The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs

From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.

Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.

But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.

So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:

• Those who have already won a Super Bowl
• Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
• Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
• Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title

If we break it down like this, here's how it would look, using the active list of quarterbacks. Note that in cases where the QB may not be known, I am either taking an educated guess as to who the starter will be or counting the QBs in the battle as one QB:

(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs

• Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco
  
  Notes: Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).
  
  It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.

(2) Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win (no particular order) - 6 QBs

• Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
  
  Notes: You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.
  
  The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.

(3) Those who have less talent but could win it with the right cast of characters (no particular order) - 8 QBs

•  Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
  
  Notes: The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.
  
  Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.
  
  Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.
  
  Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.
  
  Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.
  
  Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.
  
  Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).
  
  Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.
  
  Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 (4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs

• Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
  
  Notes: Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.
  
  Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.

So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.

The History of the Super Bowl MVP: Facts & Thoughts for This Year

A couple days away from Super Bowl XLVII (47 for us non-Romans). Anyone who knows me knows that I am super-psyched about this game being a 49ers fan.

And like almost every Super Bowl in the past 6-7 years, I'm a gambling man. There's so many freaking things you can bet on (more on this in a blog coming up later this week before the game). One of the things you can bet on is who will win the Super Bowl MVP.

This award favors the quarterback, as 25 of 47 winners (there was one Super Bowl w/ a co-MVP) lined up behind center to win the award. The past three Super Bowl winners had a QB win the award.

So naturally, the two favorites to win the award are both QBs (Colin Kaepernick is +140 and Joe Flacco is +250). This means for every 10 dollars you bet on Kaepernick, you'd profit $14, with a similar sized wager on Flacco netting you 25 bucks.

These are the safest bets to make, but who wants to be safe, especially when it comes to gambling? I delved into the history of the Super Bowl MVP and what the average QB who won the award did to win it. I also wanted to see what it took for a non-QB to win the award. The defensive winners (8 in total) were hard to find definitive stats for, so I wanted to focus more on the running backs and wide receivers who stole the honors from the quarterbacks.

So here goes nothing:

For the QB MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 25 winning MVP QBs: 20-for-30, 269 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 int.
• Out of the first 9 QBs to win the MVP, none of them completed more than 17 passes or threw more than 30 times. In this time period, the average QB went 14-for-23, 218 yards, 1.7 TD, 0.6 int
• Since then (since the 1985 Super Bowl - XIX), the 16 QBs have averaged 23-for-35, 298 yards, 2.7 TDs, 0.4 int
• Yardage totals for MVP winners range from Roger Staubach's 119 in Super Bowl VI to Kurt Warner's 414 in Super Bowl XXXIV. The lowest total since Staubach's was Tom Brady's first go-around as MVP, only netting 145 passing yards in the Patriots' upset of the St. Louis Rams.

For the QB non-MVP winners:

• The average stats for the 22 non-winning MVP QBs: 14-for-24, 184 yards, 1 TD, 0.6 int.
• From Super Bowl I-XIX in which the QB didn't win MVP, the average stats for these QBs: 12-for-19, 141 yards, 1.1 TDs, 0.7 int
• Since Super Bowl XX, the non-winning QBs averaged 17-28, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 int
• In the back-to-back Super Bowls that Miami won in the 1970s, Bob Greise went 14-for-18 with 161 yards and a TD and an interception...in both games combined! Could you imagine a QB throwing this little nowadays and winning a Super Bowl in just one game, yet alone two? 

So what does it take for a non-QB to win the MVP? We'll focus on the offensive players:

Running Backs (7 winners)

• The seven running back winners have averaged 29 carries, 150 yards and 2 TDs. This stat means that basically the workhorse running back is the only type who can win the award.
• The lowest number of carries for a MVP RB is 20 carries (Marcus Allen), with John Riggins' 38 carries leading the way for MVP running backs.
• There has not been a running back MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis totaled 157 yards in Super Bowl XXXII.

