Showing posts with label ray allen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ray allen. Show all posts

6/19/2013

Game 6-cess: The Greatest Non-Bulls NBA Game I've Ever Watched

So much happened in that Game 6 comeback win for the Miami Heat that I'm not even sure where to start, so I suppose I'll start from the most logical spot: the beginning...

Before getting into my analysis, for full disclosure, I had the following bets: Under 95.5 for the first half; Under 191.5 for the game; Under 184.5 for the game at 2/1 odds & Lebron scoring over 28 points

1st quarter - Father Time has been kind to the Spurs nucleus of Parker, Duncan & Ginobili, and was especially kind to the Big Fundamental in the first half. Duncan started the game as if he chugged from the fountain of youth, netting 12 of his 25 first half points in the quarter. Meanwhile, Lebron started out slow, deferring quite a bit to his teammates - Chalmers led the Heat w/ 10 points in the first quarter. Miami carried a two point lead into the second quarter.

2nd quarter - Still waiting for Lebron to take over some of the scoring load, but he was never able to get going. Boris Diaw - a man who couldn't even crack the Bobcats' starting lineup a couple years ago - was a thorn in the King's side. Meanwhile, Duncan continued to dominate as the Spurs carried a 50-44 lead into the half thanks to an 11-2 run to end the quarter.

At this point, I was starting to doubt the Miami Heat's chances. I was thinking they would need to have a Game 2/4 effort to have a chance.

3rd quarter - Lebron still being held in check, but the Heat are able to chip the lead down to 1 within the first 5:30 of the half. Then, the Spurs had a run that made just about everyone think that we were about to see Duncan get a ring where he could high-five Kobe with a hand-full of rings. A 14-2 run gave the Spurs some separation as they took a 75-65 lead heading into what most people thought would be the final NBA quarter of the 2012/13 season.

4th quarter - A quick 8-2 run less than two minutes into the final quarter gets Miami back in it, and no shock - Lebron had his hands on all three shots made (2 points, 2 assists). Before you knew it, Miami was able to grab the lead just as quickly as it took the Spurs to build it - a Ray Allen lay-up with just over six minutes left gave the Heat their first lead since the latter half of the second quarter.

But then, just as Lebron was dominating the fourth quarter to quiet all of his critics (7-for-10, 16 points in the quarter), a couple of ugly possessions involving Lebron (including what looked to be a lob that someone didn't read) threatened to end the Heat's chances of repeating as the Spurs went from three down to up five in a 90 second sequence.

Lebron somewhat made up for his errors on previous possessions by burying a three after Mike Miller grabbed LBJ's initial long-ball miss moments before. Down 2, they were fortunate that Kawhi Leonard split his free throws, setting up the drama of Ray Allen using the cold blood in his veins to nail a three to tie the game with five seconds left, which forced overtime.

In the overtime period, the teams exchanged baskets before the Heat took the lead for good with less than two minutes to go. After Ray Allen hit a pair of free throws, a Danny Green three was blocked by Chris Bosh (his second block of the overtime) to end the game.

Best Game Since the 1998 Finals

After reflecting, I still say this game holds up as the best game I've watched since Jordan ended his Bulls career and sixth title run with a Game 6 win over the Jazz.

The game had everything you'd want in an all-time game:

  • One last moment to remember Tim Duncan by. No matter what he did in the second half, his 25 first half points were more than he scored in any Finals game in the series before this. (By the way, just realized that Duncan's career started when I was a freshman in high school). A loottttttt has changed since then, but Duncan being a beast has not changed.
  • A game that had more runs than the aftermath of a chili cook-off. It was impossible to figure out when one run was about to end to give way for another to start.
  • A Joey Crawford-reffed game that had little-to-no major sightings from the controversial referee, whose appearance on a court is usually greeted with groans of game-fixing and disillusionment from some of the outlandish calls he has been known to make.
  • A Hall-of-Fame player playing like a Hall-of-Famer when it mattered. Lebron took ownership of the fourth quarter, which was nearly forgotten in a two-possession sequence that threatened the Heat's repeat chances. (The one thing I hated about Lebron was what the common complaint against him has been - complaining about calls. It wasn't the complaining that bothered me as much as his lack of effort in getting back to the defensive end. There's no excuse for that, especially in the Heat's most important game of the season - and arguably the most important game in the team's short-term history)
  • Another Hall of Famer, doing what he does best. Ray Allen's three in the corner with five seconds left tied the game at 95 to force overtime and essentially ended my chance of winning my under bet on the game. Due to the significance of the moment, I didn't care the slightest in my bet losing there. I jumped off of my living room couch, scaring one of the cats and probably Jen in the bedroom as she watched one of her reality shows.
I don't know what will happen in Game 7. I think the Heat will win, if only because this loss for the Spurs reminds me of the 2011 Texas Rangers, who had a World Series title at their fingertips, a strike away several times before the Cardinals and David Freese took the moment away from them.

The Spurs seem like too good of a team to have this game mentally affect them going into Game 7. In the back of their minds, they have to know that this is one of the (if not the) last times they will have a chance to win a title together again. I think Pop will have them ready to play, but I'm not sure that will be enough. Losing will not spoil their dynasty in my eyes (4 titles since 1999 is nothing to sneeze at).

