MLB Predictions: A Look Back at the Bad (and some Good) Predictions from Spring Training

A Look Back at My 2013 Predictions

I'm always one to make sure I hold myself accountable for predictions - both good and bad - when it comes to offering them before a season starts. Like many of you, I tend to back up my opinion with cash money.

Maybe like many of you (perhaps some of you), I struggled throughout the 2013 season. I meant to keep accurate records of everything, but after a while of just sucking too much, too hard (the stuff they won't show on Cinemax), I just stopped keeping track of my daily progress.

One thing I can easily keep track of are the futures bets that I made (team wins, division winners, World Series champ bets). And much like my daily bets, success was hard to find. I made the following bets before and during the season:

Win Props

• Tampa Bay Over 86 (135 to win 100) - WIN
• Cleveland Over 77.5 (135 to win 100) - WIN
• Toronto Under 89 (105 to win 100) - WIN
• Houston Over 59.5 (100 to win 105) - LOSS
• San Diego Over 74.5 (100 to win 115)- WIN

Division Props

• Tampa to win AL East +255 (40 to win 108) - LOSS
• Philly to win NL East +330 (40 to win 132) - LOSS
• Cleveland to win AL Central +900 (15 to win 135) - LOSS
• Cleveland to win AL Central (Made few weeks into season) +1450 (15 to win 217.50) - LOSS
• San Diego to win NL West (Made in June) +3300 (15 to win 495) - LOSS

World Series Props

• Tampa to win WS +1500 (30 to win 450) - PENDING
• San Diego to win WS (bet made in June) +25000 (15 to win 3750) - LOSS 

Player Props

• Jay Bruce Most HRs in MLB +1900 (25 to win 475) - LOSS
• Yoenis Cespedes Most HRs in MLB +5000 (15 to win 750) - LOSS

As you can see, not much has gone right outside of my over/under bets for season wins (I went 4-1 there).

The link I introduced at the beginning highlights some of my thoughts before the season on things I know to be true about MLB. Going point-by-point:

1. Re: Spending big does not equal success. I was half right on the teams mentioned in this point. While the Dodgers' big spending eventually paid off in a big way, the Blue Jays never really got going this year. The big names signed and traded for have led to no improvement in the quality of the team (last year Toronto was 73-89; w/ two games left in 2013, they are 73-87).

2. Re: Due for some surprise teams. Again, I was half right here. I did predict Cleveland as a wild card team that would finish about 5-6 games behind Detroit (at the moment, 3 back, but obviously division is clinched). While not a wild card team just yet, I applaud myself for getting this pretty damn close at the very least. I missed on my other surprise team (San Diego), who looked like they may contend after having one of the best stretches in the MLB during June. However, once they realized they were San Diego (and once Los Angeles got their shit together), the wheels fell off. Thankfully, they rebounded enough in September to win me my futures bet on them. Pittsburgh is the ultimate surprise from the NL.

3. Re: 2-3 new division winners. As you saw above on the division bets, I didn't do a good job of predicting the new division winners. The only division I even got right was Detroit, which was the biggest chalk in baseball. There were actually four new division winners, none of which I got right (Boston, St. Louis, Atlanta, Los Angeles). 

4. Re: Tampa will surprise as usual. The jury is still out on this. We will see if they make one of the two wild card spots (tied w/ Cleveland and one ahead of Texas). With their solid pitching, I still believe they can win the World Series if they are able to extend their season into October.

Revised MLB Predictions (w/ 2 games left)

WC round

Pitt over Cincy; TB over Cle

Divisional Series Round

TB over Bos; Det over Oak

NL TBD: Whoever faces Atl over Atl; either LA over StL or StL over Pitt

League Championship Series: 

Det over TB; LA over StL or Pitt

World Series: Det over LA

Award Winners

AL MVP: Miggy

NL MVP: McCutchen

AL Cy: Scherzer

NL Cy: Kershaw (hey, I think I got one preseason pick right!)

AL Rookie of Year: Wil Myers (no true standouts in AL - Iglesias and Straily have a shot)

NL Rookie of Year:  Fernandez (Mia) (Puig had amazing start, but Fernandez dominated throughout entire season)

WS MVP: Victor Martinez

Stink of the Sox: How Getting Clubbed by Cubs Shouldn't Be A Surprise (and Why I Expect Further Stink)

Entering the 2013 season, I had lower fan expectations than most when it came to the Chicago White Sox, who I believed overachieved greatly last season in holding first place in the AL Central for most of the second half of the season before being edged out by the eventual pennant winners Detroit Tigers.

