I don't remember the majority of statuses I posted on Facebook this past year, but I distinctly remember one that was posted on Day 1 of the year. It had to do with not cursing on Facebook as much this year as a New Year's Resolution.
Funny thing was, it was my mom who posted that when I left my Facebook up after getting a slice of pizza at Nonna's. I laughed it off and commented on my status that it got hacked and proceeded to curse to contradict "my" New Year's Resolution.
Time passed, and I didn't give this status much thought. Then, my company trip came around in March. I befriended some folks from work on Facebook afterwards. While it may not have hit me right away, I realized that I needed to present myself better on these social networks - as it is a reflection of myself and who I am.
Earlier this week, I read an article I found from someone I follow on Twitter (@beyondthebets for those on Twitter), and he went into describing a speech he gave to a college class full of seniors. He was telling the kids that the concept of sending resumes to employers are becoming more obsolete. (Here's the link to the article). With all of the searching abilities on the Internet & virtual footprint that many people leave, a lot of candidates can be eliminated with a simple Google investigation.
Likewise, someone who leaves a positive impression can boost their chances of getting hired. Looking at a website that someone has created (highly recommended to these college seniors by the guy) can give employers the chance to see what kind of work this candidate is capable of producing.
With this in mind, I think one of my goals moving forward is establishing my own website. I'll need to learn how to design a site, and I'd like to have a theme to it, rather than the randomness of my blog. I could promote it on social networks and hopefully get a following of people.
Step one in this process is getting my own personal laptop - an Apple most likely. I'll get back into video editing and possibly start creating my own content for a webshow. This is something I will do at the beginning of 2012.
I may look to reach out to people on how to best do this. I know a few friends who I might ask for help - it's always good to have people you know who can help you out.
While it wasn't my intention to clean up my social networking posts, it was (and is) in my best interests to maintain them with some level of professionalism. That doesn't mean I won't post something that ruffles feathers from time to time, but it does mean I am more conscious of it.
So let this be a lesson to those of you who post pictures of yourself doing a beer bong or update your status with incoherent drabble about "This girl is a whore/slut". People are watching you, some who could decide your fate when it comes to getting a job recommendation down the line. When looking at these social networks, people often forget the word "network" in this equation.
I guess I can say "Mama Knows Best" when it came to my initial Facebook post of the year. Thanks Mom.
Social Network Alert
Last night, I posted my 1,000th tweet in my 7th month of being on Twitter, which I started on my first Vegas trip in 2011.
I'm predicting that I will have about 3-4K tweets in 2012 as I wean myself off of Facebook more and more. I think Twitter will surpass Facebook some day. News is broken on Twitter faster than any other medium. I get a lot of news that I wouldn't have ever found on Facebook, much of which is specialized in the areas of life that I like to have as much information as possible (i.e. sports gambling info).
If you decide to go over to Twitter this year, my name couldn't be any easier to remember (@BrianBolek). Most of my posts are sports-related, but I do have some outside observations from time to time that may get you to laugh.
Anywho, hope everyone has a Happy New Year. And once again, thanks for reading.
12/30/2011
Bow(e)ls (College/Pro), Bulls & Look into NFL Week 17
There are 35 bowl games in college football - meaning 70 teams get a postseason game. I don't need to tell you this is excessive, but I will anyways. Out of these 70 teams, 13 of them don't even have a winning record (12 are 6-6, UCLA is the first 6-7 team to make a bowl based on their appeal to the NCAA). Why should a team be rewarded for being average? If you count the 7-5 teams invited to bowls, that's an additional 15 teams. That means 28 of the 70 teams playing in bowls (40%) are break-even or barely above it.
If you remove these teams and have 8 wins minimum be a requirement, that'd leave us with 42 teams (21 games), which would probably be a more reasonable format.
NCAA can say all they want that these players and teams should be rewarded for a great season. It's clear it's not really about the teams and players being rewarded, but strictly about money. As long as there's 35 willing sponsors to back these bowls, they will keep this system in place.
Enjoy the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl tomorrow, featuring 6-6 Illinois vs 6-7 UCLA! I'm going to fight not stabbing myself watching teams with a combined 12-13 record - and neither featuring the coach that started the year.
Happy Bow(e)l Movement everyone!
The Pro Bowl teams were announced, and like always, there's deserving people that didn't get voted in. I laugh at everyone that gets worked up for a game they don't watch. Should Eli be in over Romo, Stafford or Newton? Probably not. Everyone knows though that all the top players end up bailing from the game anyways - some of them because of their teams making the Super Bowl. At the end of the day, I don't care who makes the Pro Bowl. Sure, I like knowing that the Niners have a lot of guys recognized as the best at their positions in the NFC, but it's not going to make me want to watch it.
As much as I want to root hardcore for the Bulls, going out to bars and hearing all of the idiots that watch them, blaming every loss/foul on the refs, it gets annoying to the point where I can't watch them in public anymore. It's not to that point yet this year, but I'm reminded of it last year during the playoff run. Every loss - referee's fault. Every foul - ref's fault. I know that this is how it goes for fans of every team. But since I'm in the Chicago market, I feel the need to mention them. There's probably people who this doesn't apply to and can watch basketball objectively - so to those people, feel free to ignore this rant (a little late to say, I know).
Perhaps some of it has to do with the announcers as well. Every Bulls fan loves Stacey King, but you'll hardly ever hear him not complain about a call against the Bulls. And when a questionable call goes in their favor, he'll say it was a good call and that the Bulls deserve it.
I understand that most analysts are homers, but his homerism is too excessive for my taste. He has good phrases that sell t-shirts, but like most announcers out there (local and national), I couldn't care less about him. This goes doubly for Hawk Harrelson.
Hmmmm, Reinsdorf connection - coincidence?
Week 17 means the end of the regular season for the NFL...but in reality, the season is juuuuuust beginning. There's still 3 spots to be decided - with Denver (AFC West), Cincy (AFC Wild Card) & the winner of Dallas/NYG (NFC East) who control their fates. Other teams need a combination of a win and other team(s) to lose in order to make it.
I have Denver losing this week and Oakland winning - giving the AFC West to Oakland. Cincy plays Baltimore at home - I say Cincy gets up for that game and pulls out the W. The other spot - I see NYG winning this one by a couple scores - I think Romo's injury will play a factor. Even if it isn't a factor and they lose, Tony Romo will be blamed for it.
An aside - Romo and Lebron could cure cancer and people would critique the technique in which they found the cure. The only reason I'd ever like to see Romo win a Super Bowl is to hear the excuses all his haters would come up with - "it was a team effort, it had nothing to do with him". If they lose a game by 3 and the dude throws for 400 yards and 3 TDs, no interceptions, somehow it'll have to do with Romo choking.
God, I hate ignorant sports fans. Look at what ESPN has created. Heap praise and God-like status on a mediocre QB who can't complete half his passes and is asked to manage a game (Tebow) and detest a guy who is often asked to throw 40-50 times a game (with a 60+% completion rate), 3/1 TD/Interception ratio.
Week 17 Picks - I'll update my record in the next blog - it's not as good as last year.
KC +3.5 (Denver never wins big - only 1 Tebow win was by more than 3), NYG -3 (see above), Chi +1 (Bears will give good effort - Minn is hurting all over), Car +7.5 (If Niners are winning in StL as expected, I see Payton to pull all the starters by the second half - watch Cam shine!)
In case I don't write tomorrow, Happy New Year to all! Hope 2012 treats all of you well.
If you remove these teams and have 8 wins minimum be a requirement, that'd leave us with 42 teams (21 games), which would probably be a more reasonable format.
NCAA can say all they want that these players and teams should be rewarded for a great season. It's clear it's not really about the teams and players being rewarded, but strictly about money. As long as there's 35 willing sponsors to back these bowls, they will keep this system in place.
Enjoy the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl tomorrow, featuring 6-6 Illinois vs 6-7 UCLA! I'm going to fight not stabbing myself watching teams with a combined 12-13 record - and neither featuring the coach that started the year.
Happy Bow(e)l Movement everyone!
The Pro Bowl teams were announced, and like always, there's deserving people that didn't get voted in. I laugh at everyone that gets worked up for a game they don't watch. Should Eli be in over Romo, Stafford or Newton? Probably not. Everyone knows though that all the top players end up bailing from the game anyways - some of them because of their teams making the Super Bowl. At the end of the day, I don't care who makes the Pro Bowl. Sure, I like knowing that the Niners have a lot of guys recognized as the best at their positions in the NFC, but it's not going to make me want to watch it.
As much as I want to root hardcore for the Bulls, going out to bars and hearing all of the idiots that watch them, blaming every loss/foul on the refs, it gets annoying to the point where I can't watch them in public anymore. It's not to that point yet this year, but I'm reminded of it last year during the playoff run. Every loss - referee's fault. Every foul - ref's fault. I know that this is how it goes for fans of every team. But since I'm in the Chicago market, I feel the need to mention them. There's probably people who this doesn't apply to and can watch basketball objectively - so to those people, feel free to ignore this rant (a little late to say, I know).
