Prop-aring for the Super Bowl & The Madness of Super Bowl Betting

Here are a few questions to ponder:

1. How long will Alicia Keys take to finish the national anthem?
2. Will she add or forget any words when she is singing it?
3. Will Jay-Z appear on stage with Beyonce at some point during her halftime performance?
4. Will Beyonce's hair be curled, waved or crimped?

And while you're pondering them, you can also gamble on them. Yes - online sportsbooks offer gamblers a chance to win (or likely lose) a ton of money on the craziest stuff you can think of.

Now of course, there's close to a thousand props for people who use 5dimes.com to bet on (921 to be exact), ranging from the non-football bets above to bets such as a team's exact margin of victory and a lot in between.

Some of the larger odds:

• If you think there will be a score within the first 30 seconds of the game, you can throw a few dollars on that at 50/1 odds.
• If you think both QB's first passes will be interceptions, you can bet that at 400/1 odds (i.e. $10 nets you $4,000)
• If you think the score will be tied at the half and at the end of the fourth quarter, you get those odds at 55/1.
• If you believe the first score (like in last year's Super Bowl) will be a safety, you're getting 100/1 odds.
• Betting on San Fran to win by exactly 41 points, you get 550/1 odds. Betting Baltimore to win by that same margin is a 2000/1 proposition. (Most exact margins of victory pay the most, but these are the highest).

Now, some of the ones I am considering:

1. Total missed FGs: Over 1 +275: Including the postseason, Justin Tucker missed only 3 of 35 field goals in his rookie year. However, the veteran on the other sideline has been awful. David Akers has missed 14 of 44 field goal attempts, including a miss in 10 of 18 games. He had 4 multi-miss FG games. I think this offers value, as you can get at least a push if there's only one miss.
2. LaMichael James: Over 5.5 carries/25.5 rushing yards: I've lumped these two together. I believe that the Niners' best chance to win will be on the ground. James is fresh, and with little game tape of the Oregon speedster, I believe Harbaugh (the Jim version) will have him featured more. With the Ravens having allowed 125+ rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, I believe there will be plenty of opportunities for Gore and James to get theirs.
3. Score in first 4 minutes (+270): San Fran has had a tendency in both postseason games to start slow, with an early pick-6 by Green Bay and a quick first drive by Atlanta in the NFC title game to open up the scoring. Don't be surprised (if Balt gets ball first) for Flacco to go deep to Torrey Smith to start the game.
4. Michael Crabtree MVP (+1800): I made the case for Crabtree in a previous blog. If San Fran wins thanks to Kaepernick, there's a decent chance he's been targeting Crabtree. As long as Crabtree grabs the majority of Kaep's yards & TDs, I think he has good value at 18/1, as long as Kaepernick doesn't run for 50+ yards as well.

101 Bets

In case you missed last year's feature, I interviewed a couple of friends on their annual tradition of betting on 101 separate props. This year was no exception to their betting adventures. The Man of Little Stature won the coin toss and made his first pick "The Football Travels Over 1499.5 yards", which has become his new favorite bet over "the pylon gets knocked down".

Here's a list of their bets for this year. This...is how professionals do it:

	LM	TS
1. Heads/tails:	Tails
2. Calling team picks:		Tails
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss:	Loses
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers:		Chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1499.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards + successful FG yards):	Over
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:		Run
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:	Pass
8. First score, TD/FG:		FG
9. First team to score:		SF
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception:	Int
11. Which team commits the first turnover:		Balt
12. Which team commits more turnovers:	Balt
13. First team to take a timeout:		SF
14. First team to challenge play:		SF
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5:		Under
16. First quarter points, over/under 9.5:	Over
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 14:		Under
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 10:	Over
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5:		Over
20. Total points for game, over/under 47.5:		Under
21. All timeouts used in the first half:	No
22. All timeouts used in second half:		No
23. First penalty committed by which team:	Balt
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards:		Under
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC:		Balt
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC:	Balt
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
28. Most team passing yards:		Balt
29. Most team rushing yards:		SF
30. Most team passing TDs:		Balt
31. Most team rushing TDs:		SF
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards:	SF
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC:	SF
34. More FG/TD in game:	TD
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game:	Yes
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half:	No
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:		Yes
38. Will there be a safety in the game:		No
39. Will there be an OT:	No
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion:		No
41. Last team to score:	SF
42. Last team to score win/lose:		Win
43. Anyone ejected from game:		No
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s:	Under
45. First/second half, most points scored:		2H
46. Which team will record more sacks:		SF
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores:	No
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC:		SF
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards:	Over
50. Which team will score the longest TD:	SF
51. Will there be a defensive TD:		No
52. Will there be a special teams TD:		No
53. Which team will kick the longest FG:		Balt
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick:	No
55.Will game be tied after 0-0:		Yes
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock):	Over
57. Winner of Super Bowl:	SF
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5:		Over
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC:		Balt
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first:		TD
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first:		TD
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble:	No
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble:		No
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers):	SF
65. Which team will intercept more balls:	SF
66. NFC QB first pass complete?	Yes
67. AFC QB first pass complete?	Yes
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands:		Stands
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC:	SF
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC:		SF
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC:	SF
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC:		Balt
75. Which team punts from deepest spot:	Balt
76. Which team kicks for more points:		Balt
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC:		Balt
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5:	Under
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards:	Balt
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5:	Under
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards:		Over
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards:		No
83. Will there be a missed FG:		No
84. Last score, FG/TD:	TD
85. Will there be a red zone turnover:	No
86. Who places more punts inside the 20:	SF
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game:	Yes
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty:	No
89. Will there be a blocked FG:	No
90. Will there be a blocked punt:		No
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass:		No
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker:	No
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC:		Balt
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC:	SF
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards:		Under
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards:	Under
97. Is a double digit lead ever established:		No
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead:	SF
99. Who has more time of possession:		SF
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QBs:		SF
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QBs:	Kickers

No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl

In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).

Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.

I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).

Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.

But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.

Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.

Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.

Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.

Possible playoff opponents

If they get a bye...

New Orleans -  This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.

If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.

If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)

Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.

Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.

Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.

Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.

NYG -  Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.

If they advance to NFC Championship

Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.

The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.

Money Where My Mouth Is

I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.

To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:

(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)

The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.

In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.

Week 16 Bets

I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).

Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.

NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.

Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.