The Ultimate Bolek NFL Preview - 2012 Edition

Mugshot of Marshawn Lynch after his DUI arrest

Has your favorite NFL player been convicted of a crime this offseason? If he hasn't, then he's not trying as hard as he should.

With 27 NFL players being cuffed for some type of offense in the past five months, there's a chance that you're a fan of one of these players. In the past couple weeks alone, Adrian Peterson, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch, among like 900 others, had some sort of DUI or altercation that seems to be an epidemic as the season approaches.

Aside from that, there were the usual free agent moves. Peyton joining the Mile High Club by heading to the Broncos. Like Kevin Kolb of last year, Matt Flynn cashed in on a couple good starts and signs with an NFC West team desperate for a quarterback. And despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants are somehow not the talk of New York, as some team who shares a stadium with them traded for a polarizing fullback quarterback that will surely add some drama to an already contentious locker room.

The questions you want to know will be answered below. For my Bears fans, what should you expect from this season? Will my Niners regress this year after a sterling 2011 season that saw them win their first division in almost a decade?

An amazing fact found in this article shows that history is against the Niners (and the Lions & Texans) when it comes to teams who rebounded from sub-.500 records one year to double digit wins the next. Out of the 29 teams who have done this in the past decade, 26 of them regressed to 9 or less wins in year 3. In fact, the average team in this situation loses 4 more games in year 3 than they did in year 2.

I've included my predictions along with what offshore sportsbook 5Dimes is projecting from each team.

Aside from the fact above about regression, if you're betting on totals in the NFL, it's a very profitable angle to bet on the Over for teams projected for less than 6 wins. Keep that in mind if you think that betting on Cleveland, Indianapolis & Jacksonville unders are a layup of a bet.

NFL Predictions

AFC East

Mr GQ will have no problem winning the AFC East

NE (Over/Under 12 wins) - prediction: over (13)
NYJ (Over/Under  8.5) - prediction: under (6)
Buff (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (10)
Mia (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: under (6)

(Predicted finish: NE 13-3, Buff 10-6, NYJ 6-10, Mia 6-10)


Thoughts: On average, there's about 2 or 3 teams every year that go from losing records to double digit wins. In my projection, I have Buffalo being one of those teams. They made a commitment on the defensive end, shoring up their passing rush by signing defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and focused on defense in the first round of the draft. I still don't think they'll be a match for New England, who should continue to be the darlings of the AFC East. I expect the Jets to finish below .500 - I just don't see how having a plan to use two quarterbacks consistently is not going to be a locker room distraction.


AFC North


Pitt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Balt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Cin (Over/Under 8) - prediction: under (7)
Cle (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Pitt 11-5, Balt 9-7, Cin 7-9, Cle 6-10)


Thoughts: If Polamalu & Big Ben stay healthy, I expect the Steelers to win back the AFC North from Baltimore, who lost Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs to a torn Achilles (currently rehabbing it, but likely to miss significant time at the very least). Baltimore should still be a playoff caliber team, but a dip in wins wouldn't surprise me. I expect Cincinnati to have a slight regression in Year 2 of the Andy Dalton era. I think Cleveland will be more competitive than normal, although for them, that still means only about 6 wins.


AFC South


Hou (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Ten (Over/Under 7) - prediction: push (7)
Jax (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: under (3)
Ind (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Hou 11-5, Ten 7-9, Indy 6-10, Jax 3-13)


Thoughts: Outside of the AFC East, this looks like the easiest division to project. Jacksonville & Indianapolis are clearly in rebuilding mode, with the Titans sandwiched in-between them and the Texans, who will likely win their second straight division title after not making the playoffs in their first nine years of existence. They won the division with relative ease last year, and that was without Matt Schaub down the stretch. I expect the Texans to take the next step and be a Super Bowl contender this year.


AFC West


SD (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Den (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: under (7)
KC (Over/Under 8) - prediction: over (10)
Oak (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)


(Predicted finish: KC 10-6, Oak 8-8, SD 7-9, Den 7-9)

Gonna be weird seeing Peyton in orange (and out of the playoffs)

Thoughts: This division has been one of the hardest for me to read and project, but I think the Chiefs will get back to the top of the division. They lost so many folks in the very beginning of 2011 to various ligament tears that they never really had a chance - they somehow rebounded to come close to winning the very weak AFC West. The defensive minded coach (Romeo Crennel) will make a better impression in his second time around as head coach. I don't trust the Chargers to suddenly start doing great under Norv Turner, whose naked pictures of the GM and owners of the team (presumably anyways) allow him to keep coaching the team. I don't think the Broncos have enough talent around Peyton, who himself is coming off a year layoff and his third neck surgery and is nearing NFL extinction. I'll probably come back to eat these words when Peyton throws for 40 TDs.