Perhaps some of it has to do with the announcers as well. Every Bulls fan loves Stacey King, but you'll hardly ever hear him not complain about a call against the Bulls. And when a questionable call goes in their favor, he'll say it was a good call and that the Bulls deserve it.
I understand that most analysts are homers, but his homerism is too excessive for my taste. He has good phrases that sell t-shirts, but like most announcers out there (local and national), I couldn't care less about him. This goes doubly for Hawk Harrelson.
Hmmmm, Reinsdorf connection - coincidence?
Week 17 means the end of the regular season for the NFL...but in reality, the season is juuuuuust beginning. There's still 3 spots to be decided - with Denver (AFC West), Cincy (AFC Wild Card) & the winner of Dallas/NYG (NFC East) who control their fates. Other teams need a combination of a win and other team(s) to lose in order to make it.
I have Denver losing this week and Oakland winning - giving the AFC West to Oakland. Cincy plays Baltimore at home - I say Cincy gets up for that game and pulls out the W. The other spot - I see NYG winning this one by a couple scores - I think Romo's injury will play a factor. Even if it isn't a factor and they lose, Tony Romo will be blamed for it.
An aside - Romo and Lebron could cure cancer and people would critique the technique in which they found the cure. The only reason I'd ever like to see Romo win a Super Bowl is to hear the excuses all his haters would come up with - "it was a team effort, it had nothing to do with him". If they lose a game by 3 and the dude throws for 400 yards and 3 TDs, no interceptions, somehow it'll have to do with Romo choking.
God, I hate ignorant sports fans. Look at what ESPN has created. Heap praise and God-like status on a mediocre QB who can't complete half his passes and is asked to manage a game (Tebow) and detest a guy who is often asked to throw 40-50 times a game (with a 60+% completion rate), 3/1 TD/Interception ratio.
Week 17 Picks - I'll update my record in the next blog - it's not as good as last year.
KC +3.5 (Denver never wins big - only 1 Tebow win was by more than 3), NYG -3 (see above), Chi +1 (Bears will give good effort - Minn is hurting all over), Car +7.5 (If Niners are winning in StL as expected, I see Payton to pull all the starters by the second half - watch Cam shine!)
In case I don't write tomorrow, Happy New Year to all! Hope 2012 treats all of you well.
12/29/2011
Stairway out of '11: The Year That Was
The year that was - it was 2011.
Some great things entered my life, some went to heaven.
Goodbye to my wonderful Grandma, a great woman to all.
Always around for us whenever we'd rise and fall.
So long to my Buddy of 15 years, man's best friend.
The old man was loyal until the very end.
For the loss I had, there was plenty of good in my life.
I had a great pair of friends who took the dive
Into a marriage that was as unique as themselves.
Definitely something to keep in my memory shelf.
My Niners are surprising, no Christmas coal.
I'm crossing my fingers for a Super Bowl.
There was the usual Vegas trip (ok, two).
At least I won (wait, I did lose).
What was unusual was activity in dating.
In the past I was left alone and debating
An online route to meet a great girl
After a two-month relationship, I entered the online dating world.
Met a pretty ginger who has been amazing.
Feeling like a kid who is star gazing.
It's nice to have another half to make things whole
Someone to compliment the heart and soul.
With these things in my life, I have much to love.
My family and friends continue to fit me like a glove.
It's fun to grow old around all these fools I know.
The theatre of life, there's always a great show.
The Mayans say that the world will end soon.
I'll take my chances that day and sleep till noon.
For 2011 exits, 2012 will begin.
And hopefully I'll be singing this happy tune all over again.
Some great things entered my life, some went to heaven.
Goodbye to my wonderful Grandma, a great woman to all.
Always around for us whenever we'd rise and fall.
So long to my Buddy of 15 years, man's best friend.
The old man was loyal until the very end.
For the loss I had, there was plenty of good in my life.
I had a great pair of friends who took the dive
Into a marriage that was as unique as themselves.
Definitely something to keep in my memory shelf.
My Niners are surprising, no Christmas coal.
I'm crossing my fingers for a Super Bowl.
There was the usual Vegas trip (ok, two).
At least I won (wait, I did lose).
What was unusual was activity in dating.
In the past I was left alone and debating
An online route to meet a great girl
After a two-month relationship, I entered the online dating world.
Met a pretty ginger who has been amazing.
Feeling like a kid who is star gazing.
It's nice to have another half to make things whole
Someone to compliment the heart and soul.
With these things in my life, I have much to love.
My family and friends continue to fit me like a glove.
It's fun to grow old around all these fools I know.
The theatre of life, there's always a great show.
The Mayans say that the world will end soon.
I'll take my chances that day and sleep till noon.
For 2011 exits, 2012 will begin.
And hopefully I'll be singing this happy tune all over again.
12/23/2011
Holiday Spirit Year-Round: Why We Should Treat the Whole Year Like a Holiday
It's that time of year where everyone gets in a festive spirit, spends time with family and eats/drinks themselves silly. They buy gifts for others, hoping that their present is received with a wide smile.
Outside of those who either don't celebrate the holidays for personal or religious reasons, people are happy.
The real question is - why can't people have this "cheer" all year?
Do we force ourselves to be happy around the holidays because that's what we are supposed to do? Or are we genuinely happy?
If we're genuinely happy, then why can't this happiness extend beyond the holidays? We should be just as happy on a random day in April as we are on Christmas Day.
Ok, maybe it's because it gives us something to look forward to every year. The cyclical traditions that many cultures have on particular days hold special meaning to the people celebrating them.
I'm not trying to be a Scrooge. On the contrary, I think people who get into the holday spirit should carry a part of that spirit with them throughout the year. It'd make this enthusiasm that many of us seem to force actually become a genuine feeling that can be one spread out across the year.
Outside of those who either don't celebrate the holidays for personal or religious reasons, people are happy.
The real question is - why can't people have this "cheer" all year?
 |
| Why can't everyone be as happy as this bifocaled kid all year? |
Do we force ourselves to be happy around the holidays because that's what we are supposed to do? Or are we genuinely happy?
If we're genuinely happy, then why can't this happiness extend beyond the holidays? We should be just as happy on a random day in April as we are on Christmas Day.
Ok, maybe it's because it gives us something to look forward to every year. The cyclical traditions that many cultures have on particular days hold special meaning to the people celebrating them.
I'm not trying to be a Scrooge. On the contrary, I think people who get into the holday spirit should carry a part of that spirit with them throughout the year. It'd make this enthusiasm that many of us seem to force actually become a genuine feeling that can be one spread out across the year.
12/22/2011
Playing: Selfishness vs. Pride
Let these blogs keep a flowin'!
Big Ben hurt his team by playing on Monday Night. If any Bears fans had any wonders on why Jay Cutler didn't play through his injury, the proof of why it was good was shown in San Francisco, where Roethlisberger hobbled his way through a 20-3 drubbing to the Niners.
I'm sure his teammates called him a warrior for coming out there to try winning for them, but what good was he serving them when he was clearly affected by the injury? Nevermind the 330 yards passing - he was responsible for 4 turnovers.
Charlie Batch proved himself in a 4 game stretch during Ben's suspension last year, going 3-1 to keep the ship afloat for the Steelers to start the 2010 season. He may not be the best QB, but he's a solid backup and would have been a better option than Big Ben with his high ankle sprain.
If Cutler continued to play in the championship game with the injury he had and played like Big Ben did, he would have been dogged by everyone for being selfish and putting himself ahead of the team. Let's face it - a lot of the hate for Cutler that day stemmed from people's perception of his personality, which is a lot of times off-putting and anti-social. Not many people know of the charitable work Cutler does for kids with diabetes.
As sick as it sounds to say, especially seeing what we've seen the past month, but Hanie was a better option for the Bears at that juncture than Cutler. Ironically, Jay was being a team player by pulling himself out - Big Ben wasn't.
Yet you would think the opposite is true.
I enjoy seeing teams try even when they have nothing to play for. While I didn't watch a single down of the Colts/Texans games, all I need to see is the final score to know that the Colts weren't about to fold in the face of getting a #1 pick. After all, the 53 guys who suited up are all making at least 6 figures, and many of them are not guaranteed jobs beyond this year.
Playing for pride does some strange things for some of these players. From a less athletic perspective, I enjoyed playing the role of spoiler with my crappy fantasy football teams in hopes of eliminating teams from money spots. Granted, I know it's not the same. Even though I had nothing to play for, I knew that the integrity of the leagues are at stake if I don't try to win every week.
The same goes for professional sports - about 90 million times more so. I know it has to sting for the Colts to see their guys pulling out wins late in the season and risking a chance at not getting the #1 pick. As a football fan, I appreciate it when guys bust their asses on a weekly basis and show pride.
I'm thinking that Minnesota and St. Louis, who are the only teams who can over-take Indy, would probably pass on a QB even if Indy got another win. Especially StL, who is handcuffed to Bradford's contract.
