Fame of the Game

Much like politics with "Follow the Money", all one needs to do is to "Follow the Hall of Famers" to see what teams have a chance to win the championship.

Besides being in an NBA Finals matchup for the 2nd time in the past 6 years, what else do the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have in common? They both have at least 2 future Hall of Famers.

According to data presented by basketball-reference.com, Dwyane Wade and Lebron James (both at 99% odds) as well as Dirk Nowitzki (95%) and Jason Kidd (90%) are likely Hall of Famers based on a probability formula of who will likely be in the Hall of Fame (not who deserves to be in it). Based on this, Chris Bosh has a 53% chance of making the Hall (likely to increase if the Heat become the dynasty they expect to become).

Why mention the obvious Hall-of-Fame angle, you ask? Well, I dug up the champions that have hoisted the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy since I was born (I'm 28, do the math). And I found out some things I already knew and some that I did not.

(1) Based on current players already in the hall and the basketball-reference article, 26 of 28 teams who have won the title have had 2 Hall-of-Fame worthy players on their team, with 11 of 28 teams having at least 3 Hall of Famers. The 1993-94 Rockets (Hakeem) and 2003-04 Pistons (no hall of famers) were the exception to the rule.

(2) Based on the list I am posting below, one could argue that the only team that was led by a point guard to a title in this span was Detroit in 1989 and 1990 (by Isiah Thomas). Otherwise, most of the teams had an inside presence (center or power forward) and/or a shooting guard that were arguably the best players on their teams.

Year	Champion	Hall of Famer 1	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 2	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 3	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 4	Position	Hall of Famer 5	Position
1983	76ers	Moses Malone	Center	Julius Erving	Small Forward
1984	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard
1985	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Guard	James Worthy	Forward	Bob McAdoo	Forward
1986	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard	Bill Walton	Forward/Center
1987	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1988	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1989	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Adrian Dantley	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1990	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard
1991	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1992	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1993	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1994	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center
1995	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center	Clyde Drexler	Shooting Guard
1996	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1997	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center
1998	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1999	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	David Robinson	Center
2000	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2001	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2002	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2003	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2004	Pistons	None**
2005	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2006	Heat	Dwyane Wade	Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2007	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2008	Celtics	Kevin Garnett	Forward	Ray Allen	Guard	Paul Pierce	Guard
2009	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
2010	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
Chances	*As of 5/30/2011	Gasol has 60% of HOF,	according to basketball-reference.com
		Parker has 57% of HOF
	** Chauncey Billups -	best chances of making it - 21%

This somewhat references my last article that states that Derrick Rose needs another high caliber player next to him that can be a difference maker. The previous article never touched base on the fact that it'd likely need to be another likely perennial All-Star/potential Hall of Famer like Rose that would have to be the compliment. Outside of a trade for Howard, I don't see a potential Hall of Famer going to the Bulls this offseason (player lockout be damned).

Using this formula as a gambler, it'd be wise to look at each team and see which teams have 2 or more future Hall-of-Famers and make future bets based on this. Any teams with 1 or less Hall-worthy players should not be considered reasonable bets. Bet on the long-shots at your own risk (especially in the NBA, where only 9 different franchises have won titles in the past 30 years).

As far as the NBA Finals for 2011 is concerned, I expect this to be a highly competitive series in Heat/Mavs II. Only 4 players (Dirk, Wade, Haslem and Jason Terry) remain from the 2006 series, which doesn't seem like a lot for a rematch. That shouldn't make the series any less entertaining.

Dirk enters this Finals on a roll that no one has ever seen from him before. He and LeBron have clearly been the best players in the postseason, which explains why their respective teams advanced to the final series of the season.

Unfortunately for Bulls fans who are bitter about the series loss to the Heat and to NBA fans who just flat out hate the Heat (you can't spell H-E-A-T without HATE, after all), I believe that the Heat are taking this series. Both teams are capable of winning games on the road (each team shared NBA best road records of 28-13), and I think each team will win at least a road game in the series. I flipped between Heat in 6 and in 7, but I'll go with my original choice and say Heat in 6.

Whatever the result, you can add 2011 to the Facts of NBA Life - another team with 2+ HOFers will win the title to make it 27 of 29.

Paging Gar Forman - your move.