2/03/2012

Judging Today's Crop of QBs (not named Tom or Peyton) & chances for HOF

I decided to break down the current worthy QBs in terms of their chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm currently working on another piece which shows that there is a correlation between making/winning Super Bowls & making the Hall of Fame as a QB.

I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.

Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.

Eli Manning

The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?

Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.

Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.

I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?

Current HOF verdict: IN

Drew Brees

Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.

Current HOF verdict: IN

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.

Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.

Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN

Tony Romo

There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).

Current HOF verdict: OUT

Philip Rivers

See above critique of Romo. OUT.

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