None-and-Done: Why the NBA Needs to Let Preps Go Pro Again

The moment Kentucky won the NCAA crown, plenty of critics of the "one-and-done" voiced their displeasure with how the Wildcats recruitted a bunch of kids who were likely only going to play one year in college (thanks to the NBA's rule requiring high schoolers to wait a year to join the NBA*). I imagine that some of these people don't watch college basketball all that closely. I have a few problems with the one-and-done rule, but they're not the same as everyone elses.

*Most players will go to college for a year, but can opt to play overseas for a year - Brandon Jennings did this in 2008-09 before playing for the Milwaukee Bucks

My view is that the NBA should not be able to put any rule on someone going to college, especially when it's a kid who has clear NBA talent right out of high school (i.e. LeBron).

1. Other sports allow high school kids to get drafted. While the NFL requires players to be three years removed from high school to be draft-eligible, the MLB & NHL allow high school kids to be drafted in their amateur drafts. Each team may have its own views on drafting high schoolers (some may prefer high schoolers for their "upside" while others may prefer college kids' experience, who are a little more battle-tested after facing (and presumably dominating) peers of amateur status). Just because a team has the opportunity to draft a high schooler doesn't mean they have to.
   
   The main reason the NFL has a three-year wait is the size and speed of its athletes, who are clearly superior to their 18-19 year old counterparts and need those 3 years to develop into NFL-type bodies. While there is a learning curve for the NBA that one can gain from college experience, I don't think college is necessary for high school players who have NBA talent. Teams who draft high schoolers could also send them to the NBA Developmental League, their version of the minor league systems that hockey and baseball employ.
   
   Somewhat of an aside, but why isn't there an uproar every year about these sports above when it comes to no college/little college experience? I don't know if race is a small part of it, but it could be. Is it because we care more about college basketball as a country than college baseball and college hockey? Perhaps. If anyone has a reason for this (or a reason for your own hatred of one-and-done college basketball), please let me know.
2. The NBA has overblown the "high school kids fail" angle. Before Kevin Garnett started the wave of high school players being drafted by NBA teams, not too many players took that leap. Instead, many found 3-4 years of college to be a great preparation opportunity for the pros. Once he made the leap, other top high school players said, "Why not me?"
   
   After Garnett (1995 draft), there have been 38 players who went straight from high school to the pros (source: Wiki). Out of those 38, eight of them have made an All-Star Game (Kobe, Jermaine O'Neal, McGrady, Rashard Lewis, Amare, LeBron, Dwight Howard & Andrew Bynum). Of the remaining 30, there have been some solid players (Al Harrington, Tyson Chandler, Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Monta Ellis). Some may think others on the list are solid contributors, too. If you're just to use the list of people I mentioned, that's 15 of 38 legitimate pros that went from prep-to-pro. Not a bad ratio if you ask me.
   
   I don't want to hear the BS that GMs have made too many mistakes on high school kids. Guess what? They also make horrible draft choices on guys who actually have gone to college. Michael Olowokandi anyone?  How well did Adam Morrison's three years at Gonzaga help the Bobcats analyze his skill set? Same for Hasheem Thabeet and the Grizzlies. Fact is: drafts are inexact sciences for every sport. For every Kobe Bryant, there's two Leon Smiths. If you don't know much about Smith, I might suggest looking him up. Talk about a waste of talent.
3. The NBA's one-year wait disturbs the college experience. If you make a kid who knows he will be a professional basketball player in one year go to school against his will, do you really think he's gives a rat's ass about his scholarly experience? (Note, this is all just opinion - I have no facts to back this up - just trying to get into the mind of one of these players). Do you think that he is going to show up for all of his classes and get a 3.8 GPA, only to leave for the NBA after one year?
   
   More power to the guys who do this, but I imagine those guys are among the small percentage of those who go out of their way to care about their education for that 9 month period. Why should money be wasted on that kid's "scholarship" when everyone knows he is just there for basketball and for one year? Why don't we just cut the crap and say these kids are there just to play basketball (you know, like the NBA)? If a kid wants to miss out on a college experience, it's their loss. But it should also be their choice. If you make a kid go to school and go to class, don't you think he has a greater chance of being a distraction than the average student?
4. We live in a free society (allegedly). Let's act like it. It's quite the general statement, but we live in a country that preaches freedom of choice. This includes the right to choose to go to college or not. If you present the plusses of going to college to a stud player and he still doesn't want to go, then screw it - let him make his own choice. If his NBA career becomes a failure at that point, then it's his problem to deal with.