Kudos to Indy for making this a possibility. I'm glad that there are some millionaire athletes who give a crap.
Big Ben hurt his team by playing on Monday Night. If any Bears fans had any wonders on why Jay Cutler didn't play through his injury, the proof of why it was good was shown in San Francisco, where Roethlisberger hobbled his way through a 20-3 drubbing to the Niners.
I'm sure his teammates called him a warrior for coming out there to try winning for them, but what good was he serving them when he was clearly affected by the injury? Nevermind the 330 yards passing - he was responsible for 4 turnovers.
Charlie Batch proved himself in a 4 game stretch during Ben's suspension last year, going 3-1 to keep the ship afloat for the Steelers to start the 2010 season. He may not be the best QB, but he's a solid backup and would have been a better option than Big Ben with his high ankle sprain.
If Cutler continued to play in the championship game with the injury he had and played like Big Ben did, he would have been dogged by everyone for being selfish and putting himself ahead of the team. Let's face it - a lot of the hate for Cutler that day stemmed from people's perception of his personality, which is a lot of times off-putting and anti-social. Not many people know of the charitable work Cutler does for kids with diabetes.
As sick as it sounds to say, especially seeing what we've seen the past month, but Hanie was a better option for the Bears at that juncture than Cutler. Ironically, Jay was being a team player by pulling himself out - Big Ben wasn't.
Yet you would think the opposite is true.
I enjoy seeing teams try even when they have nothing to play for. While I didn't watch a single down of the Colts/Texans games, all I need to see is the final score to know that the Colts weren't about to fold in the face of getting a #1 pick. After all, the 53 guys who suited up are all making at least 6 figures, and many of them are not guaranteed jobs beyond this year.
Playing for pride does some strange things for some of these players. From a less athletic perspective, I enjoyed playing the role of spoiler with my crappy fantasy football teams in hopes of eliminating teams from money spots. Granted, I know it's not the same. Even though I had nothing to play for, I knew that the integrity of the leagues are at stake if I don't try to win every week.
The same goes for professional sports - about 90 million times more so. I know it has to sting for the Colts to see their guys pulling out wins late in the season and risking a chance at not getting the #1 pick. As a football fan, I appreciate it when guys bust their asses on a weekly basis and show pride.
I'm thinking that Minnesota and St. Louis, who are the only teams who can over-take Indy, would probably pass on a QB even if Indy got another win. Especially StL, who is handcuffed to Bradford's contract.
Kudos to Indy for making this a possibility. I'm glad that there are some millionaire athletes who give a crap.
No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl
In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
Believe
On this day off from work, one that I was planning on taking anyways but a mild fever of 100 would have probably made me call my boss anyways like a wuss, I feel compelled to write again.
I wish I gave myself the time to write these blogs more. I feel like I get rusty with writing when I go weeks at a time without writing.
Anyways, this blog is a seasonal topic - the topic of belief.
During this time of year, it seems to make all the difference in the world as to whether you Believe or not. When you still Believe, your innocence is maintained. When you still Believe, you KNOW the gifts that you open are from the man at the North Pole.
Believing in something or someone is what separates adults from kids at this time of year. I think I was about 11 or 12 when I questioned my Believing in these seasonal things to my parents. After all, the writing was on the chalkboard - I remember getting a chalkboard as a kid and can distinctly remember the style in which Santa wrote his message on the board. It was CLEARLY my dad's handwriting. But back then, I was too young to play the role of CSI on the chalkboard writing sample.
After the myth was revealed, it wasn't like I stopped enjoying Christmas. I have a family I love spending time with every year - both immediate and aunts/uncles/cousins. But there is a part of that Belief being wiped out that makes Christmas lose its childhood luster.
Nowadays, like most adults I know, I get way more out of giving gifts than getting them. With most people I buy for, I go based off of gut feeling on what they will like rather than a list. I think it's only fair - after all, I waited until about two days ago to write a list to my mom of what I wanted for Christmas.
I think my full renewal into Belief mode will be when I become a Papa. It seems to me that coming full-circle on the whole getting gifts as a kid to giving gifts to my kids will get the Belief spirit back into me. Having a kid who Believes will turn me back into a kid myself.
The innocence will be renewed, and the cycle of Belief will continue. When that time comes, I think these last few sentences will prove to be prophetic.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa and whatever holiday around this time I missed (oh yeah, Happy Boxing Day) to everyone I know!
I wish I gave myself the time to write these blogs more. I feel like I get rusty with writing when I go weeks at a time without writing.
Anyways, this blog is a seasonal topic - the topic of belief.
During this time of year, it seems to make all the difference in the world as to whether you Believe or not. When you still Believe, your innocence is maintained. When you still Believe, you KNOW the gifts that you open are from the man at the North Pole.
Believing in something or someone is what separates adults from kids at this time of year. I think I was about 11 or 12 when I questioned my Believing in these seasonal things to my parents. After all, the writing was on the chalkboard - I remember getting a chalkboard as a kid and can distinctly remember the style in which Santa wrote his message on the board. It was CLEARLY my dad's handwriting. But back then, I was too young to play the role of CSI on the chalkboard writing sample.
After the myth was revealed, it wasn't like I stopped enjoying Christmas. I have a family I love spending time with every year - both immediate and aunts/uncles/cousins. But there is a part of that Belief being wiped out that makes Christmas lose its childhood luster.
Nowadays, like most adults I know, I get way more out of giving gifts than getting them. With most people I buy for, I go based off of gut feeling on what they will like rather than a list. I think it's only fair - after all, I waited until about two days ago to write a list to my mom of what I wanted for Christmas.
I think my full renewal into Belief mode will be when I become a Papa. It seems to me that coming full-circle on the whole getting gifts as a kid to giving gifts to my kids will get the Belief spirit back into me. Having a kid who Believes will turn me back into a kid myself.
The innocence will be renewed, and the cycle of Belief will continue. When that time comes, I think these last few sentences will prove to be prophetic.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa and whatever holiday around this time I missed (oh yeah, Happy Boxing Day) to everyone I know!
12/09/2011
My Surprise NFL Playoff Team & Week 14 picks
At this time last year, the NFC West was being led by a pair of 5-7 teams (St. Louis and Seattle), who would end up facing each other in Week 17 as a pair of 6-9 teams dueling for the right to become the first NFL team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record.
A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.
Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.
However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.
Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.
Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.
Breakdown of Seattle schedule
Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.
Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.
Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.
Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).
Predicting the Future
Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.
The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.
In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas
AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.
Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs
Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.
Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.
Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.
Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.
Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.
Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.
Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5
Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!
A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.
Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.
However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.
Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.
Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.
Breakdown of Seattle schedule
Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.
Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.
Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.
Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).
Predicting the Future
Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.
The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.
In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas
AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.
Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs
Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.
Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.
Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.
Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.
Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.
Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.
Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5
Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!
12/07/2011
Bye to the Hiatus: Sports Talk about Santo, Marlin$, Te-Pro Bowl
I've had writer's block, haven't really sat down by my computer after work, etc., so I apologize to the 10 of you who read my blog regularly.
And by apologize, I mean I'm not really sorry and you should write for me on my writing hiatuses.
Anywho, lots of sports stuff - might write a few blogs tonight. For now, a bulleted one.
As they always say, you're always more famous when you're dead...Ron Santo in the Hall of Fame, finally.
For years, Santo and his loyal fanbase lobbied for his induction into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee, which passed him over with each vote. It took the Golden Era Committee (which reviews players from 1947-1972 that have been left out of the Hall) to vote him in. A couple of points from this and the Hall of Fame in general:
Pujols has had 3-4 years in declining stats and is going to be an average to slightly above-average player in about 4-5 years, which means 5-6 years of dead money. Also, we assume he is 31 right now. With how often Dominicans who come to the major leagues have fudged their age, what if he is 33 right now? That would mean he would be 42-43 when this deal ends. Like I said a few weeks ago, the Cards should let the Marlins sign him. The Cardinals do not need him to contend in a weak NL Central now. And with the solid foundation of ownership that they've always had, they won't need him in the near future.
Never thought I'd be saying this, but I'd be surprised if Tebow WASN'T a Pro-Bowler this year. Before you think I've swallowed a couple of crazy pills and smoked a pipe, look at the AFC and look at the talent of the QBs this year by division. And by no means am I a believer in his long-term success, merely looking at this year's QB situations in the AFC. (Note: I've named the starter to be the guy who has started the most game for his team at this point):
AFC North: Big Ben, Flacco, McCoy, Dalton: Only one who will make Pro Bowl (at least initially) will be Big Ben.
AFC South: Schaub, Painter, Hasselbeck, Gabbert: No Pro-Bowlers here. Schaub, who would have made it, is out for year.
AFC East: Brady, Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, Moore: Brady will go. Sanchez is under-rated and gets too much criticism, don't see him getting in. Fitzpatrick is a sleeper for nomination. If Moore could have started the year, he may be more considered (and Miami may be a playoff team).
AFC West: Tebow, Palmer, Rivers, Cassel: Again, no one here deserves nomination. Rivers is having a down year, Palmer is still getting his feet wet.
