MLB - Bold Predictions 2012

With baseball about to start, it's about time to make some predictions. I made some in my MLB preview last month, so here's some more.

• Adam Dunn will hit 30+ HRs once again - As my friend Nick mentioned to me yesterday, Dunn's numbers in 2011 could not have been predicted by anyone who studies baseball statistics for a living. His season really came out of nowhere, and for someone at his age (entered 2011 as a 31 year old), a sudden drop-off in numbers is quite rare. I'm dismissing the possible "steroids" angle that many suspect when numbers drop off drastically. Instead, I believe his appendix issue to start the year (where he had to have a surgery after the first week of the season) carried over into the season, which resulted in numbers that would have made 99% of major leaguers get demoted or booted out of baseball altogether. I believe we will see a happy medium between the 40 HR Dunn from the decade preceding 2011 and the craptacular version we saw last year.
• There will be at least one team who wins their division with division odds greater than 10/1 - Candidates for this include the NL Central (Cubs 21/1, Pirates 30/1, Astros 135/1), NL West (Padres 18/1), NL East (Mets 55/1), AL East (Blue Jays 12/1, Orioles 110/1) and AL Central (White Sox 12/1, Royals 14/1, Twins 17/1, Indians 90/1). All odds are from 5dimes. AL West odds are not available since two of their teams already played, but I'm willing to guess the two teams who did play (Athletics + Mariners) were both over 10/1. That means over 40% of teams are considered long shots to even make the playoffs. However, there's almost always one team that overachieves (i.e. Diamondbacks). I wouldn't be shocked (based on percentages) that it would be a team in the AL Central. The Tigers have a strong offense, but have a very suspect defense and some average arms behind last year's Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander. 
• The Nationals will be in a predicament in September. This first part is a big assumption. I have the Nationals pegged as a Wild Card team. Right now, they seem to be this sport's version of the Detroit Lions, where many experts are projecting postseason play for the first time in a long time. So what's going to be the issue? Two words: Stephen Strasburg. After coming off of Tommy John surgery, Strasburg is on a 160-innings pitched limit. I'd assume that includes the post season. If he stays healthy and doesn't miss a start...let's say he averages 6 innings a game. That would put him at 27 starts, assuming they go with a 5-man rotation the whole year. That would put them around the first or second week of September. Seems strange to make a guy your opening day starter but also cap his innings. The fan pressure may be too much to bench him for the year. I'm hoping (if they stick with this limit) that they skip his spot in the rotation several times and give a spot start to a minor leaguer. If they aren't in the division or wild card races, then shutting him down will be much easier to do.
• By the end of 2012, Chris Sale will be the White Sox best starting pitcher - We've seen what he can do in the bullpen. The Sox certainly didn't draft him to be in the bullpen though, so Adios to Buehrle, and a Hello to Sale. Expect corny Internet and newspaper headlines involving the southpaw's last name. For all of those syndicate newspapers that read my blog, here are some....you're welcome: Epic Sale; Setting Sale; At a Sale's Pace; Working on the Sale Road.
  
  Ok, I admit some of those are bad - but then again, so are a lot of headlines I read every day.
• The Marlins will win the World Series - I know Cubs fans feel depressed every time someone other than them wins it all, but even the White Sox, who almost moved to Florida in the mid 90s, have to feel a little ill that a team that has been around for less than 20 years already has two titles. If my prediction is correct, it would be 3. The Marlins aren't a huge underdog (20/1 odds puts them with the 8th best odds), but I consider it a bolder proclamation than saying the Yankees will win it all. As I mentioned in my MLB preview, I like their rotation, like their overall lineup better than anyone else in their division (Phillies included). I'd take the 20/1 odds but my friend who gives me access to the 5dimes site said our accounts are going to be shut down at the end of the NBA playoffs.
• *Future Prediction...The Cubs Will Win a World Series Before the White Sox Win Another - I am sold on Epstein as a winner and think he will get the North Siders going in the right direction a lot quicker than Kenny Williams will the White Sox. Epstein helped push Boston over the edge in 2004 and then again in 2007, mainly by building up their minor league system. Pieces they didn't use (i.e. Hanley Ramirez) were traded for pieces that helped win them World Series (i.e. Josh Beckett). I think a focus on better scouting, which involves some Sabermetrics (for those not in the know, think of the movie Moneyball), and not a heavy reliance on free agency (although every good team needs some good free agent signings) will help bring the Cubs back to the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. As far as the White Sox go, to put it in a baseball analogy, I've seen enough of Kenny Williams to know that he has swung and missed more than he has connected. I'd like to see a new GM in town in the next couple years.