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| Bart Scott can't wait for the NFL season to start, and neither can I. Hence, NFL Predictions 5 weeks in advance. |
There's still trades and signings to be made, but my gut feelings for NFL predictions are coming clearer to me. I'm gonna use an offshoot of Bookmaker's new site for odds reference purposes. With each team, I will pick whether I project over/under for the total listed on Bookmaker.
Note: I am projecting team's win totals, but did not add up the wins to see if they add up to the proper amount of games
AFC East
It looks to be a two-horse race between New England (-175) & the Jets (+130). The Bills (20/1) and Dolphins (10/1) are popular bets if you are looking to piss money down the drain. I would have given the nod to the Jets here if they were able to sign Asomugha, but they are essentially the same team as last year, minus Brad Smith (who will be missed for his special teams contributions) & plus Plaxico (who will help in the red zone regardless of his layoff). The pick here is New England.
New England 11.5 (over - 13); NYJ 10 (push); Miami 8 (under - 7); Buffalo 5.5 (over - 6)
AFC North
Another two-horse race - with Baltimore (-160) edging Pittsburgh (+115) as the favorite, according to the site. Cincy (25/1) & Cleveland (10/1) are long-shots, and for good reason. I'll take the defending champs of the division (Pitt) to repeat, with Balt once again getting the wild card.
Pittsburgh 10.5 (over - 12); Balt 10.5 (under 10); Cleveland 6.5 (over -7); Cincy 5.5 (under - 5)
AFC South
According to oddsmakers, seems like the theme of the AFC so far is 2 teams with a real chance in each division. Every year, there's one division that has a team that surprises the league and wins a division. My first mild surprise in this regard is the Houston Texans (+175) over the Colts (-140). The moves of getting Wade Philips as defensive coordinator and Jonathan Joseph (a young solid cornerback) will help Mario Williams on the defensive end of the ball- which was the only thing that was holding them back from a playoff run last year. Their offense should continue to shine behind Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson. The Colts aren't the same team they were a few years ago, when they made their run to the Super Bowl. I think Manning is gonna miss some games with the neck injury this year, and they cannot afford him to be out in the slightest. His current backup? Curtis Painter (28 career attempts in 3 years).
Houston 8.5 (over -11); Indy 10 - (under - 9); Tennessee 7 (under - 6); Jacksonville 6.5 (Under - 5)
AFC West
Last year, this was one of the division winners that caught Vegas offguard, with the Chiefs taking the division from perennial power San Diego. I think the Chiefs overachieved last year and will come back down. I expect the Chargers at -225 (being the first team in modern football history to miss the playoffs despite top yardage rankings in offense and defense) to rebound and retake the division easily. Their special teams cannot be as bad as they were last year - their Achilles Heel last year.
San Diego 10 (over - 12); Kansas City 8 - (under - 7); Denver 5.5 (over - 7); Oakland 7 (under - 4).
NFC East
I'm gonna take the bait and make the Eagles (-150) as my division pick, but I think Dallas at +280 has the best value, given the way they closed the year with Garrett as coach. They still got some money to spend after being spurned by Asomugha - who went to their rivals in the city of Brotherly Hate. There aren't too much. No way anyone (even Mike Shanahan) could reasonably make a case for Washington (25/1); otherwise, I could see anyone, including the Giants (+225), taking the division.
Phil 10.5 (over -11); NYG 9.5 (over - 10); Dallas 9 (push); Washington 6 (under - 4)
NFC North
With the Packers returning about a starting lineup's worth of starters from their 2010 injured reserved list, their depth is unparalleled in the league. The Bears won the division despite a terrible pre-season but ultimately fell short in the NFC Championship. I think they over-achieved last year, mainly thanks to their dynamic defense - the staple of any Bears team that has success. I think the Packers take the division. And I'll go against the grain here and say that the Lions under-achieve compared to how everyone is perceiving them.
GB 11.5 (Over - 12); Chi 8.5 (Under - 7); Detroit 8 (under - 7); Minnesota 7.5 (under - 6)
NFC South
Atlanta (+110) & New Orleans (-110) appear to be the front-runners again this year, with each making significant moves in the offseason. Atlanta's main transaction was to add to their offense by drafting Julio Jones, a stud from Alabama, and in the process trading about half of their draft. This deal reminded many of the deal the Saints made for Ricky Williams. While it should help their offense, I think the Saints will retake the division. They just signed San Fran's second best defensive player from last year (Franklin) to the D-Line and drafted Jordan out of Cal. These moves should help bolster a run defense that was about middle-of-the-pack. Tampa (+480), under the rising star of Josh Freeman, probably have the best odds of any team that I think has a reasonable chance at a division title.
NO 10 (Over - 11); Atlanta 10 (Push); Tampa 8 (Over - 9); Carolina 4.5 (Over - 6)
NFC West
Last and definitely least, here we are to the NFC Worst, the first division winner to ever sport a losing record. Never mind that Seattle (7-9 last year) upset New Orleans - doesn't erase the fact that this was the worst division in the history of any sport. San Fran (-130) is once again the preseason favorite, although not as highly hyped as last year, where just about every publication had them as the division winner. Again, until I see Alex Smith perform well consistently, I will find this division favorite stuff hard to believe - even in this division. The loss of Franklin to the D-Line will hurt the Niners more than most free agent losses to any team this year. I think the Rams (+200) will pull off the division victory. Bradford nearly did the impossible last year, having the Rams alive for the division crown going into the final week. This year, they will have it wrapped up by week 16.
StL 7.5 (Over - 9); San Fran 8 (Under - 7); Arizona 7 (Under - 6); Seattle 6 (Under - 4)
(I counted 13 overs, 16 unders and 3 pushes - so probably under-projected the league as a whole in terms of wins)
So to recap, division winners:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego
NFC: Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, St. Louis
Wild Cards:
AFC: Baltimore, NYJ
NFC: Atlanta, NYG
AFC Championship: San Diego over New England
NFC Championship: Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl: Green Bay over SD
Of course, I will be way off on this. There will likely be at least one team around 4 or 5/1 that sneaks up on everyone and wins their division (best chance of that is with Tampa). I will definitely revisit this in 6 months to see how wrong I was, just as I have analyzed my baseball predictions.
Enjoy the preseason, and let's enjoy the first of at least a decade's worth of NFL seasons of labor peace.
