though the stadium is in dire need of a remodeling, Wrigley Field stands as the beacon of Chicago Baseball parks. The White Sox blew a great chance when designing the new stadium, which opened in 1991. It was the last of stadiums built that was by most standards, a fairly average-looking stadium. Every stadium since the designing of our park, starting with Camden Yards in Baltimore, has been an outstanding park worthy of sellouts and bringing your family to (at least the ones I've visited). We have nothing to brag about with US Cellular Field - anyone who has visited at least one of the new stadiums (new being newer than the Cell) knows what I am talking about. Wrigley has the better atmosphere outside the stadium and the better stadium when it comes to historical significance.

There's some arguing points that I'm probably missing, but these are the main ones that annoy me when pointless arguments spring up among Chicago baseball fans. What I can't stress enough is that I, Brian Peter Vincent Bolek, have no hate towards Cubs, Cubs fans or anything relating to the Cubs."

I do not have any envy relating to them either. I don't care that they sell out their games, that people like to go to their games more than the Cell. In my eyes, they have nothing I really envy - with the exception of Theo Epstein, who I believe will turn the team around, starting with the building of their minor league system. I do think the Cubs will win a World Series in our lifetimes, and the parade for it will probably dwarf the crowd that the White Sox championship brought to the streets.

I wish the Cubs well in 2012 and beyond and want to express this so that maybe, just maybe, some of these pointless, inane arguments about an opponent who really only affects your team's season 6 times out of 162 can die down somewhat.

If we are going to have arguments, let's make them fact-based and not attacking stupid things like one's sexuality, social class or stadium. Also, White Sox fans - no Cubs Suck chants when walking down the ramp WHEN WE AREN'T PLAYING THE CUBS!

I won't be holding my breath for peaceful relations between White Sox and Cubs fans, but all I can do is hope. And share these words. I hope you got this far and see what I'm getting at.

Enjoy the 2012 season everyone.

Sincerely,

A White Sox Fan

We're Talkin' Baseball: 2012 MLB Preview

Updated 3-3-12

As far as offseasons go for baseball, this one had a little bit of everything.

The top two free agents in MLB move out of the NL Central much to the delight of the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Astros. Albert "El Hombre" Pujols signs a rich deal with the Angels, while Prince Fielder gets a king's salary from a Detroit Tiger squad that is looking to take the next step in the AL.

A current MVP was revealed to have a suspicious drug test back in December. Luckily for the Brewers, Ryan Braun will not have to face a 50-game suspension (at this current time anyways) after a panel overturned the tests on the grounds that the samples were mishandled.

Josh Hamilton continues to face his inner demons and may have cost himself a shot at a big contract after his drinking incident earlier this month.

Oh, and the Chicago side of things - each squad loses a pitcher to the Marlins. On the Sox end, most of us actually wanted our hurler (Buehrle) to stay in the city limits, but the length of contract in addition to playing for Ozzie Guillen again was enough to wisk him away from the South Side. Meanwhile, everyone knew Big Z would be gone. As a 4th or 5th starter on a loaded Marlins staff, Zambrano could give the Marlins the necessary pitching depth to compete with the Phillies for the NL East crown.

Aside from those moves, not much can be said about Chicago baseball teams' chances in 2012. Given his track record in Boston, Theo Epstein gives the Cubs a great chance to rebuild their minor league system. While they are a longshot to make the playoffs this year, I'd say that Cubs fans are probably feeling a little more optimistic about their future than the Sox, and that has everything to do with Epstein.

The White Sox were in a clear rebuilding mode this offseason, shipping away Quentin & last year's closer Sergio Santos while letting Buehrle sign with Miami. Chris Sale is the unknown as he enters his first year in the starting rotation, which features John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Phil Humber.

My friend Nick highlighted in his White Sox preview a few weeks back that the South Siders have a wide range of possibilities depending on how things fall into place. You could probably say that about any team, but I see his point. You have to figure Adam Dunn will get things somewhat figured out, but will it be his standard .250/40/100 remains to be seen. I believe Rios' one good season a couple years back was the exception in what has been a lackluster career given his hype as a prospect.

I don't know how much longer Konerko can keep these numbers up as he continues to get up there in age. The starting staff seems to be their best chance of success, with Sale being the X-factor. We already know Peavy will only start 20-25 games - he can be penciled in for a couple DL stints at random points in the year.

Vegas has the White Sox win total at about 74, which I believe they will go OVER. I see a 77-78 win season in the Sox future. Likely 3rd or 4th place finish.

Sorry, getting ahead of myself. Without further ado, here's my predictions for the MLB season.

All over/under victory totals are from 5dimes.com as of 3/3/12.

AL East - Favorites: Yankees; Other contenders: Red Sox, Rays. Thoughts: After entering 2011 the favorites following some offseason moves, the Red Sox find themselves projected behind the Yankees in the division entering this year. New York's big move in getting stealing Michael Pineda from the Mariners solidifies their staff. They will have enough offense to hold off the other squads. I say Rays take second and win the American League Wild Card.

