B-Bo's 2013 (Way Way Too Early) NFL Preview

Every year, it seems like this blog comes earlier and earlier in the summer. And this year, it's technically before the Summer Solstice.

Why, it's the initial B-Bo Knows NFL preview blog, sponsored by (insert your company name here, I'm talking to you Cialis).

Initial thoughts of NFL entering this year...I may change this before the season, depending on injuries, etc.:

Teams that I expect to exceed their projected win totals by 2+ this year:

1. New Orleans - With Sean Payton returning to the helm, I expect the order to be restored in New Orleans. I'm expecting a first-round bye for the Saints and a return to the Super Bowl.

2. Carolina - Cam Newton got a lot of crap last year from the media for their poor start, but did not receive the proper credit for making the Panthers a competitive team down the stretch of 2012. I believe he will carry them into the playoffs in 2013.

3. Cleveland - While I don't believe Brandon Weeden will become a Pro-Bowl QB, I do think he will be a serviceable option for the Browns, and he has some decent skill guys around him on offense (Gordon, Little, Richardson), and what may be the quietest/best move of the offseason is Norv Turner hired as the team's offensive coordinator (dude can't coach a lick but is great as a coordinator, just like Wade Phillips). Their defense should be improved, as they focused their free agent spending and draft on that side of the ball. Call me crazy, but I think the Browns will make the playoffs this season. 

4. Cincy - Andy Dalton & AJ Green are establishing a great connection, and I believe this duo will ride the other's coattails to Hawaii for Pro Bowl appearances. They added a few pieces in the draft on the offensive side, and while they didn't do much on the defensive side as far as signings go, they got James Harrison for cheap. Plus, they had a strong defensive unit to begin with.

Teams that I expect to underachieve by at least 2 wins compared to their total:

1. Pittsburgh - I expect more regression from the Steelers before I expect a rise in wins. Big Ben seems like a 35-year old QB with all the wear-and-tear on his body. The strength of Pittsburgh is always the defense, and they were the best in terms of yards per play last year (4.6 yards/play), but it seems like most of their playmakers are on the wrong side of 30. This one is more of a hunch than anything and goes against the recent history of the Steelers.

2. Tampa Bay - I believe the NFC South will be the NFL's toughest division in 2013, so this is the main reason why I think Tampa will finish dead last and lower than their projected 7.5 wins by at least 2 games. I don't think the QB they have now (Freeman) is the answer, and while they have a Pro Bowler behind him in Doug Martin, recent trends show that running backs don't carry teams to success.

3. Indianapolis/Washington - I figured I'd liump these two together. Never before have the teams picking from #1 & #2 in the previous year's draft gone on to both make the playoffs. While I don't expect Luck & RG3 to regress too much, I do expect regression with both of their teams. The Colts were fortunate to finish 10-6 (Luck was turnover prone, they were outscored by their opponents last year). And my big question mark with the Redskins is whether RG3 is going to be rushed back too soon from his injury. I worry that the pressure that the media and fans put on Derrick Rose to return will be ten-fold for RG3, who rejuvinated a dead fanbase last year and is expected to build upon his rookie year with even higher expectations thanks to their division title.

I expect a lot of people to love both of these team's OVER total for wins, but I'm preaching the under for both teams, especially the Colts. Luck's magic down the stretch in games masked a lot of the problems that the Colts had on defense.

4. Minnesota - Another one of those cases where I think a team played over their heads and will have a regression to the mean. I'm a huge fan of All Day, but he literally carried this team to the playoffs last year. I don't think he can do it again without the help of Christian Ponder, who didn't really show himself to be much of a downfield threat. And missing Percy Harvin will not help matters.


