Sox To Be You: How the South Siders Have Fared Recently in Last Month of MLB Season

At this moment, I should be getting ready to go to a White Sox playoff game. At least that's what my hope was when I bought tickets to Game 1 of the ALDS a couple weeks ago.

However, as the White Sox have done many times over in the past decade, they faded into the sunset as Detroit's pitching hit their stride which helped them overtake Chicago without looking back.

It'll be tough to watch the Tigers when I thought a couple weeks ago it was going to be the White Sox, but I'll get over it. The expectations weren't too high for the year, but as the team starts to prove your expectations wrong, you start to slightly adjust your thoughts. Other White Sox fans - you can't tell me that your expectations didn't change when you saw them enter the All-Star break with the lead. Even though we weren't expected to win the division, I am very disappointed because down the stretch, I did expect to win it.

Here's an example of how the White Sox have done since 2000 before September and in September:

	Entering Sept
	Record	Place	Games Back or Ahead
2001	68-65	3rd	Down 7.5 games	to Cleveland
2002	65-70	2nd	Down 14 games	to Minnesota
2003	73-64	1st	Up 1.5 games	to Minnesota
2004	64-66	3rd	Down 8.5 games	to Minnesota
2005	80-51	1st	Up 7 games	to Cleveland
2006	78-56	2nd	Down 4.5 games	to Det
2007	57-78	5th	Down 20.5 games	to Cleveland
2008	77-59	T-1st	Up 1/2 game	to Minnesota
2009	64-68	3rd	Down 6 games	to Det
2010	72-60	2nd	Down 4 games	to Minnesota
2011	68-66	3rd	Down 6 games	to Det
2012	72-59	1st	Up 2 games	to Det

And here's how things ended in Sept/Oct

					Champ
	Sep/Oct	Final Record	Final Finish	Final Games Back/Ahead	or 2nd
2001	(15-14)	83-79	3rd place	Down 8 games	Cleveland
2002	(16-11)	81-81	2nd place	Down 13.5 games	Minnesota
2003	(13-12)	86-76	2nd place	Down 4 games	Minnesota
2004	(19-13)	83-79	2nd place	Down 9 games	Minnesota
2005	(19-12)	99-63	1st place	Up by 6 games	Cleveland
2006	(12-16)	90-72	3rd place	Down 6 games	Minnesota
2007	(15-12)	72-90	4th place	Down 24 games	Cleveland
2008	(12-15)	89-74	1st place	won division (1 gm playoff)	Minnesota
2009	(15-15)	79-83	3rd place	Down 7 games	Detroit/Minn
2010	(16-14)	88-74	2nd place	Down 6 games	Minnesota
2011	(11-14)	79-83	3rd place	Down 16 games	Detroit
2012	(12-18)	85-77	2nd place	Down 3 games	Detroit

In this twelve year span, the team in first place entering September has won eight out of the 12 division titles. The White Sox (2003, 2012) and Detroit (2006, 2009 - lost tiebreaker to Minn) were the teams who blew their division leads in the last month.

If you notice, the only year the White Sox gained ground on the competition closest to them was in 2002, when they gained that magical half game to finish 13.5 back of the Twins. You can say 2006 was gaining, but the Sox needed a one-game playoff to win the division.

Otherwise, in the past 12 years, we haven't seen a year where the White Sox had a better record than the team they are chasing or who is chasing them. Since the World Series win in 2005, they've barely broken .500 a couple times but otherwise have dragged to the finish line.

Sure, the Cubs are known as Completely Useless By September to the folks who like to stir up the White Sox/Cubs "rivalry", but when it comes to September, the White Sox have been pretty much completely useless.

You can tell me that this year was better than expected, and the March/April version of me would agree with you. But the September/October version of me feels like they let the fans down, And with how they've had problems closing out seasons as of late, you can't blame me for being disappointed.