My prediction of 76-86 was based on my questions with guys who had tough shoes to fill (Flowers replacing Pierzynski), who strike out too much for how little they get on base (Viciedo, Alexi), guys who would have a difficult time duplicating previous seasons (Sale, Peavy), and guys who would likely tail off at some point (Konerko).

I have been wrong so far about my pre-season assessment of Sale and Peavy, but otherwise most of my suspicions for a tail-off this season have been proved true, especially in their latest series versus their National League counterparts about 10 miles north.

The White Sox hitters have been beyond putrid this season. Check out some of these team stats entering Thursday's game (their third loss to the Cubs), accompanied by their AL rank (out of 15 teams). And remember that the Astros (one of the worst teams in the majors) are now in this league:

• .240 batting average (13th)
• .293 on-base percentage (15th)
• .379 slugging (13th)
• .672 OBP (15th)
• 126 extra base hits (15th)
• 121 walks (15th)

Trying to find a good stat from White Sox hitters is like trying to find Where's Waldo as a kid when the pages weren't pre-circled. If it wasn't for the stellar pitching of Sale & Peavy, this team would be much much worse than their 24-27 record indicates. It's actually quite surprising that they've even gotten this many wins.

On the other side of town...the Cubs have actually showed some promise, more than most people were expecting.

Here are the Cubs stats in the same categories entering play on Thursday:

• .248 batting average (8th - a higher average even though pitchers have to hit in NL)
• .302 on-base percentage (12th - one of the things really holding this offense back from being even better)
• .411 slugging (3rd)
• .713 OBP (8th)
• 172 extra base hits (1st in NL, 4th in the majors). 
• 118 walks (15th)

Most of these stats are not too shabby, especially for a team that sports a 22-30 record. Strange thing about their record is their runs for vs. runs allowed (Cubs have plated 214 runs to their opponents 208, including Thursday). These are stats that I like to use to see what teams might have deceiving records at a certain point in the year (I like to start taking stats/trends seriously around the 35-40 game mark). This contrasts the Sox luck of scoring only 183 runs while allowing 212.

Yes, at the end of the year, the record is what tells the story, especially of who is playing in the postseason and who is joining Terrell Owens and just eating popcorn in October. And by the time this season ends, I believe it will be the Cubs who will have bragging rights (at least with win totals) over their South Side brethren. 

With one game left in their season series with the South Siders on a yet-to-be-determined date, the Cubs clinched the Crosstown Cup with their win Thursday. Whenever their next game might be, I believe we will be looking at a North Side team that will have overtaken the White Sox in wins.

Sox To Be You: How the South Siders Have Fared Recently in Last Month of MLB Season

At this moment, I should be getting ready to go to a White Sox playoff game. At least that's what my hope was when I bought tickets to Game 1 of the ALDS a couple weeks ago.

However, as the White Sox have done many times over in the past decade, they faded into the sunset as Detroit's pitching hit their stride which helped them overtake Chicago without looking back.

It'll be tough to watch the Tigers when I thought a couple weeks ago it was going to be the White Sox, but I'll get over it. The expectations weren't too high for the year, but as the team starts to prove your expectations wrong, you start to slightly adjust your thoughts. Other White Sox fans - you can't tell me that your expectations didn't change when you saw them enter the All-Star break with the lead. Even though we weren't expected to win the division, I am very disappointed because down the stretch, I did expect to win it.

Here's an example of how the White Sox have done since 2000 before September and in September:

	Entering Sept
	Record	Place	Games Back or Ahead
2001	68-65	3rd	Down 7.5 games	to Cleveland
2002	65-70	2nd	Down 14 games	to Minnesota
2003	73-64	1st	Up 1.5 games	to Minnesota
2004	64-66	3rd	Down 8.5 games	to Minnesota
2005	80-51	1st	Up 7 games	to Cleveland
2006	78-56	2nd	Down 4.5 games	to Det
2007	57-78	5th	Down 20.5 games	to Cleveland
2008	77-59	T-1st	Up 1/2 game	to Minnesota
2009	64-68	3rd	Down 6 games	to Det
2010	72-60	2nd	Down 4 games	to Minnesota
2011	68-66	3rd	Down 6 games	to Det
2012	72-59	1st	Up 2 games	to Det

