No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl

In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).

Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.

I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).

Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.

But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.

Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.

Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.

Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.

Possible playoff opponents

If they get a bye...

New Orleans -  This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.

If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.

If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)

Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.

Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.

Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.

Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.

NYG -  Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.

If they advance to NFC Championship

Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.

The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.

Money Where My Mouth Is

I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.

To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:

(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)

The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.

In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.

Week 16 Bets

I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).

Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.

NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.

Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.

My Surprise NFL Playoff Team & Week 14 picks

At this time last year, the NFC West was being led by a pair of 5-7 teams (St. Louis and Seattle), who would end up facing each other in Week 17 as a pair of 6-9 teams dueling for the right to become the first NFL team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record.

A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.

Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.

However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.

Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.

Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.

Breakdown of Seattle schedule

Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.

Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.

Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.

Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).

Predicting the Future

Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.

The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.

In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas

AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.

Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs

Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.

Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.

Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.

Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.

Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.

Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.

Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5

Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!