2/01/2013

Fit Happens Chapter 2: A Healthy Competition

Month 1 of 2013 brought some true change to this country. No, this isn't the political type of change or the even more devalued change in our pockets after buying a candy bar. This was something bigger. Or should I say, a bunch of someone's bigger.

Weighing in at a combined 1015.1 pounds, the quartet in the 2013 Fit Happens Challenge had a lot of extra baggage to remove to start the new year. Better choices had to start being made: cutting out the cheeseburgers for something more healthy, curbing/eliminating the amount of fast food eaten, the switch from Diet Cokes to water. These are just some of the ways the four of us approached the weight loss challenge.

How It Started...

I must say that I am starting to feel the energy I had just before I stopped working out in July 2010, when the combination of getting a job where I worked from home and going to night class three times a week in the middle of the week caused me to curb my visits to the gym.

At my peak between 2008 and 2010, I would be going to the gym 5 times a week regularly, going from 220 pounds at the time of my gym membership start to about 175 at its lowest over the 2 years at the gym. When my work/school schedule changed, so did my gym habits. 5 times a week turned into twice a week. Twice a week turned into twice a month. Pretty soon, I just gave up going to the gym, and my body responded appropriately.

At the end of 2012, I was tagged on an email with a couple of friends and their friend, all of whom had discussed starting up a weight loss contest that would present motivation for the four of us to get trimmer heading into 2013. In addition to prizes given for monthly winners and the overall winner, there are also parameters in place where everyone in the contest will have to stay motivated, no matter the difference in % of weight lost.

While we all seem to be in the clear of the most dangerous of those motivating factors (anyone who loses less than 2% of their original body weight will have to wear a dress in public), there is also the threshold of getting at least 7.5% weight lost or risking the loss of your gamer tag for a year (or changing of a FB profile picture for a month).

Luckily for us, we all started out the month strong...

Userlbs%
Dave-11.8 lbs-4.09%
Hippo-11.4 lbs-4.62%
LionEsquire-13.2 lbs-5.41%
B-Bo Knows Weight Loss-13.0 lbs-5.52%

One Month In...

You might have an idea what my name in the contest is. Luckily I lived up to my name, reaching the end of the month in first place with 5.52% of my weight lost, edging out my nearest competition by 0.11%.

The 13 pounds lost in a month has to be a record for me. Which is surprising, because I don't think my eating habits have dramatically improved during this month.

Well, I should say what I choose to eat hasn't changed. I've definitely been eating/snacking less than before. But for the most part, my diet hasn't changed. I have cut back dramatically on alcohol and my Diet Cokes, opting for some agua instead. I'd say the conversion to a near-water beverage diet has helped a lot, although I still had a couple of weekend nights where I imbibed on a few too many.

The Next Month

Here are a few things I am expecting from Month 2 of the contest
  1. The weight loss will be tougher. From my experiences working out 5 years ago, I know that the dramatic weight loss will likely tail off in month 2. This is why I've set a reasonable goal of 6-8 pounds loss for February. It won't be for lack of trying - I'm hoping to prove myself wrong and get past that mark, but not counting on it.
  2. I expect to continue to get more energy the more I work out. I've been going to the gym about 3-4 times a week this year so far. The workouts, focused moreso on cardio activities, have increased in length and intensity since the beginning of the year. The first week or so was spent on the treadmill, walking at about a 3.5/4 mph pace. In the past two weeks, I've been starting to jog on the treadmill, around a 5/5.5 mph pace. The workouts aren't always as long, but I end up losing way more calories with the jogs.  I am looking to get back to running around a 6mph pace like I was able to at the same point of my weight loss in 2008.
  3. My diet will improve. It may not improve dramatically, but cutting out soda and alcohol (save for the Super Bowl) for the entire month of February will have to help somewhat. In fact, I meant to ask if anyone wanted to join me on this No Booze Till March campaign. And no, my non-drinking friends don't need to be smartasses and agree to go on this campaign with me - I'm looking for my alcohol-soaked friends to hop on the Sober Train, which I think is more reliable than the CTA/Metra.
  4. I don't expect to win the weight loss title again. But that doesn't mean I won't aim for a repeat. I figure if I win it a second month in a row, I must be doing something right and will be in much better shape when the month of February comes to a close.
When this contest first started, I must say I was slightly motivated by winning it. But then I realized that this is more than just a contest to win by losing weight. This is about making better decisions, whether it be to lay off fatty snacks and eating fruit instead or going downstairs to the gym to workout instead of sitting on the couch watching 1990s sitcoms and crappy college basketball games throughout the early evening.

