5/31/2011

Fame of the Game

Much like politics with "Follow the Money", all one needs to do is to "Follow the Hall of Famers" to see what teams have a chance to win the championship.


Besides being in an NBA Finals matchup for the 2nd time in the past 6 years, what else do the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have in common? They both have at least 2 future Hall of Famers.

According to data presented by basketball-reference.com, Dwyane Wade and Lebron James (both at 99% odds) as well as Dirk Nowitzki (95%) and Jason Kidd (90%) are likely Hall of Famers based on a probability formula of who will likely be in the Hall of Fame (not who deserves to be in it). Based on this, Chris Bosh has a 53% chance of making the Hall (likely to increase if the Heat become the dynasty they expect to become).

Why mention the obvious Hall-of-Fame angle, you ask? Well, I dug up the champions that have hoisted the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy since I was born (I'm 28, do the math). And I found out some things I already knew and some that I did not.

(1) Based on current players already in the hall and the basketball-reference article, 26 of 28 teams who have won the title have had 2 Hall-of-Fame worthy players on their team, with 11 of 28 teams having at least 3 Hall of Famers. The 1993-94 Rockets (Hakeem) and 2003-04 Pistons (no hall of famers) were the exception to the rule.

(2) Based on the list I am posting below, one could argue that the only team that was led by a point guard to a title in this span was Detroit in 1989 and 1990 (by Isiah Thomas). Otherwise, most of the teams had an inside presence (center or power forward) and/or a shooting guard that were arguably the best players on their teams.

Year Champion Hall of Famer 1 Primary Position Hall of Famer 2 Primary Position Hall of Famer 3 Primary Position Hall of Famer 4 Position Hall of Famer 5 Position
1983 76ers Moses Malone Center Julius Erving Small Forward
1984 Celtics Larry Bird Forward Kevin McHale Forward Robert Parrish Center Dennis Johnson Guard
1985 Lakers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Center Magic Johnson Guard James Worthy Forward Bob McAdoo Forward
1986 Celtics Larry Bird Forward Kevin McHale Forward Robert Parrish Center Dennis Johnson Guard Bill Walton Forward/Center
1987 Lakers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Center Magic Johnson Forward James Worthy Forward
1988 Lakers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Center Magic Johnson Forward James Worthy Forward
1989 Pistons Isiah Thomas Point Guard Adrian Dantley Forward Joe Dumars Shooting Guard Dennis Rodman Forward
1990 Pistons Isiah Thomas Point Guard Dennis Rodman Forward Joe Dumars Shooting Guard
1991 Bulls Michael Jordan Shooting Guard Scottie Pippen Small Forward
1992 Bulls Michael Jordan Shooting Guard Scottie Pippen Small Forward
1993 Bulls Michael Jordan Shooting Guard Scottie Pippen Small Forward
1994 Rockets Hakeem Olajuwon Center
1995 Rockets Hakeem Olajuwon Center Clyde Drexler Shooting Guard
1996 Bulls Michael Jordan Shooting Guard Scottie Pippen Small Forward Dennis Rodman Forward
1997 Bulls Michael Jordan Shooting Guard Scottie Pippen Small Forward Dennis Rodman Forward Robert Parrish Center
1998 Bulls Michael Jordan Shooting Guard Scottie Pippen Small Forward Dennis Rodman Forward
1999 Spurs Tim Duncan Forward David Robinson Center
2000 Lakers Kobe Bryant Shooting Guard Shaquille O'Neal Center
2001 Lakers Kobe Bryant Shooting Guard Shaquille O'Neal Center
2002 Lakers Kobe Bryant Shooting Guard Shaquille O'Neal Center
2003 Spurs Tim Duncan Forward Tony Parker* Guard
2004 Pistons None**
2005 Spurs Tim Duncan Forward Tony Parker* Guard
2006 Heat Dwyane Wade Guard Shaquille O'Neal Center
2007 Spurs Tim Duncan Forward Tony Parker* Guard
2008 Celtics Kevin Garnett Forward Ray Allen Guard Paul Pierce Guard
2009 Lakers Kobe Bryant Shooting Guard Pau Gasol* Forward
2010 Lakers Kobe Bryant Shooting Guard Pau Gasol* Forward
Chances *As of 5/30/2011 Gasol has 60% of HOF,  according to basketball-reference.com
Parker has 57% of HOF
** Chauncey Billups - best chances of making it - 21%


This somewhat references my last article that states that Derrick Rose needs another high caliber player next to him that can be a difference maker. The previous article never touched base on the fact that it'd likely need to be another likely perennial All-Star/potential Hall of Famer like Rose that would have to be the compliment. Outside of a trade for Howard, I don't see a potential Hall of Famer going to the Bulls this offseason (player lockout be damned).

Using this formula as a gambler, it'd be wise to look at each team and see which teams have 2 or more future Hall-of-Famers and make future bets based on this. Any teams with 1 or less Hall-worthy players should not be considered reasonable bets. Bet on the long-shots at your own risk (especially in the NBA, where only 9 different franchises have won titles in the past 30 years).

As far as the NBA Finals for 2011 is concerned, I expect this to be a highly competitive series in Heat/Mavs II. Only 4 players (Dirk, Wade, Haslem and Jason Terry) remain from the 2006 series, which doesn't seem like a lot for a rematch. That shouldn't make the series any less entertaining.

Dirk enters this Finals on a roll that no one has ever seen from him before. He and LeBron have clearly been the best players in the postseason, which explains why their respective teams advanced to the final series of the season.

Unfortunately for Bulls fans who are bitter about the series loss to the Heat and to NBA fans who just flat out hate the Heat (you can't spell H-E-A-T without HATE, after all), I believe that the Heat are taking this series. Both teams are capable of winning games on the road (each team shared NBA best road records of 28-13), and I think each team will win at least a road game in the series. I flipped between Heat in 6 and in 7, but I'll go with my original choice and say Heat in 6.

Whatever the result, you can add 2011 to the Facts of NBA Life - another team with 2+ HOFers will win the title to make it 27 of 29.

Paging Gar Forman - your move.

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