In the past several weeks, we've heard a lot about some of the streaking teams in the NFL and how they may be the best teams in the NFL. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Week 17 and will likely make it 11 barring an act of God when they face Kansas City. With a win, they guarantee themselves a bye week and possibly a #1 seed if Houston manages to lose.
In the NFC, Washington, Green Bay & Seattle hold the longest win streaks of teams on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has has one of the best statistical three-week runs in the NFL this year en route to its 4-game win streak entering its finale against St. Louis. The Seahawks have won by an AVERAGE of 50-10 in their last three games. Granted, only one of those games was against a legit opponent (San Fran), but there has to be some credit given. I expect Seattle to win in Week 17 and enter the playoffs with a 5-game streak to end the year. Washington enters Week 17 on a 6-game tear and will make the playoffs if they make it seven by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Green Bay can ensure a bye by beating the Vikings.
All of this talk about "hot teams" entering the playoffs got me thinking: what's the trend of teams entering the playoffs (specifically, the teams that make the Super Bowl)? Is there a trend for teams to end the year on a long streak to make/win the Super Bowl?
I looked back at the past ten years to see how playoff teams from each conference fared at the end of the regular season to see if these long streaks carried over into January. Outside of one exception, the team who entered the playoffs on the longest winning streak has not won the Super Bowl (New England in 2003 is the only team in the past decade to have the longest win streak and win the title).
Here are some fun facts from my findings of the past 10 years:
- Out of the 10 teams with the longest streak entering the playoffs, only three of those teams (NE '03, '07 & '11) even made the Super Bowl. There's been six teams who had at least a half-season winning streak (8+ wins) who didn't make the Super Bowl, including New Orleans last year.
- Out of the 20 conference champions, only 5 (25%) had the longest win-streak among their playoff conference counterparts. That means most teams who made it to the big game weren't the hottest team entering the playoffs.
- Super Bowl winners of the past 10 years have had the following streaks to end their years: won 12 (once), won 4 (once), won 2 (three times), won 1 (three times), lost 1 (once), lost 3 (once). While it doesn't necessarily pay to have a long win-streak to end the year, it seems as though something can be made of winning in the last week.
- Not related to the win streak thing, but it should be noted that out of the past seven Super Bowls, all but one of them has had a team who played in the Wild Card round - meaning that bye weeks don't seem to matter as much lately. Let's keep that in mind, Niners fans, should the Packers hold onto their 2nd seed. The only Super Bowl in this span containing teams that had byes was Indy vs. NO.
| AFC Champ | NFC Champ | Longest Win Streak entering playoffs (each conference) | |
| 2002 | Oakland (W2) | Tampa (W1) | Ten -5; NYG - 4 |
| 2003 | NE (W12) | Car (W3) | NE - 12; GB - 4 |
| 2004 | NE (W2) | Phil (L2) | Pitt - 14; Sea/StL/GB - 2 |
| 2005 | Pitt (W4) | Sea (L1) | Wash - 5; Pitt/Den - 4 |
| 2006 | Ind (W1) | Chi (L1) | SD - 10; Phil - 5 |
| 2007 | NE (W16) | NYG (L1) | NE - 16; Wash - 4 |
| 2008 | Pitt (W1) | Ariz (W1) | Ind - 9; Atl - 3 |
| 2009 | Ind (L2) | NO (L3) | SD - 11; Dal - 3 |
| 2010 | Pitt (W2) | GB (W2) | NE - 8; GB - 2 |
| 2011 | NE (W8) | NYG (W2) | NE - 8; NO - 8 |
| 2012 | ? | ? | Den - 10; Wash 6/GB & Sea 4 (entering Week 17) |
So what does this data tell us? I believe it's easy for us to go with what we've seen most recently and make a blanket judgment on what will happen in the playoffs, but recent history shows that teams riding long winning streaks have little-to-no-advantage entering the playoffs. And it's important to keep in mind that many of these teams with the longer streaks (Pitt, both SDs, NE in '10) lost home games in the playoffs.
Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.
Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.
Week 17 Picks
I honestly don't like much that's on the menu.
For some reason, I'm believing in Dallas (+3.5) beating Washington this week. I'm also rooting on my Dallas 75/1 bet to win the Super Bowl to have some life entering January.
The other games that have an effect on the playoffs (GB -3.5 at Min, Chi -3 at Det), I have no read on.
KC +16 at Denver seems tempting - I don't think Denver is going to run up the score. Miami +10 seems like a good bet too - Belichick will likely bench starters at a certain point of their Week 17 game when they realize that they will not get a first-round bye. I don't think he cares if they fall to the fourth seed (in that spot, they'd face Indy, who they romped earlier this year) if they lost.
Tune in next week as I go to Vegas for my 30th birthday and make some bets while I'm there. I'll look to preview the NFL playoffs tomorrow night. I'm willing to bet one team from the Wild Card round will make the Super Bowl - just a matter of who.
