Reheat: NBA Preview 2012

With such a short offseason compared to other major sports, it never feels like NBA is out of season.

The freshest things in mind are the ones I'll touch upon. I have friends who I'd consider bigger basketball junkies than me - I'll give you a simpleton's point of view with this past offseason.

The Dwight Stuff

It only took what seemed liked decades, but Dwight Howard finally got his wishes to leave Orlando when his old team traded him to the Lakers. Howard joins veteran Steve Nash as the big acquisitions to the Lakers, who are gearing up for at least one more Kobe title run before he hangs it up in a few years. Anyone who thought the Lakers were not the favorites to land Howard all along (rumors had him going to the Nets as they kick off their inaugural season in Brooklyn). I believe the Lakers will make it far, but I believe their championship will have to wait a year.

Agony of the Heat

Speaking of champions, America's least favorite team - ok, maybe more so Chicago area's least favorite team - is the reigning NBA champion. They added sharpshooting veteran Ray Allen to the mix - a great move in my opinion. I foresee a lot of Lebron kick-outs to a wide open Allen for three this season. With the championship taste still in their mouths, I expect the champs to repeat en route to what should be a dynasty that features at least 4-5 championships (assuming LeBron stays there and doesn't opt out in a couple years).

Thunder Struck

Just a few days ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded away James Harden to the Houston Rockets, with the key player coming to the Thunder being Kevin Martin. A lot of people are wondering why the Thunder would make such a move, but apparently Harden turned down a contract with them (wasn't a max contract). With the trade, he can make about 50% more over the life of the contract (signing a max deal w/ Houston over the deal the Thunder offered) if I've read everything right. So he goes from a championship caliber team to a rebuilding one - the classic "Should I chase money or rings?" argument. He can't convince me or anyone else that he thinks he'll even come close to sniffing a conference finals, yet alone contend for a title, in the next 3-4 years, where with OKC, he's likely guaranteed a few more title appearances if he stays. More power to him for taking the money. We all say we'd go for the ring if we were these guys, but WE aren't talented basketball players capable of being in a position to make these choices. Good luck Harden - you'll need it.

Flop It Like It's Hot

One of the biggest rule changes that took place over the offseason was the NBA instituting a fine system for players who attempt to flop on fouls in their attempt to eliminate it from the game. I forgot what journalist said it (I think it was Bomani Jones) who said this will likely create a class in the NBA of those who can afford to flop and those who can't. Players can be fined up to 30K if they are caught flopping up to five times. A guy making six figures won't chance flopping that many times. Should be interesting to see (a) how often this gets enforced and (b) who are guys who get hit with the most fines.

Predictions By Division (in predicted order) - numbers represent their predicted seed in playoffs

Eastern Conference

Atlantic: 2. Boston, 5. Philly, 7. Brooklyn, New York, Toronto

Central: 3. Indiana, 6. Chicago, 8.  Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit

Southeast: 1. Miami, 4. Atlanta, Washington, Orlando, Charlotte

Notes: Yes, probably a little shocked to see Cleveland in the playoffs. I was initially surprised to put them there, but then remembered several playoff teams from last year (New York and Orlando) who I eliminated from consideration. Kyrie should take the next step and show why Cleveland picked him number 1.

Otherwise, my picks are pretty bland. I picked all of the favorites to win their respective divisions here. The most likely division for a long-shot winner would probably be the Atlantic. The Heat should clinch the Southeast title by the end of March, if not sooner. If Rose can return and shake off the rust quick, I could see the Bulls finishing top 2 or 3 in the conference. My projection is that if he does return, the rust will take a while to shake.

Western Conference

Northwest: 2. Denver, 3. Oklahoma City, 7. Utah, Minnesota, Portland

Pacific: 1. LA Lakers, 6. LA Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento

Southwest: 4. Memphis, 5. San Antonio, 8. Dallas, Houston, New Orleans

Notes: I threw a curveball and have Denver and Memphis as division winners. I think I'm buying into Denver based on Hollinger's projection more so than my own analysis. I also think it could take some time for the Thunder to get used to playing without Harden. The Lakers should roll this division but will likely save their energy for the playoffs, so 56/57 wins should be expected as opposed to 60+.