And here's how things ended in Sept/Oct

					Champ
	Sep/Oct	Final Record	Final Finish	Final Games Back/Ahead	or 2nd
2001	(15-14)	83-79	3rd place	Down 8 games	Cleveland
2002	(16-11)	81-81	2nd place	Down 13.5 games	Minnesota
2003	(13-12)	86-76	2nd place	Down 4 games	Minnesota
2004	(19-13)	83-79	2nd place	Down 9 games	Minnesota
2005	(19-12)	99-63	1st place	Up by 6 games	Cleveland
2006	(12-16)	90-72	3rd place	Down 6 games	Minnesota
2007	(15-12)	72-90	4th place	Down 24 games	Cleveland
2008	(12-15)	89-74	1st place	won division (1 gm playoff)	Minnesota
2009	(15-15)	79-83	3rd place	Down 7 games	Detroit/Minn
2010	(16-14)	88-74	2nd place	Down 6 games	Minnesota
2011	(11-14)	79-83	3rd place	Down 16 games	Detroit
2012	(12-18)	85-77	2nd place	Down 3 games	Detroit

In this twelve year span, the team in first place entering September has won eight out of the 12 division titles. The White Sox (2003, 2012) and Detroit (2006, 2009 - lost tiebreaker to Minn) were the teams who blew their division leads in the last month.

If you notice, the only year the White Sox gained ground on the competition closest to them was in 2002, when they gained that magical half game to finish 13.5 back of the Twins. You can say 2006 was gaining, but the Sox needed a one-game playoff to win the division.

Otherwise, in the past 12 years, we haven't seen a year where the White Sox had a better record than the team they are chasing or who is chasing them. Since the World Series win in 2005, they've barely broken .500 a couple times but otherwise have dragged to the finish line.

Sure, the Cubs are known as Completely Useless By September to the folks who like to stir up the White Sox/Cubs "rivalry", but when it comes to September, the White Sox have been pretty much completely useless.

You can tell me that this year was better than expected, and the March/April version of me would agree with you. But the September/October version of me feels like they let the fans down, And with how they've had problems closing out seasons as of late, you can't blame me for being disappointed.

MLB - A Look Back (Preseason Predictions) & A Look Forward (Playoff Preview)

Note: I wrote most of this on Saturday (Sept 29th) under the notion that the White Sox fade would continue (it did), but I did not expect the Athletics to steal the division away from the Rangers, so my predictions are edited as such.

Please feel free to offer your own post-season predictions. Enjoy.

Good day to you all. I hope you enjoyed the end of the baseball season as much as I did - except for the White Sox not making the playoffs part. For a team that was projected to win about 75 games, they held their own most of the season, but the Tigers' last season surge timed out perfectly with the White Sox Swoon.

Before breaking down the playoffs, I'd like to see how well my projections from late February ended up turning out.

Here's a look at it, just so you have proof: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2012/02/were-talkin-baseball-2012-mlb-preview.html


PLAYOFFS?!?
What went right: Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals
What went wrong: Marlins, Phillies, Angels, Rays
Who replaced the wrong: Braves, Reds, A's, Orioles

Notes: I had the Nats as a Wild Card and Cardinals as a division champion - but they both made the playoffs, so I'm happy to get it somewhat right. The Nationals surprised even the most optimistic of people on what they did this year. Question is - will the shutting down of Strasburg hurt them in the playoffs? Short series requires good pitching - one less great pitcher has to diminish their chances of winning it all.  I'd love to see the Reds advance to the World Series (I made a bet in early August for them to win it all at 10/1 odds), but I wonder if they have enough consistent arms to face the Giants, who have developed into a well-rounded team who have somehow gotten better without Mr. Testosterone (Melky Cabrera).

Can you believe that during the season, the Athletics were as high as 100/1 just to win their division? This was at the beginning of July when the Athletics were a season-high 13 games back from Texas. At that time, Oakland was 37-42 - they would go on to close the season on a 57-26 run to overtake the Rangers in the AL West. I like this team, but I don't like their draw (vs. Detroit). I see Detroit taking the series in 4.

Miguel Cabrera: From triple the legal limit (maybe not that high) to Triple Crown

The Tigers woke up in September after being out of first for pretty much the whole year. I have my money on the Rangers and A's to win the World Series (among 5 teams I bet - others include the Reds, Phillies and D-Backs), so I'm obviously rooting for one of them to make it there and win it all. However, I have the Tigers pegged as my AL favorites now. Getting two starts from Verlander (should the series go long), arguably the best starting pitcher remaining in the playoffs, with the lineup they have, I think they'll be able to overtake the Rangers this year and advance to the playoffs.