I must say that win or lose, this contest is exactly what I needed to start making some better decisions. Thank you to Chris, Nick and Dave for the invite in what promises to be a healthy competition.


Combined Weight to Start January: 1015.1 pounds
Combined Weight to End January: 965.7 pounds
Weight loss total - 49.4 pounds (4.9% lost)

The History of the Super Bowl MVP: Facts & Thoughts for This Year

A couple days away from Super Bowl XLVII (47 for us non-Romans). Anyone who knows me knows that I am super-psyched about this game being a 49ers fan.

And like almost every Super Bowl in the past 6-7 years, I'm a gambling man. There's so many freaking things you can bet on (more on this in a blog coming up later this week before the game). One of the things you can bet on is who will win the Super Bowl MVP.

This award favors the quarterback, as 25 of 47 winners (there was one Super Bowl w/ a co-MVP) lined up behind center to win the award. The past three Super Bowl winners had a QB win the award.

So naturally, the two favorites to win the award are both QBs (Colin Kaepernick is +140 and Joe Flacco is +250). This means for every 10 dollars you bet on Kaepernick, you'd profit $14, with a similar sized wager on Flacco netting you 25 bucks.

These are the safest bets to make, but who wants to be safe, especially when it comes to gambling? I delved into the history of the Super Bowl MVP and what the average QB who won the award did to win it. I also wanted to see what it took for a non-QB to win the award. The defensive winners (8 in total) were hard to find definitive stats for, so I wanted to focus more on the running backs and wide receivers who stole the honors from the quarterbacks.

So here goes nothing:


For the QB MVP winners:


  • The average stats for the 25 winning MVP QBs: 20-for-30, 269 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 int.
  • Out of the first 9 QBs to win the MVP, none of them completed more than 17 passes or threw more than 30 times. In this time period, the average QB went 14-for-23, 218 yards, 1.7 TD, 0.6 int
  • Since then (since the 1985 Super Bowl - XIX), the 16 QBs have averaged 23-for-35, 298 yards, 2.7 TDs, 0.4 int
  • Yardage totals for MVP winners range from Roger Staubach's 119 in Super Bowl VI to Kurt Warner's 414 in Super Bowl XXXIV. The lowest total since Staubach's was Tom Brady's first go-around as MVP, only netting 145 passing yards in the Patriots' upset of the St. Louis Rams.

For the QB non-MVP winners:


  • The average stats for the 22 non-winning MVP QBs: 14-for-24, 184 yards, 1 TD, 0.6 int.
  • From Super Bowl I-XIX in which the QB didn't win MVP, the average stats for these QBs: 12-for-19, 141 yards, 1.1 TDs, 0.7 int
  • Since Super Bowl XX, the non-winning QBs averaged 17-28, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 int
  • In the back-to-back Super Bowls that Miami won in the 1970s, Bob Greise went 14-for-18 with 161 yards and a TD and an interception...in both games combined! Could you imagine a QB throwing this little nowadays and winning a Super Bowl in just one game, yet alone two? 

So what does it take for a non-QB to win the MVP? We'll focus on the offensive players:

Running Backs (7 winners)

  • The seven running back winners have averaged 29 carries, 150 yards and 2 TDs. This stat means that basically the workhorse running back is the only type who can win the award.
  • The lowest number of carries for a MVP RB is 20 carries (Marcus Allen), with John Riggins' 38 carries leading the way for MVP running backs.
  • There has not been a running back MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis totaled 157 yards in Super Bowl XXXII.