AFC Playoffs (1-6 seeds): NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buff, Balt




NFC East


Phil (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (12)
NYG (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (7)
Dal (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: over (9)
Wash (Over/Under 6.5) - prediction: over (7)


(Predicted Finish: Phil 12-4, Dal 9-7, NYG 7-9, Wash 7-9)


Thoughts: I'm drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid for the second year in a row. Unlike last year though, I feel like I'll be right this time around. I don't doubt their chances to win the division as long as Vick can stay healthy, which has always been a question for him in his career. I think the Giants will take a big step back (note how I didn't go with the pun of GIANT step back). Dallas will be on the fringe of the playoffs again, and Tony Romo will be to blame (as always). RGIII will bring some life to a Redskins franchise that hasn't been a perennial contender for the playoffs since the late 80s/early 90s.


NFC North


GB (Over/Under 12) - prediction: under (11)
Det (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (9)
Chi (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: over (11)
Min (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)

If I have anything to say, these two will be all smiles come January

(Predicted Finish: Chicago 11-5 (wins tiebreaker), Green Bay 11-5, Det 9-7, Min 4-12)


Thoughts: My Bears friends are probably going to blame me if they fail to live up to higher than normal expectations, but I believe they got better pieces than last year and should benefit from better health w/ Cutler and Forte (who with his new contract, hopefully will not suffer from Chris Johnsonitis), which is what cost them a chance at the playoffs down the stretch last year. Their defense is never something that needs questioning, as that has been Lovie's forte (pun somewhat intended). Green Bay's offense hid some of the flaws that their defense showed last year. The offense should still be its juggernaut self, but I believe that with the rest of the division (save Minnesota) is catching up with them, it will be difficult for them to get over 12 wins.


NFC South

Expect to see this shirt (or a version of it) worn all year in NO

New Orleans (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Atlanta (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Carolina (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (9)
Tampa (Over/Under 6) - prediction: push (6)


(Predicted Finish: New Orleans 11-5, Carolina 9-7, Atlanta 7-9, Tampa 6-10)


Thoughts: At first, I was on the bandwagon that New Orleans would be distracted this season by the bounty stuff and miss out on the playoffs. However, the more I thought about it and realized that New Orleans' home field is going to be even more crazy with their "us against the world" mentality that they have with their coach being suspended for the year, the more I thought to myself - I could easily see them go 7-1 or even 8-0 again at home, especially with the way Brees slings it. I expect Carolina to take a big step forward and Atlanta take a step back, which will result in Mike Smith being fired at the end of the year.


NFC West

San Fran (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Arizona (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)
Seattle (Over/Under 7) - prediction: under (5)
St. Louis (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)


(Predicted Finish: San Fran 9-7, Arizona 8-8, Seattle 5-11, St. Louis 4-12)

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Randy Moss making a big impact for the Niners

Thoughts: San Francisco benefited from an improbable +28 turnover ratio and great health last year (only 8 total games missed by defensive starters). The turnover rate will go down, but it's possible that the lack of defensive injuries will not. I found that the Niners' string of "luck" in the health dept is no fluke - between 2008-2010, the starters only missed 16 total games on defense: source. Even though with their signings on offense are pointing towards an improvement in production, I expect a regression for Alex Smith (17 TDs, 5 picks last year) which will negate some of the signings. Arizona finished the season out strong with John Skelton behind center, winning 7 of their last 9 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the Week 17 showdown between the Niners and the Cardinals is for the division title.

NFC Playoffs (1-6 Seeds): Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det




AFC Wild Card: Pitt over Balt, KC over Buff
NFC Wild Card: Chi over Det, GB over SF
AFC Divisionals: Hou over Pitt, NE over KC
NFC Divisionals:  Phil over GB, NO over Chi


AFC Championship: Hou over NE
NFC Championship: Phil over NO


Super Bowl: Phil over Hou


League MVP: Mike Vick (Phil)
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees (NO)
Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers (Chi)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (Indy)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Morris Claiborne (Dallas)

Thoughts: Out of these 12 playoff teams, I guarantee I miss on 6 of them, maybe more. I went with the rule of thumb that there's usually about 4 new division winners from the previous year (I got Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Chicago & Philly fitting that bill). After my blog earlier last month about teams with value, I think New Orleans may have tremendous value on winning the Super Bowl, especially since the Big Game is in their home stadium. Imagine the noise that the AFC squad would have to deal with. I may make a futures bet on the Saints before the season starts, because it will get lower if they make a strong push as they did last year). If I could take that blog back, I'd have them as my best value team.

I'm expecting Vick to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl title this year

Why the Eagles winning it all? I think I'm falling prey to how they closed and their overall level of talent at the skill positions. Maclin had medical issues that prevented him from being effective like he was in 2010. This prediction will probably flame out badly. Vick has problems staying healthy, but if he does, I think he will live up to his dumb comments (at least for one year) about the Eagles being a possible dynasty.

Why the Texans over Patriots in the AFC Championship? Lately it seems that the Patriots fall a step short and have one lackluster playoff game that does them in. I'm projecting that from them in this game, as the Texans will pull off an upset and make it to the Super Bowl.

Strange as it sounds, I still may opt to bet for the Saints to win it all instead of the Eagles.

Odds are, there will be a few teams that catch everyone off-guard. I only picked 4 new teams to make the playoffs compared to last year - usually it changes by 6-7 teams. So if I didn't pick your team to make it there, you have some hope.

Enjoy your NFL seasons, and I'm sure I'll be back throughout the year to critique or praise my predictions.