The Hated King

I am anticipating a legendary Lebron Game 7 performance that will likely get ignored by many people who hate Lebron - which seems to be everyone in Chicago but me. I'm not sure if people are still mad at Lebron for how he handled The Decision, if it's because Lebron's Heat have eliminated the Bulls in two of the last three postseasons, if it's Bulls fans that still have a hard-on for MJ and need to compare him to Lebron and his lack of rings every chance they get, or if it's just Lebron's flopping personality (every team, even the Bulls, has someone who whines about fouls - but yeah, I get that Lebron doesn't need to do it). The last part would be the most acceptable reason in my eyes, although it still doesn't mean you can't appreciate greatness when you see it as a fan of a sport.

Whatever happens in Game 7, I find it hard to believe that it will match the overall intensity, desperation and stars maximizing their star power that Game 6 had.

4/29/2013

If You Can't Beat Him: What NBA Contenders Should Fear Regarding Lebron

When Lebron James joined the Heat in the summer of 2010, he joined a stable headlined by Dwyane Wade (who had been with the Heat for his whole career) and Chris Bosh. All of these guys came from the same NBA Draft (2003 - one of the best NBA Draft classes of all time) and all were free agents at the same time.

The Heat filled out their roster with the likes of Mike Bibby, Mike Miller and Juwon Howard, among others. In total, their playoff roster in 2010-11 featured seven players (out of 13 guys who played at least one game in the playoffs) who signed with the Heat in that offseason. They failed to win the NBA title that year, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. However, this model of "Let's Hitch Onto Lebron's Wagon" was just about to start.

Miami won the title in 2011-12 with two new free agent signings (Shane Battier & Ronnie Turiaf) and look poised to repeat while adding Ray Allen, Chris Andersen (aka Birdman) and Rashard Lewis to the roster.

Joining the King's Dynasty

There's a very interesting feature to almost of all these players who have become new to the Heat roster since Lebron signed - their willingness to play significantly less minutes than they are accustomed to in hopes of winning their first (or in some cases, their second) NBA titles.

In the 19 total seasons played by the 11 newly signed Heat in the past 3 years, a total of 14 of those seasons (over 70%) featured a player playing 15% less minutes than the player in question averaged in the previous five seasons before joining the Heat. The only season by a new Heat player where more minutes were played as a member of the Heat was Chris Bosh's first year with the team (seeing a slight bump from 36.3 minutes to 37.6). Otherwise, his other two seasons (and the other 16 combined seasons) featured a lower-than-average MPG total.

These 11 new players since Lebron joined have appeared in a total of six NBA Finals (3 titles), so many of them were willing to play less minutes in order to win their first (or second titles) championship largely on the back of Lebron.

For example, Shane Battier has prominently been a starter in the league, averaging 33.6 minutes per game in the 5 seasons before he became a member of the Heat for the 2010-11 season. In his two seasons with the Heat, he has averaged 23.1 and 24.8 minutes per game, or about an average of 30% less playing time than he was accustomed to before the Heat.

The 2012-13 additions (Allen, Andersen, Lewis) are all averaging more than a 20% decrease in minutes from their previous five seasons respectively, with Allen (from 35.7 minutes to 25.8) and Lewis (34.3 to 14.4) seeing the biggest drops in playing time.

So what do these numbers tell you below? 

Once veteran players have reached that point in their career where playing for a team that has never won or even sniffed an NBA crown, the ones who worry less about playing time (and money) will be the first ones in line to play with Lebron while he is at the peak of his game. You might see veterans doing this (playing less minutes and making less) with some other contending teams right now (the Thunder come to mind) - all for the chance to win that NBA title that has eluded them for most or all of their extended careers. Out of the 11 newbies who have joined the Heat in the past 3 years, only one of them (Ronnie Turiaf) has been in the league for a shorter time than Lebron.

To make a short story long, what many NBA teams have to worry about is talented veteran players (guys who could still log starter minutes if they wanted to) choosing to forego larger contracts and instead play with the Heat as long as Lebron is there.

As the years progress (and as long as Lebron remains with the Heat), this trend should only continue. The Heat will be a very attractive destination for these title-starved players, who likely have made their share of money and will sacrifice a little money earned and court minutes to win their first/next ring.

Averages 5 seasons before Heat/James 2010-11 % Decrease in Mins 2011-12 % Diff 2012-13 % Diff
Wade 37.89 37.14 0.02 33.2 0.12 34.7 0.08
Bosh 36.3 37.64 -0.04 35.2 0.03 33.2 0.09
Chalmers 28.6 22.55 0.21 28.5 0.00 26.9 0.06
Anthony 16.97 19.51 -0.15 21.1 -0.24 9.1 0.46
Bibby 33.58 26.45 0.21       
Miller 34.14 20.44 0.40 19.3 0.43 15.3 0.55
Jones 19.5 19.12 0.02 13.1 0.33 5.8 0.70
Haslem 31.8 26.54 0.17 24.8 0.22 18.9 0.41
Howard 21.9 10.39 0.53 6.8 0.68 7.3 0.67
Ilgauskas 27.2 15.9 0.42       
House 17.98 17.46 0.03       
Magloire 19.38 8.78 0.55
     
Battier 33.61     23.1 0.31 24.8 0.26
Turiaf 18.67     17 0.09    
Allen 35.68         25.8 0.28
Andersen 19.24         14.9 0.23
Lewis 34.25         14.4 0.58