Will get in: Brady, Big Ben
Could get in: Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Tebow
Probably won't: Rivers, Hasselbeck, Sanchez
Won't get in: Everyone else
As you can see by a breakdown, it's not too crazy to think that the Tebow hype gets him in the Pro Bowl, even though his stats don't show it. The fans get a third of the vote, remember. Also remember that Big Ben and Brady will likely bail on the Pro Bowl (playoff status or not) and there will be replacement(s) for them.
Also remember that the Pro Bowl is a useless game that no one really cares about or watches anyways, and the arguments over who doesn't get in are as pointless as the arguments about the fringe teams who don't make the NCAA tourney.
The BCS got the final game right, but there should at least be a +1 scenario in place. Just about everyone who watches college football has something bad to say about the BCS, and most believe there should be some kind of playoff. I know some people who believe a team should win their conference (whether it have a title game or not) in order to be considered. Others don't like the idea of a rematch in the title game - I have no problem with one.
However, I do think that there should be some mini-playoff, like a +1 scenario, which I understand to be a four-team playoff, with winners of semi-final games to play in championship game. In years where there are less than two major conference teams that finish undefeated, the BCS process gets critiqued. Last year, Oregon and Auburn finished undefeated, so no problems there. This year? LSU and then a bunch of 1-loss teams.
I think Bama and OK St should play each other in a couple weeks to play for the right to play LSU in champ game. Either way, I think it'd end up being Bama/LSU for the title.
And by apologize, I mean I'm not really sorry and you should write for me on my writing hiatuses.
Anywho, lots of sports stuff - might write a few blogs tonight. For now, a bulleted one.
As they always say, you're always more famous when you're dead...Ron Santo in the Hall of Fame, finally.
 |
| Welcome to the Hall, Ron. Too bad you weren't around to answer the call. |
For years, Santo and his loyal fanbase lobbied for his induction into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee, which passed him over with each vote. It took the Golden Era Committee (which reviews players from 1947-1972 that have been left out of the Hall) to vote him in. A couple of points from this and the Hall of Fame in general:
- Good for him, but why did he get voted in a year after he died? Did it take his death to get voted in?
- The Hall of Fame shouldn't be easy to get into. It should be a selective process and reward only the game's best.
- Santo didn't get voted into the Hall by the regular voters mainly because of the influx of guys voted into the hall during his 15 year eligibility span (over half of the time he was eligible, 4+ guys got voted in by regular committee).
- The Hall voters are dumb. Only thing you need to know, no one, not even Babe Ruth or Ted Williams, has ever been voted in unanimously. Voters who leave certain guys off their ballots should have their vote taken away. Next example of this - Greg Maddux.
- How can voters not vote for someone one year, then next year change their ballot to include said player(s)? Player's stats (aside from Hack Wilson's) haven't changed after they retired, so it makes no sense to leave a guy off of a ballot if you think he is a HOF. Either you think he is HOF-worthy or he is not. It shouldn't be a year-to-year thing where as a voter, you change your mind and say, you know what, he is worthy now.
Pujols has had 3-4 years in declining stats and is going to be an average to slightly above-average player in about 4-5 years, which means 5-6 years of dead money. Also, we assume he is 31 right now. With how often Dominicans who come to the major leagues have fudged their age, what if he is 33 right now? That would mean he would be 42-43 when this deal ends. Like I said a few weeks ago, the Cards should let the Marlins sign him. The Cardinals do not need him to contend in a weak NL Central now. And with the solid foundation of ownership that they've always had, they won't need him in the near future.
 |
| Tebow a Pro-Bowler? Not as crazy of a thought as you might think. |
Never thought I'd be saying this, but I'd be surprised if Tebow WASN'T a Pro-Bowler this year. Before you think I've swallowed a couple of crazy pills and smoked a pipe, look at the AFC and look at the talent of the QBs this year by division. And by no means am I a believer in his long-term success, merely looking at this year's QB situations in the AFC. (Note: I've named the starter to be the guy who has started the most game for his team at this point):
AFC North: Big Ben, Flacco, McCoy, Dalton: Only one who will make Pro Bowl (at least initially) will be Big Ben.
AFC South: Schaub, Painter, Hasselbeck, Gabbert: No Pro-Bowlers here. Schaub, who would have made it, is out for year.
AFC East: Brady, Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, Moore: Brady will go. Sanchez is under-rated and gets too much criticism, don't see him getting in. Fitzpatrick is a sleeper for nomination. If Moore could have started the year, he may be more considered (and Miami may be a playoff team).
AFC West: Tebow, Palmer, Rivers, Cassel: Again, no one here deserves nomination. Rivers is having a down year, Palmer is still getting his feet wet.
Will get in: Brady, Big Ben
Could get in: Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Tebow
Probably won't: Rivers, Hasselbeck, Sanchez
Won't get in: Everyone else
As you can see by a breakdown, it's not too crazy to think that the Tebow hype gets him in the Pro Bowl, even though his stats don't show it. The fans get a third of the vote, remember. Also remember that Big Ben and Brady will likely bail on the Pro Bowl (playoff status or not) and there will be replacement(s) for them.
Also remember that the Pro Bowl is a useless game that no one really cares about or watches anyways, and the arguments over who doesn't get in are as pointless as the arguments about the fringe teams who don't make the NCAA tourney.
The BCS got the final game right, but there should at least be a +1 scenario in place. Just about everyone who watches college football has something bad to say about the BCS, and most believe there should be some kind of playoff. I know some people who believe a team should win their conference (whether it have a title game or not) in order to be considered. Others don't like the idea of a rematch in the title game - I have no problem with one.
However, I do think that there should be some mini-playoff, like a +1 scenario, which I understand to be a four-team playoff, with winners of semi-final games to play in championship game. In years where there are less than two major conference teams that finish undefeated, the BCS process gets critiqued. Last year, Oregon and Auburn finished undefeated, so no problems there. This year? LSU and then a bunch of 1-loss teams.
I think Bama and OK St should play each other in a couple weeks to play for the right to play LSU in champ game. Either way, I think it'd end up being Bama/LSU for the title.
11/23/2011
The Views from Vegas: Observations Finally Put to Words After Vegas VI
Another Vegas trip is in the books. Another couple hundred dollars down the drain - and I loved every minute of it.
From Jen making her first sports bets, including one on her own, to the delicious food and buffets we had, I enjoyed Vegas as I always do.
I've always had these observations and thoughts before about Vegas, but haven't put them into words until now. Here goes nothing:
(1.) Everyone at the sports book bets the favorites. I pointed this out to Jen, and even she started to notice this as well. Out of my 6 bets, 5 of them were on underdogs - funny enough, the only favorite I bet was my boys in San Fran laying 10 points, which they held on to cover. So it helped that I noticed it most in this scenario. The reason why Vegas wins so much money every year is that they set lines at such a consistent and balanced rate of favorites and underdogs covering spreads.
According to Covers.com, favorites are 77-76-7 this season against the spread. Also, home teams are 76-77-7 against the spread. Even my theory on betting against road favorites has a similar record around 50% (25-24-2). Most years, this number hovers around 50%, and since people need to win around 52-53% to break even if they bet the same each game (i.e. flat bet), Vegas wins.
I saw a lot of people rooting on the favorites, rooting every single score and first down for the favorites. A pair of guys next to me - sounded New Yorkish based on their accents - were rooting on one of their pools in which they went perfect in the first set of games for a Vegas contest in picking teams straight up. All he needed was Atlanta, Chicago, San Fran and St. Louis to come in to end the afternoon games perfect (all favorites). The first set of games featured only one team (Oakland) that was considered an underdog by Vegas standards. I'm just guessing, but with the lack of upsets there were at that point, a perfect record is probably shared by about 100 people.
Anyways, what was I getting at? Oh yeah, Vegas rules. At both setting lines and providing a good time.
(2.) Vegas is exactly like how Chappelle Show depicts "The Internet".
In case you are not familiar with this skit, here it is:
This is exactly how Vegas is allllllll the time. From left to right, up the escalators and down, you get hounded and raped by people trying to sell something. They get right in your face, trying to sell you on some show or strip club. You can't avoid them, even when you're in the hotel you're staying at and approaching the elevator.
This is probably the most annoying feature of Vegas. I understand most of Vegas is tourists and you need to find a way to sell your product - and often face-to-face is the best way to do it. I just wish I could go 5 feet without a piece of paper being thrown in my face about some club I will never go to.
(3.) People don't know how to walk. A common occurrence in Vegas goes as such. Person A is with Person B about 30 feet away from me. One of them stops, trying to figure out where they want to go next. One of them points. They stand there for another second or two. Then as we get to within a foot of them, they decide where they want to go and either cut us off or walk deathly slow in front of us.
Lord knows I have a city walk that I can't get rid of. I got yelled at a few times for walking too fast, but I had to tell her I can't help it...it's just the way I walk. But for as fast as I walk, there are some people who walk twice as slow as the national average of walkers*. These people all go to Vegas.