Wide Receivers (6 winners)

• The average MVP wide-out has averaged about 7 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown to snag the award. Overall, the six winners were responsible for 799 of their QB's 1361 yards (59%) and 3 of their 8 TDs (Note: Hines Ward did not catch his 43-yard TD from Big Ben - see below)
• It should be noted that three of these six winners have come in the last 8 years (Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes)
• These three recent winners averaged 113 yards/game (not counting Ward's catch from the WR), while their QBs averaged 205 yards.
• In Super Bowl XL, Hines Ward had as many yards receiving as Roethlisberger had passing (123 yards). This occurred thanks to a trick play from the arm of Antwaan Randle-El to Ward for a 43 yard touchdown - this means Roethlisberger only netted 43 yards total from receivers not named Hines Ward.

Defensive Players (8 winners)

• As mentioned above, records aren't that great when it comes to what defensive players did to earn their MVPs.
• For the three secondary players to win the award, all three had exactly two interceptions each. The latest of which was 10 years ago when Dexter Jackson snatched two Rich Gannon passes.
• There have also been three linemen/tackles to win it. Two of these guys shared the award (Harvey Martin & Randy White in Super Bowl XII for the winning Dallas Cowboys). The other was Richard Dent, who had two sacks and two forced fumbles in the Bears' rout of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
• Only two linebackers have won the award: Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V & the one-and-only Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XXXV.

Other (1 winner)

• There was also the lone special teams guy to win the award. Desmond Howard earned the award in Super Bowl XXXI with some great returns (244 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return).

This begs the question...

What players have value if betting the Super Bowl MVP? Based on the recent data, the wide receiver position has the best value for MVP. Running backs need an amazing game, including a lot of carries, to take away the MVP from QBs. Gore has a better shot to get 20+ carries than Rice, but I'm eliminating both since no RB has won this in 15 years.

For this bet, you would want to target a guy who has a chance to get around 60% of his QB's total yards.

This leaves three realistic long-shots to win the Super Bowl MVP:

Torrey Smith 17/1

Michael Crabtree 18/1

Anquan Boldin 20/1

If you think the Ravens will win, I would personally look to take Smith. He has the best big-play potential (17 yards/catch & 8 TDs vs. Boldin's 14 yards/catch & 4 TDs this year).

However, with me taking the Niners in this game, I am going to make Michael Crabtree my Super Bowl MVP bet.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts including the playoffs, 37% of his yards (771 of 2104) and 7 of his 13 TD passes have gone to Crabtree. This includes five games where Crabtree accumulated 45% or more of Kaepernick's yards.

Defending the Award

If you think this will be a defensive battle, you may want to considering looking for long-shot defensive players to win the award. Ray Lewis is priced out of this (only 8/1 odds, terrible for a position that's only won the award twice in 46 Super Bowls). I'd suggest looking at the following players if you sense a struggle:

1. Ed Reed 35/1 (If he picks a couple passes, this is possible. With his ball-hawking skills, he could also return one for a TD)
2. Patrick Willis 45/1 (His odds were at 90/1 earlier this week). If this is a low-scoring game, Willis will likely have his fingerprints on the game.
3. Aldon Smith 70/1 (He hasn't had a sack since Week 14. All of his 19.5 sacks came in the 13 games before then, including 5 games with multiple sacks. If the score stays low and he can get a couple sacks, including a turnover, Smith could win it)
4. Terrell Suggs 75/1 (He hasn't been the dominant player he was last year when he took the defensive player of the year honors, but Suggs is still worth a look. His best game this season came against Denver in the Divisional Round, notching 10 tackles/2 sacks, so perhaps he has a little juice in the tank for a great game against the Niners.

2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend

As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.

Random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
2. Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
3. Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
4. One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
5. The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
6. Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
7. The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
8. After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.

Championship Games

I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:

• This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
• There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
• Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
• San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
• The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.

Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:

1. Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
2. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
3. Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.

With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.

New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).