2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend

As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.

Random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
2. Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
3. Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
4. One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
5. The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
6. Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
7. The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
8. After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.

Championship Games

I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:

• This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
• There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
• Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
• San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
• The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.

Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:

1. Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
2. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
3. Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.

With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.

New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).

Bracket Update & Other Sport Shorts

Boy, it's been a slow sports week, hasn't it? Hard to believe that the Peyton Manning signing to Denver is not even top 3 news this week. This Saints fiasco along with Tebow being traded to the Jets, then not, then supposedly being able to "choose" the Jets over the Jaguars after all, has made for an interesting start to the week. And notice....this is all NFL news - a season that doesn't even start for another six months.

The important news first:

Bracket challenge (Brian vs. Jen - Winner Winner gets Dinner Dinner)

Once again, it looks like I picked the wrong upsets for the 18th year in a row. To date, I think the best upset I ever picked in a Round 1 was San Diego over Uconn in 2008. I tried a 14 over 3 (St. Bonnies shat all over themselves at the end, going for two 2s while down 3 with less than 6 seconds left), 12 over 5 (S Florida worked, but I hardly call that an upset), but most of them ended up failing. I only had 8 of 16 Sweet 16 teams right, with the biggest seed I picked correctly left being Xavier as a 10.

Meanwhile, the lady has a one point lead on me (37 to 36), with her edging me by 1 point in the first round and also landing just 8 of 16 Sweet 16 squads. Her championship team (Kansas) was trailing much of the game against Purdue, but they managed to squeak out a win and advance to play the lowest seed remaining in the tourney, facing the #11 seeded NC St on Friday night.

Luckily, ALL of my Final Four teams are alive (Louisville, Ohio St, Kentucky, UNC), so I have a good chance to get this dinner from the girlfriend. She lost two of her Final Four, with Murray State & Vanderbilt falling within an hour of each other this past Saturday (she has Kansas & Kentucky left). I'll have to pick something good for her to make - perhaps one of her BBQ chicken pizzas (mmmmmm). I have a great shot of winning this if I can land 2 or 3 of my Final teams and Kanas doesn't win it all. I'd love to win this bracket challenge so I don't have to eat these words. I'd rather eat a homemade pizza to be honest.


NFL News Galore!

I must say the week didn't start out the way I wanted it for the Niners. Peyton Manning decided he'd rather end his career in Mile High than go to a team that was two muffed punts away from a Super Bowl last year. I don't give a crap about Alex Smith's confidence coming from this. With this being a business, I don't have any sympathy for these guy's feelings. He had a chance to sign with other teams, but didn't, so here we are. He has a new contract with the Niners (3 years I believe, I don't feel like looking it up), which I believe gives us a chance for outs each year in case he regresses back to 2005-2010 Alex Smith. Colin Kaepernick remains the back-up. I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do sooner rather than later - I think he will start 2013 as the man behind center. He may even get an extended look at points this year if Smith shows off his old form. Remember, Smith has been benched for the likes of Troy Smith and T.J. Sullivan, among others, so it wouldn't shock me if Harbaugh took a good look at CK for a chance to start at some point in 2012.

Coming from the Manning news, Tebow was traded to the Jets (along w/ a draft pick) for a couple of picks. I don't consider this a major move for any of these teams' futures, only more of a distraction for the Jets. I follow an NFL beat writer from NY on Twitter (Bart Hubbuch), who was losing his mind with all the NFL news going on today - and only half of it had to do with his city. Many people who root for Tebow root for him irrationally. By that, it's not so much perfomance-based as it is what he represents - a supposed underdog who leads his team to victory. I won't even bring up the religion angle (ok, I just did, screw that), as that plays a big part in his cultish following, who for some reason thinks he is a capable NFL QB. I admire his work ethic and his attitude, but I give him a 1% chance of ever being a great quarterback consistently. I give Alex Smith 5%, so that tells you what I think of each of them.