*National Average is about 4 miles per hour. No need to look it up.
(4.) If you ask someone if they've ever been to Vegas and they answer, "Not since I was a kid," they've never been to Vegas. For anyone who has ever been to Vegas, you know this to be the ultimate truth. When you're a teenager, the only things you can really experience in Vegas involve meals and shows of the PG-13 kind or weaker. Not only that, but you're likely with your parents or someone else in a position of authority. And what fun is that in Vegas? You need to be able to gamble a little and imbibe on some adult beverages to enjoy the true Vegas. Sure, you can get away with not gambling and not drinking while you're in Vegas, but if you're gonna do that, why not just go somewhere closer and more local?
This brings me to my next point....
(5.) When (or If) I have kids, I will NEVER bring them to Vegas. I can't stress this enough. I saw a bunch of people with their kids at the Bellagio buffet (or The Buffet as they call it)* and also walking the strip. I can't think of the many reasons it is wrong to bring kids to Vegas, but I'll attempt to.
(a) Not old enough to appreciate Vegas - See Point 4 above
(b) It's Sin City for a reason. Do you really want your kids exposed to those folks who are hawking the strip club cards and others who are so drunk they can't even spell their own names**?
(c) They take away from your fun. What adult really wants to have a PG-rated Vegas trip? If I can't gamble, go to the sports book and enjoy a few beverages, then it's not Vegas to me.
I'm sure there's more that I'm forgetting, but I think I made my point. If you bring your kids to Vegas and have fun nonetheless (and aren't BSing me because you think your spouse reads this blog)***, please tell me to disprove my point.
Any who, these are just some things I've thought of. Any frequent visitors of Vegas, please feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.
*The Ohio State University is shameful in its use of "The". Contrarily, The Buffet is being modest.
**Just guessing. I've never been this drunk, but in Vegas, people are dumb enough to get this drunk
***Awfully full of myself to think that married couples read this crap, but figured I'd insert this nonetheless.
Vegas Results:
NFL bets: 3-3 record, -$105
Roulette: 2 sessions, -$150
Horse bets: 2 horses bet, 2 losses: -$40
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving
Detroit +6, Mia/Dal Over 45, Balt/SF Under 40
From Jen making her first sports bets, including one on her own, to the delicious food and buffets we had, I enjoyed Vegas as I always do.
I've always had these observations and thoughts before about Vegas, but haven't put them into words until now. Here goes nothing:
(1.) Everyone at the sports book bets the favorites. I pointed this out to Jen, and even she started to notice this as well. Out of my 6 bets, 5 of them were on underdogs - funny enough, the only favorite I bet was my boys in San Fran laying 10 points, which they held on to cover. So it helped that I noticed it most in this scenario. The reason why Vegas wins so much money every year is that they set lines at such a consistent and balanced rate of favorites and underdogs covering spreads.
 |
| One of my 6 bets (and my largest winner), a bet that was unpopular with Public folks that like to bet on the favorites. |
According to Covers.com, favorites are 77-76-7 this season against the spread. Also, home teams are 76-77-7 against the spread. Even my theory on betting against road favorites has a similar record around 50% (25-24-2). Most years, this number hovers around 50%, and since people need to win around 52-53% to break even if they bet the same each game (i.e. flat bet), Vegas wins.
I saw a lot of people rooting on the favorites, rooting every single score and first down for the favorites. A pair of guys next to me - sounded New Yorkish based on their accents - were rooting on one of their pools in which they went perfect in the first set of games for a Vegas contest in picking teams straight up. All he needed was Atlanta, Chicago, San Fran and St. Louis to come in to end the afternoon games perfect (all favorites). The first set of games featured only one team (Oakland) that was considered an underdog by Vegas standards. I'm just guessing, but with the lack of upsets there were at that point, a perfect record is probably shared by about 100 people.
Anyways, what was I getting at? Oh yeah, Vegas rules. At both setting lines and providing a good time.
(2.) Vegas is exactly like how Chappelle Show depicts "The Internet".
In case you are not familiar with this skit, here it is:
This is exactly how Vegas is allllllll the time. From left to right, up the escalators and down, you get hounded and raped by people trying to sell something. They get right in your face, trying to sell you on some show or strip club. You can't avoid them, even when you're in the hotel you're staying at and approaching the elevator.
This is probably the most annoying feature of Vegas. I understand most of Vegas is tourists and you need to find a way to sell your product - and often face-to-face is the best way to do it. I just wish I could go 5 feet without a piece of paper being thrown in my face about some club I will never go to.
(3.) People don't know how to walk. A common occurrence in Vegas goes as such. Person A is with Person B about 30 feet away from me. One of them stops, trying to figure out where they want to go next. One of them points. They stand there for another second or two. Then as we get to within a foot of them, they decide where they want to go and either cut us off or walk deathly slow in front of us.
Lord knows I have a city walk that I can't get rid of. I got yelled at a few times for walking too fast, but I had to tell her I can't help it...it's just the way I walk. But for as fast as I walk, there are some people who walk twice as slow as the national average of walkers*. These people all go to Vegas.
*National Average is about 4 miles per hour. No need to look it up.
(4.) If you ask someone if they've ever been to Vegas and they answer, "Not since I was a kid," they've never been to Vegas. For anyone who has ever been to Vegas, you know this to be the ultimate truth. When you're a teenager, the only things you can really experience in Vegas involve meals and shows of the PG-13 kind or weaker. Not only that, but you're likely with your parents or someone else in a position of authority. And what fun is that in Vegas? You need to be able to gamble a little and imbibe on some adult beverages to enjoy the true Vegas. Sure, you can get away with not gambling and not drinking while you're in Vegas, but if you're gonna do that, why not just go somewhere closer and more local?
This brings me to my next point....
(5.) When (or If) I have kids, I will NEVER bring them to Vegas. I can't stress this enough. I saw a bunch of people with their kids at the Bellagio buffet (or The Buffet as they call it)* and also walking the strip. I can't think of the many reasons it is wrong to bring kids to Vegas, but I'll attempt to.
(a) Not old enough to appreciate Vegas - See Point 4 above
(b) It's Sin City for a reason. Do you really want your kids exposed to those folks who are hawking the strip club cards and others who are so drunk they can't even spell their own names**?
(c) They take away from your fun. What adult really wants to have a PG-rated Vegas trip? If I can't gamble, go to the sports book and enjoy a few beverages, then it's not Vegas to me.
I'm sure there's more that I'm forgetting, but I think I made my point. If you bring your kids to Vegas and have fun nonetheless (and aren't BSing me because you think your spouse reads this blog)***, please tell me to disprove my point.
Any who, these are just some things I've thought of. Any frequent visitors of Vegas, please feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.
*The Ohio State University is shameful in its use of "The". Contrarily, The Buffet is being modest.
**Just guessing. I've never been this drunk, but in Vegas, people are dumb enough to get this drunk
***Awfully full of myself to think that married couples read this crap, but figured I'd insert this nonetheless.
Vegas Results:
NFL bets: 3-3 record, -$105
Roulette: 2 sessions, -$150
Horse bets: 2 horses bet, 2 losses: -$40
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving
Detroit +6, Mia/Dal Over 45, Balt/SF Under 40
11/18/2011
Thanks-Filled: What This Guy is Thankful For
With less than a week till Thanksgiving, we all have something to be thankful for. More importantly, we all have someone or many someones to be thankful for.
Some things to be thankful for:
Life - Hey, I'm still living and breathing as I type this, so I have to be thankful for that. Without it, I don't know you, and you don't know me. Maybe you don't want to know me - but tough.
Family - Granted, it's a collection of someones. But I think that lumping the family together is appropriate given what they do for me as a collective unit. I love my family - which yes, includes pets - and they love me back. There's no questioning this. I couldn't live without them. This includes immediate and otherwise.
Friends - I could probably leave this category out, since many of my friends have turned into family and are actually embraced as family by my own family. I feel like I'm in several families myself with the friends that I have gotten to know over the years. On one hand, you get a family based on birth, which is your real family. Once you grow older, this is when you pick your extended family (your friends). In both cases, my extended family and my real family are big parts of me and define who I am. I've always believed that the friends you have are a true reflection of who you are as a person. I have great friends, and I am a greater man because of it.
Employment - In this day and age, it can't be understated how good it is to have a steady job that pays the bills. I work with a great company with a great boss who has my back and appreciates the work that I do. In March, I will be going to Costa Rica on a company trip with these folks. I'm really happy to be with this company and the people who are in it.
Sports - Everyone who knows me and reads this blog knows of my passion for sports. Ever since I was the age of 5 or 6, I've been a sports nut. I'd wake up early even in grade school and watch the 30 minute Sportscenter on repeat 4-5 times over before going to school. I've memorized & internalized an unhealthy amount of sports facts and trivia. However, as I have become an adult, I realize the true role that sports have in my life. They are a distraction, they provide us entertainment and pointless arguments. At the end of the day when the game is over, we still have our lives to live. We still have all of the above things I've mentioned to appreciate. So my fellow sports fans: never lose perspective on what sports provide to us and how they should be in our lives.
