How's Your Bracket & Other March Madness Musings

How does your bracket look?

Honestly, I stopped looking at mine with the string of upsets on Thursday, particularly New Mexico (one of my Final Four). But with that loss, I decided that this March (and future Marches) would not be considered a success or failure based on my brackets. Instead, my focus will be strictly on my gambling account.

Does this look like a successful bracket to you?

I don't think this bracket is going to win me anything. Too many red lines too early in the tourney.

But you know what? As long as the bets I make are coming in, I don't care if this whole sheet is full of red lines.

I have had some bad bets (Montana was my worst bet of the year, possibly a top-5 all-time worst bet) - note that I don't always bet with my bracket (but usually do). For instance, one of my best bets ever came on Friday, betting on Florida Gulf Coast against Georgetown (the first half line of +7.5, game line of +13.5 & the best part, the money line of +800 - the biggest money line I've ever hit for a single game).

Are We the Champions?

The big bets still alive exist in the East bracket, where I have two teams still alive for my prop bet to win the tourney. Illinois did what they could to blow their huge lead, but ultimately held on to win. They face Miami on Sunday. I'm not really sure what to expect from them, but I'm hoping that they or California (preferably both) can pull off upsets in their Round of 32 matchups - Cali has Syracuse Saturday night.

A California title would net me $3750 on a $15 bet, while an Illinois championship would pay $4125. The odds of either team winning it are still remote, but it's still nice to see them stay alive. I hope one of them teases me with another win and a promotion to the Sweet 16.

Speaking of Illinois...

I've heard there's a lot of Illinois fans consumed with hatred of Bruce Weber, so much so that they seem to be enjoying the Kansas State loss more than their school's win. If you have any issues with Weber, you have issues yourself. I'm not sure what he did to get people to hate him so much. So what if he wasn't the best basketball coach? It's not like the guy murdered anyone - no reason to root so hard against a guy that led your school to its only title appearance in 2005.

If you're an Illini fan reading this and you're angry with Weber about his stint with Illinois....get over it. It's over and done with. Embrace the current and future Illinois teams. Enjoy watching these teams coached by a fantastic young coach (John Groce was a great hire) who has proven himself as a solid recruiter. Don't waste your energy on a part of our school's past that frankly wasn't all that bad.

Speaking of bad...

Did any of you attempt to watch most/all of the March Madness action? If so, I apologize. My eyes and brain hurt greatly from the poor quality of games so far this tourney. Forgive me if you disagree, but the quality of play from most teams was evident. I'm sure you can cite a plethora of reasons for this: (1) playing outside of normal game conditions, (2) lack of overall talent due to underclassmen going to the NBA, (3) pacing of games is choppy with all the TV timeouts, coaching timeouts and fouls, etc.

For me, especially this year, it's been almost impossible for me to watch games without having a reason to watch it (i.e. gambling). And for many of you, you'd probably not be watching these games if you didn't have bets on it or a bracket to follow. Gambling and brackets drive the March Madness, not the quality of play. We get so blinded by how great college basketball supposedly is by the 63 items to fill on those brackets that we don't even realize how poorly played these games are. Sloppy fouls, horrible turnovers, ridiculous shots that require viewers to consume shots. If you can enjoy these games without a bracket and without bets, then all the more power to you - I can't.

Good luck with your bets/brackets the rest of the tourney. I hope the games are higher quality than we've seen so far.

Brian's Bracket - 2013 Version

Nothing else needs to be said, aside from my two tourney bets that aren't reflected on my bracket:

169809293-1

3/21/13 12:54am

$15.00

$4,125.00

Pending

3/21/13 12:15pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball +27500 National Champion 2012/13 - Illinois

166242856-1

3/2/13 2:54am

$15.00

$3,750.00

Pending

3/2/13 12:00pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball +25000 National Champion 2012/13 - California

Good luck with your brackets. Here is my bracket of integrity (in an offshoot, I have New Mexico winning it over Indiana)

Sleeper Cell in Champaign: Making A Case for The Fighting Illini

It would be fitting for me to write a blog about a sleeper team as most people are snuggled away in their beds, having March Madness nightmares. Flying brackets are coming at them at high speeds, with large seeds being planted deep in their membranes. Should I pick that upset? Should I keep this team in my Sweet 16?

Yes, you should pick that upset - that's what March Madness is for. And yes, keep them there - you're always better off going with your gut instinct with these things.

One team you shouldn't sleep on is one that practically fell asleep mid-season, but was fairly awake for the beginning part of the year along with wet dream games against Ohio State and Indiana. In fact, they lay claim as the only team in the tourney that can say they beat three of the top eight seeds in the tourney.

Yes - Illinois fits the role of the Cinderella. Will the shoe fit?

Beating the Big Boys

It fit when they traveled to Spokane in the early part of the year when they shot lights out against Gonzaga in a hostile environment. A month later, they never trailed in a blowout of Ohio State at home. Another month after that, a spirited second half comeback helped the Illini upset then No.1 Indiana.

Sure, they've had their clunkers (see: plenty of the Big Ten schedule, especially games against Northwestern at home and at Wisconsin). Not too often an 8-10 Big Ten team is worthy of a 7 seed in the tourney, but the Illini's strength of victory has to be considered when the bracket is put together.

This blog might be useless come Friday afternoon if they lay a dud against Colorado (possible). But the way Illinois has played this season, they feel like they are just as likely to advance to the Elite Eight as they are to lose in their first game.

Yes, I believe they can beat Colorado, Miami and their third opponent (whoever it may be). Hell, if Indiana is still standing at that point, I believe Illinois could beat them as well - they already proved earlier this year that they can play with them.

Track Record

Besides, let's not forget what their new coach John Groce did with mid-major Ohio last year, leading them into the Sweet 16 and taking top-seeded North Carolina to overtime before just missing a chance at an Elite 8 appearance.

When Illinois is playing at its peak, it has proven it can beat the top teams in the country. Here's to hoping, especially as an alumnus of the Fighting Illini, that they can find some of their early season magic, which led to a 12-0 start and win a string of games that can take them into the second weekend of the tourney and beyond.

I have Illinois losing to Indiana in the Elite Eight, for what it's worth. I might take a shot before the tourney starts at Illinois' 275/1 odds to win the tourney.

When they lose in the first round against Colorado, don't say I didn't warn you (and don't say I covered my ass by including this disclaimer - talking out of both sides of our ass is what writers/prognosticators do).

If the shoe fits....we shall see.

Money where my heart is

Is it good to bet on your team? I suppose...but only if you're betting with the brain and not the heart. If you're making a casual bet with a friend, then I suppose that's alright too. But as a handicapper (emphasis on handicap), it's probably usually wise to not bet your team (for or against). Too many conflicts of interests.

On that note, I'm making my first public (i..e. blog) basketball bet today and hopefully catching the end of a rout of the Indiana Hoosiers by

I-L-L....

I-N-I

Getting ready to piss away $44 on Illinois -5 or so (gotta wait for The Book to message me to get the official line).

Let's do it.