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| Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term |
Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.
However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.
Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.
Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.
It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.
Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.
Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.
For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.
A-Rod's Stats:
Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.
It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.
That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.
To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.
Without going around and looking up numbers (which I know you are in love with) I disagree with concern to King Albert. Not so much on the Pujols aspect as much as the Marlins aspect. In the last twenty years the Marlins have 2 World Championships. Florida did not give a shit either time. Again, without looking up numbers, if memory serves correct they were only pulling 10-15k a night during their stretches. Why should they commmit a giant sum of money when money does not buy championships. I read that the Marlins are expecting to have an attendance around 35k at the new park. I disagree, maybe the first year, but once the aura of a brand new stadium wears off the people will not go. Albert belongs in St. Louis. He is Cardinals baseball. A selfless player who has always put it all out on the field, I know you shouldn't pay a player for past performance and that you should only be paying for what they will be performing in the future, but he has to be worth it. Derek Jeter is to the Yankees as Albert is to the Cards. Jeter is now 37, and although not the player he was 10 years ago, still a damn fine ballplayer and leader. Even if Albert were to have a bad 3 years (Age 37-40) who cares. He would be worth the investment as he defines Cardinals baseball. Sure the people may come to Busch without him there, but there is no reason he shouldn't be.
ReplyDeleteI know what you are saying. I think the key w/ the new stadiums is how good a team is after that first year. Most of these teams who built new stadiums were crappy teams and couldn't build off of the first year attendance because of it. If Miami establishes a winning culture, they could avoid it.
ReplyDeleteI think St. Louis would be better served offering him a 5-year deal to be honest at like 30m/yr. Look at how Soriano and other moves like that crippled the Cubs. Soriano was coming off a 40/40 year or was a year or two removed from it and went to shit.
But Soriano was not the face of an organization. You could say Texas, maybe. But I would think of him more of the remnants of AROD. Albert was brought up through the St. Louis farm system, and is the face of the Cards. If you would have stated that Prince Fielder would be best served in Florida(I'm sorry, Miami) I would agree with you. Prince Fielder does not represent the Brew Crew (I don't believe) I think Braun reflects them more. (Which gets me to another thing, for the Brewers coming up with such good talent through their farms you would think they could stay competitive, granted the last two years have been strong). Also, (again without looking up any numbers) when New Comiskey opened up in 91, the Sox had a good team, I believe in 91 or within a couple years of it, McDowell won a Cy Young. But attendance was never really that high, and at that point in time Wrigley was not filled to the gills like it had been through the 2000's(so it wasn't a Cubs city). I have respected the Marlins organization in the way that they have built internally, won it all, blown it up, built internally, and won it all, then blown it up. To me, as a baseball fan, I appreciate that more than going out and buying the big names. Was I excited that the Sox got Dunn, sure. But I have been more excited about guys coming up through the system that I had high hopes for. I love watching a team grow on its own. Even the Yankees of the 90's were predominantly(spelling?) home grown.
ReplyDeleteI mention Soriano in terms of tying up the team financially, not necessarily being face of the organization.
ReplyDeleteI certainly wouldn't fault St. Louis for signing Pujols to a huge contract, just saying that their money could be better spent on re-signing some of these current guys and paying future prospects. The Cardinals draft/develop talent well, so I wouldn't be shocked if they are the ones who find the "next Pujols" in the sense of an out-of-nowhere prospect who shines in the majors for an extended period of time.