We're still over 3 months away from the regular season starting, yet I can't stop thinking about it. The sport itself is enough to enjoy, but add to it the element of fantasy football and gambling, and we have a recipe for my favorite sport. While it is not the most timely of topics, it is one I cannot avoid.
Below are futures bets (odds to win the Super Bowl) that I'd consider great values at the moment. I'll eventually write an NFL preview with predictions and may not have the same opinion of the teams listed below as I do now.
Remember too, for gamblers, betting on odds to win the Super Bowl isn't always about picking the team who will win it all, but rather what team can guarantee you some profit depending on their level of advancement in the playoffs. Profit should always be the goal, so hedging against these picks in the playoffs would guarantee some money back either way.
Without further ado...
7. Kansas City - 50/1...A year removed from a division championship, the Chiefs offer great value for a team that resides in the NFL's new worst division. Last year, it felt like the entire Chiefs team got injured with ACL injuries in the first couple weeks. With a presumably healthy Jamaal Charles & Matt Cassel coming back, along with a nice complement for Charles in Peyton Hillis, I believe that the Chiefs have a great chance to win the division again. My initial thought of winning this division a few weeks ago was San Diego, but I'm not sure how much I can trust a team led by Norv Turner, who must have naked pictures on the Chargers owner for continually avoiding the chopping block.
6. St. Louis - 80/1...The Rams have a well-respected coach taking the helm this year. Like the AFC West, we're not talking about one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. If Bradford can stay healthy behind center, I expect the Rams to surpass the Vegas win total of 6 for the 2012 season by at least two games. I don't think the Rams are better or more talented than the 49ers, but even I know that the leap the Niners took from 2010 to 2011 is likely to have a regression of sorts. If that regression is in the 9-10 win range, I think the Rams could threaten for the division. Another great thing about the Rams is the tremendous amount of youth on their team - it could end up working in their favor.
5. Miami - 40/1...In the first half of 2011, the Dolphins were looking like strong contenders to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Then, after an 0-7 start, something strange happened...they started winning. They closed the second half of the year with a 6-3 record, with many blowout wins in that stretch (their average margin of victory in those 6 games was about 16 points). They were even slaughtering the Patriots in a Christmas Eve tilt before Brady and company came back and stole one at home. The Dolphins may have drafted Ryan Tannehill for the future, but I believe Matt Moore's solid run down the stretch behind center deserves a second look entering the season. I could see Miami contending for a Wild Card in the AFC, with an outside shot at the AFC East crown if New England loses Brady for a significant period of time.
4. Chicago - 28/1...Last year, I liked the odds they had in the preseason as well, and their odds looked like a steal until Cutler and Forte went down in mid-November and their team, which looked like a team who could make a run in the playoffs (despite the likelihood of playing nothing but road games), went to completely crap. A 7-3 start was followed by a 1-5 stumble in the last 6 games without Cutler. This year, Cutler and Forte are back and have experienced backups (Jason Campbell and Michael Bush) that would make injuries to the starters less harmful to the season's prospects. With Brandon Marshall in the fold, Cutler has his favorite target from Denver. Their defense has hardly ever been an issue, so I expect them to be strong there again. Division champions have about a 50% turnover rate every year, so it would not shock me to see either the Bears or Lions overtake the Packers in the NFC North and have a high seed in the playoffs.
3. Carolina - 44/1...After seeing what Cam Newton did in his first year behind center, I am a big believer in his abilities and I think he will be in the elite QB discussion for the next 10 years. A blog of mine back in January pointed out that most teams who win Super Bowls have a Hall-of-Fame quality QB behind center, and while it was only his first year, I believe Newton's career arc will have him contending for Super Bowls in the near future. With the leaps that teams make from year to year, who's to say the Panthers can't go from 2-14 to 11-5/12-4 in a two-year span? Consider me one of the first on their bandwagon.
2. New Orleans - 16/1...The Saints are one of the most difficult teams to project in the NFL. The coach who led them to the Super Bowl - suspended for year. Some key defensive players - suspended for portions of the year (Vilma for the entire year). I wouldn't be surprised if the distractions of what has happened this offseason caused the Saints to dip to an 8-8 or 7-9 record. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if Brees and company picked up where they left off last year and dominated their division once again. The latter thought is what makes me think that New Orleans has great value at this price. If NO were to make the playoffs in a similar fashion as last year, their odds will end up being a lot lower. And don't forget - if they do make the Super Bowl, it would be a home game, with the Superdome as host for this year's big game.
1. Detroit - 23/1...Stud QB, check. Stud WR, check. Stafford and Calvin Johnson showed what they can do together in a full season, which led Detroit to their first playoff appearance in centuries. In a passing league, having elite guys at these positions is key to making a series run at a ring. The front part of their line with Fairley & Suh is as talented as they come. The one thing I worry about with the Lions is their character issues. Fairley, Titus Young & Mikel Leshoure have all been arrested this offseason for various reasons. Leshoure missed 2011, but he could be the key in Detroit taking the next step in 2012. If the Lions could add a running attack to that passing offense, the Lions could be contending for the #1 seed in the NFC. There's still some issue with a weak secondary, but I place Detroit as the best value in terms of somewhat long-shots because I believe their ceiling is the highest of these teams. It'd be a risky 23/1, but one that could pay itself off in a big way.