Eastern Playoffs Round 1: Miami over Cleveland, Boston over Brooklyn, Chicago over Indiana, Atlanta over Philly

Western Playoffs Round 1: Lakers over Dallas, Denver over Utah, OKC over Clips, San Antonio over Memphis

EP Round 2: Miami over Atlanta, Boston over Chicago

WP Round 2: Lakers over Spurs, OKC over Denver

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Boston

Western Conference Finals: Lakers over OKC

Finals: Miami over LA in 6

NBA MVP: LBJ.......Sleeper: Kyrie Irving 

NBA 6th Man:  Manu Ginobili. San Antonio.....Sleeper: I don't know this category well enough to predict it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC.....Sleeper: Andre Iguodala - Denver

Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver....Sleeper: Larry Drew, Atlanta

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Most Improved Player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

Random prop questions:

1. Will anyone get flop fines up until/past the fifth flop? No
2. Will the Bobcats set an NBA record for losses in a season? No, but barely
3. Return timeline for Derrick Rose - All-Star Break (Before or After): After
4. Biggest Longshot w/ a title hope: Denver at 50/1
5. Biggest Favorite w/ little title hope: Chicago at 16/1 (No Rose, No Shot)

Bets made before season: Denver to win Northwest division +540 (50/270); Denver Over 51.5 wins (130/100)

Closing out the Bulls-eye?

In order for the Bulls to aim for their franchise's 7th title, they must get a scorer to compliment Rose.

I couldn't help but wonder after the Bulls game (that is, before I found out one of the waitresses misplaced my credit card, which I have since had to cancel): Was this the Bulls' best chance to win the title?

After Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bulls were picking up right where they left off in their regular season sweep of the Heat. However, the final four games of the series, all won by the Heat, showed a fatal flaw that will haunt the Bulls if they do not address it.

They desperately need a second scorer to compliment Derrick Rose, not only to help him out when he is having an off night, but also to open up the lane for him. Rose thrives in the paint, whether it be a spectacular dunk after blowing by a defender or drawing the fouls in the paint that make coaches go to their benches much sooner than they'd like.

So who might be some options for the Bulls to bring in next year to give Rose this chance?

Free agency

Top names with scoring capabilities: Tim Duncan, Jamal Crawford, Caron Butler, J.R. Smith, David West

Compared to 2010's free agents with the top guys resembling filet mignon, we're looking at Value Meals here. Duncan is in the twilight of his Hall of Fame career and like West, plays a position which the Bulls already have depth at.

Crawford has found his niche as a top 6th man in the league since joining the Atlanta Hawks. However, he isn't the type of guy who is going to draw people off of Rose. Crawford has only had one season in his 10 year career of shooting over 45%, so teams aren't likely to be scared to give up a defender that would be best suited for Rose.

The most intriguing of the bunch to me is J.R. Smith, who has shown flashes of brilliance in his troubled career. He is a guy who is very capable of creating a shot and ripping off 4 or 5 straight three-point bombs. No one else in this free agent class (outside of Ray Allen, who I think will stay with the Celtics and take his player option) has that ability but Smith.

However, if the Bulls' recent track record with players holds up, Smith's hot-headedness and immaturity may not be something that the Bulls want to add to their equation.

Trades

Top names with scoring capabilities: Dwight Howard (Orl)

The list begins and ends with Dwight Howard. This is what many Bulls fans want to see, and for good reason. Howard has age on his side and would immediately upgrade any team's interior (both offensively and defensively).

Howard led a less talented team to the NBA Finals a few years ago simply by being a monster and drawing the double teams necessary to give their three-point shooters the opportunity for open looks. Insert him into this version of the Bulls, and we're talking about the Bulls vs. Heat in the conference finals for years to come. Thibs, the defensive mind that he is, would drool at the sight of having a block shot/shot altering center like Howard moreso than the offensive presence he would bring.

Call it intuition, but I get this feeling that Howard is destined for the Celtics or Lakers. It's the Yankees/Red Sox theory applied to the NBA. I think the Celtics would be favorites to get him - seeing as though the Lakers keep making Bynum an untouchable commodity in trade offers to other teams.

Draft

Really? No. Not a chance at immediate impact for the Bulls, who draft 28th and 30th in this year's draft.

I hope I'm wrong about the Howard situation, as that would be the best way to solve the Bulls' problem and would give the Bulls an essential second weapon to contend with the Heat for the next 6-8 years. Free agency sure won't be the answer, so it will come down to how aggressive of a trade package that the Bulls can make to get Howard and how it stacks up to other teams' offers.

The Heat are only going to get better as Wade, James and Bosh continue to learn how to compliment each other and their future teammates, so it is necessary for the Bulls to make a big move to prevent 2010-11 from being a fluke.