The Saints' aftermath of BountyGate was done in true Roger Goddell fashion, in the form of a year-long suspension for the coach, indefinite suspension for the hitman orchestrator Gregg Williams & the loss of draft picks for the Saints the next couple years, among other things. No player suspensions have come of this year, but there will be. Current and former Saints are shocked, with Drew Brees speaking highly of Sean Payton and wanting more information as to why the punishment was so steep. Apparently, Brees has been living under a rock all these weeks since the story broke. Lord knows Brees would be asking for the league to lay similar suspensions and punishments on another team (say the Falcons) if they were found to have a bounty on him. He doesn't give a crap only because it was his team bending the rules.

Speaking of Brees, any chance this debacle makes him leave New Orleans? I'm not sure how competitive the team will be this year - I expect this to be a HUGE distraction this year. And you know referees are going to be flag-happy this year against the Saints, with any hint of late hits getting a fast yellow hanky on the ground. I know Brees is franchised right now, but it makes me highly question his length of stay in the Big Easy.

Baseball is Back (Almost)

If you haven't already looked at my 2012 Baseball Preview, I suggest you get reading it RIGHT NOW RIGHT HERE. I am looking forward to baseball returning, if only for the consistent nice weather - although this weather right now resembles it right now.

I just finished my first fantasy baseball draft, having the last pick of a 10-team draft. I drafted former teammates Ryan Braun & Prince Fielder with the first picks. Some other highlights include getting a pair of aces with my next two picks (Lincecum & Felix Hernandez) and me drafting both ends of the Mariners-Yankees trade from the offseason (Michael Pineda, Jesus Montero). If you really want my whole team analysis, I'll be glad to provide it to you. I also drafted a couple of White Sox (Brent Morel & Matt Thornton), which usually ends up happening even though I'd prefer to keep my homerism out of these drafts. I did absolutely no draft study on this, so we'll see how this year turns out.


Until next time, peace out my folks.

49ers 86'ed: The Numb(ers) Game

You got to lose to know how to win - Steven Tyler

Figured it would be a good quote to lead with for several reasons, not sure if the less or more obvious of which is the American Idol that featured the singer as a judge moments after the NFC championship game ended.

I'm not really sure how much I buy into the quote. I do think it helps a little to be experienced to know what it takes to become a better team and win a championship.

On the other hand, the fact that there were 10 different NFC teams in a row to win the NFC Championship shows that sometimes experience couldn't have meant a whole lot. The Rams didn't need it back in 2000; Giants didn't need it in 2008. I'm sure there's some examples where experience may have meant something.

You can't tell me experience won the game for the Giants this time around. I don't think them being in this position 4 years ago helped them out at all now. Although I don't think it hurt them.

The Killers

Alex Smith did revert somewhat back to the old version of himself - prime example on why he should not receive more than a year extension. He one-hopped too many throws and highlighted one of the Niners' many problems this year - third down conversions. The Niners' 1-of-13 on third down is what killed them.

The Kyle Williams' fumbles were terrible, particularly the last one, which caused me to fall face first onto the floor and bury my head like a groundhog. In fact, the shadow afterwards that I saw signified that we would have 6 more hours of spring this month immediately.

However, I can't get mad at him for too long- as shocking as that is to hear. Ted Ginn Jr.'s injury could be the biggest injury that affected the playoffs west of the Chicago Lakefront. Williams was put in a tough spot as a backup and showed you how special your special teams need to be to win (or at least not lose) a game.

It would have been easier for me to deal with if Eli did what he did against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. At least I would have felt that the Giants earned the win more.

I really wish that the refs didn't blow the whistle on the Bradshaw fumble in the 4th, instead ruling forward progress. I don't care what Mike Perrara (I'm not in the mood to spell check, pretty sure this spelling is wrong, screw him) said - 95% of the time, that is called a fumble.

With that not called, we have to move on. No excuses. Just venting on something that would normally be called a fumble.