Quick recap of my predictions by division:

AFC	NFC
North	North
Cin 11-5	Chi 10-6
Cle 9-7	GB 9-7
Balt 7-9	Det 9-7
Pitt 6-10	Min 5-11
South	South
Hou 11-5	NO 12-4
Indy 7-9	Car 10-6
Ten 6-10	Atl 9-7
Jax 5-11	TB 4-12
East	East
NE 12-4	NYG 10-6
NYJ 7-9	Phil 9-7
Mia 7-9	Dal 9-7
Buf 5-11	Wash 6-10
West	West
Den 10-6	SF 10-6
SD 9-7	Sea 9-7
KC 7-9	StL 8-8
Oak 4-12	Ariz 4-12

Playoff teams

AFC: (1) NE 12-4; (2) Cincy 11-5; (3) Hou 11-5; (4) Den 10-6; (5) SD 9-7; (6) Cle 9-7
NFC: (1) NO 12-4; (2) SF 10-6; (3) NYG 10-6; (4) Chi 10-6; (5) Car 10-6; (6) Sea 9-7

AFC Championship Game: Cincy over Den
NFC Championship Game: NO over SF

Super Bowl: NO over Cincy

For your information, here are the totals (as of 6/10/13) for each team, according to 5dimes (I have bolded what I think will be the side that comes in). I added some comments about my thoughts for each team below:

26002 ARI regular season wins under 5½

26004 ATL regular season wins under 10

26006 BAL regular season wins under 8½ - I expect regression here as well.

26008 BUF regular season wins under 6½

26009 CAR regular season wins over 7

26011 CHI regular season wins over 8½ - Trestman does wonders in first season at helm. 26013 CIN regular season wins over 8½ 26015 CLE regular season wins over 6 26017 DAL regular season wins over 8½ - As long as Jerry Jones is owner and Romo is QB, I am feeling 9-7 records for Dallas every year. 26020 DEN regular season wins under 11½ 26021 DET regular season wins over 8 - Reggie Bush - best pick-up in NFC North

26024 GB regular season wins under 10½

26025 HOU regular season wins over 10½

26028 IND regular season wins under 8½

26030 JAX regular season wins under 5

26032 KC regular season wins under 7½

26034 MIA regular season wins under 8

26036 MIN regular season wins under 7½

26037 NE regular season wins over 11½ - new year, same Patriots

26039 NOR regular season wins over 9

26041 NYG regular season wins over 9 - back to division champs status

26043 NYJ regular season wins over 6½

26046 OAK regular season wins under 5½

26047 PHI regular season wins over 7½ - Kelly surprises amid low expectations for the Eagles this year.

26050 PIT regular season wins under 9

26051 SD regular season wins over 7½

26054 SF regular season wins under 11½ - Crabtree will be difficult loss for offense at first, especially with how Kaepernick relied on him. With tougher division/schedule, I expect 9/10 wins.

26056 SEA regular season wins under 10½ - Like Luck/RG3, I expect some regression w/ Russell Wilson. Still should contend for divison.

26057 STL regular season wins over 7½ - I liked their draft/offseason moves. Dark horse for division title, pending Bradford's development.

26060 TB regular season wins under 7½

26062 TEN regular season wins under 6½

26064 WAS regular season wins under 8

Bracket Update & Other Sport Shorts

Boy, it's been a slow sports week, hasn't it? Hard to believe that the Peyton Manning signing to Denver is not even top 3 news this week. This Saints fiasco along with Tebow being traded to the Jets, then not, then supposedly being able to "choose" the Jets over the Jaguars after all, has made for an interesting start to the week. And notice....this is all NFL news - a season that doesn't even start for another six months.

The important news first:

Bracket challenge (Brian vs. Jen - Winner Winner gets Dinner Dinner)

Once again, it looks like I picked the wrong upsets for the 18th year in a row. To date, I think the best upset I ever picked in a Round 1 was San Diego over Uconn in 2008. I tried a 14 over 3 (St. Bonnies shat all over themselves at the end, going for two 2s while down 3 with less than 6 seconds left), 12 over 5 (S Florida worked, but I hardly call that an upset), but most of them ended up failing. I only had 8 of 16 Sweet 16 teams right, with the biggest seed I picked correctly left being Xavier as a 10.

Meanwhile, the lady has a one point lead on me (37 to 36), with her edging me by 1 point in the first round and also landing just 8 of 16 Sweet 16 squads. Her championship team (Kansas) was trailing much of the game against Purdue, but they managed to squeak out a win and advance to play the lowest seed remaining in the tourney, facing the #11 seeded NC St on Friday night.

Luckily, ALL of my Final Four teams are alive (Louisville, Ohio St, Kentucky, UNC), so I have a good chance to get this dinner from the girlfriend. She lost two of her Final Four, with Murray State & Vanderbilt falling within an hour of each other this past Saturday (she has Kansas & Kentucky left). I'll have to pick something good for her to make - perhaps one of her BBQ chicken pizzas (mmmmmm). I have a great shot of winning this if I can land 2 or 3 of my Final teams and Kanas doesn't win it all. I'd love to win this bracket challenge so I don't have to eat these words. I'd rather eat a homemade pizza to be honest.


