Why, it's the initial B-Bo Knows NFL preview blog, sponsored by (insert your company name here, I'm talking to you Cialis).
Initial thoughts of NFL entering this year...I may change this before the season, depending on injuries, etc.:
Teams that I expect to exceed their projected win totals by 2+ this year:
1. New Orleans - With Sean Payton returning to the helm, I expect the order to be restored in New Orleans. I'm expecting a first-round bye for the Saints and a return to the Super Bowl.
2. Carolina - Cam Newton got a lot of crap last year from the media for their poor start, but did not receive the proper credit for making the Panthers a competitive team down the stretch of 2012. I believe he will carry them into the playoffs in 2013.
3. Cleveland - While I don't believe Brandon Weeden will become a Pro-Bowl QB, I do think he will be a serviceable option for the Browns, and he has some decent skill guys around him on offense (Gordon, Little, Richardson), and what may be the quietest/best move of the offseason is Norv Turner hired as the team's offensive coordinator (dude can't coach a lick but is great as a coordinator, just like Wade Phillips). Their defense should be improved, as they focused their free agent spending and draft on that side of the ball. Call me crazy, but I think the Browns will make the playoffs this season.
4. Cincy - Andy Dalton & AJ Green are establishing a great connection, and I believe this duo will ride the other's coattails to Hawaii for Pro Bowl appearances. They added a few pieces in the draft on the offensive side, and while they didn't do much on the defensive side as far as signings go, they got James Harrison for cheap. Plus, they had a strong defensive unit to begin with.
Teams that I expect to underachieve by at least 2 wins compared to their total:
1. Pittsburgh - I expect more regression from the Steelers before I expect a rise in wins. Big Ben seems like a 35-year old QB with all the wear-and-tear on his body. The strength of Pittsburgh is always the defense, and they were the best in terms of yards per play last year (4.6 yards/play), but it seems like most of their playmakers are on the wrong side of 30. This one is more of a hunch than anything and goes against the recent history of the Steelers.
2. Tampa Bay - I believe the NFC South will be the NFL's toughest division in 2013, so this is the main reason why I think Tampa will finish dead last and lower than their projected 7.5 wins by at least 2 games. I don't think the QB they have now (Freeman) is the answer, and while they have a Pro Bowler behind him in Doug Martin, recent trends show that running backs don't carry teams to success.
3. Indianapolis/Washington - I figured I'd liump these two together. Never before have the teams picking from #1 & #2 in the previous year's draft gone on to both make the playoffs. While I don't expect Luck & RG3 to regress too much, I do expect regression with both of their teams. The Colts were fortunate to finish 10-6 (Luck was turnover prone, they were outscored by their opponents last year). And my big question mark with the Redskins is whether RG3 is going to be rushed back too soon from his injury. I worry that the pressure that the media and fans put on Derrick Rose to return will be ten-fold for RG3, who rejuvinated a dead fanbase last year and is expected to build upon his rookie year with even higher expectations thanks to their division title.
I expect a lot of people to love both of these team's OVER total for wins, but I'm preaching the under for both teams, especially the Colts. Luck's magic down the stretch in games masked a lot of the problems that the Colts had on defense.
4. Minnesota - Another one of those cases where I think a team played over their heads and will have a regression to the mean. I'm a huge fan of All Day, but he literally carried this team to the playoffs last year. I don't think he can do it again without the help of Christian Ponder, who didn't really show himself to be much of a downfield threat. And missing Percy Harvin will not help matters.
Quick recap of my predictions by division:
| AFC | NFC |
| North | North |
| Cin 11-5 | Chi 10-6 |
| Cle 9-7 | GB 9-7 |
| Balt 7-9 | Det 9-7 |
| Pitt 6-10 | Min 5-11 |
| South | South |
| Hou 11-5 | NO 12-4 |
| Indy 7-9 | Car 10-6 |
| Ten 6-10 | Atl 9-7 |
| Jax 5-11 | TB 4-12 |
| East | East |
| NE 12-4 | NYG 10-6 |
| NYJ 7-9 | Phil 9-7 |
| Mia 7-9 | Dal 9-7 |
| Buf 5-11 | Wash 6-10 |
| West | West |
| Den 10-6 | SF 10-6 |
| SD 9-7 | Sea 9-7 |
| KC 7-9 | StL 8-8 |
| Oak 4-12 |
Ariz 4-12 |
Playoff teams
AFC: (1) NE 12-4; (2) Cincy 11-5; (3) Hou 11-5; (4) Den 10-6; (5) SD 9-7; (6) Cle 9-7
NFC: (1) NO 12-4; (2) SF 10-6; (3) NYG 10-6; (4) Chi 10-6; (5) Car 10-6; (6) Sea 9-7
AFC Championship Game: Cincy over Den
NFC Championship Game: NO over SF
Super Bowl: NO over Cincy
For your information, here are the totals (as of 6/10/13) for each team, according to 5dimes (I have bolded what I think will be the side that comes in). I added some comments about my thoughts for each team below:
| 26002 ARI regular season wins under 5½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26004 ATL regular season wins under 10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26006 BAL regular season wins under 8½ - I expect regression here as well. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26008 BUF regular season wins under 6½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26009 CAR regular season wins over 7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26024 GB regular season wins under 10½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26025 HOU regular season wins over 10½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26028 IND regular season wins under 8½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26030 JAX regular season wins under 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26032 KC regular season wins under 7½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26034 MIA regular season wins under 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26036 MIN regular season wins under 7½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26037 NE regular season wins over 11½ - new year, same Patriots | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26039 NOR regular season wins over 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26041 NYG regular season wins over 9 - back to division champs status | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26043 NYJ regular season wins over 6½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26046 OAK regular season wins under 5½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26047 PHI regular season wins over 7½ - Kelly surprises amid low expectations for the Eagles this year. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26050 PIT regular season wins under 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26051 SD regular season wins over 7½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26054 SF regular season wins under 11½ - Crabtree will be difficult loss for offense at first, especially with how Kaepernick relied on him. With tougher division/schedule, I expect 9/10 wins. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26056 SEA regular season wins under 10½ - Like Luck/RG3, I expect some regression w/ Russell Wilson. Still should contend for divison. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26057 STL regular season wins over 7½ - I liked their draft/offseason moves. Dark horse for division title, pending Bradford's development. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26060 TB regular season wins under 7½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26062 TEN regular season wins under 6½ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26064 WAS regular season wins under 8 |