The Niners had their chances to win and didn't capitalize. The Giants made more plays and took advantage of both huge mistakes that Kyle Williams made.

Mr. Brightside

(Music fans - hope you like the sub-headers I created here. If not, well, shit.)

On the bright side, there's no way in the world you could have convinced me before the season started that my team would be playing in the overtime of the NFC Championship game, on the brink of the franchise's 6th Super Bowl.

All (not some) of the credit goes to the coach-of-the-year Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh took an arguably  underachieving squad from 2010 who finished 6-10 with Mike "The Mooner" Singletary as coach into an overachieving squad that could have very easily been one of the two teams to play February football.

With Harbaugh firmly entrenched as the coach for the next couple years, I believe that the Niners will remain competitive and be a threat to make the playoffs every year. I do think the NFC West is an improving division, so winning it will be more of a challenge in future years than it may have appeared this year.

Next year, we have the NFC North, AFC East & the Saints and Giants on our schedule in addition to the normal division schedule. Things change year to year, so it's hard to say if this will be a difficult schedule.

I think it will. I see a 9-7, 10-6 year if we have Alex Smith starting again, which may be good enough to squeeze out the NFC West again, but more likely as a 3 or 4 seed this time around.

I hope Kaepernick is given the chance to compete for the starting spot next year. I also hope we are able to snag a go-to wide receiver either in free agency or some kind of draft-day trade - Crabtree is not the answer.

No Excuses

I am not one of those people who will sit there and blame the refs for the loss. Most fans of most teams who lose in spots like this (close game in OT) will like to highlight some BS calls that go against their team. Not this guy.

The Giants earned the win. Eli is a tough QB who has nothing left to prove on whether he is an elite QB (he is).

A guy who set the QB record for road wins in the playoffs cannot be a slouch. Sure, you need good people around you, but you also need to have an incredible amount of talent to put your team in that position.

Winning on the road in the NFL is tough, no matter where you go. I'm not convinced this team would have beat the Saints in the NFC Championship with the home advantage the Saints have, but the Niners' comeback win took that away from the Saints.

I wish the Giants the best of luck in two weeks - they are going to need it.

I see the line is around New England -4 with an over/under at about 55.5. Both of those seem too high on initial read, and I heavily lean on a more defensive battle - kinda like the ones the teams played in their wins today. A field goal could be the difference in this game as it has in all of the other Patriots' Super Bowls after Super Bowl XX.

Last Train Out

This is officially my last NFL blog of 2011-12 w/ having a horse in the race.

Thank you to my friends who rooted for the Niners from afar - showed great class as your team's hopes went down either with the injury of Jay Cutler or one too many blown 4th quarter leads (damn Bears/Cowboys). I know I am missing a few teams from my friend's rooting interests, but you get the point.

One game remains - unfortunately San Fran will not be represented.

Made up my mind, gonna make a new start...Going to California with an aching...in my heart.

Thanks for that lyric Zeppelin...and thanks for this season Niners.

Let's do what we can to make it happen next year.

It's important to keep perspective as a sports fan and realize that sports are a fantastic distraction in our lives yet at the same time can seem like the only thing in our lives.

I still got a great girlfriend, great family and great friends.

Remember that the next time your team fails you. Perspective.

Brass Baughs: How the Niners Coach Defied Conservative Nature of NFL to Win Saturday

Did you happen to catch the rare occurence at the end of that Saints/49ers game?

No, I'm not talking about the 4 lead changes in the last 3 minutes (a playoff first).

I'm also not talking about Alex Smith's squad besting a team led by the NFL-record holder of passing yards in a season.

I'm talking about Jim Harbaugh. Specifically, the pair of brass balls that he possessed at the end of the game to go for the touchdown.

