A Better Bettor: #BolekBestBets Returns! NFL Week 5

Sometimes you need a period of time to clear your head after a bad stretch of time in life or a major event that crushes you emotionally. My time to myself wasn't relating to a life-or-death topic, but it did require me to take a step back.

Of course, if you read last week, you'd know I'm referencing my gambling. I had to take a week away from it to reflect on how bad I did and what I can do to become a better bettor.

In my bad run, one thing I am proud of is that I did not "chase" (or bet bigger to "chase" the losses I had in the week) - otherwise, my bad run a few weeks ago would have been an ugly site. The double down theory is not a good one when you lose 21 of 26 bets in a week.

In my week off, I realized several things

(1) I need to become more disciplined. This means not always needing to bet something every day. This is  typically a losing strategy for an inexperienced gambler who needs to create action every day. If you can find a good line, bet it. If you can't, lay off.

(2) Less bets might be better. Sometimes, I've been making bets on lines that I somewhat like when I should be focusing on lines that I really like or love. Being more selective should help me out.

(3) I don't need bets to enjoy NFL. Actually, I don't need fantasy football either, but I know that's not leaving my life anytime soon, so why fight it? Watching Week 4 of the NFL without a single wager was refreshing - I was actually able to enjoy the games on their own merit as opposed to rooting for particular outcomes. Even though I'm going back to wagering on some games, it makes me happy to say that I know I don't need gambling (or fantasy football) to enjoy NFL.

Note: Even though I may be down in my lifetime gambling, in the past couple years, I have made a concerted effort to become a better gambler and make it a very small part of my yearly income)

Without further ado, here's some lines that stick out this weekend and the games I'll be betting.

Balt  at Kansas City +6 (Fools Gold Pick) - This game has Fool's Gold written all over it. If you look at KC's numbers, they have outgained their opponents in all four games. Their 1-3 record is more the result of a -13 (yes, -13) turnover differential. That's one of those stats that tends to even out at some point. I think KC will pull off the upset despite John Harbaugh's spotless record against the spread after an extended rest in his short coaching career. KC has a desperation feel to it too. I'll be betting this on Sunday.

StL +2 vs. Arizona - Game tonight. Just bet it. So far, NFC West teams are 8-0 (7-1 if you count the Seahawks "win" as a loss vs the Packers) at home this year. Cardinals escaped with a win last week to remain unbeaten, but the travel on a short week usually favors the home team, who didn't have to go anywhere Sunday night.

Cle +8.5 at NYG - I should have bet this when it opened at +10, but I was still in hiatus phase. I may lay off, but I think Cleveland is better than their 0-4 record shows. They impressed against Baltimore last week, with the game almost going into overtime had they completed a pass with no time left. Plus, NYG is coming off a tough divisional game and doesn't usually cover big spreads at home.

SF -9.5 vs. Buff - I'm playing emotional factor here as well. Buffalo has to feel decimated after feeling like they had the division lead and a 2-game cushion on the Patriots at the tip of their fingers. Dating back to last year, San Fran has won 9 of its last 10 home games (only loss was to NYG), with covers in all of the straight up victories. I look for San Fran to romp on Sunday.

Lines I'm looking at/considering: NO -4, Den +6

NCAA Week 6

Northwestern +2.5, Purdue +3, Ariz +9.5

Have a good day and good luck with your teams/bets this week.

MLB - A Look Back (Preseason Predictions) & A Look Forward (Playoff Preview)

Note: I wrote most of this on Saturday (Sept 29th) under the notion that the White Sox fade would continue (it did), but I did not expect the Athletics to steal the division away from the Rangers, so my predictions are edited as such.

Please feel free to offer your own post-season predictions. Enjoy.

Good day to you all. I hope you enjoyed the end of the baseball season as much as I did - except for the White Sox not making the playoffs part. For a team that was projected to win about 75 games, they held their own most of the season, but the Tigers' last season surge timed out perfectly with the White Sox Swoon.

Before breaking down the playoffs, I'd like to see how well my projections from late February ended up turning out.

