If you're a gambler and like most people I know who gamble, you usually like to bet favorites at a high rate. If you're doing that this year, you're doing yourself wrong. Way wrong.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
Showing posts with label underdogs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label underdogs. Show all posts
11/23/2011
The Views from Vegas: Observations Finally Put to Words After Vegas VI
Another Vegas trip is in the books. Another couple hundred dollars down the drain - and I loved every minute of it.
From Jen making her first sports bets, including one on her own, to the delicious food and buffets we had, I enjoyed Vegas as I always do.
I've always had these observations and thoughts before about Vegas, but haven't put them into words until now. Here goes nothing:
(1.) Everyone at the sports book bets the favorites. I pointed this out to Jen, and even she started to notice this as well. Out of my 6 bets, 5 of them were on underdogs - funny enough, the only favorite I bet was my boys in San Fran laying 10 points, which they held on to cover. So it helped that I noticed it most in this scenario. The reason why Vegas wins so much money every year is that they set lines at such a consistent and balanced rate of favorites and underdogs covering spreads.
According to Covers.com, favorites are 77-76-7 this season against the spread. Also, home teams are 76-77-7 against the spread. Even my theory on betting against road favorites has a similar record around 50% (25-24-2). Most years, this number hovers around 50%, and since people need to win around 52-53% to break even if they bet the same each game (i.e. flat bet), Vegas wins.
I saw a lot of people rooting on the favorites, rooting every single score and first down for the favorites. A pair of guys next to me - sounded New Yorkish based on their accents - were rooting on one of their pools in which they went perfect in the first set of games for a Vegas contest in picking teams straight up. All he needed was Atlanta, Chicago, San Fran and St. Louis to come in to end the afternoon games perfect (all favorites). The first set of games featured only one team (Oakland) that was considered an underdog by Vegas standards. I'm just guessing, but with the lack of upsets there were at that point, a perfect record is probably shared by about 100 people.
Anyways, what was I getting at? Oh yeah, Vegas rules. At both setting lines and providing a good time.
(2.) Vegas is exactly like how Chappelle Show depicts "The Internet".
In case you are not familiar with this skit, here it is:
This is exactly how Vegas is allllllll the time. From left to right, up the escalators and down, you get hounded and raped by people trying to sell something. They get right in your face, trying to sell you on some show or strip club. You can't avoid them, even when you're in the hotel you're staying at and approaching the elevator.
This is probably the most annoying feature of Vegas. I understand most of Vegas is tourists and you need to find a way to sell your product - and often face-to-face is the best way to do it. I just wish I could go 5 feet without a piece of paper being thrown in my face about some club I will never go to.
(3.) People don't know how to walk. A common occurrence in Vegas goes as such. Person A is with Person B about 30 feet away from me. One of them stops, trying to figure out where they want to go next. One of them points. They stand there for another second or two. Then as we get to within a foot of them, they decide where they want to go and either cut us off or walk deathly slow in front of us.
Lord knows I have a city walk that I can't get rid of. I got yelled at a few times for walking too fast, but I had to tell her I can't help it...it's just the way I walk. But for as fast as I walk, there are some people who walk twice as slow as the national average of walkers*. These people all go to Vegas.
*National Average is about 4 miles per hour. No need to look it up.
(4.) If you ask someone if they've ever been to Vegas and they answer, "Not since I was a kid," they've never been to Vegas. For anyone who has ever been to Vegas, you know this to be the ultimate truth. When you're a teenager, the only things you can really experience in Vegas involve meals and shows of the PG-13 kind or weaker. Not only that, but you're likely with your parents or someone else in a position of authority. And what fun is that in Vegas? You need to be able to gamble a little and imbibe on some adult beverages to enjoy the true Vegas. Sure, you can get away with not gambling and not drinking while you're in Vegas, but if you're gonna do that, why not just go somewhere closer and more local?
This brings me to my next point....
(5.) When (or If) I have kids, I will NEVER bring them to Vegas. I can't stress this enough. I saw a bunch of people with their kids at the Bellagio buffet (or The Buffet as they call it)* and also walking the strip. I can't think of the many reasons it is wrong to bring kids to Vegas, but I'll attempt to.
(a) Not old enough to appreciate Vegas - See Point 4 above
(b) It's Sin City for a reason. Do you really want your kids exposed to those folks who are hawking the strip club cards and others who are so drunk they can't even spell their own names**?
(c) They take away from your fun. What adult really wants to have a PG-rated Vegas trip? If I can't gamble, go to the sports book and enjoy a few beverages, then it's not Vegas to me.
I'm sure there's more that I'm forgetting, but I think I made my point. If you bring your kids to Vegas and have fun nonetheless (and aren't BSing me because you think your spouse reads this blog)***, please tell me to disprove my point.
Any who, these are just some things I've thought of. Any frequent visitors of Vegas, please feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.
*The Ohio State University is shameful in its use of "The". Contrarily, The Buffet is being modest.
**Just guessing. I've never been this drunk, but in Vegas, people are dumb enough to get this drunk
***Awfully full of myself to think that married couples read this crap, but figured I'd insert this nonetheless.
Vegas Results:
NFL bets: 3-3 record, -$105
Roulette: 2 sessions, -$150
Horse bets: 2 horses bet, 2 losses: -$40
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving
Detroit +6, Mia/Dal Over 45, Balt/SF Under 40
From Jen making her first sports bets, including one on her own, to the delicious food and buffets we had, I enjoyed Vegas as I always do.