OVER/UNDERS (Total projected wins & my predictions)

How I did: 17-13

My best division was the NL West, which I was able to project 4 out of 5 teams totals correctly (missing on the Padres, who I had going under their projected total of 73.5). I also did well with the AL West, missing only on the Mariners.

I did below average with projecting the AL Central team's over/unders (I got the White Sox over & Twins under right).

I didn't guess any of the 30 teams exact records, but I was within 3 wins on ten separate teams.

The teams I did the worst predictions for: Baltimore 65 wins (won 93, "only" 28 wins off), Miami 92 wins (won 69 - 23 off), Oakland 74 wins (they won 94), Boston 87 wins (they won 69) and Cincy 80 wins (won 97). I find it funny that I have World Series bets alive with two of these teams


Individual Predictions:

What went right: Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP; David Price for AL Cy Young
What went wrong: Hanley for NL MVP; Halladay for NL Cy; Stanton for NL HR leader; Jose Bautista (in the Feb preview, I put Jose Cabrera, so perhaps I should get half credit for forgetting his name like a dumbass)

Notes: These votes won't be known till next month, but I feel good about Cabrera's chances of winning the MVP - he'd be the second Tiger in a row to win the MVP (Verlander). Likewise, Price is among a few AL pitchers who should be considered for the Cy (Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver - hell, Verlander with a "down" year compared to 2011 should also be considered).

When I went all-in with the Marlins, I set myself up for failure when thinking Hanley might win MVP this year. Even when healthy this year, Halladay wasn't Cy Young material. Stanton did finish top-5 in the NL in home runs, but finished way behind Ryan Braun. Jose Bautista (or Jose Cabrera as I called him in Feb) was doing well before getting hurt in July (averaging a HR every 15/16 at bats). He may have had a chance to win it. Oh well. I guess the Hanley & Roy predictions were the only really bad ones.

2012 Playoff Predictions (Version 3.0):

AL Wild Card (one game playoff): Rangers over O's (as long as it's not a one-run game or goes into extras)
NL Wild Card (one game playoff): Braves over Cards (Kris Medlen doesn't lose)

AL Divisional Round: Tigers over A's (I hope I'm wrong here); Rangers over Yanks
NL Divisional Round: Giants over Reds (I hope I'm wrong here too); Braves over Nationals

ALCS: Tigers over Rangers (initial prediction: Yankees over Tigers)
NLCS: Giants over Braves (initial prediction: Marlins over Giants)

World Series: Tigers over Giants (initial prediction: Marlins over Yankees)


Who I have left for World Series bets placed in-season (Rangers - 100 to win 450; A's - 30 to win 1200; Reds - 50 to win 500)

A Look Back (and Look Ahead) at MLB thru All-Star Break

Many of you (based on blog views) read my MLB preview back in February in which I gave some of my predictions. Here it is again in case you want to take a look at it. Another blog I wrote featured a few more daring predictions: check that out here. I like to look back at my predictions, no matter how good or bad they are.

First, the Good predictions:

• Dunn will return to a 30+ HR hitter. He's only a few away from that mark. Granted, his average sucks, but he is seeing the ball better (much better OBP - which is what he is known for).
• One long-shot will win a division. Jury is still out on this, but according to the numbers I posted in March from what they were on 5dimes, the Pirates (30/1 to win NL Central), Mets (55/1 to win NL East), Orioles (110/1 to win AL East - yes, that high of odds - not a misprint), & the White Sox (12/1) are all in reasonable spots to contend in the second half of the season for their divisions. There's a chance none of these teams will win their division, but the fact remains - there's usually at least a few teams that come absolutely out of nowhere to make a surprising playoff run (or at the very least, threaten to make the playoffs).
• Nationals predicament w/ Strasburg. His inning limit is set in stone apparently. He has pitched 99 of his allotted 160-170 innings for the year, and yes, like I thought, the Nationals are in playoff contention. If this limit includes the playoffs, I think he's going to need to skip a few starts the rest of the year. 79 more team games would mean about 15-16 more starts if they stick with a 5 man rotation. 60-70 more innings in that time, wouldn't even be pitching more than 5 innings per game. Not sure of their minor league depth, but perhaps they could go to a 6-man rotation at a certain point. I would not want to have Strasburg sit if I'm a Nationals fan, but given the choice, I'd rather have him sit (or spread his starts out) now rather than later.
• Chris Sale as the best pitcher in the Sox rotation. I said that he would be the best by the end of the year, so I'm ahead of schedule. Peavy started off hotter than Sale, but the lefty has definitely left his mark as the future ace of the staff. I hope the Sox brass ensures that we don't overuse Sale now at the risk of a year-long injury in the near future (Wood, Strasburg, etc.). I know this sounds blasphemous, but Sale has the look of a younger Randy Johnson when he throws his wicked southpaw heat.
• AL HR leader: Jose Bautista (w/ Adam Dunn as listed sleeper); Al Cy Young: David Price; NL HR champ: Mike Stanton (Bruce as sleeper) - all have a fighters chance in those respective races. Except Mike is no longer Stanton's first name. Does that count against me?

