Never Leave the Table When You're On a Heater - Week 8 Picks

It only took me three weeks of NFL to give myself a personal bye from gambling. It was that bad of a run.

After that week break, it only took me a couple weeks for me to finally say that I'm about to hit my in-season run of a lifetime.

With the help of a spreadsheet I've created that shows how much a team wins or loses against the spread on a weekly basis (thanks to Covers.com for the numbers), I've figured out a good way to find great spots to bet teams who are either coming off of two or three straight games where they don't cover or even better, fading teams who are riding 2/3 straight covers.

The bigger the covers, the more likely I fade them.

The bigger the losses, the more likely I bet them.

We'll see if it works, but I'm liking the results so far.

From Week 6 to Week 7 -

Houston goes from getting destroyed by the Packers (losing to the spread by 22) to winning by 23.5 against the spread against Baltimore (look to bet Baltimore in Week 9 - they've lost five straight games against the spread - the only team with more than three straight games without a cover).

Jacksonville lost two straight games against the spread by a total of 48 points. They get a bye week and an inflated line against a subpar Oakland squad who was spotting Jacksonville 6 points against the spread. Jacksonville holds the lead most of the game, blows it, but still covers the spread by a field goal.

Pittsburgh has a prime-time loss against the lowly Titans, giving the Steelers their third straight non-cover. In Week 7, they fell behind 14-3 against the Bengals but took over the game from the second quarter one and ended up winning and covering. Like Baltimore, I plan on betting Cincinnati after their Week 8 bye since they have failed to cover in three straight.

The Bears got a week to rest in Week 6 after three impressive wins (covered by an average of 17 points/game). They were covering most of the Detroit game but lost it on a touchdown with less than a minute left, allowing Detroit backers (like this guy) to cash in. Sure, the Bears could (and should) have covered it, but they didn't. And since they failed to cover by the slightest of margins, perception of them is still positive. I find a second-week fade of the Bears to be in the works.

I don't know if I've stumbled into something good to use for the rest of the year and perhaps in future years or if I'm over-thinking this stuff. It's worth a shot for now since I've taken a look at this year's data and saw that there's great value in fading teams with (1) a mini-streak against the spread or (2) coming off a couple huge wins against the spread. Likewise, while it may feel icky to bet crappy teams like Jacksonville to cover, betting teams who have racked up several bad losses in a row are likely to have a point spread that is more of a reflection of their recent streak than what the team actually is. Even if you gain a couple points based on this perception, you gain an advantage.


Week 9 Picks

Fool's Gold (5-4 record) - Pick 1 Car +7.5 at Chicago...You look at the line and you can't believe it. How is Carolina not a 10+ point dog to the Bears, considered by many to be a top-3 team in the league? After all, Carolina's offense is a mess/the Bear's defense capitalizes on team's mistakes like no other. The Bears have a good rushing attack and a QB who hasn't made as many mistake this year, save the Packer debacle. Some interesting stats between the two teams: Carolina (5.9 yards/play - T6th), Chicago (5.2 y/p - T23rd); Chicago D (4.9 y/p - T-3), Carolina (5.5 - T 17th). Both teams average more per play than they allow on defense. What this means, I don't know. Just really wanted to distract you from the fact that Carolina is my Pick in this Fool's Gold that is begging for Chicago money.

Pick 2 Atl at Phil (-3) - Say what? The league's remaining undefeated team is an underdog to a team who has limped to a 3-3 record, a team who hasn't won a game by more than two points? Both teams are coming off of a bye, but Andy Reid prepares as well on byes as he does on increasing the size of his thighs on a daily basis. Atlanta allows the 8th most yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are one of the better teams (5.1). I expect Vick to have his best game against the Falcons game (no turnovers). I also expect McCoy to have his best day of the year against the Falcons (only the Bills allow more than the Falcons' 5.2 per carry). Philly wins by two scores.

Other Picks: Det -1, Pitt -4.5 (Already bet TB +6.5)
Other Possibles: Dallas (if it gets up to 3+), Denver -6 (NO has had 3 straight covers), Mia +2 (NYJ has had 3 straight covers), KC -2


Limited NCAA leans: Penn St, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Nebraska. With my bad Saturdays lately, I'm looking to cut back. Feeling my NFL roll right now

#BolekBestBets - NFL Week 2/NCAA Week 3

Week 2 NFL Theme - Redemption Song


Yikes!