Wide Receivers (6 winners)

  • The average MVP wide-out has averaged about 7 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown to snag the award. Overall, the six winners were responsible for 799 of their QB's 1361 yards (59%) and 3 of their 8 TDs (Note: Hines Ward did not catch his 43-yard TD from Big Ben - see below)
  • It should be noted that three of these six winners have come in the last 8 years (Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes)
  • These three recent winners averaged 113 yards/game (not counting Ward's catch from the WR), while their QBs averaged 205 yards.
  • In Super Bowl XL, Hines Ward had as many yards receiving as Roethlisberger had passing (123 yards). This occurred thanks to a trick play from the arm of Antwaan Randle-El to Ward for a 43 yard touchdown - this means Roethlisberger only netted 43 yards total from receivers not named Hines Ward.

Defensive Players (8 winners)

  • As mentioned above, records aren't that great when it comes to what defensive players did to earn their MVPs.
  • For the three secondary players to win the award, all three had exactly two interceptions each. The latest of which was 10 years ago when Dexter Jackson snatched two Rich Gannon passes.
  • There have also been three linemen/tackles to win it. Two of these guys shared the award (Harvey Martin & Randy White in Super Bowl XII for the winning Dallas Cowboys). The other was Richard Dent, who had two sacks and two forced fumbles in the Bears' rout of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
  • Only two linebackers have won the award: Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V & the one-and-only Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XXXV.

Other (1 winner)

  • There was also the lone special teams guy to win the award. Desmond Howard earned the award in Super Bowl XXXI with some great returns (244 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return).

This begs the question...

What players have value if betting the Super Bowl MVP? Based on the recent data, the wide receiver position has the best value for MVP. Running backs need an amazing game, including a lot of carries, to take away the MVP from QBs. Gore has a better shot to get 20+ carries than Rice, but I'm eliminating both since no RB has won this in 15 years.

For this bet, you would want to target a guy who has a chance to get around 60% of his QB's total yards.

This leaves three realistic long-shots to win the Super Bowl MVP:

Torrey Smith 17/1
Michael Crabtree 18/1
Anquan Boldin 20/1

If you think the Ravens will win, I would personally look to take Smith. He has the best big-play potential (17 yards/catch & 8 TDs vs. Boldin's 14 yards/catch & 4 TDs this year).

However, with me taking the Niners in this game, I am going to make Michael Crabtree my Super Bowl MVP bet.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts including the playoffs, 37% of his yards (771 of 2104) and 7 of his 13 TD passes have gone to Crabtree. This includes five games where Crabtree accumulated 45% or more of Kaepernick's yards.

Defending the Award


If you think this will be a defensive battle, you may want to considering looking for long-shot defensive players to win the award. Ray Lewis is priced out of this (only 8/1 odds, terrible for a position that's only won the award twice in 46 Super Bowls). I'd suggest looking at the following players if you sense a struggle:

  1. Ed Reed 35/1 (If he picks a couple passes, this is possible. With his ball-hawking skills, he could also return one for a TD)
  2. Patrick Willis 45/1 (His odds were at 90/1 earlier this week). If this is a low-scoring game, Willis will likely have his fingerprints on the game.
  3. Aldon Smith 70/1 (He hasn't had a sack since Week 14. All of his 19.5 sacks came in the 13 games before then, including 5 games with multiple sacks. If the score stays low and he can get a couple sacks, including a turnover, Smith could win it)
  4. Terrell Suggs 75/1 (He hasn't been the dominant player he was last year when he took the defensive player of the year honors, but Suggs is still worth a look. His best game this season came against Denver in the Divisional Round, notching 10 tackles/2 sacks, so perhaps he has a little juice in the tank for a great game against the Niners.