For all of you folks who have placed a bet in the NFL before - have you ever seen a line too good to be true, bet on that outcome, only to see it fail miserably?
In this situation, have you ever encountered the "group think" of betting, where everyone sees the same thing you do in the above situation and sees no way in hell of a bet losing? All of my friends can remember the Monday Night game between an undefeated Bears squad and a reeling Arizona team. The Bears came out flat, falling behind 20-0 before making an inspired comeback that helped create the famous "Crown Their Ass" speech of Dennis Green. Unfortunately, we all bet on the Bears to cover about a 13 point spread. I can count on my hand how many times I've won bets where me and all of my friends were on the same side of a winning bet.
The truth is - one must look at lines like this a little closer than your normal lines when gambling. If you do some research on lines that you see that look too good to be true, it may help you stay away from games like this, or in some cases, bet on the other team. That's not to say that those bets always lose- because they don't. If you want to plop down the money on those teams, that's perfectly fine and I wish you the best of luck (as long as I'm not betting the other side).
This year with the blog, I decided to pick a game each week of a line that looks too good to be true - I'll call it the Fool's Gold play of the week. Sometimes I will bet it, sometimes I will avoid it. I have been in a Yahoo pick'em league for many years and like to use the public's perception of a pick to gauge heavy favortism of one side over another. I like to look at games where one team is being picked over another (by the spread) at a 70%+ clip. One particular game stands out for me in week 1.
NYG (-3) at Washington - Right now on Yahoo, the Giants are being picked at a 76% rate, which isn't the highest percentage (NE - 86%, Phil - 80%, Ariz & Cle - 79% each), but to me, it's the line that stands out as the Fool's Gold play of the week. All the talk this offseason on the Redskins has been about the mediocre QB battle betweeen Rex Grossman and John Beck, with the former winning the "battle". So why such a small line on what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFC, perhaps the league? One reason here is that it's a divisional/rivalry game, and another is that Opening Week of football can sometimes be a crapshoot. It's also a road game for the Giants - which can't be discounted. The oddsmakers haven't really moved this line since releasing it, despite the heavy Joe Public leaning on the Giants. When I see things like that happening, I tend to lean towards the other side. (No play, but would lean Wash +3)
Week 1 picks (amount bet on each TBD - will post later)
NO/GB Under 47.5 - I like defense to succeed in the first game of the year.
Balt/Pitt Over 36.5 - I've usually been on the under train for this rivalry, but I think these teams' offenses are gonna each get their teams into the 20s. Not as high scoring as their playoff matchup, but I expect each offense to have at least one long TD through the air.
TB -1.5 over Det - Everyone on the Detroit wagon, many think Tampa is a fluke from last year - not me.
StL +3.5 over Phil - I made a killing on StL last year because of oddsmaker/public disrespect. StL will keep it close and may win.
SD -8.5 over Minn - SD is a talented team who will win the division running away as long as their special teams isn't as atrocious as last year. Meanwhile, I don't believe in Minnesota and McNabb's chances.
Carolina +7 over Arizona - I can't spot Arizona this many points. Carolina will be better than last year, rookie QB or not.
Dallas +6.5 over NYJ - Dallas improved under Garrett last year (5-3 close to the season with Kitna as their QB). I am also playing the 9/11 angle (i.e. the Jets having too much pressure playing in NY on the 10 year anniversary of 9/11).
I'll update the actual numbers that I get for each of these games, but I am 99.9% certain these will be my bets.
Enjoy the opening weekend of football, starting with Thursday's battle of the past two Super Bowl champs.
Not gonna bet the side, but I'd like New Orleans +4.5 if I had to bet it.