NFL News Galore!

I must say the week didn't start out the way I wanted it for the Niners. Peyton Manning decided he'd rather end his career in Mile High than go to a team that was two muffed punts away from a Super Bowl last year. I don't give a crap about Alex Smith's confidence coming from this. With this being a business, I don't have any sympathy for these guy's feelings. He had a chance to sign with other teams, but didn't, so here we are. He has a new contract with the Niners (3 years I believe, I don't feel like looking it up), which I believe gives us a chance for outs each year in case he regresses back to 2005-2010 Alex Smith. Colin Kaepernick remains the back-up. I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do sooner rather than later - I think he will start 2013 as the man behind center. He may even get an extended look at points this year if Smith shows off his old form. Remember, Smith has been benched for the likes of Troy Smith and T.J. Sullivan, among others, so it wouldn't shock me if Harbaugh took a good look at CK for a chance to start at some point in 2012.

Coming from the Manning news, Tebow was traded to the Jets (along w/ a draft pick) for a couple of picks. I don't consider this a major move for any of these teams' futures, only more of a distraction for the Jets. I follow an NFL beat writer from NY on Twitter (Bart Hubbuch), who was losing his mind with all the NFL news going on today - and only half of it had to do with his city. Many people who root for Tebow root for him irrationally. By that, it's not so much perfomance-based as it is what he represents - a supposed underdog who leads his team to victory. I won't even bring up the religion angle (ok, I just did, screw that), as that plays a big part in his cultish following, who for some reason thinks he is a capable NFL QB. I admire his work ethic and his attitude, but I give him a 1% chance of ever being a great quarterback consistently. I give Alex Smith 5%, so that tells you what I think of each of them.

The Saints' aftermath of BountyGate was done in true Roger Goddell fashion, in the form of a year-long suspension for the coach, indefinite suspension for the hitman orchestrator Gregg Williams & the loss of draft picks for the Saints the next couple years, among other things. No player suspensions have come of this year, but there will be. Current and former Saints are shocked, with Drew Brees speaking highly of Sean Payton and wanting more information as to why the punishment was so steep. Apparently, Brees has been living under a rock all these weeks since the story broke. Lord knows Brees would be asking for the league to lay similar suspensions and punishments on another team (say the Falcons) if they were found to have a bounty on him. He doesn't give a crap only because it was his team bending the rules.

Speaking of Brees, any chance this debacle makes him leave New Orleans? I'm not sure how competitive the team will be this year - I expect this to be a HUGE distraction this year. And you know referees are going to be flag-happy this year against the Saints, with any hint of late hits getting a fast yellow hanky on the ground. I know Brees is franchised right now, but it makes me highly question his length of stay in the Big Easy.

Baseball is Back (Almost)

If you haven't already looked at my 2012 Baseball Preview, I suggest you get reading it RIGHT NOW RIGHT HERE. I am looking forward to baseball returning, if only for the consistent nice weather - although this weather right now resembles it right now.

I just finished my first fantasy baseball draft, having the last pick of a 10-team draft. I drafted former teammates Ryan Braun & Prince Fielder with the first picks. Some other highlights include getting a pair of aces with my next two picks (Lincecum & Felix Hernandez) and me drafting both ends of the Mariners-Yankees trade from the offseason (Michael Pineda, Jesus Montero). If you really want my whole team analysis, I'll be glad to provide it to you. I also drafted a couple of White Sox (Brent Morel & Matt Thornton), which usually ends up happening even though I'd prefer to keep my homerism out of these drafts. I did absolutely no draft study on this, so we'll see how this year turns out.


Until next time, peace out my folks.

It Doesn't Matter What's Right...

...It's only wrong if you get caught.

I always come back to this Tool lyric (title + opening graf) when a story about someone blatantly bends or breaks the rules/laws which govern them. This story now applies to the New Orleans Saints, who went from a laughingstock of a franchise to one that became instantly loved and rooting on by the general public as it won its first ever Super Bowl a couple years back.