Sure, it doesn't seem like much of a risk to the average person, especially with a timeout left in the team's pocket with 14 seconds left. However, with how much conservatism we are used to seeing in the NFL on a weekly basis, the chance of a ball getting picked off or turned over would be in the minds of many coaches. Many coaches within that range (14 yard line, down 3) would play it safe and kick the field goal to force overtime.

If Alex Smith throws a pick, analysts would pick apart why Harbaugh would call for such a risky play when overtime is well within reach with a short field goal and a Pro-Bowl kicker. Nevermind that the Niners have the least number of turnovers in the league this year. A play that goes against the ultra-conservative nature of the NFL would get Harbaugh lambasted if it backfires.

You may remember John Madden suggesting to Tom Brady & the Patriots to take a knee and play for overtime on their last drive in their upset against the Rams in 2002. With this line of thinking, Madden represents the crowd of people who suggest playing it safe versus going for the winner while it is in your control and risking the chance of loss.

There are several problems with this conservative line of thinking that make the Harbaugh-types seem rational:

1. This assumes you can control your fate better when delaying the outcome of the game. Who is to say how the coin with flip in overtime? Even with the new rules, if the team who gets the ball scores the TD right away, the game is over. You don't think the Saints could score on the initial possession of OT easier than most?
2. Sports are about winning, not avoiding loss. Unfortunately, too many guys will be uber-conservative and take the chance of losing through that route rather than risking blowing a lead or a chance of tying a game.

One memory engrained in my head came from the Niners' previous coach, Mike Singletary, against the Minnesota Vikings in Brett Favre's first of two seasons there. No one speaks of the way Singletary handled the team's last drive when they were holding onto a 4 point lead with less than 2 minutes left - frankly because he was playing it by the book. Singletary called for three straight runs so that the Vikings would use all 3 of their timeouts, including a run on 3rd and long.

As any Niners fan remembers from that game, Favre got the ball back with plenty of time and found Greg Lewis in the back of the endzone much to the delight of the Metrodome crowd. Moments from being 3-0, Singletary didn't learn that the best way to win a game is when the ball is in your hands. On third and long, when a team can win a game with just one first down, a run is conceding control of winning the game. Especially against a hall-of-fame quarterback.

Take the opposite scenario: a few years back, the Patriots were holding onto a lead against the Colts and had a fourth and one in their own territory. I emphasize "holding onto" since the Colts had stormed back from a three-score deficit. About 30-31 coaches at that time would have punted the ball and taken their chances with stopping Peyton Manning one time with less than two minutes to spare.

However, Bellichick decided that he didn't want to take his chances with his defense against Peyton and instead went for it. Needless to say, they didn't convert; Peyton led the Colts on a short drive for a TD and Bellichick was raped in the press for going for it.

They failed to mention that a conversion would have sealed a Patriots victory. Also failed to mention that Peyton Manning is the other team's QB and was as automatic as they came at that time.

The "by-the-book" nature that many media & football personnel make moves like that (getting 1 yard to seal a win) seem absurd and yet allows guys like Singletary off the hook for running it three times with the ultimate intention of getting the team to burn three timeouts only to punt.

Let's give Harbaugh his credit for going for the win.

He showed that having a pair of brass ones is the best way to play.

The Game of My Life

Oh when the Saints....go marching out.....

In the same endzone Terrell Owens caught The Catch II about 13 years ago, Vernon Davis secured an Alex Smith touchdown pass with 9 seconds left that brought Candlestick Park off its hinges in Saturday's 36-32 win over the Saints. Coupled with the Packers loss yesterday, the Niners get a chance to create another playoff miracle at home.

The Niners' last three playoff games at home have produced Instant Classics:

Niners 36, Saints 32 (1/14/2012) - Any football fan who watched this one got treated to the game of the week (possibly the year). Despite Drew Brees' 400 million passing yards, our own QB (which I was reluctant to call him to start the year to say the least) created his own page in 49ers playoff miracles. I'm not quite sure how I can ever go to a better game than this in my lifetime - and this is not hyperbole talking.