AL East	O/U
NYY	93	Over	94-68
TB	86.5	Over	91-71
Bos	89.5	Under	87-75
Tor	80.5	Over	82-80
Balt	69.5	Under	65-97

Pick: Yankees (w/ Rays winning Wild Card) - rest of division in order (Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles)

AL Central - Favorites: Tigers; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: Out of the six divisions in MLB, this division has (by far) the biggest gap between first and second place (at least on paper). The Indians have a mid 80s win projection and are expected to finish 2nd behind the Tigers, with the Royals around 80 wins and the Sox behind them. I still think there's questions with the Tigers' pitching staff behind Verlander, but their stellar offense should be enough to win the division.

I think the Royals are heading in the right direction and would be my pick to be the surprise team of the AL this year. Not enough to take the division yet, but perhaps in 2013.

AL Central	O/U
Det	92.5	Over	94-68
KC	80.5	Over	83-79
Cle	78.5	Over	81-81
Sox	74.5	Over	78-84
Min	73.5	Under	69-93

Pick: Tigers - rest of division in order (Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins)

AL West - Co-Favorites: Rangers & Angels; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: The Angels made the biggest splashes by picking up Big Al and CJ Wilson in less than a 12 hour span.  Many are projecting them to overtake the Rangers for the division crown, but I still have my money on the Rangers. The Angels could take the Wild Card, but I'm a big fan of the Rays and what Joe Maddon has done in what was once a sesspool of a franchise and now is a perennial contender despite their small payroll.

AL West	O/U
Tex	91	Over	92-70
LAA	92.5	Under	90-72
Oak	71.5	Over	74-88
Sea	72	Under	67-95

Pick: Rangers - (w/ Angels winning Wild Card*) - rest of division in order (A's, Mariners)

*Pick Added w/ New Wild Card Format announced at end of February

Looks like I have the same AL playoffs as last year. Not what I set out to do, but that's how I see it.

On to the NL...

NL East - Favorites: Phillies; Other contenders: Nationals, Marlins, Braves. Thoughts: This division takes the crown as the most competitive division in baseball, edging out its AL directional counterpart. I like most of the moves that the Marlins made, and with Josh Johnson back in the rotation to join Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Zambrano, the Marlins have formed one of the better rotations in baseball. Not to mention they signed Reyes (who should still have a few good years in him) and have a nucleus of Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez, whose only worry is how he will adjust to moving to a new position.

Maybe I'm drinking the Nationals' Kool-Aid, but I have them as my NL breakout team. They also have a solid staff, when, if healthy, stacks up well to the Marlins. Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson are a solid 4 starters. I have enough faith in them to make them one of my new "Baseball Hats of 2012" in my lifelong goal of collecting a hat from every MLB franchise.

I don't know why, but I'm not sold on the Phillies. Ryan Howard, who is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in 2011 postseason, saw most of his key #s dipping in the past 3 years without the injury. Halladay and Lee will keep the Phillies in contention, but I see the Phillies being the 2012 version of the Red Sox - not so much collapse but failing to make playoffs despite heavy odds of making it*.

NL East	O/U
Mia	84.5	Over	92-70
Wash	83.5	Over	89-73
Phil	93.5	Under	88-74
Atl	86.5	Under	81-81
NYM	71.5	Over	72-90

Pick: Marlins (w/ Nationals & Phillies* winning the Wild Card). Rest of division in order (Braves, Mets) *Pick Added w/ new Wild Card format just announced

NL Central - Favorites: no clear favorite; Other contenders: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers. Thoughts: This division is the most wide open based on its lack of a clear favorite. Many expect the Cardinals to take a step back w/ the loss of Pujols and LaRussa, but they always seem to find a way to contend - also, Wainwright will be back. Likewise, Fielder's absence will be hard for the Brewers to fill, but they still have a solid pitching staff.

NL Central	O/U
StL	84	Over	87-75
Mil	84.5	Over	86-76
Cin	86.5	Under	80-82
Cubs	74.5	Under	72-90
Pitt	73.5	Under	69-93
Hou	64	Over	66-96

Pick: Cardinals - rest of division in order (Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros)

NL West - Favorites: Giants/D-Backs; Other contenders: Rockies, Dodgers. Thoughts: I don't have a good read on this division. No one saw the D-Backs' run coming last year - I see a slight regression to slightly above a .500 record. With Posey coming back and a solid pitching staff, I like the Giants (I'm a sucker for a good pitching rotation). I see them edging out the Dodgers, who have Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw & MVP candidate Matt Kemp leading them to a potential division crown that has eluded the franchise as of late.

NL West	O/U
SF	87.5	Over	89-73
LAD	81.5	Over	84-78
Ariz	86.5	Under	82-80
Colo	81	Under	78-84
SD	73.5	Under	68-94

Pick: Giants - rest of division in order (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres)


AL Championship: Yankees over Tigers
NL Championship: Marlins over Giants

World Series: Marlins over Yankees (but not because the NL gets home field with their All-Star victory). The Marlins are due for one of their random World Series runs and have a squad that can compete for one.

Random Individual Predictions (aka - R.I.P.):

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Det)...Sleeper: Nelson Cruz (Tex)
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Fla)...Sleeper: Buster Posey (SF)
AL Cy Young: David Price (TB)...Sleeper: Michael Pineda (NYY)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Phil)...Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
AL HR Leader: Jose Cabrera (Tor)...Sleeper: Adam Dunn (CHW)
NL HR Leader: Mike Stanton (Fla)...Sleeper: Jay Bruce (Cin)

With this being said, if you can find a way to fade all of these picks, be my guest. Feel free to offer up your own predictions.

Bolek. Out.