Looking to sing the Redemption Song this week after a bad start to my NFL gambling  in Week 1

I hope you didn't follow my bets from the blog last week, at least the NFL ones. I went 3-1 on the NCAA picks, but my overall NFL record was a perfect mess.

On the Sunday bets, I recorded an 0-6 record. I didn't end up betting the Colts (which was obviously a good thing).

Here's a rundown of my bets from Sunday and how bad they lost by the spread:

KC Moneyline (lost to Atlanta 40-24) -16
Ten +5 (lost to New England 34-13) -16
NO -8 (lost to Washington 40-32) - 16
GB -6 (lost to San Fran 30-22) - 14
Car/TB over 45.5 (26 combined points) - 19.5
Pitt/Den under 45 (50 combined points) - 5

If you average those out, I lost my bets by over two touchdowns PER BET. I admit it was easier to stomach being completely wrong on most of these than to squeak out losses on the games.

Luckily, MNF I was up a little bit, going 3-2 with my bets (won first half Cin/Balt over, SD/Oak under, SD in-game next-score; lost Cin +7, in-game Cin/Balt under).

The good thing is - I remain confident and am not just firing bets out there at random. No steam bets, no large wagers to chase losses, none of that shit. Too many times, I used to do that, only to dig myself a bigger hole.

Let's look at next week, shall we?

Fool's Gold - Week 2

All right, all right, all right!

Last week's fool's gold highlighted (or in retrospect, lowlighted) Tennessee Titans as having a good shot of covering/beating the Patriots, who much of the public was craving to bet. That, of course, is the theme of Fool's Gold. This is meant to highlight a particular game that the average Joe Public bettor thinks is "just too good of a line to pass up", only to realize he was wrong in his assessment.

Looks like my foolish ass was wrong in Week 1, but I look to change that in Week 2. There are several good candidates this week. I considered Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston; Seattle +3.5 vs. Dallas; and St Louis +3.5 vs. Washington, but this week, I want to highlight the ultimate Fool's Gold pick, a rare road underdog that has the love of the general public.

Baltimore enters Week 2 as a popular pick with Vegas spotting them 2 points against the Philadelphia Eagles, who struggled to beat a Cleveland Browns team considered by many to be one of the worst teams in the league. On paper, you're thinking, "What the hell? The Ravens are +2 after their impressive win on Monday Night Football versus a team who barely beat the Browns?"

Several reasons to reconsider your Ravens pick

1. Isolated Game Perception. The Ravens played under the lights of Monday Night Football, which definitely helps shape people's perspective than your average Sunday early game. This goes for any isolated game, which is the only game in town - thus, the average person is likely to consume that game than any particular game on Sunday before the NBC game. What you saw was the Ravens look great, and likely, all you saw of the Eagles game (unless you watched it on DirecTV) was the final score and the stats, which clearly disappointed you since you own a couple Eagles in fantasy football.
2. Letdown Game. Similar theory to 1, except this includes the fact that last week, besides being Week 1 on MNF, was that it is a division game. I expect there to be a letdown playing an out-of-division foe  (like the Ravens experienced in Week 2 last year after destroying the Steelers in Week 1).
3. The Eagles are good. The Eagles aren't favorites for no reason. The Eagles were still in division contention last year despite their pitiful 4-8 start. Entering this year, they were considered the second or third best team in the NFC based on chance to make it to the Super Bowl. They got great talent at all of the skill positions. Vick is probably over-rated (not an elite QB), but he's still better than most QBs overall. They also have a pretty good defense. I attribute the offense's struggles in Week 1 more to the imbalance of the offense (2:1 pass/run ratio, despite having one of the most talented RBs in the league). I expect McCoy to get more carries this week, which should open up the pass game a little.
4. Short Week for Ravens. Granted, this is probably one of the weaker reasons for backing the Eagles, but it could come into play.

Fool's Gold Pick: Philly -2 over Baltimore

Fool's Gold YTD: 0-1

Elimination Pool Pick: I forgot to add this feature last week. Week 1, I squeaked out a Detroit Lions win over the Rams. Week 2, I'm going with the lay-up pick: New England

Elimination Pool Pick(s) to Avoid: I believe that Dallas & Houston will be challenged this week.

Other NFL Week 2 Picks

Jax +7 vs Houston - Gabbert has a new "I may actually not suck" aura about him now. MJD should be sharper. I have a great gut feel for this one. May even take Jax money line.

