After looking at my first post, I wasn't sure what direction this blog was gonna go in, but it should have been clear to everyone that this was going to be a sports blog with my gambling diatribes as a centerpiece.
College bets that were booked were 1-1, profit of $5 since I bet a little more on Mich St. (my lock of the weekend). Northwestern is a team I have to lay off for the time being, as they seem to play up (or down) to the level of their competition. NU ended my personal 6 bet winning streak, which followed a 6 bet streak that was ended by another Chicago-based team (the Bears), thus giving me reason to avoid the local teams. 12 out of 14 in the gambling world is nothing to sneeze at, but can't get too comfortable and excited when there's more money to be made. Gotta keep the focus and the faith. Let's start another streak and go for that elusive 5-0 week (a 4-1 weekend again would be no problem either).
NFL week 5 picks, here we go, with my bet in ( ):
Denver (+7) at Baltimore: Denver has been an under the radar team, mainly because of their inability to run the ball. Orton has picked up the slack and currently leads the league in passing as a result. They've been in every game going into the final quarter, losing to Jax by 7 and Indy by 14 (the latter due to the lack of a red-zone offense). On the other side, there's Baltimore, who is coming off a comeback victory over their #1 rival Pitt with a late-TD to secure the victory. While I expect Baltimore to be a team that can overcome the idea of a letdown game following such a victory, I think such a letdown is hard to avoid. I expect Balt to win a close battle by 3-4 points.
KC at Indy (-7): Indy is coming off a loss caused by some key turnovers and an insane game-ending field goal. KC has had a few weeks to prepare for this, but the fact that Indy lost last week gives me the feel that their focus will be on this game more than in years past where this might have been one of those "I can't wait to win this and move onto the next week" games. I expect Indy to show KC to be the future 8-8 team that they will be and win by two touchdowns, 31-17.
NYG at Hou (-3): NYG benefitted last week from the one-dimensional offense that the Bears feature. With no running game to worry about, NYG went on to set NFL history for most sacks in a half by consistent pressure- in the process knocking out golden-boy Cutler out of the game and having Bears fans searching for their nearest bottle of liquor and immediately injecting it into their veins. With a duel running/passing feature that Houston features, it'll be hard for NYG to do this again. While Houston's defense is nothing to worry about, NYG might be in trouble if Bradshaw can't play (Jacobs is a shadow of his former self and would make it necessary for Manning to lead the team to victory). I expect Houston to win by 7-10 here.
SD at Oakland (+6): I know Oakland hasn't fared well vs. SD lately, losing like the last dozen games or so in a row. Also, Darren McFadden is hurt. However, Michael Bush, who was tabbed by the team to be the feature back until he broke his thumb in the preseason, is a formidable back who can and will fill in for DMc very well. The Raiders aren't the same team in year's past that were forced to play JaMarcus Russell because of his bloaded contract. While Bruce Gradkowski isn't exactly Philip Rivers in terms of skill level, he's a guy who will keep his team in games. And taking the points here, I seem to be burying the lede - San Diego sucks!!! on the road, looking crappy against Kansas City and Seattle (in both cases, they were favorites). This line seems to be an example of people valuing previous years' results vs. actually looking at a team's tendencies now. I have Oakland winning this game and knocking some people out of their respective survivor pools.
New Orleans at Arizona (+6.5 or whatever they close at): If it smells like a line that's too good to be true, it usually is. Everyone is backing NO due to Ariz going to a rookie QB to replace Derek Anderson. But really, how much worse can it get than DA? This is Ariz's only chance of salvaging something out of this season (and yes, they have a shot being in the NFC We(r)st division). Call me crazy, but I think Max Hall finds Larry Fitz a lot more (and a lot more accurately) than Anderson did. New Orleans once again found themselves in a tight fourth quarter battle for the 4th game in a row last week, edging Carolina by two. NO doesn't have the flow they had last year, and with their top 2 backs ruled out for tomorrow, I don't see them getting that flow back. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona won, but I have NO winning yet another close one by 2-3 points. Let's say 27-24.
All bets are $55 to win $50.
Record in all sports since I restarted my gambling ways on September 4: 30-17-1 (+$486).
And by the way, go Yankees! 7 more wins till my preseason WS bet coming in.