(Digression alert: I usually try avoiding arguments with people and sports though - when our teams lose, many people think they are smarter than the coaches and general managers and think we can hire better coaches and design better plays and strategies, when in fact we don't know a tenth of what these guys know)
There's probably plenty more to be thankful for, but most of it in my life can be traced to the above items.
Like my reflection on Veterans last week, make sure that today and beyond, you appeciate and be thankful for everything good that is around you. Our time in this world is limited, so don't spend it being angry or upset.
Some things to be thankful for:
Life - Hey, I'm still living and breathing as I type this, so I have to be thankful for that. Without it, I don't know you, and you don't know me. Maybe you don't want to know me - but tough.
Family - Granted, it's a collection of someones. But I think that lumping the family together is appropriate given what they do for me as a collective unit. I love my family - which yes, includes pets - and they love me back. There's no questioning this. I couldn't live without them. This includes immediate and otherwise.
Friends - I could probably leave this category out, since many of my friends have turned into family and are actually embraced as family by my own family. I feel like I'm in several families myself with the friends that I have gotten to know over the years. On one hand, you get a family based on birth, which is your real family. Once you grow older, this is when you pick your extended family (your friends). In both cases, my extended family and my real family are big parts of me and define who I am. I've always believed that the friends you have are a true reflection of who you are as a person. I have great friends, and I am a greater man because of it.
Employment - In this day and age, it can't be understated how good it is to have a steady job that pays the bills. I work with a great company with a great boss who has my back and appreciates the work that I do. In March, I will be going to Costa Rica on a company trip with these folks. I'm really happy to be with this company and the people who are in it.
Sports - Everyone who knows me and reads this blog knows of my passion for sports. Ever since I was the age of 5 or 6, I've been a sports nut. I'd wake up early even in grade school and watch the 30 minute Sportscenter on repeat 4-5 times over before going to school. I've memorized & internalized an unhealthy amount of sports facts and trivia. However, as I have become an adult, I realize the true role that sports have in my life. They are a distraction, they provide us entertainment and pointless arguments. At the end of the day when the game is over, we still have our lives to live. We still have all of the above things I've mentioned to appreciate. So my fellow sports fans: never lose perspective on what sports provide to us and how they should be in our lives.
(Digression alert: I usually try avoiding arguments with people and sports though - when our teams lose, many people think they are smarter than the coaches and general managers and think we can hire better coaches and design better plays and strategies, when in fact we don't know a tenth of what these guys know)
There's probably plenty more to be thankful for, but most of it in my life can be traced to the above items.
Like my reflection on Veterans last week, make sure that today and beyond, you appeciate and be thankful for everything good that is around you. Our time in this world is limited, so don't spend it being angry or upset.
11/17/2011
LV Part VI: Scratching the Vegas Itch Again
About every five or six months in the past 3-4 years, there's this mosquito that keeps biting the living hell out of me.
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
 |
| Sin City Revisited in T-minus-68 hours |
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
| Week 10 | Week 11 |
| NFL 3-5, -$21 | NCAA 1-4-1, -$200 |
| Totals 2-1, $204 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-1, -$50 |
| Spreads 1-4, -$225 | Spreads 1-3-1, -$150 |
| YTD: 38-32-3, $514.70 | YTD: 19-30-1, -$468 |
| Totals: 13-10-1, $416.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-6, -$310 |
| Spreads: 21-20-2, -$104 | Spreads: 16-16-1, $97 |
11/16/2011
Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term
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| Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term |
Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.
However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.
Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.
Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.
It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.
Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.
Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.
For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.
A-Rod's Stats:
Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.
It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.
That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.
To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.
11/11/2011
Veteran's Day: Remembering Grandpa Raynor & Others Around Me
Ask everyone on my mom's side of the family, and you'll get a lot of the same answers when asked on how to best describe my Grandpa Raynor.
From my memories of him, he was very much to himself, very serious man whose idea of a joke was asking you which hair you got cut when you mentioned that you just got a haircut or telling you that denial was a river.
He often had things go against him, particularly around vacation time. One time, fishing poles in the car were mistaken as guns, as his car got surrounded by law enforcement as we were about to depart for our annual trip to Michigan. Another trip, "The Lugnut" story is remembered by everyone in the family, where a loose lugnut caused hell for Gramps not only in lack of space in the van, but harrassment over the CB radio when random family members would shout "Lugnut" into the device.
However, the one memory I have that sticks with me dates back about 15 or so years ago on this date. Three simple words that I said to my grandpa that forever changed how I think of him.
"Happy Veteran's Day".
Simple words, yes. But very powerful. My grandpa was in the Forgotten War in Korea in the 1950s. It is forgotten in the history books when compared to the wars that surround it. America's consciousness focuses on WWII and Vietnam as the Wars, not so much Korea.
I remember seeing my grandpa smile when I said this as a teenager. He hardly ever smiled.
Which is why I ask this of my readers: Instead of saying a blanket Facebook statement thanking veterans for what they did, do whatever you can to contact them (either on the phone or in person) and thank them in a more personal manner.
People these days don't get enough personal contact with messages like this, so do what you can to contact these people and thank them for their service to our country and not in some distant Facebook status.
Who knows, you may have a Grandpa Raynor moment yourself and make a Veteran smile.
To my Grandpa, Uncle Bob, cousin Tony and all my friends who served, thank you. Whether we agree with the wars that we are in or not, it is our duty to support these folks who fight for America.
From my memories of him, he was very much to himself, very serious man whose idea of a joke was asking you which hair you got cut when you mentioned that you just got a haircut or telling you that denial was a river.
He often had things go against him, particularly around vacation time. One time, fishing poles in the car were mistaken as guns, as his car got surrounded by law enforcement as we were about to depart for our annual trip to Michigan. Another trip, "The Lugnut" story is remembered by everyone in the family, where a loose lugnut caused hell for Gramps not only in lack of space in the van, but harrassment over the CB radio when random family members would shout "Lugnut" into the device.
However, the one memory I have that sticks with me dates back about 15 or so years ago on this date. Three simple words that I said to my grandpa that forever changed how I think of him.
"Happy Veteran's Day".
Simple words, yes. But very powerful. My grandpa was in the Forgotten War in Korea in the 1950s. It is forgotten in the history books when compared to the wars that surround it. America's consciousness focuses on WWII and Vietnam as the Wars, not so much Korea.
I remember seeing my grandpa smile when I said this as a teenager. He hardly ever smiled.
Which is why I ask this of my readers: Instead of saying a blanket Facebook statement thanking veterans for what they did, do whatever you can to contact them (either on the phone or in person) and thank them in a more personal manner.
People these days don't get enough personal contact with messages like this, so do what you can to contact these people and thank them for their service to our country and not in some distant Facebook status.
Who knows, you may have a Grandpa Raynor moment yourself and make a Veteran smile.
To my Grandpa, Uncle Bob, cousin Tony and all my friends who served, thank you. Whether we agree with the wars that we are in or not, it is our duty to support these folks who fight for America.
The Niner Points in Life
Ahhhh, it's been a while, but for the first time in close to a decade, I know what it feels like to be a fan of a good football team.
The last time I was in this position, I had yet to reach legal drinking age (emphasis on legal).
The last time I was here, Terrell Owens was still on his first team (not attempting to join his 6th or 7th team) and was dominating his position like no other.
Since we last experienced playoff football, we have had the likes of Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Chris Weinke, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith leading our teams to mediocre seasons at best, and outright unwatchable seasons at their very worst.
Joe Montana and Steve Young took more talented dumps than these guys.
Playing Har-baugh
So with no radical changes to the 2010 team, why is this team sitting at 7-1 and already 5 games up in its division?
Look no further than the new coach for the dramatic change.
Harbaugh is doing things with the Niners that would make Criss Angel blush. He's turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback. Smith is still not a guy I'd bank on long-term (or even to lead us to championship game/Super Bowl appearances), but for this season, he has cut down on his mistakes and has actually led the Niners to several 4th quarter comebacks - all on the road (Bengals, Eagles, Lions - all talented/playoff-caliber teams).
In fact, the Niners are a fantastic 4-0 away from San Francisco, and we have yet to play any of our weak division on the road yet. With the disparity in the division based on the Niners record and the rest of the division, you'd say that we should win all of those games (5 division games left), but realistically, I expect 3-2 or 4-1 record, as upsets are not that uncommon.
Down The Road: New Expectations
Having said this, I feel like the Niners have over a 50/50 shot at getting a first-round bye this year. A 12-4 record wouldn't shock me with the remaining schedule, and I think the Giants and Saints/Falcons will end up with 11-5 records at best. This week's game against NYG will go a long way in determining their seeding.
I don't think they'll win more than a game in the playoffs, but the fact that we are talking about the playoffs is an amazing leap that I did not expect. I hope I'm wrong about this and we're talking about San Fran still playing in February - but for now, I'll enjoy this current run they're on and hope it continues into the winter months.