Seattle +3.5 vs Dallas - Everyone is hammering the Cowboys after their impressive win in the league opener in Week 1 (possible isolated game perception by the public). Seattle is an improved team this year, plus their stadium, known for the 12th man for their loud crowd noise, is a hard place to place.

StL +3.5 vs. Wash - Who got the most coverage this past week in the NFL? RGIII. Who currently has one of the highest percentage of bets placed for this week? Washington. St. Louis had Detroit, a playoff team, on the ropes in their road opener. The Rams are an improved team (QB is healthy, experienced coach, good 2012 draft). I expect the public to be way wrong on this one.

Considering...Denver +3 at Atlanta; New Orleans/Carolina Over; KC +3 at Buffalo

Week 1: (4-9, -5.215 units)

NFL YTD: (5-11, -6.315 units) - includes GB/Chi bets

(Check my Twitter for my latest picks) @BrianBolek

NCAA Week 3 picks

Ohio State -16.5 over Cal - Urban Meyer is a covering monster in his coaching career for nonconference games (35-8 record - 81%). Plus, this is a really early game for Cal (9am Pacific time). I expect OSU to roll by 3+ scores. Already bet this (1.07 to win 1 unit)

Northwestern -3.5 over BC - Both teams are closing their non-conference schedules out. Both are coming off of impressive wins. I like NU's wins better (at Syracuse, who looked good against top-ranked USC, vs Vandy, who looked good against highly ranked South Carolina) compared to BC's only win last week. I'm gonna wait on this game and see if it goes down to -3 (always want to get the best line if possible). If not, I'll likely take it at -3.5 or 4.
UL-Monroe +16.5 over Auburn - Some people might be afraid that UL-Monroe was a fluke and could have a letdown here, but if you look at the stat sheet, they just flat out beat Arkansas everywhere (yards 550-377, first downs 30-21, almost a 2/1 possession ratio). I haven't seen Auburn play this year, but everything I've read/heard about Auburn is that they're just not that good this year. Auburn will likely win, but I think it will be a struggle.

Might add a few more NCAA games - haven't looked too closely at the schedule yet. I'll be at a family function tomorrow, so I may not bet too many games tomorrow outside of those.

Week 2: (3-1, +2.93 units)

NCAA YTD: (11-5, +6.035 units)

Football combined: (16-16, -0.28 units)

Enjoy the football weekend everyone.

The Ultimate Bolek NFL Preview - 2012 Edition

Mugshot of Marshawn Lynch after his DUI arrest

Has your favorite NFL player been convicted of a crime this offseason? If he hasn't, then he's not trying as hard as he should.

With 27 NFL players being cuffed for some type of offense in the past five months, there's a chance that you're a fan of one of these players. In the past couple weeks alone, Adrian Peterson, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch, among like 900 others, had some sort of DUI or altercation that seems to be an epidemic as the season approaches.

Aside from that, there were the usual free agent moves. Peyton joining the Mile High Club by heading to the Broncos. Like Kevin Kolb of last year, Matt Flynn cashed in on a couple good starts and signs with an NFC West team desperate for a quarterback. And despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants are somehow not the talk of New York, as some team who shares a stadium with them traded for a polarizing fullback quarterback that will surely add some drama to an already contentious locker room.

The questions you want to know will be answered below. For my Bears fans, what should you expect from this season? Will my Niners regress this year after a sterling 2011 season that saw them win their first division in almost a decade?

An amazing fact found in this article shows that history is against the Niners (and the Lions & Texans) when it comes to teams who rebounded from sub-.500 records one year to double digit wins the next. Out of the 29 teams who have done this in the past decade, 26 of them regressed to 9 or less wins in year 3. In fact, the average team in this situation loses 4 more games in year 3 than they did in year 2.

I've included my predictions along with what offshore sportsbook 5Dimes is projecting from each team.

Aside from the fact above about regression, if you're betting on totals in the NFL, it's a very profitable angle to bet on the Over for teams projected for less than 6 wins. Keep that in mind if you think that betting on Cleveland, Indianapolis & Jacksonville unders are a layup of a bet.