A Better Bettor: #BolekBestBets Returns! NFL Week 5

Sometimes you need a period of time to clear your head after a bad stretch of time in life or a major event that crushes you emotionally. My time to myself wasn't relating to a life-or-death topic, but it did require me to take a step back.

Of course, if you read last week, you'd know I'm referencing my gambling. I had to take a week away from it to reflect on how bad I did and what I can do to become a better bettor.

In my bad run, one thing I am proud of is that I did not "chase" (or bet bigger to "chase" the losses I had in the week) - otherwise, my bad run a few weeks ago would have been an ugly site. The double down theory is not a good one when you lose 21 of 26 bets in a week.

In my week off, I realized several things

(1) I need to become more disciplined. This means not always needing to bet something every day. This is  typically a losing strategy for an inexperienced gambler who needs to create action every day. If you can find a good line, bet it. If you can't, lay off.

(2) Less bets might be better. Sometimes, I've been making bets on lines that I somewhat like when I should be focusing on lines that I really like or love. Being more selective should help me out.

(3) I don't need bets to enjoy NFL. Actually, I don't need fantasy football either, but I know that's not leaving my life anytime soon, so why fight it? Watching Week 4 of the NFL without a single wager was refreshing - I was actually able to enjoy the games on their own merit as opposed to rooting for particular outcomes. Even though I'm going back to wagering on some games, it makes me happy to say that I know I don't need gambling (or fantasy football) to enjoy NFL.

Note: Even though I may be down in my lifetime gambling, in the past couple years, I have made a concerted effort to become a better gambler and make it a very small part of my yearly income)

Without further ado, here's some lines that stick out this weekend and the games I'll be betting.

Balt  at Kansas City +6 (Fools Gold Pick) - This game has Fool's Gold written all over it. If you look at KC's numbers, they have outgained their opponents in all four games. Their 1-3 record is more the result of a -13 (yes, -13) turnover differential. That's one of those stats that tends to even out at some point. I think KC will pull off the upset despite John Harbaugh's spotless record against the spread after an extended rest in his short coaching career. KC has a desperation feel to it too. I'll be betting this on Sunday.

StL +2 vs. Arizona - Game tonight. Just bet it. So far, NFC West teams are 8-0 (7-1 if you count the Seahawks "win" as a loss vs the Packers) at home this year. Cardinals escaped with a win last week to remain unbeaten, but the travel on a short week usually favors the home team, who didn't have to go anywhere Sunday night.

Cle +8.5 at NYG - I should have bet this when it opened at +10, but I was still in hiatus phase. I may lay off, but I think Cleveland is better than their 0-4 record shows. They impressed against Baltimore last week, with the game almost going into overtime had they completed a pass with no time left. Plus, NYG is coming off a tough divisional game and doesn't usually cover big spreads at home.

SF -9.5 vs. Buff - I'm playing emotional factor here as well. Buffalo has to feel decimated after feeling like they had the division lead and a 2-game cushion on the Patriots at the tip of their fingers. Dating back to last year, San Fran has won 9 of its last 10 home games (only loss was to NYG), with covers in all of the straight up victories. I look for San Fran to romp on Sunday.

Lines I'm looking at/considering: NO -4, Den +6

NCAA Week 6

Northwestern +2.5, Purdue +3, Ariz +9.5

Have a good day and good luck with your teams/bets this week.

MLB - A Look Back (Preseason Predictions) & A Look Forward (Playoff Preview)

Note: I wrote most of this on Saturday (Sept 29th) under the notion that the White Sox fade would continue (it did), but I did not expect the Athletics to steal the division away from the Rangers, so my predictions are edited as such.

Please feel free to offer your own post-season predictions. Enjoy.

Good day to you all. I hope you enjoyed the end of the baseball season as much as I did - except for the White Sox not making the playoffs part. For a team that was projected to win about 75 games, they held their own most of the season, but the Tigers' last season surge timed out perfectly with the White Sox Swoon.

