Another week in the books, another week on the horizon. Some thoughts came from my Week 2 observations:
The Best D in New England is BraDy
New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.
QBs should wear flags
The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them. That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.
The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.
Cam Newton - Too Much Love
I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.
Tony Romo - Too Much Hate
I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.
While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).
I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.
I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.
Fools Gold
Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)
Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.
Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5
NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6
More Week 3 picks:
Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.
Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5
Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)
Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.
Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)