NFL Predictions

AFC East

Mr GQ will have no problem winning the AFC East

NE (Over/Under 12 wins) - prediction: over (13)
NYJ (Over/Under  8.5) - prediction: under (6)
Buff (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (10)
Mia (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: under (6)

(Predicted finish: NE 13-3, Buff 10-6, NYJ 6-10, Mia 6-10)


Thoughts: On average, there's about 2 or 3 teams every year that go from losing records to double digit wins. In my projection, I have Buffalo being one of those teams. They made a commitment on the defensive end, shoring up their passing rush by signing defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and focused on defense in the first round of the draft. I still don't think they'll be a match for New England, who should continue to be the darlings of the AFC East. I expect the Jets to finish below .500 - I just don't see how having a plan to use two quarterbacks consistently is not going to be a locker room distraction.


AFC North


Pitt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Balt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Cin (Over/Under 8) - prediction: under (7)
Cle (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Pitt 11-5, Balt 9-7, Cin 7-9, Cle 6-10)


Thoughts: If Polamalu & Big Ben stay healthy, I expect the Steelers to win back the AFC North from Baltimore, who lost Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs to a torn Achilles (currently rehabbing it, but likely to miss significant time at the very least). Baltimore should still be a playoff caliber team, but a dip in wins wouldn't surprise me. I expect Cincinnati to have a slight regression in Year 2 of the Andy Dalton era. I think Cleveland will be more competitive than normal, although for them, that still means only about 6 wins.


AFC South


Hou (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Ten (Over/Under 7) - prediction: push (7)
Jax (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: under (3)
Ind (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Hou 11-5, Ten 7-9, Indy 6-10, Jax 3-13)


Thoughts: Outside of the AFC East, this looks like the easiest division to project. Jacksonville & Indianapolis are clearly in rebuilding mode, with the Titans sandwiched in-between them and the Texans, who will likely win their second straight division title after not making the playoffs in their first nine years of existence. They won the division with relative ease last year, and that was without Matt Schaub down the stretch. I expect the Texans to take the next step and be a Super Bowl contender this year.


AFC West


SD (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Den (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: under (7)
KC (Over/Under 8) - prediction: over (10)
Oak (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)


(Predicted finish: KC 10-6, Oak 8-8, SD 7-9, Den 7-9)

Gonna be weird seeing Peyton in orange (and out of the playoffs)

Thoughts: This division has been one of the hardest for me to read and project, but I think the Chiefs will get back to the top of the division. They lost so many folks in the very beginning of 2011 to various ligament tears that they never really had a chance - they somehow rebounded to come close to winning the very weak AFC West. The defensive minded coach (Romeo Crennel) will make a better impression in his second time around as head coach. I don't trust the Chargers to suddenly start doing great under Norv Turner, whose naked pictures of the GM and owners of the team (presumably anyways) allow him to keep coaching the team. I don't think the Broncos have enough talent around Peyton, who himself is coming off a year layoff and his third neck surgery and is nearing NFL extinction. I'll probably come back to eat these words when Peyton throws for 40 TDs.




AFC Playoffs (1-6 seeds): NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buff, Balt




NFC East


Phil (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (12)
NYG (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (7)
Dal (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: over (9)
Wash (Over/Under 6.5) - prediction: over (7)


(Predicted Finish: Phil 12-4, Dal 9-7, NYG 7-9, Wash 7-9)


Thoughts: I'm drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid for the second year in a row. Unlike last year though, I feel like I'll be right this time around. I don't doubt their chances to win the division as long as Vick can stay healthy, which has always been a question for him in his career. I think the Giants will take a big step back (note how I didn't go with the pun of GIANT step back). Dallas will be on the fringe of the playoffs again, and Tony Romo will be to blame (as always). RGIII will bring some life to a Redskins franchise that hasn't been a perennial contender for the playoffs since the late 80s/early 90s.


NFC North


GB (Over/Under 12) - prediction: under (11)
Det (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (9)
Chi (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: over (11)
Min (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)

If I have anything to say, these two will be all smiles come January

(Predicted Finish: Chicago 11-5 (wins tiebreaker), Green Bay 11-5, Det 9-7, Min 4-12)


Thoughts: My Bears friends are probably going to blame me if they fail to live up to higher than normal expectations, but I believe they got better pieces than last year and should benefit from better health w/ Cutler and Forte (who with his new contract, hopefully will not suffer from Chris Johnsonitis), which is what cost them a chance at the playoffs down the stretch last year. Their defense is never something that needs questioning, as that has been Lovie's forte (pun somewhat intended). Green Bay's offense hid some of the flaws that their defense showed last year. The offense should still be its juggernaut self, but I believe that with the rest of the division (save Minnesota) is catching up with them, it will be difficult for them to get over 12 wins.


