If you're a gambler and like most people I know who gamble, you usually like to bet favorites at a high rate. If you're doing that this year, you're doing yourself wrong. Way wrong.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