I don't think making kids stay in college longer (some people suggest 2 years of college should be mandatory) should be an answer. Forcing them to stay there a year longer, when most of them I(i.e. the talented preps who want to go pro ASAP) probably don't even want to be there for one year,  doesn't make sense.

One of the best alternative solutions I saw was on a post from my friend Nick, which suggested teams who draft high school players owning the rights to a player, while allowing the player to play college ball. Here's the link to it - it makes sense.

I don't know if they'll ever change the one-and-done rule in college basketball, but if they do, I hope they change it back to the none-and-done, where high schoolers have the right to explore their careers. If one of the main points of college is to figure out your career, then what would be the point of these kids (who know what they want to do) going to school for two semesters?

Kentucky's Derby

In case you hadn't noticed from the first March Madness blog I did at the start of the tournament 2.5 weeks ago, Jen picked the correct championship game - Kansas versus Kentucky. Not bad for a first time filling out a bracket. I think I've done that 2 or 3 times in my life of filling out brackets for 15-16 years at least. I've picked champions about 3-4 times in my life (not including this one). I had Kansas to win it all the past couple years, so I probably bet them to lose this year (Round of 32 vs Purdue) because of the bad taste they've left in my mouth. If Jen had been in a pool last year, she may have had avoided the Jayhawks as well.

However, her title pick (Kansas) is getting routed at the half by "my" Kentucky Wildcats, which means I'd get my choice of dinner for her to make. I was thinking BBQ chicken pizza, but maybe I'll go a different route. Does anyone have any good ideas for food I should ask the lady to cook?

Perhaps I shouldn't post this with a half to go, but I'm one of the few sports fans in the world who doesn't believe in jinxes - so here goes nothing.

But what's really sad now is that the end of college basketball closes the end of a betting season for me. NBA is still there till June, but I was just starting to hit my groove with March Madness betting for once. Most years, I tank any NBA winnings or regular season college winnings in the first weekend of the tourney - and this year was almost no exception.

My first 6 bets of the tourney (all first day bets) were toilet money, ranging from a couple of money line bets (including a long shot in UNC Asheville) to some first and second half bets. My last two bets on the initial day were winners, but that momentum didn't carry over after losing 4 of my first 5 bets of the day, digging myself into quite the hole.

I can thank Xavier for starting my great run with a win against Notre Dame - overall, Xavier netted me $660 in their three games of the tourney. Only Louisville (+$850) was better for me.

Even though entering the tourney finale my record was 23-24, I was able to sport a profit of $801 for the tourney games - thank God for Xavier + Louisville covers. Outside of their games (the ones I bet on, didn't bet on Louisville game), I was down $709 (eeeek) with a 16-24 record.

As I've typed this, Kentucky has had their lead chipped into a little bit - let's hope this doesn't get chipped into further. Go Blue (sorry Jen & Sherman).

The Rides of March - Final Four Preview

It's getting to the end of the college season, which I'm sure some of you are mourning like me, while others are just glad their boyfriends aren't going to be watching this March Madness crap anymore.

Both games feature regular season rematches from December. Kansas continued their dominance on their home court and handled Ohio State last time around, but the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger, a late scratch in the game.

While Ohio State was expected to dominate the Big Ten and compete for the title this year, Kansas was thought to be in a rebuilding process - at least for them. Many projects had Kansas finishing behind Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12.

Louisville +8.5 vs. Kentucky

Kentucky downed Louisville by 7 on New Year's Eve, but were up by double digits much of the latter part of the game. As the cliche goes, these teams are a shell of what they were. Kentucky's young guns are much more seasoned, while Louisville has developed into one of the best defenses in college basketball.

At this point in the tourney, when you're betting some of these Final Four teams throughout the tourney and riding them to profit, it becomes difficult to bet against them. For me, the team that fits this bill the best is Louisville, a squad I have backed from the Round of 32 into the Elite Eight.

Despite the bet being a squarish (very public/popular) bet, I refreshed my phone in delight as Louisville covered the spread by a bucket over New Mexico on St. Patrick's Day. Five days later, I was delighted to see the Cardinals as 5 to 5.5 point underdogs versus Michigan State, the top seed in the region with a coach (Tom Izzo) who has a reputation for great coaching in March Madness.

After Louisville's convincing win there, they had to face the Florida Gators, who many sharp bettors thought had the better chance to advance to the Final Four thanks to more scoring options. It was looking that way for the first 33-34 minutes of the game, with Florida storming out of the gate with an insane shooting display. They led much of the game, mainly in the 7-10 point range, but a late rally by Louisville led -----> this guy <------ to celebrate to a third consecutive gambling win for me on Louisville.

