When you're gonna be wrong, make sure you're really, really wrong.
Robin & Bat Men - The Surprise Hire on the South Side
The White Sox shocked everyone by hiring one of their former players as manager. Robin Ventura comes back to the South Side not only new to managing, but also a cherry when it comes to coaching. The shock of hiring him should begin and end with that fact.
Reinsdorf is not a fan of spending money on managers (i.e. hiring managers with experience), so anyone who has seen his history should know that Terry Francona (who would have likely commanded double what they were going to pay Ozzie) was never really a serious option.
I wish Ventura well, but he's gonna need some help. Paging crazy Kenny Williams signing/trade.
King Wrong
Aside from my World Series predictions, other things I've been wrong on lately:
- Detroit Lions - While I don't think they will win the NFC North, the Lions have shown to me that they are in it to win it (love me some cliches). Megatron's catch in triple coverage last week in their comeback victory against the Cowboys just goes to show you how unguardable he is. Best receiver in the league.
- San Francisco 49ers - I know it's still early, but the Niners are the only team in the NFL w/ a 2 game lead on everyone in its division. They have one of the best defenses in the league so far statistically, but their offense is horsecrap. It did shows some signs of life against the Eagles. I never would have guessed that Alex Smith would have engineered two 4th quarter comebacks for the season, yet alone back-to-back road games. Maybe there is something to Jim Harbaugh and molding quarterbacks. He's the best coach that Alex Smith has had in his career.
- Fantasy football - specifically my money leagues. In my three money leagues, I am sporting a combined 2-10 record, with my only two wins in the league that I am the commissioner. In one of the leagues, injuries have exposed lack of depth; the other 0-4 league shows mild promise, but I doubt it is any more salvageable than the other winless league. Looks like my energy of winning $ this year will come solely from my gambling pursuits.
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5) - So far, the theme for the Fools Gold pick has been spotting a road team (always a favorite) that has caught the public's eye as "The Team to Bet" for the week. This week, a road favorite has caught my attention all the same for this column, but for the opposite reason.
Every Sunday night or Monday morning, I always look at the next week's schedule of games and set my own lines before looking on 5dimes to see what gamblers have set the line at. Over the years, I have gotten sharp at getting close to every game on the schedule to within a point of the spread that ends up being released. The games I am far apart on the bookmakers, I will usually assess what caused the difference in line.
My line on the Bills/Eagles game had Buffalo as a 2 point favorite, so needless to say, I was shocked when the Eagles were a -2.5 point favorite in my book. Never before has there been a 1-3 team favorites to a 3-1 team when the 3-1 team is hosting, so my shock was justified in seeing the line.
However, after thinking about the Eagles' losses and actively watching two of them from beginning to end, I'm reminded of how talented the Eagles are and how close they were to being 4-0 (Vick injuries in week 2 and 3 and turnovers/missed kicks in week 4). This isn't to say that the Bills are push-overs, but I don't think their defense will be sharp enough to handle the Eagles plethora of weapons. You could say the same thing about the Patriots game, but if you watch that game, several of the interceptions were not really caused by the Bills defense but rather the Patriots receivers themselves.
I think the Eagles get back on track en route to getting back to a playoff caliber level. Eagles win by 10. This week's pick (and already booked): Philadelphia -2.5
Last week's result: Cincy covered the +3 spread in a straight-up victory of Buffalo
YTD: Fools Gold is sporting a 4-0 record. I have bet on the last three games on 5dimes (2 spreads, 1 money line) and have profited $170.
Likely Week 5 Picks
Carolina +6.5/7 vs. New Orleans - Cam Newton has rejuvenated a Panthers offense that was completely anemic last year. So far, Carolina has went 3-0-1 against the spread (the only record gamblers care about), which shows me that Carolina is improving. I thought that the Bears' defense might cause him some problems last week, but was I wrong (the wrong theme continues). I think the Panthers will keep this close and may even pull off an upset. I'm hoping to catch this line at +7.
Atlanta +6/7 vs. Green Bay - I hope to get Atlanta at +7. Matt Ryan is money at home, so spotting him a touchdown sounds more insane than betting against the Packers at this point. Falcons are a different home team and will get some revenge for their embarrassing loss to the Packers in the playoffs in January
Detroit -5 vs. Chicago - Now that the Lions have the attention of the nation, it only makes sense that they make their first Monday Night appearance in eons this week. The Bears showed themselves to be solid against Matt Ryan in Week 1, but have been shredded up by Drew Brees (270 yards, 3 TDs), Aaron Rodgers (297 yards, 3 TDs) and Cam Newton (374 yards, 1 TD). I expect Stafford to continue what he's been doing with Calvin Johnson, who has destroyed all corners and safeties that have come his way.
Other bets I am considering: Indy -2.5; NYJ +9.5. No totals have caught my eye yet.
Gambling on NFL & NCAA so far:
| Week 4 | Week 5 |
| NFL 3-5, -$75 | NCAA 0-0 |
| Totals 0-4, -$220 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 3-1, $145 | Spreads 0-0 |
| YTD: 18-12-3, +$314 | YTD: 8-12, -$325 |
| Totals: 7-5-1, +$127 | Totals: 0-3, -$220 |
| MLs: 2-0, +$126 | MLs: 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads: 9-7-2, +81 | Spreads: 8-6, +$65 |
As always, I recommend following my picks on twitter.com/brianbolek or @brianbolek
Enjoy this week's action. I haven't decided if I'm betting any NCAA yet. Last week I held off, in part to not liking much and in part to the Buddy thing.
Good luck to your fantasy teams, bets and most importantly, your REAL teams!