Here's the best catch I've ever seen made in my life. I will get teary-eyed watching on highlight shows for the next decades to come: Vernon Davis catch

Oh when the Saints go marching out...

Niners 39, Giants 38 (1/5/2003) - I remember watching this game in the basement with some of my friends. When the score reached 38-14 in the third quarter, I was having my doubts. But a spirited comeback led by Jeff Garcia (331 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) helped give the Niners one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history (next to the Frank Reich/Buffalo Bills comeback). The game ended with a botched field goal snap leading to a duck of a pass that seemed to be airborne for several minutes. I panicked seeing a flag down by the area where a Giants player was pushed down, but the penalty was called on the Giants.

The next week, we lost to the eventual SB champion Buccaneers.

Niners 30, Packers 27 (1/3/1999) - This is when The Catch II happened, but we got lucky on that last drive when a Jerry Rice catch wasn't ruled a fumble on the field. Still, the game, like the two mentioned above, featured a 4th quarter comeback. Out of the three, it also featured the best QB matchup in Favre vs. Young.

Like Saturday's game, it had the opponent score a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. Also eerily similar (as mentioned before) was the spot of the field that the Niners played hauled in the winning score, with similar jarring hits that the receivers (1999 - TO, 2012 - Vernon Davis) absorbed while holding onto the ball. The comeback against the Giants featured a touchdown with a minute left as well - I don't know how we keep getting in these close home playoff games spread apart, but we do. While the Saints game, we didn't need to score a TD with less than 10 seconds left, in these other games we did.

Here's TO's catch...another chill-inducer: TO catch


Oh how would I love to be in that stadium, when the Saints go marching out!

Internal debate resides within me on whether I will go to this next game. If I do go, I'm likely staring at buying a solo ticket since most of my friends cannot afford this expenditure, the g/f is going to Puerto Rico this week, and I doubt my friend Matt will want to go again. I'd also be looking for a way to make this a Sunday morning flight, cab it right to stadium and then possibly come back the same night.

Realistically, I'll be watching it with loyal B-Bo Knows readers Chris Williams and Nick Pazoles. I'm giving myself a Tuesday night deadline on buying these tickets. I need a break from San Fran to assess it rationally and financially.

Now finally....time to get some sleep. A work week awaits me. I'm sure I'll have a Niners preview cooked up later in the week.

Where ever I watch Sunday's game against the Giants, I will wear my Niner heart on my sleeve, rooting on my team that keeps adding to its playoff lore and hopefully has a few more victories left in the tank.

No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl

In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).

Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.

I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).

Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.

But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.

Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.

Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.

Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.

Possible playoff opponents

If they get a bye...

New Orleans -  This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.

If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.

If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)

Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.

Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.

Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.

Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.

NYG -  Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.

If they advance to NFC Championship

Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.

The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.

Money Where My Mouth Is

I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.

To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:

(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)

The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.

In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.

Week 16 Bets

I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).

Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.

NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.

Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.

The Niner Points in Life

Ahhhh, it's been a while, but for the first time in close to a decade, I know what it feels like to be a fan of a good football team.

The last time I was in this position, I had yet to reach legal drinking age (emphasis on legal).

The last time I was here, Terrell Owens was still on his first team (not attempting to join his 6th or 7th team) and was dominating his position like no other.

Since we last experienced playoff football, we have had the likes of Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Chris Weinke, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith leading our teams to mediocre seasons at best, and outright unwatchable seasons at their very worst.

Joe Montana and Steve Young took more talented dumps than these guys.

Playing Har-baugh

So with no radical changes to the 2010 team, why is this team sitting at 7-1 and already 5 games up in its division?

Look no further than the new coach for the dramatic change.

Harbaugh is doing things with the Niners that would make Criss Angel blush. He's turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback. Smith is still not a guy I'd bank on long-term (or even to lead us to championship game/Super Bowl appearances), but for this season, he has cut down on his mistakes and has actually led the Niners to several 4th quarter comebacks - all on the road (Bengals, Eagles, Lions - all talented/playoff-caliber teams).