NFC South

Expect to see this shirt (or a version of it) worn all year in NO

New Orleans (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Atlanta (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Carolina (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (9)
Tampa (Over/Under 6) - prediction: push (6)


(Predicted Finish: New Orleans 11-5, Carolina 9-7, Atlanta 7-9, Tampa 6-10)


Thoughts: At first, I was on the bandwagon that New Orleans would be distracted this season by the bounty stuff and miss out on the playoffs. However, the more I thought about it and realized that New Orleans' home field is going to be even more crazy with their "us against the world" mentality that they have with their coach being suspended for the year, the more I thought to myself - I could easily see them go 7-1 or even 8-0 again at home, especially with the way Brees slings it. I expect Carolina to take a big step forward and Atlanta take a step back, which will result in Mike Smith being fired at the end of the year.


NFC West

San Fran (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Arizona (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)
Seattle (Over/Under 7) - prediction: under (5)
St. Louis (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)


(Predicted Finish: San Fran 9-7, Arizona 8-8, Seattle 5-11, St. Louis 4-12)

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Randy Moss making a big impact for the Niners

Thoughts: San Francisco benefited from an improbable +28 turnover ratio and great health last year (only 8 total games missed by defensive starters). The turnover rate will go down, but it's possible that the lack of defensive injuries will not. I found that the Niners' string of "luck" in the health dept is no fluke - between 2008-2010, the starters only missed 16 total games on defense: source. Even though with their signings on offense are pointing towards an improvement in production, I expect a regression for Alex Smith (17 TDs, 5 picks last year) which will negate some of the signings. Arizona finished the season out strong with John Skelton behind center, winning 7 of their last 9 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the Week 17 showdown between the Niners and the Cardinals is for the division title.

NFC Playoffs (1-6 Seeds): Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det




AFC Wild Card: Pitt over Balt, KC over Buff
NFC Wild Card: Chi over Det, GB over SF
AFC Divisionals: Hou over Pitt, NE over KC
NFC Divisionals:  Phil over GB, NO over Chi


AFC Championship: Hou over NE
NFC Championship: Phil over NO


Super Bowl: Phil over Hou


League MVP: Mike Vick (Phil)
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees (NO)
Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers (Chi)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (Indy)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Morris Claiborne (Dallas)

Thoughts: Out of these 12 playoff teams, I guarantee I miss on 6 of them, maybe more. I went with the rule of thumb that there's usually about 4 new division winners from the previous year (I got Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Chicago & Philly fitting that bill). After my blog earlier last month about teams with value, I think New Orleans may have tremendous value on winning the Super Bowl, especially since the Big Game is in their home stadium. Imagine the noise that the AFC squad would have to deal with. I may make a futures bet on the Saints before the season starts, because it will get lower if they make a strong push as they did last year). If I could take that blog back, I'd have them as my best value team.

I'm expecting Vick to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl title this year

Why the Eagles winning it all? I think I'm falling prey to how they closed and their overall level of talent at the skill positions. Maclin had medical issues that prevented him from being effective like he was in 2010. This prediction will probably flame out badly. Vick has problems staying healthy, but if he does, I think he will live up to his dumb comments (at least for one year) about the Eagles being a possible dynasty.

Why the Texans over Patriots in the AFC Championship? Lately it seems that the Patriots fall a step short and have one lackluster playoff game that does them in. I'm projecting that from them in this game, as the Texans will pull off an upset and make it to the Super Bowl.

Strange as it sounds, I still may opt to bet for the Saints to win it all instead of the Eagles.

Odds are, there will be a few teams that catch everyone off-guard. I only picked 4 new teams to make the playoffs compared to last year - usually it changes by 6-7 teams. So if I didn't pick your team to make it there, you have some hope.

Enjoy your NFL seasons, and I'm sure I'll be back throughout the year to critique or praise my predictions.

My Surprise NFL Playoff Team & Week 14 picks

At this time last year, the NFC West was being led by a pair of 5-7 teams (St. Louis and Seattle), who would end up facing each other in Week 17 as a pair of 6-9 teams dueling for the right to become the first NFL team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record.

A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.

Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.

However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.

Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.

Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.

Breakdown of Seattle schedule

Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.

Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.

Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.

Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).

Predicting the Future

Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.

The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.

In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas

AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.

Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs

Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.

Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.

Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.

Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.

Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.

Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.

Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5

Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!