Peyton's Place: Where the Hall-of-Fame Bound QB Could (and Won't) Go

Note: This blog is written under the assumption that Peyton will play another down in the NFL. There remains much speculation on whether he will be healthy enough to suit up again.

With about five weeks before the Colts have to pay Peyton Manning a roster bonus, this would be a good time to speculate on what teams may be in the running for him and which ones have no shot of signing the future Hall of Fame QB.

I figure Peyton would only go to a contending team to give him the best chance of getting at least one more ring before he retires, so I'll first break down the teams that he has no shot of going to - based on teams lacking talent or no need for a QB.

The numbers are not a ranking of chance/no chance of getting Peyton, rather just a counting device to make the total of teams easy to see.

Definitely Not Peyton's Places

1. Cleveland
2. Washington
3. Buffalo
4. Tampa Bay
5. Miami
6. Jacksonville
7. Seattle
8. Minnesota
9. Oakland
10. Kansas City

Thoughts: Assuming some of these organizations are willing to part ways with their current QBs for Peyton, I don't see him going to any of these teams. Out of these teams, I'd say Miami may be the most intriguing. Buffalo & Kansas City may fall into the category below more, but even then, Peyton wouldn't go here.

Oakland could be close to making the playoffs, especially in a bad division, but seems like their hands are tied to Carson Palmer for 2012.

Ponder may fall into the title of Franchise QB being a first round pick and all, but Minnesota would push him aside if there was even the slightest chance of getting Peyton (which there isn't).


Teams w/ Franchise QBs

1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Philadelphia
4. Dallas
5. NY Giants
6. St. Louis
7. New England
8. Pittsburgh
9. San Diego
10. Carolina
11. New Orleans
12. Atlanta
13. Cincinnati
14. Houston
15. Chicago

Thoughts: None of these teams would consider Peyton given their current QB's stability. You could argue that Bradford isn't a franchise QB, but he's paid like one. Injuries prevented him from having a chance to build on his stellar rookie campaign. The new coaching staff could add Justin Blackmon to complement Brandon Lloyd, who is a free agent but appears interested in resigning with the Rams.

Bears aside: I suppose Cutler falls into the franchise QB conversation. It's probably the organization he is in that makes me think his ceiling isn't as high as it could be. The Bears don't exactly have the best track record of developing quarterbacks. Now that Lovie says he wants the team to go to a run-first approach despite everything in the NFL favoring elite QBs, not to mention the Bears' lack of talented WRs, Cutler will likely be even more limited. Even if you don't consider Cutler a franchise QB, Manning may not want to go to Chicago with this coaching staff's mentality in place.

Contender Unlikely to Consider Peyton

1. Baltimore

Thoughts: Flacco's performance in the AFC Championship (and winning at least a game in the playoffs in each of his first four seasons) may be enough for Baltimore to keep him. His numbers, however, tell me that he is not elite and that the team was often winning in spite of him, not because.

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That leaves 6 teams that Manning may line up under center in 2012. Once again, in no particular order...

Contenders (or Potential Contenders) Who May Not Be Sold On Current QB

1. San Francisco
2. New York Jets
3. Tennessee
4. Denver

Thoughts: There's not too many teams who are Super Bowl contenders that don't already have a franchise QB in place. That tells you something on how hard it is to win in this league without one.

San Fran would seem ideal, especially seeing how close they were to the Super Bowl this year. I see the Niners more than likely resigning Alex Smith to a 1- or 2-year deal. I put their chances of signing him at minimal.

The Jets desperately need a leader who will get the veteran's attention in the locker room (I'm figuratively looking at you, Santonio Holmes) and get the most out of this squad. I don't think the team (and especially the fan base) is buying Mark Sanchez long-term. Manning wouldn't allow this crap to continue and would bring a competitive edge that was missing from the 2011 squad. There may be other issues that the Jets want to take care of first, but they wouldn't mind winning the NY tabloid battle by signing the aging slinger.

Not sure the Colts would release Peyton if they knew he'd want to go to Tennessee. Imagine the Colts facing him twice a year, a la Favre vs. Green Bay those two years. University of Tennessee is where he went to college - no clue if that appeals to him or not, but something to keep in mind. They drafted Jake Locker in the first round last year, but I'm not convinced they'd avoid Peyton if he showed interest in joining the Titans, who finished just outside of the playoffs this year. Kenny Britt would become a Pro-Bowler if Manning comes into town. The play action possibilities with Chris Johnson in the backfield would be awesome to see.

Denver seems to be the most intriguing. While it would be hard for Elway to remove Jesus Christ from the starting lineup based on his cultish popularity, I do believe that the Broncos have a few talented guys that Peyton could work with and make better. Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker would be giving Peyton better WRs to work with than New England (remember, Gronk & Hernandez are TEs). Argue Welker all you want, but Brady has made Welker's career - as a Dolphin, Welker was a middle-of-the-road option in a failing offense - now, a Pro Bowler.

I don't buy into Tebowites saying Tebow had no one to throw to. When your completion percentage is less than 50% in a 60% league, the world's best receivers wouldn't be able to bail you out. Manning has made stars out of less-talented players before (see: Jacob Tamme, Brandon Stokley).

Down the stretch, the Broncos' defense played well and was the main reason for the team winning 7 of 11 games with Tebow behind center. The real question to answer: Would Denver's fanbase accept Peyton as the team's QB at the expense of Tebow? Fans shouldn't decide who the starting QB is, but his overwhelming popularity may be hard for the team to bench him - Hall of Fame QB be damned. If there is one team president that could get away with making this move though, it is John Elway.

Wild Cards for Peyton

1. Arizona
2. Indianapolis

Thoughts: Arizona has so much money committed to Kevin Kolb, but his stint at QB was hardly memorable. Hell, John Skelton played better than him at times in 2011. I put them in my Wild Card category because I do think they showed some talent down the stretch, and I can't help but think of what Kurt Warner did when he came in and revived a dead franchise that was floundering with Matt Leinart behind center. Imagine two of the most driven & studious players together on one team - Peyton to Fitzgerald could be magic.

Weird to consider Indianapolis as a sleeper seeing as though he's still under contract with them. Maybe I'm already buying into him being gone with all the change that has taken place in Indy and how they are in a rebuilding phase and consider it a long-shot that he'd stick around. I don't see Manning wanting to stay around - even as a starter - when Andrew Luck is drafted. The speculation of when Luck would be starting if the Colts start the 2012 poorly is probably something Manning wouldn't care to deal with at this stage of his career. Besides, I think the Colts are far from contending for a Super Bowl in the near future (the main reason he'd leave).


If I had to guess....

I see the Jets as the likely candidate to snag up Peyton. Rex Ryan could make Super Bowl predictions with more gusto if they get him under center. The Jets still need to make other moves to solidify their offense (and still have a void at the offensive coordinator position).

Mark Sanchez might be better served to start fresh somewhere else. The scrutiny that he has faced from media, fans and teammates despite all of his fourth quarter comebacks tells me that a QB switch is looming.

Either way, I don't think we'll have to wait till the draft or later to find out if Peyton will remain a Colt. Smart money says he will either retire or go to another team.