In fact, the Niners are a fantastic 4-0 away from San Francisco, and we have yet to play any of our weak division on the road yet. With the disparity in the division based on the Niners record and the rest of the division, you'd say that we should win all of those games (5 division games left), but realistically, I expect 3-2 or 4-1 record, as upsets are not that uncommon.


Down The Road: New Expectations

Having said this, I feel like the Niners have over a 50/50 shot at getting a first-round bye this year. A 12-4 record wouldn't shock me with the remaining schedule, and I think the Giants and Saints/Falcons will end up with 11-5 records at best. This week's game against NYG will go a long way in determining their seeding.

I don't think they'll win more than a game in the playoffs, but the fact that we are talking about the playoffs is an amazing leap that I did not expect. I hope I'm wrong about this and we're talking about San Fran still playing in February - but for now, I'll enjoy this current run they're on and hope it continues into the winter months.

The fact that I am discussing going to San Fran some weekend in January with the g/f makes me happy for several reasons: (1) that I have a g/f I can make tentative plans with two months in advance and (2) the Niners being a playoff quality team.

I remain reserved about the Niners' chances, but for how way off I was about them entering this year, I can't really complain with what happens from here.

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 

Week 5	Week 6
NFL 2-5, -$132.40	NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40	MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220	Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60	YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139	Spreads: 8-8, -$34

Back to Business: How the NFL's Return Will Affect Non-NFL things

The great news has been shouted as loud as Paul Revere's "The British are coming" (X2) - the NFL is back!

For me, it means fantasy football season is back. It also means that I get to defend my first successful betting season (50-34, +$693) in my life. And I'll be able to get my first look at the Jim Harbaugh-led San Francisco 49ers. Will his confidence in Alex Smith be reciprocated by solid play from Smith? Something to look forward to.

Also, I have been asked to pitch in for a DirectTV package, so I will be able to watch my boys every week. When I was asked about this and thought about it for a second, I couldn't pass up on the chance to watch them week in, week out - no matter how depressing they may look at times.

For you, it probably means the same things - Sundays at the bar or at home watching your favorite team (if you're reading this, likely the Bears) with some good friends of yours, likely consuming tons of calories on adult beverages and cholesterol-filled goodies.

However, there are other people/groups who are lot happier than us not involved directly with football that are delighted to hear about the return of the nation's favorite sport.

Hotel chains

Imagine how much money would have been lost if the lockout continued and the season disappeared for hotels. From the plethora of fans who travel to see their teams to the NFL teams and their staffs themselves, the hotel industry was likely to lose millions for all the empty rooms that would come of this. This would have resulted in layoffs and cutbacks that our economy really doesn't need at this point.

Tourism industry

With hotels comes tourism. For those of us in Chicago who have walked the streets on a random afternoon, it is a common sight to see people from out of town in jerseys that match their team visiting the Windy City in some sport. Some of these people may have come to Chicago at some point in time, but there would have definitely been a hit to most city's tourism. Maybe except for Cleveland, but that's another story.

Bars & Restaurants

You think that bars would still be packed Sunday afternoons in the fall if the NFL wasn't around? Even moving some college football games to Sunday would have made it difficult to fill the void that the NFL brings in for bars. The NFL is a cash cow for many industries - with bars being one of the most prominent. The loss of revenue on Monday nights would also be affected - as I know that I'd be less likely to go out on a Monday night in the fall if football wasn't on.

(and most importantly)...Baseball Fans of Bad Teams

Before you think this is a shot at Cubs' fans, remember that the White Sox are often hopelessly hovering around 2nd or 3rd place around the time that the NFL starts, teasing us to the bitter end and then eventually getting eliminated with a week left in the season. I may not be able to speak for teams outside of our market, but I imagine the sentiment is the same as far as needing the NFL to come back to mask the woes of their ugly baseball team. It may be different in the New England, Arlington, Philadelphia & San Francisco areas, but many other cities who have football and baseball teams have fans that cannot wait to forget about the 2011 baseball season and cling onto the hopes of their NFL team this season.

