As many of you have already read many times, I went to a Bears game for the second week in a row. Like the week before, I witnessed a pathetic Bears offense and eventual loss - combined losses to Houston & San Francisco by a 42-10 margin.
I promise to all Bears fans that I will not attend any more of their games this year, as I have witnessed 67% of their losses. Do I think they'll bounce back this week? Yes I do. Will I bet it? No I won't. Should I keep asking myself questions and then answering them? I think I should stop.
With only 12 games on Sunday and a dud of a game on Monday, there's not much on the slate that catches my eye. I'll likely be able to catch some/all of the Saints/49ers game, which I believe is the clear afternoon game of the day (Packers at Giants at night is the clear game of the day).
Thoughts on each game:
Oakland +8 at Cincy: Oakland fits the system here - blowout losses against the spread in their last three games & Cincy w/ blowout wins against the spread in their last two. Likely bet on Oakland, even though I picked Cincy in a couple of survivor pools.
Pitt -1.5 at Cle: I like Cleveland here. One of those 2-8 records that really doesn't tell the story on how competitive they've been this year. Probably won't bet it, but it'll likely be Cleveland or nothing here.
Buf +3 at Indy: This is the Fool's Gold Play of the week. Everyone loves Indy here, but they have no defense and I believe Buffalo will be able to move the ball well on the ground against them (Indy allows 4.7 yards/carry - 4th worst - while Spiller leads the league w/ 6.6 yards/carry). Indy is not as good as their 6-4 shows. Buffalo will be a bet
Denver -10.5 at KC: For me here, it's either KC +10.5 or no play. Divisional rivalry game - you can usually throw records out the window. KC sprung an upset last year against GB in a similar spot of the year - be careful backing Denver here.
Ten -4 at Jax: MC Hammer Game of the Week. As in, I can't touch this one on either end. No way can I lay points with Tennessee on the road, but no way I can bet on Jacksonville (again) at home, where they've lost each game by double digits.
Atl -1 at TB: Should be the best of the Noon time games. A Tampa win here could put them in good position for a playoff push for the rest of the year. No leans here.
Sea -3 at Mia: Mia fits the system of a team who hasn't covered in three straight. Likely to take them here. I don't think Seattle has earned the right to be road favorites yet.
Balt (pick'em) at SD: I already bet SD here. Great spot for them (or at least great spot to fade Baltimore). Ravens are in the middle of a Pittsburgh sandwich on their schedule and in the middle is a game thousands of miles away. Big let down spot here.
SF -1 at NO: My only worry here is Kaepernick having a rough go in his first road start in what may be the noisiest stadium in the league, but overall, I believe San Fran should be able to move the ball consistently and slow down NO enough to take this one. May bet San Fran. System play here in effect with NO winning three straight against the spread (which means fade them).
StL +1 at Ariz: Another MC Hammer Game. Arizona hasn't won since starting 4-0. I think they win here, but I sure as hell won't bet on it.
GB +2.5 at NYG: With public perception on the Giants being as low as its been this year since their opener against the Cowboys, this should be a good time to back them, especially after a bye week.
Car -2.5 at Phil: Another ugly game. Can't believe Carolina is a road favorite here, but find it hard to trust Philly. At all. No bet.
Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. Have a good weekend.