The fact that I am discussing going to San Fran some weekend in January with the g/f makes me happy for several reasons: (1) that I have a g/f I can make tentative plans with two months in advance and (2) the Niners being a playoff quality team.
I remain reserved about the Niners' chances, but for how way off I was about them entering this year, I can't really complain with what happens from here.
The last time I was in this position, I had yet to reach legal drinking age (emphasis on legal).
The last time I was here, Terrell Owens was still on his first team (not attempting to join his 6th or 7th team) and was dominating his position like no other.
Since we last experienced playoff football, we have had the likes of Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Chris Weinke, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith leading our teams to mediocre seasons at best, and outright unwatchable seasons at their very worst.
Joe Montana and Steve Young took more talented dumps than these guys.
Playing Har-baugh
So with no radical changes to the 2010 team, why is this team sitting at 7-1 and already 5 games up in its division?
Look no further than the new coach for the dramatic change.
Harbaugh is doing things with the Niners that would make Criss Angel blush. He's turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback. Smith is still not a guy I'd bank on long-term (or even to lead us to championship game/Super Bowl appearances), but for this season, he has cut down on his mistakes and has actually led the Niners to several 4th quarter comebacks - all on the road (Bengals, Eagles, Lions - all talented/playoff-caliber teams).
In fact, the Niners are a fantastic 4-0 away from San Francisco, and we have yet to play any of our weak division on the road yet. With the disparity in the division based on the Niners record and the rest of the division, you'd say that we should win all of those games (5 division games left), but realistically, I expect 3-2 or 4-1 record, as upsets are not that uncommon.
Down The Road: New Expectations
Having said this, I feel like the Niners have over a 50/50 shot at getting a first-round bye this year. A 12-4 record wouldn't shock me with the remaining schedule, and I think the Giants and Saints/Falcons will end up with 11-5 records at best. This week's game against NYG will go a long way in determining their seeding.
I don't think they'll win more than a game in the playoffs, but the fact that we are talking about the playoffs is an amazing leap that I did not expect. I hope I'm wrong about this and we're talking about San Fran still playing in February - but for now, I'll enjoy this current run they're on and hope it continues into the winter months.
The fact that I am discussing going to San Fran some weekend in January with the g/f makes me happy for several reasons: (1) that I have a g/f I can make tentative plans with two months in advance and (2) the Niners being a playoff quality team.
I remain reserved about the Niners' chances, but for how way off I was about them entering this year, I can't really complain with what happens from here.
11/10/2011
Thank God It's Thursday: Return of Mid-Week NFL & Predictions for NFL/NCAA
Welcome back Thursday Night Football. Those of us who have been following the Penn St. scandal greatly appreciate your presence, if only for a three-hour period.
Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.
The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.
Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.
Penn St Update
I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.
I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.
I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.
Fools Gold, Week 10
Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).
Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.
Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5
Week 10 action
San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.
NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.
NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.
Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.
NCAA picks
Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.
Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game
Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan
Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.
The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.
Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.
Penn St Update
I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.
I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.
I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.
Fools Gold, Week 10
Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).
Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.
Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5
Week 10 action
San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.
NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.
NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.
Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.
NCAA picks
Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.
Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game
Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan
| Week 9 | Week 10 |
| NFL 4-2, $97.50 | NCAA 3-7, -$104 |
| Totals 1-1, -$7.50 | Totals 1-4, -$95 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 3-1, $105 | Spreads 2-3, -$9 |
| YTD: 35-27-3, $535.70 | YTD: 18-26-1, -$268 |
| Totals: 11-9-1, $212.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-5, -$260 |
| Spreads: 20-16-2, $121 | Spreads: 15-13, $247 |
11/09/2011
From Penn State to the State Pen: Thoughts on the PSU Scandal
Many things in life have a gray area when it comes to ethical and moral standards.
For instance, do you steal a loaf of bread for your starving family if you have no means of paying for it?
Do you pull the plug on someone who is terminally ill and has no quality of life?
Things like these, among many others, can provide reasonable arguments on both side of the issue.
However, child molestation is not one of them. Being an accessory to it (seeing something and not reporting it) is just as bad as the act itself, perhaps even worse if the person who commits the act keeps on doing it to other youth as a result of the original acts not being reported.
This whole Penn State mess can (and probably will) have tons of books that cover this issue in a more in-depth manner. What I've just finished reading is a very disturbing account of the 8 victims of Jerry Sandusky's that were spoken of at the grand jury of the case in late 2010. Feel free to read it, but be warned that this report has graphic descriptions of acts that were committed: Sandusky case
There are several individuals mentioned in the testimony that directly observed the actions of the former Penn State defensive coordinator, including a graduate assistant for the football team. According to the grand jury report, the GA told Joe Paterno at his home about the incident and then later told some other higher-ups (to which those gentlemen have been charged with perjury for lying under oath about never having heard this information presented to them). However, one call was never placed - to the authorities.
Whether the authorities would take the allegations seriously (because of the power that Penn St. football has in the community) is a moot point. An effort has to be made by someone witnessing a crime of such horrible magnitude, especially one involving a helpless victim such as a child.
What's Happened Since the Scandal Broke
Many believe that the president of the university (mentioned in the report) will be resigning or fired from his post shortly. He has had only one comment on record since the news broke 3-4 days ago, and shockingly, it was a comment that put his unwavering support for the two gentlemen who committed perjury as they were doing all they could to save the face of Penn State football.
The grad assistant who saw the actions of one of the rapes is getting a lot of heat for not reporting what he saw to authorities, which I outlined above. While he reported the issue to the people above him, he failed to contact authorities. For this, I find his reaction (or inaction) to be despicable.
Joe Paterno has gone on record today saying that he will retire at the end of the year. He brashly stated that the Board of Trustees shouldn't waste their time on his status, seeing as though they had more important issues to deal with. His fate for Saturday and beyond is to be determined, but at the very least (assuming he doesn't pull a Favre), we will not see Paterno coach another college game after their presumed bowl game.
Joe's Role and What Should Be Done
There's no denying Joe Paterno's presence when you enter the Penn State vicinity. He has contributed nearly five decades of coaching to the program, providing tremendous amounts of time and money to the school. He's so revered, there was a statue built of him. From all accounts, outside of this incident, it appears that Joe Pa was the right face to represent the school.
However, you cannot ignore this incident and cannot ignore Joe Pa's inaction to the incidents at hand. To report this matter to your higher ups and no one else, especially when you're the face of the college (maybe even of the state), sets a bad precedent for the entire school.
No one at PSU is bigger than Paterno. He IS Penn State football. Hell, he IS Penn State to many people.
This is why he should never coach a single down of football at the school ever again. He is a symbol of what went wrong with this state institution. To let him coach Saturday and the remaining regular season and postseason games would be a slap in the face to the victims, particularly Saturday's home game against Nebraska. He'd likely have 100K strong on his side as his seniors play their last game at Beaver Stadium.
But what about the football players? Getting rid of the coach wouldn't be fair to them...Guess what? Their coach did something immoral. I feel bad for the players, who won't get to enjoy their Senior Day like many others across the nation get to. But when a clear violation of ethics is committed, you can't reward the violator by letting him dictate the terms of his dismissal - players or not. There's plenty of incidents in college sports where a current regime of players (currently USC) pays for the mistakes of previous coaches/players' mistakes. I don't think they should punish the current players by cancelling their games, but the person leading them in those games should NOT be Coach Paterno.
Some Final Thoughts
This whole story disgusts me, and it should disgust you too. I'm disgusted by not only the actions of Sandusky and those around him that failed to report the incidents in a timely matter, but also the people who can completely ignore the incident and sweep it under the rug because of how they've turned Paterno into a God at the college. Reactions by people who fully support Penn State, its coaches and staff after this incident are either people who have no kids (and thus, could not understand what it would be like to think of their kid being raped) or are completely blinded by someone they built to be a dictator of morality and everything else at Penn State.
I don't see how there could be gray area on this subject. While I do not have any children, I think of my younger cousins and young people around me and couldn't imagine how angry I would be if they were raped or molested. I think of how I might be as a father and how I might be in prison right now if someone did this to my kid.
I hear former players and some coaches spewing a bunch of crap on the matter and they all seem to support Joe Pa to the point where they think he should finish the season out. This is the typical response from athletes in controversial matters involving one of their own. If their kids had been the ones to be molested and Paterno failed to report it, you better believe they would be up in arms about him being able to finish out his coaching career in 2011.
Many alumni and fans of the team are unsure what to make of this. I have a few PSU fans - both regular readers of the blog - and they both expressed disgust over the matter. One of them just went to Beaver Stadium on Halloween weekend to watch PSU's 3-point win over Illinois, and he seems to still be processing the information and where he should go from here with his fandom. I can't blame him for this and wonder myself how I would react if this happened to my school (Illinois) or perhaps with one of the professional teams that I consider myself a fan of.
I'll leave you with one final thought: If you're wondering how you should react to this story (as if there should be a way other than complete disgust), just think - how would you feel if this was your nephew or niece, son or daughter?