There's probably other industries/groups I am missing, but those are the groups that I feel benefit the most from the NFL ending its lockout that aren't directly related to football.

In the meantime, free agent signings are about to clutter the bottom line and beginning pages of the sports section. Let the madness begin!

Initial prediction for the season: Packers repeat. I don't need to hear about the current free agents and where they go. Green Bay has a whole starting roster of guys coming back from injury. I believe the only way they lose in the playoffs (assuming they make it there) is if they get outcoached.

Your thoughts?

QB or not QB: The Cynical Views of a 49ers Fan

Not much since the Jeff Garcia era has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers - from the numerous coaching changes to the botched QB decisions. No matter how you dice it, as a #1 pick, Alex Smith has failed to become the franchise guy that any team who drafts a QB with the top selection should expect. Yet....for some reason, the Niners/Harbaugh want to bring the model of inconsistency back into the fold for next year. I guess it makes some sense, given the lack of practice time that any new QB, including Colin Kaepernick, would have due to the lockout.

On the bright side (and the only bright side) I can find about bringing Smith back is that he finally may have a competent offensive mind to work with. Harbaugh had a big hand in developing Andrew Luck into the future 2012 #1 pick (barring injury) and also putting Stanford football on the map in a very short amount of time, capping off his last season with the Cardinal in a very impressive romping of V-Tech.

With the drafting of a new QB, you'd think I'd be happier, given the impending end of the Alex Smith era and the hope of success with the young guy. However, Kaepernick enters the NFL on similar terms as Smith did: both men played on offenses in college that make for a difficult transition into the pro game. Smith played under the tutelage of Urban Meyer while Meyer was still an up-and-coming coach for Utah. Meyer emphasized the "spread offense", which usually uses 4-5 receiver sets to space out defenders and give the offense more room to run and pass. In college systems like this, the QB used is often quick and usually has an option to run or pass. Here are Smith's statistics in his junior year, after which he declared for the NFL draft:

• 32 TDs, 4 Ints in 317 attempts for 2952 yards, completing over two-thirds of his passes in the process
• 135 attempts for 631 yards (deceiving because in college, they count sacks as negative rushing yards), 10 TDs rushing

Comparably, Kaepernick just finished his college stint at Nevada playing in the Pistol formation, which is almost a merger of the shotgun and the I formation, except it's just 1 running back behind the QB as he stands in shotgun. Like Smith, Kaepernick's system emphasized the option as a big part of its offense, resulting in some well-rounded Smith-like stats for CK's senior year campaign:

• 22 TDs, 8 picks in 359 passes for 3022 yards, completing about 65% of his passes
• 173 attempts for 1206 yards (7 yards/carry) for 20 TDs

In each man's last seasons, both contributed exactly 42 TDs (roughly 3.5 per game), with Smith having the edge in passing efficiency and Kaepernick literally running away with the rushing title between the two. Both men had similar yardage and completion totals. Both men also took great advantage of the systems that allowed them to put up the stats that they did.

However, it remains to be seen whether Kaepernick will fall prey to the system QB problem that Smith had. Lining up under center is a lot different than in an option-based shotgun formation, which could never work in the NFL due to the speed of the game. I do think that both quarterbacks will benefit from having a former QB coaching them.

If neither can succeed with this guy as coach, then forget about it. Personally, the inevitable signing of Alex Smith is puzzling, but since it is inevitable, I'd like to see both the new coach and the motivation of a draft pick to light a fire under his ass to give Smith a decent chance at improvement.

Time will tell, and hopefully time will allow this to play out as scheduled. I wish whatever QB plays this year the best, and hopefully the best results in our first division championship since Mooch was coach.