Now, they're heading back to the gutter after being found guilty of putting bounties on injuring players on opposing teams the past three seasons under the coordination of Gregg Williams. What makes it even more disgusting is that everyone in the organization (from the owner all the way through the coaching ranks of the team) knew about the program.

There's several questions that I'm wondering about in the aftermath of this:

1. What will the punishment be for this? The Patriots were fined $250K and Belichick was fined the maximum $500K for what happened with Spygate, which involved the illegal taping of NY Jets practices to pick up defensive signals. I think the maximum amount should apply to the Saints - that is if Commissioner Goodell wants to send a strong message amid the Player Safety Era of football. I'd throw in fines for the owner and the coaches, some suspensions (for coaches involved) & taking away a couple of first round picks the next couple years.
2. Who will be punished? I think Gregg Williams (the defensive coordinator at the time) will get most of the heat, but punishment should go to all parties involved. The punishment mentioned in the previous point would hold everyone responsible for the bounty fiasco.
3. Will fans hate the Saints now? Remember when everyone was rooting on the Saints a couple Februaries ago only years after a hurricane nearly decapitated their entire city? Now that this story is out there, I find it hard to believe people will have the same love for this team that they once did. Whether players were directly involved with it or not is a moot point - I could see people booing Brees much like they boo Brady, but probably not to the same extent.

Speaking of Brady, this "Bountygate" story has amazing parallels to the Spygate scandal that cannot be ignored. Some are coincidence, others are just fascinating:

1. Both stories started with underdog championship teams being cheered by America following a tragedy. It's hard to believe being so many years removed from it, but there was a point in time where people actually liked the Patriots, who were two touchdown underdogs against the St. Louis Rams, considered "The Greatest Show On Turf". It was the first Super Bowl played after 9-11, so it was only fitting that a team named "The Patriots" would be represented. They even started a trend of teams being announced as one as they ran through the tunnel as One. You know the rest - the start of the Patriots dynasty, with much of the public enjoying the huge upset.
   
   Likewise, the Saints were a couple years removed from the destruction of their hometown to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which forced them to play at LSU's stadium for a season. Once the stadium was ready to host games again, a new man under center (Drew Brees) gave the 'Aints their first legitimate shot at success. They lost to the Bears in the 2007 NFC Championship game but took the next step three years later en route to their first Super Bowl win.
2. Both teams were knowingly breaking the rules. If you read all the quotes from Gregg Williams, he knew what he was doing was wrong, but he didn't give a crap. He only cares now BECAUSE HE GOT CAUGHT! If they never got caught, you'd never hear a peep of an "apology" from him. Belichick knew what he was doing was wrong, got caught, and thus, paid a heavy fine for it. I expect the same for the Saints.
3. Both teams were knowingly breaking rules that many other teams break.  Again, if you read quotes about both stories from football insiders (media, players, coaches), you'll know that what the Patriots and Saints did was not just isolated to their teams. They just happened to be the ones with tangible evidence against them for the league to pursue action against them. Players are tweeting about the NFL's release of this story with a collective "This happens everywhere". Similarly, Jimmy Johnson (former Cowboys coach) has been on record saying that many coaches take film on opposing team's defensive signals, making Spygate as much (or as little) of a secret as the bounty scandal.
4. Both team's head coaches had a role in the scandal.  Belichick's role may have been more pronounced, but Payton knew about the bounty system that was in place. You can't absolve blame from him just because he wasn't the person who designed the scheme - he was an accessory to an NFL crime the likes which haven't been seen since Spygate. After the Spygate scandal, much of the general public turned their once-liking of the Patriots into complete loathing, which continues to this day.
   
   The one advantage that Payton has over Belichick is the bands of media people that love him. Belichick always comes off as a hooded robot in press conferences, trying to talk up every opponent like they are the 1985 Bears; whereas Payton seems to come of as a personable guy. Perhaps this works to his advantage and he doesn't take a huge PR hit like Belichick and the Pats did.

The jury remains out on how the general public will treat the Saints story - whether they will embrace the team under the notion that "this is something every team does" or whether a chorus of boos will meet them at opposing stadiums for years to come.

I hope that fans don't give the Saints a pass for what I consider a far bigger scandal than Spygate, considering the backdrop of the NFL the past few years has centered around player safety.

I expect Goddell to lay the hammer down - now will the public?