Before breaking down the playoffs, I'd like to see how well my projections from late February ended up turning out.

Here's a look at it, just so you have proof: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2012/02/were-talkin-baseball-2012-mlb-preview.html


PLAYOFFS?!?
What went right: Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals
What went wrong: Marlins, Phillies, Angels, Rays
Who replaced the wrong: Braves, Reds, A's, Orioles

Notes: I had the Nats as a Wild Card and Cardinals as a division champion - but they both made the playoffs, so I'm happy to get it somewhat right. The Nationals surprised even the most optimistic of people on what they did this year. Question is - will the shutting down of Strasburg hurt them in the playoffs? Short series requires good pitching - one less great pitcher has to diminish their chances of winning it all.  I'd love to see the Reds advance to the World Series (I made a bet in early August for them to win it all at 10/1 odds), but I wonder if they have enough consistent arms to face the Giants, who have developed into a well-rounded team who have somehow gotten better without Mr. Testosterone (Melky Cabrera).

Can you believe that during the season, the Athletics were as high as 100/1 just to win their division? This was at the beginning of July when the Athletics were a season-high 13 games back from Texas. At that time, Oakland was 37-42 - they would go on to close the season on a 57-26 run to overtake the Rangers in the AL West. I like this team, but I don't like their draw (vs. Detroit). I see Detroit taking the series in 4.

Miguel Cabrera: From triple the legal limit (maybe not that high) to Triple Crown

The Tigers woke up in September after being out of first for pretty much the whole year. I have my money on the Rangers and A's to win the World Series (among 5 teams I bet - others include the Reds, Phillies and D-Backs), so I'm obviously rooting for one of them to make it there and win it all. However, I have the Tigers pegged as my AL favorites now. Getting two starts from Verlander (should the series go long), arguably the best starting pitcher remaining in the playoffs, with the lineup they have, I think they'll be able to overtake the Rangers this year and advance to the playoffs.

OVER/UNDERS (Total projected wins & my predictions)

How I did: 17-13

My best division was the NL West, which I was able to project 4 out of 5 teams totals correctly (missing on the Padres, who I had going under their projected total of 73.5). I also did well with the AL West, missing only on the Mariners.

I did below average with projecting the AL Central team's over/unders (I got the White Sox over & Twins under right).

I didn't guess any of the 30 teams exact records, but I was within 3 wins on ten separate teams.

The teams I did the worst predictions for: Baltimore 65 wins (won 93, "only" 28 wins off), Miami 92 wins (won 69 - 23 off), Oakland 74 wins (they won 94), Boston 87 wins (they won 69) and Cincy 80 wins (won 97). I find it funny that I have World Series bets alive with two of these teams


Individual Predictions:

What went right: Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP; David Price for AL Cy Young
What went wrong: Hanley for NL MVP; Halladay for NL Cy; Stanton for NL HR leader; Jose Bautista (in the Feb preview, I put Jose Cabrera, so perhaps I should get half credit for forgetting his name like a dumbass)

Notes: These votes won't be known till next month, but I feel good about Cabrera's chances of winning the MVP - he'd be the second Tiger in a row to win the MVP (Verlander). Likewise, Price is among a few AL pitchers who should be considered for the Cy (Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver - hell, Verlander with a "down" year compared to 2011 should also be considered).

When I went all-in with the Marlins, I set myself up for failure when thinking Hanley might win MVP this year. Even when healthy this year, Halladay wasn't Cy Young material. Stanton did finish top-5 in the NL in home runs, but finished way behind Ryan Braun. Jose Bautista (or Jose Cabrera as I called him in Feb) was doing well before getting hurt in July (averaging a HR every 15/16 at bats). He may have had a chance to win it. Oh well. I guess the Hanley & Roy predictions were the only really bad ones.

