Closer to Go(o)d: Some Surprising Stats on the Recent Use of Closers in Baseball

As I sit staring at my computer screen Sunday afternoon while Fernando Rodney did the best he could to blow a ninth-inning lead for the second straight day, I couldn't help but think that the Tampa Bay Rays would need to fix this problem in order to have any shot at winning the World Series. With how stubborn some managers can be to make change when the team is winning (the Rays have won 15 of their last 17 games), I was wondering how reluctant Joe Maddon might be to pull the struggling closer from his late-inning duties for someone else in the pen (maybe even through a trade).

To help me out with this (to see if Maddon might do this), I was surprised to see a certain trend that has developed in the past ten years when it comes to successful teams changing closers during the season. Dating back to the Marlins use of Ugueth Urbina (acquired via mid-season trade), there have been seven teams who have made the World Series while using a closer down the stretch and into the playoffs who was not the closer on the team to start the year. The other six new closers were with the team to start the year as middle relievers or set-up guys. Many of these guys had been with the organization for several years before even getting their first real chance to close.

Here's a list of the closer match-ups and career saves for the World Series winners and losers since 2001. The save total mentioned is how many career saves they had entering the season that they made the World Series:
 

		WS Winner		WS Loser
2012		Romo* (3)		Valverde (242)
2011		Motte* (3)		Feliz (42)
2010		Wilson (86)		Feliz (2)
2009		Rivera (482)		Lidge (164)
2008		Lidge (123)		Wheeler* (25)
2007		Papelbon (35)		Corpas* (0)
2006		Wainwright* (0)		Jones (226)
2005		Jenks* (0)		Lidge (30)
2004		Foulke (143)		Isringhausen (130)
2003		Urbina* (174)		Rivera (243)
2002		Percival (210)		Nen (271)
2001		Kim (15)		Rivera (165)
		*less regular season saves than main closer, but used as closer in playoffs

I was surprised to see a few things here:

1. The lack of experience that the closers who have won World Series this decade. Seven of the last eight World Series have had a closer who entered the season with 25 or less career saves.
2. The number of times a team has had the balls to change a closer during the season. For seven managers to do this in the midst of successful seasons is a testament to how good of managers some of these guys are. In many of these cases, the new closer likely saved the team from missing the postseason altogether.
3. Brad Lidge is tied with Mariano Rivera for most times being the closer of a World Series team this century.

Using this data, it makes me feel a lot better about my Tampa Bay Rays World Series bet, which I made before the season started. Well, assuming Maddon follows his own example from 2008, when he used Dan Wheeler to close down the stretch for a struggling/injured Troy Percival.

Closer to Another Change?

Another item that signals a potential change in closer for the Rays is their willingness over the last half decade to not rely on any particular closer for a multiple year period. I broke down the save leaders on each team from 2008 to 2012 to see how often, from year-to-year, teams had a shift in closers.

The Rays are among three teams who have had a different reliever lead the team in saves for each of the past five seasons. The others (Blue Jays and Nationals) have had far less success in this time period than the Rays (458 - 352 record, 56.5%) in this stretch.

In all, there have been 75 different relievers to lead a team in saves over the past five seasons. With 150 total team seasons played in this span for MLB's 30 teams, this means that the average closer has led his team in saves for two seasons (and since full-time closers always get the most saves on a team, you can argue that this is the lifespan of the average closer).

The breakdown of how many times these relievers led their respective teams in saves:

• Three closers have led a team in saves for all five years during this stretch (Jose Valverde, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street), all of whom have played for multiple teams during this stretch.
• Nine closers have led four years, including Kevin Gregg, who has led four different teams in saves during this time (the only player with this distinction).
• 13 closers have led three years - this is the most common length of a closer's career it seems.
• 10 closers have led two years.
• 40 closers have led a team in saves for only one season.

This data confirmed what I have learned to be true of closers. The Riveras of the world are few and far between, so never buy into the notion of a closer being an elite one until they have lasted at least 3 or 4 years in a closer's spot. Even then, many of these guys aren't the greatest closers, but rather perceived to be (the save stat is highly flawed, as just about any major league pitcher - closer or not - should be able to protect the leads required to qualify for a save). That's not to say that the idea of having a great closer is flawed - it helps tremendously to have a guy down the stretch of a close game who can blow guys away with a great heater and perhaps another great pitch or two. If I can find the time and a good site for this data, I would love to break down closer's save percentages when handed over a lead of just one run (as opposed to a two or three run lead).

Most closers have a short shelf-life for several reasons:

• Many times, relievers become relievers because they sucked as starting pitchers. Not too many pitchers actually get drafted as relievers when they come out of college. If they sucked as starting pitchers, they're likely to be relievers for the rest of their career should it be something they excel at - otherwise they won't last long in the big.
  
  In a typical good reliever's career, there will be a handful of seasons that aren't as good. Sometimes, these seasons are bad enough to prevent these guys from ever getting another closing gig. Or you may argue that some of these guys had fluke seasons during their brief success and their lack of talent eventually caught up to them when the league figured them out (like Shingo Takastu with the White Sox).
  
• In the case of some closers, especially the ones who have led a team in saves only once, they were the replacement for a closer who got hurt early in the season. Sometimes, these guys are able to handle the role well and last more than a couple seasons as closer for another team.
  
• Certain guys get pigeon-holed into specific roles that cannot be explained. A closer-in-waiting, who has better overall numbers and stuff than the guy closing, may never get a full-time chance to be closer if his manager prefers to stick with a guy he likes who might have more experience than these guys "in waiting". 

For my bet's sake, here's to hoping that Maddon will not fall back on the recent success that the Rays have had (they may not be as lucky to survive in the playoffs if Rodney keeps allowing all these base runners) and opts to replace the struggling closer with someone else, perhaps a guy like Jake McGee, who has a great K/9 (11.8), K/BB (5.13) and WHIP (0.93).

I'll take my chances with those numbers than with Rodney, who issues too many walks to be counted on to close out games long-term (an eye-popping 5.4 BB/9 & 1.35 WHIP this season, numbers which are more on par with his career numbers than last year's numbers of 1.8 BB/9 & 0.78 WHIP).

Oh yeah, and one more thing that would work perfect with McGee, at least when it comes to recent World Series trends: he has only 1 career save, earned earlier this season.