Here's a look at it, just so you have proof: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2012/02/were-talkin-baseball-2012-mlb-preview.html


PLAYOFFS?!?
What went right: Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals
What went wrong: Marlins, Phillies, Angels, Rays
Who replaced the wrong: Braves, Reds, A's, Orioles

Notes: I had the Nats as a Wild Card and Cardinals as a division champion - but they both made the playoffs, so I'm happy to get it somewhat right. The Nationals surprised even the most optimistic of people on what they did this year. Question is - will the shutting down of Strasburg hurt them in the playoffs? Short series requires good pitching - one less great pitcher has to diminish their chances of winning it all.  I'd love to see the Reds advance to the World Series (I made a bet in early August for them to win it all at 10/1 odds), but I wonder if they have enough consistent arms to face the Giants, who have developed into a well-rounded team who have somehow gotten better without Mr. Testosterone (Melky Cabrera).

Can you believe that during the season, the Athletics were as high as 100/1 just to win their division? This was at the beginning of July when the Athletics were a season-high 13 games back from Texas. At that time, Oakland was 37-42 - they would go on to close the season on a 57-26 run to overtake the Rangers in the AL West. I like this team, but I don't like their draw (vs. Detroit). I see Detroit taking the series in 4.

Miguel Cabrera: From triple the legal limit (maybe not that high) to Triple Crown

The Tigers woke up in September after being out of first for pretty much the whole year. I have my money on the Rangers and A's to win the World Series (among 5 teams I bet - others include the Reds, Phillies and D-Backs), so I'm obviously rooting for one of them to make it there and win it all. However, I have the Tigers pegged as my AL favorites now. Getting two starts from Verlander (should the series go long), arguably the best starting pitcher remaining in the playoffs, with the lineup they have, I think they'll be able to overtake the Rangers this year and advance to the playoffs.

OVER/UNDERS (Total projected wins & my predictions)

How I did: 17-13

My best division was the NL West, which I was able to project 4 out of 5 teams totals correctly (missing on the Padres, who I had going under their projected total of 73.5). I also did well with the AL West, missing only on the Mariners.

I did below average with projecting the AL Central team's over/unders (I got the White Sox over & Twins under right).

I didn't guess any of the 30 teams exact records, but I was within 3 wins on ten separate teams.

The teams I did the worst predictions for: Baltimore 65 wins (won 93, "only" 28 wins off), Miami 92 wins (won 69 - 23 off), Oakland 74 wins (they won 94), Boston 87 wins (they won 69) and Cincy 80 wins (won 97). I find it funny that I have World Series bets alive with two of these teams


Individual Predictions:

What went right: Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP; David Price for AL Cy Young
What went wrong: Hanley for NL MVP; Halladay for NL Cy; Stanton for NL HR leader; Jose Bautista (in the Feb preview, I put Jose Cabrera, so perhaps I should get half credit for forgetting his name like a dumbass)

Notes: These votes won't be known till next month, but I feel good about Cabrera's chances of winning the MVP - he'd be the second Tiger in a row to win the MVP (Verlander). Likewise, Price is among a few AL pitchers who should be considered for the Cy (Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver - hell, Verlander with a "down" year compared to 2011 should also be considered).

When I went all-in with the Marlins, I set myself up for failure when thinking Hanley might win MVP this year. Even when healthy this year, Halladay wasn't Cy Young material. Stanton did finish top-5 in the NL in home runs, but finished way behind Ryan Braun. Jose Bautista (or Jose Cabrera as I called him in Feb) was doing well before getting hurt in July (averaging a HR every 15/16 at bats). He may have had a chance to win it. Oh well. I guess the Hanley & Roy predictions were the only really bad ones.

2012 Playoff Predictions (Version 3.0):

AL Wild Card (one game playoff): Rangers over O's (as long as it's not a one-run game or goes into extras)
NL Wild Card (one game playoff): Braves over Cards (Kris Medlen doesn't lose)

AL Divisional Round: Tigers over A's (I hope I'm wrong here); Rangers over Yanks
NL Divisional Round: Giants over Reds (I hope I'm wrong here too); Braves over Nationals

ALCS: Tigers over Rangers (initial prediction: Yankees over Tigers)
NLCS: Giants over Braves (initial prediction: Marlins over Giants)

World Series: Tigers over Giants (initial prediction: Marlins over Yankees)


Who I have left for World Series bets placed in-season (Rangers - 100 to win 450; A's - 30 to win 1200; Reds - 50 to win 500)