The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs

From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.

Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.

But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.

So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:

• Those who have already won a Super Bowl
• Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
• Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
• Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title

If we break it down like this, here's how it would look, using the active list of quarterbacks. Note that in cases where the QB may not be known, I am either taking an educated guess as to who the starter will be or counting the QBs in the battle as one QB:

(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs

• Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco
  
  Notes: Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).
  
  It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.

(2) Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win (no particular order) - 6 QBs

• Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
  
  Notes: You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.
  
  The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.

(3) Those who have less talent but could win it with the right cast of characters (no particular order) - 8 QBs

•  Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
  
  Notes: The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.
  
  Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.
  
  Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.
  
  Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.
  
  Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.
  
  Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.
  
  Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).
  
  Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.
  
  Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 (4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs

• Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
  
  Notes: Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.
  
  Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.

So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.

Chapter 14 Fit Happens: Post-Contest Interview (Chris)

I've delayed a little on the release of these, still waiting for one member to submit the questionnaire (inserted passive-aggressive jab right there). Instead of waiting any longer, I will release the question/answers from everyone. 

First, starting with the runner-up Chris, who lost 28.6 pounds (11.56% of his weight) in the six-month contest. He shares his thoughts on the contest and what he is aiming to accomplish with long-term fitness goals.

1. What are your overall impressions of Fit Happens? Enjoyed it.  I accomplished exactly what I wanted and this was my motivation in part.  It helped to have some support/competition along the way.

2. What have you changed about your exercise regimen and/or diet during the contest? My exercise regimen was increased during this competition.  I barely missed a day up until about a month ago when I started tailing off.  I have since regained that steam and have been working out just about daily.  As far as diet, I still eat basically the same stuff.  I am much more hesitant to eat boatloads of things though.  I am better at portion control (although I definitely suffer lapses).  That is what I aim to continue to work on.

3. What challenges were the toughest during the past six months? I can't think of anything that was really toughest.  I guess maintaining the rigorous exercise routine was tough, but I generally enjoyed it.  The toughest part was probably resisting the urge to overeat.  I have been recalling moments where I had the willpower to do so and it is rewarding in its own.

4. Did you reach the goals you set forth at the beginning? I have surpassed my original goal and am teetering on the edge of my secondary goal of 215. 

5. How much did being in the contest motivate you to lose weight? Could you have done it w/o the contest? I probably could have done this without the contest, but it was nice to experience it with friends and have your own cheering(jeering) section.  That extra motivation made it easier, plus sharing an experience is always better than going at it alone.

6. Will you continue your weight loss journey? I hope so.  I am going to attempt to make my eating habits a lifelong deal.  As far as working out, I don't anticipate I will slow down all that much, so hopefully I will continue to slim down, even if it is at a much slower pace.

7. How will you keep yourself motivated with the contest ending? My motivation has been to continue to live healthy.  The contest was all but over about halfway through, so I have conceded that much.

8. Did anything or anyone surprise you during this contest? How so? Cannot believe B-Bo was able to drop so much weight.  Especially since he was the lightest at the start.  I guess he had a lot less of a muscular base than anticipated.

9. How much more weight do you want or need to lose to get to your ideal weight? I don't know that I really have an ideal weight at this time.  I guess long term, it would be cool to drop below 200.

10. Should we keep tabs on each other as the months pass to keep each other motivated? If so, do you think we will? Absolutely.  One of my heroes, Adam Carolla, is an advocate of public shaming as a motivator.  If any of us start to slip, I think a public shaming is in store.  On a serious note, yes - it is good to keep tabs.  Again, we have a shared experience and can relate to one another.  It should continue on that way with encouragement and the occasional shaming.