2012 Playoff Predictions (Version 3.0):

AL Wild Card (one game playoff): Rangers over O's (as long as it's not a one-run game or goes into extras)
NL Wild Card (one game playoff): Braves over Cards (Kris Medlen doesn't lose)

AL Divisional Round: Tigers over A's (I hope I'm wrong here); Rangers over Yanks
NL Divisional Round: Giants over Reds (I hope I'm wrong here too); Braves over Nationals

ALCS: Tigers over Rangers (initial prediction: Yankees over Tigers)
NLCS: Giants over Braves (initial prediction: Marlins over Giants)

World Series: Tigers over Giants (initial prediction: Marlins over Yankees)


Who I have left for World Series bets placed in-season (Rangers - 100 to win 450; A's - 30 to win 1200; Reds - 50 to win 500)

Man's (New) Best Friend(s) or: How the Hell Did I Become a Cat Person?

This weekend a year ago sticks out as clear to me as a weekend possibly could. Putting down man's best friend is no easy task for anyone, especially when that pet has been a staple of your family for a 15 year period.

Buddy (RIP) and Pixie

After I got home from bowling last night, I came home to a sleeping g/f who had work in about 6 hours, so I figured I'd hop on my computer for a little bit and watch some baseball highlights on mute. I knew that this was the weekend we put the old man down, but it wasn't until this silence in the early morning hour of the night (I know that doesn't make sense, but not sure what to call 2am) when I started thinking about every little detail from last year.

Around that time last year, it was when I shared one last Miller Lite with Buddy. It felt awkward sharing that beer with him, when I knew of his fate the next day but he didn't. Naturally, these thoughts brought some tears to my eyes.

Bella sleeping next to me moments after my reflections of Bud

And wouldn't you know? One of my new pets Bella, inherited when I moved in with Jen in June, hops up next to me as I have these sad thoughts and falls asleep (albeit briefly) on a spiral notebook sitting next to me.

The unusual thing about these new pets is that they're not dogs, but rather of the feline persuasion. Yes - I am now a person who lives with cats. And the timing last year of meeting/dating Jen right around the time we put Buddy down couldn't have worked out better. I've always been a pet person. Correction - I've always been a dog person, having always had one in my parent's homes for the first 29 years of my life.

The cats sharing rare moment of peace and friendliness together

I knew that Pixie (unfairly portrayed in this story as 'the other dog') wouldn't be enough to fill the void that Buddy's companionship left in my life. While the two cats still cannot compare in my mind to a childhood dog, it's remarkable in my eyes that I'm even mentioning these cats in the same breath as my old dog.

Once you live with the cats for a while and see how these particular cats warm up to you (well, her male cat Tenders is a whore to everyone while Bella is very selective in her love of humans), it's hard not to fall in love with them. Collectively, they are as close to dogs as I've ever seen any cats be with the affection they've shown me as I've gotten to know them the past year.

If you want to see how much these new pets of mine mean to me, all you have to do is look at the pictures in my phone to figure it out. Even pictures of Lauren's cat Tigger are plentiful in the phone.

While the void of Buddy (and dogs at our new place in general) is impossible for me to replace, the transition into a guy who has cats couldn't have went any smoother.

I can now say that I love cats. Or at least these ones (and Tigger too, Lauren). To be honest, those are the only ones I need to love.

Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5

Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.

I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.

I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.

After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.

It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.

It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.

Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.

It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.

I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.

In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.

Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.

It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).

Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.

The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.

Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.

Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.

Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.

Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".

There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.

Anywho....

As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen -  but I won't be backing these myself.

NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11

NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).

Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5

Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.

Have a good weekend.

Fantasy Football - Not Just A Guy's Game Anymore

(I wrote this article for a league I am in, which features about a half dozen female owners)

Do any of you girls jump in the air with your Urlacher jerseys when watching football? Yeah, I'm sure you do. I'd say I jump, but my vertical is negative inches. Yes - I sink when I try jumping.

Before this season, I had never been in a serious fantasy football league that had women in it. There was a league back at my old job that had a couple females, but that league was just to pass the time at a shitty job.