Now, the Bad predictions

• Marlins winning a World Series - seems a little far fetched. I don't think they'll even finish about .500 at this point, yet alone win a World Series. Many of the stars on the team have underachieved. The defense behind the pitching has been awful. Chalk this one up as a loss for yours truly.
• Detroit Tigers running away w/ the AL Central. Many people had this one wrong as well. The Tigers could go on a great run to end the season and win by 10+ like they did last year, but I don't see it happening. I, like many others, underestimated what the White Sox are capable of. I think it will come down to the last series with the White Sox taking the AL Central crown again.
• MVP choices: Miguel Cabrera in AL & Hanley Ramirez in NL. Way way off.
• NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay. See above.

Glad to see I hit more than I missed on these. Here's my revised picks for divisions and World Series:

AL East: NYY (original pick: NYY)

AL Central: Chi (original pick: Det)

AL West: Tex (original pick: Tex)

AL Wild Cards: Detroit & LAA (original picks: Rays & LAA)

NL East: Washington (original: Mia)

NL Central: StL (original: StL)

NL West: SF (original: SF)

NL Wild Cards: LA & Cin (Original: Wash & Phil)

ALCS: Rangers over White Sox (Original: Yanks over Tigers)

NLCS: Wash over SF (Original: Mia over SF)

WS: Rangers (FINALLY!) over Wash (Original: Mia over NYY)

Feel free to offer your own predictions as you see them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

MLB - Bold Predictions 2012

With baseball about to start, it's about time to make some predictions. I made some in my MLB preview last month, so here's some more.

• Adam Dunn will hit 30+ HRs once again - As my friend Nick mentioned to me yesterday, Dunn's numbers in 2011 could not have been predicted by anyone who studies baseball statistics for a living. His season really came out of nowhere, and for someone at his age (entered 2011 as a 31 year old), a sudden drop-off in numbers is quite rare. I'm dismissing the possible "steroids" angle that many suspect when numbers drop off drastically. Instead, I believe his appendix issue to start the year (where he had to have a surgery after the first week of the season) carried over into the season, which resulted in numbers that would have made 99% of major leaguers get demoted or booted out of baseball altogether. I believe we will see a happy medium between the 40 HR Dunn from the decade preceding 2011 and the craptacular version we saw last year.
• There will be at least one team who wins their division with division odds greater than 10/1 - Candidates for this include the NL Central (Cubs 21/1, Pirates 30/1, Astros 135/1), NL West (Padres 18/1), NL East (Mets 55/1), AL East (Blue Jays 12/1, Orioles 110/1) and AL Central (White Sox 12/1, Royals 14/1, Twins 17/1, Indians 90/1). All odds are from 5dimes. AL West odds are not available since two of their teams already played, but I'm willing to guess the two teams who did play (Athletics + Mariners) were both over 10/1. That means over 40% of teams are considered long shots to even make the playoffs. However, there's almost always one team that overachieves (i.e. Diamondbacks). I wouldn't be shocked (based on percentages) that it would be a team in the AL Central. The Tigers have a strong offense, but have a very suspect defense and some average arms behind last year's Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander. 
• The Nationals will be in a predicament in September. This first part is a big assumption. I have the Nationals pegged as a Wild Card team. Right now, they seem to be this sport's version of the Detroit Lions, where many experts are projecting postseason play for the first time in a long time. So what's going to be the issue? Two words: Stephen Strasburg. After coming off of Tommy John surgery, Strasburg is on a 160-innings pitched limit. I'd assume that includes the post season. If he stays healthy and doesn't miss a start...let's say he averages 6 innings a game. That would put him at 27 starts, assuming they go with a 5-man rotation the whole year. That would put them around the first or second week of September. Seems strange to make a guy your opening day starter but also cap his innings. The fan pressure may be too much to bench him for the year. I'm hoping (if they stick with this limit) that they skip his spot in the rotation several times and give a spot start to a minor leaguer. If they aren't in the division or wild card races, then shutting him down will be much easier to do.
• By the end of 2012, Chris Sale will be the White Sox best starting pitcher - We've seen what he can do in the bullpen. The Sox certainly didn't draft him to be in the bullpen though, so Adios to Buehrle, and a Hello to Sale. Expect corny Internet and newspaper headlines involving the southpaw's last name. For all of those syndicate newspapers that read my blog, here are some....you're welcome: Epic Sale; Setting Sale; At a Sale's Pace; Working on the Sale Road.
  