In all, this Cardinals run netted me $800, so you can see why I may have a soft spot for them tonight against Kentucky, who I picked to win the tourney when the brackets came out. As any gambler knows though, you have to take emotion out of the equation and you have to ignore who may or may not have won you money. With Kentucky tourney games, I went 1-1 (bet on them against Indiana, against their spread versus Baylor).

This is no way to analyze a game, but stuff I must keep in mind before making an emotional type of bet on the games. I do think this is going to be a hard-fought rivalry type of game. Their December 31st matchup featured 50+ fouls, which hopefully won't get quite that high today (for fear of the referees making themselves part of the game).

Kentucky has the superior talent, while Louisville has the better team defense. I expect this to be the Civil War that everyone is dubbing it. Rick Pitino prepares his teams well after long layoffs between games, which will be one of the reasons this game stays so close. Like their last game, I say Kentucky wins, but Louisville covers.

Kentucky 67, Louisville 61 (Betting Louisville +8.5)

Kansas +2.5 vs. Ohio State

I don't have as much of a feel on the other game. The scary thing about Kansas so far is that they haven't really played that great yet despite making the Final Four. The Jayhawks escaped with a win over Purdue and could never put away North Carolina State in the regional semifinals. They were going back and forth versus UNC before saving their best three-minute span of tourney basketball for the last three minutes and eventually running away from the Tar Heels.

Ohio State has confused some bettors this year, with people not sure what they are going to get out of the Buckeyes. Come tourney time, and the Buckeyes started taking care of business. Like Kansas, they downed a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four, thanks to a strong second half performance.

While Kansas won by 11 the last time around, I'd definitely say that the absence of Sullinger was the main reason to such a convincing victory. If I decide to bet this game, I'm leaning on taking Ohio State - just not sure how convinced I am that Kansas isn't going to show its talent a little more than they have so far in the tourney.

Ohio State 74, Kansas 70

Enjoy the games everyone.

March Fadness: You're Not Cool Unless You Fill Out a Bracket

Around this time of year, it's actually more shocking when you come across a person who hasn't filled out a March Madness bracket of some sort.

It's not just the hardcore basketball fans that enter office tourneys or engage in side bets with their friends. In fact, it seems like it's about this time when many people are watching their first glimpses of college basketball this year.

With my social group, it is no different. I set up a bracket group on Yahoo, which you are welcome to join here - http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/group/31988 . It's free to join, so no risk involved.

Many of the members in the group of 19 so far do not watch a lick of college basketball, and I'd be willing to bet that one of them is going to win this group challenge. It happens across offices everywhere - someone who fills out their alum school to go far or picks a team based on its name or mascot can be the person who collects the first place prize.

I'm getting into the spirit of things by posting my bracket versus my g/f Jen's. Like many of you, she'd rather just avoid watching basketball altogether, but I forced her to fill out a bracket for the purposes of a blog - she's such a good sport*.

*She wasn't forced to do anything - She'd beat me up if I forced her to do anything**
**She'd never beat me....I don't think.

We don't have a bet at the moment, but perhaps dinner (her making it versus me taking her out for it - my cooking skills are limited to the grill and microwave) could be made.

I'll post some of the highlights of our brackets (My picks subject to change - I will repost if I change anything below):

First round Upsets - i.e. 11 over 6 and above (I'll ignore the 7/10, 8/9 matchups)

Brian: Long Beach St., St. Bonnies, Texas, Winner of Cal/USF
Jen: Belmont, NC State

Any #1 seeds eliminated before Sweet 16?

Brian: no
Jen: no

Double digit seeds selected to Sweet 16:

Brian: 4
Jen: 1

Top 2 seeds left in Elite 8 (out of 8):

Brian: 5
Jen: 5

Final Four

Brian: Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio St, UNC
Jen: Kentucky, Murray St, Vandy, Kansas

Championship Game...(to be posted Thursday)


In the interests of people wanting to copy all of our picks because they are so awesome (and also because my picks might not be final), I will release our full brackets later (Thursday morning) and re-post them in the blog here.

We will see if watching basketball every weekend (i.e. me) matters or if you'd be better off just completely ignoring it and asking your boyfriend to change the channel when he turns it on in your company (i.e - Jen).

Enjoy the games, and let me know if you want to join the money part of our bracket. So far, there are 5 people in the $20/entry pool. If we get 7/8 or more, I'll make a 2nd and perhaps a 3rd place prize. I'd be happy to donate my $20 to you.