I've always had these observations and thoughts before about Vegas, but haven't put them into words until now. Here goes nothing:
(1.) Everyone at the sports book bets the favorites. I pointed this out to Jen, and even she started to notice this as well. Out of my 6 bets, 5 of them were on underdogs - funny enough, the only favorite I bet was my boys in San Fran laying 10 points, which they held on to cover. So it helped that I noticed it most in this scenario. The reason why Vegas wins so much money every year is that they set lines at such a consistent and balanced rate of favorites and underdogs covering spreads.
 |
| One of my 6 bets (and my largest winner), a bet that was unpopular with Public folks that like to bet on the favorites. |
According to Covers.com, favorites are 77-76-7 this season against the spread. Also, home teams are 76-77-7 against the spread. Even my theory on betting against road favorites has a similar record around 50% (25-24-2). Most years, this number hovers around 50%, and since people need to win around 52-53% to break even if they bet the same each game (i.e. flat bet), Vegas wins.
I saw a lot of people rooting on the favorites, rooting every single score and first down for the favorites. A pair of guys next to me - sounded New Yorkish based on their accents - were rooting on one of their pools in which they went perfect in the first set of games for a Vegas contest in picking teams straight up. All he needed was Atlanta, Chicago, San Fran and St. Louis to come in to end the afternoon games perfect (all favorites). The first set of games featured only one team (Oakland) that was considered an underdog by Vegas standards. I'm just guessing, but with the lack of upsets there were at that point, a perfect record is probably shared by about 100 people.
Anyways, what was I getting at? Oh yeah, Vegas rules. At both setting lines and providing a good time.
(2.) Vegas is exactly like how Chappelle Show depicts "The Internet".
In case you are not familiar with this skit, here it is:
This is exactly how Vegas is allllllll the time. From left to right, up the escalators and down, you get hounded and raped by people trying to sell something. They get right in your face, trying to sell you on some show or strip club. You can't avoid them, even when you're in the hotel you're staying at and approaching the elevator.
This is probably the most annoying feature of Vegas. I understand most of Vegas is tourists and you need to find a way to sell your product - and often face-to-face is the best way to do it. I just wish I could go 5 feet without a piece of paper being thrown in my face about some club I will never go to.
(3.) People don't know how to walk. A common occurrence in Vegas goes as such. Person A is with Person B about 30 feet away from me. One of them stops, trying to figure out where they want to go next. One of them points. They stand there for another second or two. Then as we get to within a foot of them, they decide where they want to go and either cut us off or walk deathly slow in front of us.
Lord knows I have a city walk that I can't get rid of. I got yelled at a few times for walking too fast, but I had to tell her I can't help it...it's just the way I walk. But for as fast as I walk, there are some people who walk twice as slow as the national average of walkers*. These people all go to Vegas.
*National Average is about 4 miles per hour. No need to look it up.
(4.) If you ask someone if they've ever been to Vegas and they answer, "Not since I was a kid," they've never been to Vegas. For anyone who has ever been to Vegas, you know this to be the ultimate truth. When you're a teenager, the only things you can really experience in Vegas involve meals and shows of the PG-13 kind or weaker. Not only that, but you're likely with your parents or someone else in a position of authority. And what fun is that in Vegas? You need to be able to gamble a little and imbibe on some adult beverages to enjoy the true Vegas. Sure, you can get away with not gambling and not drinking while you're in Vegas, but if you're gonna do that, why not just go somewhere closer and more local?
This brings me to my next point....
(5.) When (or If) I have kids, I will NEVER bring them to Vegas. I can't stress this enough. I saw a bunch of people with their kids at the Bellagio buffet (or The Buffet as they call it)* and also walking the strip. I can't think of the many reasons it is wrong to bring kids to Vegas, but I'll attempt to.
(a) Not old enough to appreciate Vegas - See Point 4 above
(b) It's Sin City for a reason. Do you really want your kids exposed to those folks who are hawking the strip club cards and others who are so drunk they can't even spell their own names**?
(c) They take away from your fun. What adult really wants to have a PG-rated Vegas trip? If I can't gamble, go to the sports book and enjoy a few beverages, then it's not Vegas to me.
I'm sure there's more that I'm forgetting, but I think I made my point. If you bring your kids to Vegas and have fun nonetheless (and aren't BSing me because you think your spouse reads this blog)***, please tell me to disprove my point.
Any who, these are just some things I've thought of. Any frequent visitors of Vegas, please feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.
*The Ohio State University is shameful in its use of "The". Contrarily, The Buffet is being modest.
**Just guessing. I've never been this drunk, but in Vegas, people are dumb enough to get this drunk
***Awfully full of myself to think that married couples read this crap, but figured I'd insert this nonetheless.
Vegas Results:
NFL bets: 3-3 record, -$105
Roulette: 2 sessions, -$150
Horse bets: 2 horses bet, 2 losses: -$40
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving
Detroit +6, Mia/Dal Over 45, Balt/SF Under 40
10/03/2010
'Dogs finally have their day with Vick
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| Just picture this as an Eagles jersey and that's what happened today |
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