  Ok, I admit some of those are bad - but then again, so are a lot of headlines I read every day.
• The Marlins will win the World Series - I know Cubs fans feel depressed every time someone other than them wins it all, but even the White Sox, who almost moved to Florida in the mid 90s, have to feel a little ill that a team that has been around for less than 20 years already has two titles. If my prediction is correct, it would be 3. The Marlins aren't a huge underdog (20/1 odds puts them with the 8th best odds), but I consider it a bolder proclamation than saying the Yankees will win it all. As I mentioned in my MLB preview, I like their rotation, like their overall lineup better than anyone else in their division (Phillies included). I'd take the 20/1 odds but my friend who gives me access to the 5dimes site said our accounts are going to be shut down at the end of the NBA playoffs.
• *Future Prediction...The Cubs Will Win a World Series Before the White Sox Win Another - I am sold on Epstein as a winner and think he will get the North Siders going in the right direction a lot quicker than Kenny Williams will the White Sox. Epstein helped push Boston over the edge in 2004 and then again in 2007, mainly by building up their minor league system. Pieces they didn't use (i.e. Hanley Ramirez) were traded for pieces that helped win them World Series (i.e. Josh Beckett). I think a focus on better scouting, which involves some Sabermetrics (for those not in the know, think of the movie Moneyball), and not a heavy reliance on free agency (although every good team needs some good free agent signings) will help bring the Cubs back to the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. As far as the White Sox go, to put it in a baseball analogy, I've seen enough of Kenny Williams to know that he has swung and missed more than he has connected. I'd like to see a new GM in town in the next couple years.

Life's a Pitch: MLB Playoffs Thus Far and LCS Predictions

Everyone remember the commercial from the 90s in which Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are conversing about hitting home runs, with the infamous "Chicks dig the longball" quote? In case you don't, here it is for your viewing pleasure:

Needless to say, home runs have been a fascination with fans since the days of Babe Ruth blasting more home runs than entire teams would in a year.

Sure, I like a good home run every now and then. But if you give me what we saw in the 3 winner-take-all games so far in the postseason, I'll trade that for a high scoring game anytime.

Between the Game 5s played in New York, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, there were a total of 11 runs scored between the 6 teams. Here are the totals of the starting pitchers of those games (including Ivan Nova, who was pulled after 2 innings due to an injury):

12 IPs, 11 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 10Ks (Ariz/Mil)
17 IPs, 9 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10Ks (StL/Phil)
7 IPs, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 7Ks (NYY/Det)

That's a combined 36 IPs, with 28 hits and 7 walks allowed (WHIP under 1.00), with 7 ERs surrendered (ERA under 2.00) and 27 strikeouts. An average of 6 innings pitched (higher if not for Nova), 1 walk, 5 hits and 1 run allowed, with 5 Ks in those outings for the six pitchers.

Stuff your 12-9 Mile High games in a sack mister - I'll take my 3-2 and 1-0 games all day, especially on the game's highest stage.

LCS Predictions

As everyone who watches baseball knows, it is one of the hardest sports to predict. That's why when I bet baseball, I usually just stick with total run bets. I don't see these LCSes any easier to predict.

I think the Tigers are going to need to win both of Verlander's starts to win this series. I think they'll end up splitting his starts and the Rangers win in 6. The Rangers have a little more depth with pitching and bullpen, especially now that they are using Ogando out of the pen. I think their lineups are both devastating, but as the playoffs have shown, good pitching will usually beat good hitting.

The Cardinals have made a tremendous September push to get to where they are now. However, with Carpenter, who pitched a shutout last night to get the Cardinals to the NLCS, likely only getting one start in the first 5-6 games of the series, I like the pitching that the Brewers can throw out there more. I like the Brewers to win in 6 games as well. With both of these teams knowing each other well (played 18 games in the regular season, splitting them evenly), I expect a very competitive series with the victor scoring less than 4 runs in several of the games.

Since my predictions have been way off so far this year, you Cards and Tigers fans can thank me for your World Series berths in the next 10 days.