For instance, do you steal a loaf of bread for your starving family if you have no means of paying for it?
Do you pull the plug on someone who is terminally ill and has no quality of life?
Things like these, among many others, can provide reasonable arguments on both side of the issue.
However, child molestation is not one of them. Being an accessory to it (seeing something and not reporting it) is just as bad as the act itself, perhaps even worse if the person who commits the act keeps on doing it to other youth as a result of the original acts not being reported.
This whole Penn State mess can (and probably will) have tons of books that cover this issue in a more in-depth manner. What I've just finished reading is a very disturbing account of the 8 victims of Jerry Sandusky's that were spoken of at the grand jury of the case in late 2010. Feel free to read it, but be warned that this report has graphic descriptions of acts that were committed: Sandusky case
There are several individuals mentioned in the testimony that directly observed the actions of the former Penn State defensive coordinator, including a graduate assistant for the football team. According to the grand jury report, the GA told Joe Paterno at his home about the incident and then later told some other higher-ups (to which those gentlemen have been charged with perjury for lying under oath about never having heard this information presented to them). However, one call was never placed - to the authorities.
Whether the authorities would take the allegations seriously (because of the power that Penn St. football has in the community) is a moot point. An effort has to be made by someone witnessing a crime of such horrible magnitude, especially one involving a helpless victim such as a child.
What's Happened Since the Scandal Broke
Many believe that the president of the university (mentioned in the report) will be resigning or fired from his post shortly. He has had only one comment on record since the news broke 3-4 days ago, and shockingly, it was a comment that put his unwavering support for the two gentlemen who committed perjury as they were doing all they could to save the face of Penn State football.
The grad assistant who saw the actions of one of the rapes is getting a lot of heat for not reporting what he saw to authorities, which I outlined above. While he reported the issue to the people above him, he failed to contact authorities. For this, I find his reaction (or inaction) to be despicable.
Joe Paterno has gone on record today saying that he will retire at the end of the year. He brashly stated that the Board of Trustees shouldn't waste their time on his status, seeing as though they had more important issues to deal with. His fate for Saturday and beyond is to be determined, but at the very least (assuming he doesn't pull a Favre), we will not see Paterno coach another college game after their presumed bowl game.
Joe's Role and What Should Be Done
There's no denying Joe Paterno's presence when you enter the Penn State vicinity. He has contributed nearly five decades of coaching to the program, providing tremendous amounts of time and money to the school. He's so revered, there was a statue built of him. From all accounts, outside of this incident, it appears that Joe Pa was the right face to represent the school.
However, you cannot ignore this incident and cannot ignore Joe Pa's inaction to the incidents at hand. To report this matter to your higher ups and no one else, especially when you're the face of the college (maybe even of the state), sets a bad precedent for the entire school.
No one at PSU is bigger than Paterno. He IS Penn State football. Hell, he IS Penn State to many people.
This is why he should never coach a single down of football at the school ever again. He is a symbol of what went wrong with this state institution. To let him coach Saturday and the remaining regular season and postseason games would be a slap in the face to the victims, particularly Saturday's home game against Nebraska. He'd likely have 100K strong on his side as his seniors play their last game at Beaver Stadium.
But what about the football players? Getting rid of the coach wouldn't be fair to them...Guess what? Their coach did something immoral. I feel bad for the players, who won't get to enjoy their Senior Day like many others across the nation get to. But when a clear violation of ethics is committed, you can't reward the violator by letting him dictate the terms of his dismissal - players or not. There's plenty of incidents in college sports where a current regime of players (currently USC) pays for the mistakes of previous coaches/players' mistakes. I don't think they should punish the current players by cancelling their games, but the person leading them in those games should NOT be Coach Paterno.
Some Final Thoughts
This whole story disgusts me, and it should disgust you too. I'm disgusted by not only the actions of Sandusky and those around him that failed to report the incidents in a timely matter, but also the people who can completely ignore the incident and sweep it under the rug because of how they've turned Paterno into a God at the college. Reactions by people who fully support Penn State, its coaches and staff after this incident are either people who have no kids (and thus, could not understand what it would be like to think of their kid being raped) or are completely blinded by someone they built to be a dictator of morality and everything else at Penn State.
I don't see how there could be gray area on this subject. While I do not have any children, I think of my younger cousins and young people around me and couldn't imagine how angry I would be if they were raped or molested. I think of how I might be as a father and how I might be in prison right now if someone did this to my kid.
I hear former players and some coaches spewing a bunch of crap on the matter and they all seem to support Joe Pa to the point where they think he should finish the season out. This is the typical response from athletes in controversial matters involving one of their own. If their kids had been the ones to be molested and Paterno failed to report it, you better believe they would be up in arms about him being able to finish out his coaching career in 2011.
Many alumni and fans of the team are unsure what to make of this. I have a few PSU fans - both regular readers of the blog - and they both expressed disgust over the matter. One of them just went to Beaver Stadium on Halloween weekend to watch PSU's 3-point win over Illinois, and he seems to still be processing the information and where he should go from here with his fandom. I can't blame him for this and wonder myself how I would react if this happened to my school (Illinois) or perhaps with one of the professional teams that I consider myself a fan of.
I'll leave you with one final thought: If you're wondering how you should react to this story (as if there should be a way other than complete disgust), just think - how would you feel if this was your nephew or niece, son or daughter?
11/03/2011
Crucial Taunt - More B-Bo NCAA Ramblings & Football picks for Week 9
The unofficial play-in game for the BCS title game is going on this weekend...LSU heads to their rival Alabama's home field for a Saturday night tilt that will decide who goes to the championship game. This is dependent on the winner not slipping between now and then - but for all intents and purposes, the winner will have a chance to extend the SEC's dominance in the title game. Oddsmakers currently have Bama tabbed as a 5 pt favorite with an O/U of 41. I have no idea what side to play, so I shouldn't. If anything, I think I'd like the Under in this battle. Watch for Les Miles to do something crazy that will make or break LSUs chances of going into January undefeated and going for the crown.
How come college programs don't get penalized for leaving conferences...and yet, players who dare transfer these same college programs to other college programs have to sit out a year (unless they have special circumstances)? I think a good deterrant for these teams would be to enforce the same rules that they have for the players - if they decide to switch conferences, they have to sit out a year. That'd really make WVU reconsider leaving the Big East. While I think my idea is slightly drastic, I hate that the NCAA continues to spew these double standards where multi-million dollar coaches can switch programs w/ no problem, teams that can switch conferences at will, yet unpaid players who want to switch teams have to miss a season. Sounds fair to me. F you, NCAA.
Fools Gold Pick of the Week (NFL Week 9)
Last week, we suffered another loss, 5-3 now (4-3, +$10). This week presents a different twist on the Fools Gold platter.
San Fran -3.5 at Washington - Washington is coming off a few sloppy losses, including a shutout at the hands of the Buffalo Bills - who aren't exactly known for their stout defense. Meanwhile, you have San Fran coming into town. The Niners boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, including an amazing stat of no rushing TDs allowed in the team's first seven games.
Normally this year, I would either avoid this game or bet against the deceiving line. However, I already threw some money on San Fran in this game. I can't even say it's a homer bet. I just don't see where Washington gets their points in this game. Alex Smith has been fantastic in managing the games (only 2 picks thrown this year) and the team continues to utilize Gore in the running game. I recommend not betting this game because of the deceiving line, so do as I say, not as I do.
Fools Gold Pick: Washington +3.5 (betting opposite of this for the first time this year)
Other NFL picks this week I am considering (follow me @brianbolek on Twitter for a full blast of games)
NYG (+9) at NE - I have already bet NYG. They always play up to the level of their competition. I expect their pass rush to give Brady fits. I expect this game w/in a touchdown either way.
SD (+5.5/6) vs. GB - I consider SD a buy-low candidate here. They're usually a good home team. I'd like to see SD go to +7 but doubt it. Haven't bet it yet.
Chi +8 at Phil - Too many points to spot the Bears. They contained Vick well last year, and Forte vs. the Eagles presents a big advantage to the Bears. Also might consider the under of this game as well (total of 47)
NCAA picks for Saturday
Iowa +4 vs. Michigan - play of the day
Washington +17 vs. Oregon
LSU/Alabama under 41
Ohio St/Indiana over 52
Wake Forest +13.5 (maybe catch it at 14)
| Week 8 | Week 9 |
| NFL 5-3, $104.10 | NCAA 5-4-1, $165 |
| Totals 1-2, -$60 | Totals 2-1-1, $60 |
| MLs 1-1, -$5.90 | MLs 0-2, -$90 |
| Spreads 3-0, $170 | Spreads 3-1, $195 |
| YTD: 31-25-3, $438.20 | YTD: 15-19-1, -$209 |
| Totals: 10-8-1, $219.60 | Totals: 2-4-1, -$160 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-5, -$260 |
| Spreads: 17-15-2, $16 | Spreads: 13-10, $256 |
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