Now, I'm in two leagues where there is female presence. And they're not walkovers on the schedule for us guys in the league.

The day after Jen and I started going out last year, she gave me the password to her fantasy football team in this league. I believe it was her first competitive league, and it showed (sorry Ivy). Throughout the season, I tried helping making moves for her team to make it somewhat competitive. She had Stafford as her QB, but not much else around him.

This year? Her team is one of the best in our league, and no thanks to me really. Other ladies in the league have a presence as well. If they're anything like Ivy, they're checking their teams constantly on Sundays, asking their boyfriends/husbands/whatevers who they should start. She doesn't ask a lot though - so I give her all the credit for the managing and success of all of her teams. I hope all of you females are managing these teams independently for the most part.

This isn't your 1990s/2000s fantasy league with old guys who had to "meet" their "women" in AOL chat rooms. This is the new age fantasy football league: a pro game played by men but fantasied by men and women alike. A shot of estrogen has been added to leagues now, and I for one applaud this movement.

Almost as important all those other movements in American history. Almost.

NFL News & #BolekBestBets - NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4

Good afternoon NFL fans and betting buddies of mine.

I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.

Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:

1. Overreaction to Week 1 gives way to Overreaction to Week 2. If you live in the Chicago Bears market, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Week 1 - Bears destroy Colts and they're Super Bowl bound. Week 2 - they lose to the Packers (last I checked, the Packers are pretty damn good) and now the world is falling. This happened with a few teams (Packers, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, etc). Odds are, your team that rotated wins and losses in Week 1 with differing performances in the games is probably not as good as their win and not as bad as their loss shows. Calm down, take a breath, and enjoy the rest of the season.
2. Too much fluff on these sports shows. The fact that I heard that Eli threw for over 500 yards, which has only happened a handful of times in history, about 1000 times less than the last play spat between the coaches is pathetic. Why is so much time spent on stuff that has little/nothing to do with the outcome? Are we so dumb as sports fans that they're catering to our supposed need for this? I'd like to think most people I know are better than this. I care about results, what happened to get to those results (i.e. stats). I don't need TMZ-style analysis entering ESPN and other sports shows.
3. If you got a ring, it don't mean a thing. Tom Brady yells at his offensive line. Peyton Manning yells at his offensive line. Aaron Rodgers yells at his offensive line. Jay Cutler yells at his offensive line. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Jay Cutler.
   
   Peyton Manning makes a big mistake in a playoff game and throws a pick-6 to the Saints to help New Orleans seal their Super Bowl win years back. Despite having the best record in the past 7 years, Tom Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in that time. Tony Romo fumbles a field goal snap that costs his team a chance at winning a first round playoff game. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Tony Romo
   
   I'm not saying these guys (Romo and Cutler) shouldn't get blame for the mistakes that they make, but please have some perspective and realize that these other guys make mistakes too. If Peyton hadn't beaten the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears to win his lone Super Bowl, his mistake against the Saints would have been the main story of the Super Bowl, not the Saints winning their first Super Bowl.
   
   The media and general public tend to forgive the mistakes of QBs who have won Super Bowls. Keep in mind, there's only a handful of current QBs who have won a Super Bowl: Rodgers, both Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, Brees (six total QBs). Any QB not on this list who is considered good/great will eventually hear it from media/public if they fail to make the next step.
   

NCAA Week 4

K State +15
Baylor -8.5

Temple +7.5

USC -16.5

NFL Week 3

Fool's Gold Pick (0-2 so far) Oakland +4

San Fran -6.5 (falling for the trap)

NE +2 (or ML)

Cle +3

Ariz +3.5

Dal -7.5

I'm out of Survivor League for Don after picking New England like a sucker. If I was still alive today, I'd pick Dallas this week.

I don't have updated records - but for NFL, I know they're bad. I won my under bet last night, so I'm hoping I can get some betting momentum heading into the next couple weeks.

Good luck to everyone this week on bets and fantasy.