Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5

Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.

I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.

I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.

After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.

It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.

It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.

Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.

It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.

I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.

In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.

Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.

It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).

Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.

The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.

Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.

Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.

Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.

Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".

There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.

Anywho....

As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen -  but I won't be backing these myself.

NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11

NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).

Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5

Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.

Have a good weekend.

Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: Tennessee Titans

As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.

Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.

My second feature is on the lone AFC South fan in Chicago that I can find. Thank you to Josh, a good friend  who worked with me about 5 years ago. Tennessee-bred, he is a fan of his home state's team. Here are his thoughts on the Titans' chances this year.

Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:

Dallas Cowboys



Unlike many fans of out-of-town teams, Josh Sumner was originally a fan of the Bears for a long time before switching allegiances to a hometown team. Although he can be excused - Nashville didn't get an NFL team until the Houston Oilers relocated to Tennessee in 1997.

"I actually liked the Bears as my #1 team until the Titans came to town," Josh said. "The 1985 Super Bowl was the first one I remember as a child and I remember how all the adults were pulling for them. Plus, they made it fun. Hell, I can still sing a good portion of the 'Super Bowl Shuffle'".

Repping his hometown college, now a Titans fan

His fandom was rewarded almost immediately, as the touchdown-underdog Titans were a foot short and an extra-point away from forcing overtime against the run-and-gun St. Louis Rams in the 1999 Super Bowl.

Josh's change of rooting interest hasn't made things all that difficult in following his home-town team despite moving to his former favorite team's city 10 years ago.

"We do not play each other usually, nor is there any big rivalry," he said. "Plus, Chicago is a cosmopolitan town and all are welcome to go to our bars and root for whomever you like...even Packer fans."

His consumption of Titans games is a combination of Internet streaming and going to friend's houses who have the NFL Package (DirecTV). However, Josh still seems apt to watch a good Bears match-up over a boring Titans one.

"If the Titans are playing the Browns and the Bears and playing the Packers at the same time, love them or not, I'm likely to watch the Bears game and wait for Titans highlights to come as they may," he said.

He has seen numerous Titans games in his lifetime, including a game at Vanderbilt Stadium, the team's temporary home before their new stadium was being built. His seats were close enough there to see the gigantic size of the players, including Randy Moss.

"That guy is enormous," Josh said, "at least compared to Vanderbilt Stadium."

When it comes to his assessment of the 2012 squad, Josh believes the Titans will be 8-8 and get a wild card berth. A lot of the Titans' fortune this year lies in Kenny Britt, whose injury last year hurt the Titans' chances of making the playoffs in Josh's opinion.

He believes in Jake Locker as the team's quarterback, but just hopes he doesn't turn into another Vince Young, who flamed out quickly as the Titans' signal caller.

"He needs to take his time, learn and get stronger," Josh said. "Everything that Vince Young didn't do."

Josh's favorite Titan - Matt Hasselbeck - will enter the season as Locker's back-up. Josh appreciates Hasselbeck for his similar hairline (read: follically-challenged) and quarterback smarts.

"If Rex Grossman taught me anything," Josh said, "it's that ball control is vital. And you need to be taller than the linemen to play QB."

	Josh Sumner
	(10 years in Chicago)
Favorite team	Titans
A fan since…	1997
# of games attended	numerous
Choice of Team Consumption	Internet, DirecTV NFL Package, bars
Favorite Player All-Time	Steve McNair/Eddie George
Favorite Player Currently	Matt Hasselbeck
2012 Prediction	(8-8. wild card, second-round playoffs)
Vegas Projection for team	7 wins
(as of 8-24-12) 5dimes.eu
Over/under?	Over
Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu	(+495)
Super Bowl odds	100/1
(as of 8-26-12) - 5dimes.eu

My Surprise NFL Playoff Team & Week 14 picks

At this time last year, the NFC West was being led by a pair of 5-7 teams (St. Louis and Seattle), who would end up facing each other in Week 17 as a pair of 6-9 teams dueling for the right to become the first NFL team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record.

A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.

Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.

However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.

Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.

Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.

Breakdown of Seattle schedule

Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.

Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.

Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.

Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).

Predicting the Future

Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.

The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.

In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas

AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.

Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs

Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.

Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.

Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.

Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.

Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.

Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.

Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5

Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!