Another Lesson Learned & NFL Week 4 Picks

As readers may know, I bombed completely on NCAA picks and continued my success in the NFL.

Week 3	Week 4
NFL 7-1, +394	NCAA 2-8, -$400
Totals 3-0, $213	Totals 0-1, -$110
MLs 2-0, $126	MLs 0-3, -$170
Spreads, 2-1, $55	Spreads 2-4, -$120
YTD: 15-7-3, +$389	YTD: 8-12, -$325
Totals: 7-1-1, +$327	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-0, +$126	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 6-6-2, -$64	Spreads: 8-6, +$65

Between the footballs, I am 23-19-3 and up $64. Ever since my opening night Under debacle, I haven't lost a bet when wagering on over/under totals (7-0-1) - leaving off exactly where I was last year.

One lesson learned from this past week is very simple: Don't bet on teams that you know absolutely nothing about.

I know this sounds simple and common sense, but sometimes reading about one of these teams and how they are perceived by smart handicappers can get a novice like me to throw money on a team. This happened a few times this past Saturday with college football. Outside of my viewing of Big Ten games, prime time/isolated games and matchups featuring highly regarded teams, I know very little about college football. My betting angles are highly determined by certain guys on the advice site I use (covers.com) that I trust.

It's always better to bet on teams/games where you've watched these teams at least once or twice and read some pieces on teams. There's too many games for people to be experts on every single team/conference in the nation. I always believed that studying up on a smaller conference that doesn't get bet heavily would be the best way to make a living gambling, but I've never gotten around to following my advice on that.


Blog note: I haven't narrowed down any NCAA picks yet, so I'll save that for tomorrow or Saturday morning. I was just too damn bored to put off writing my NFL picks blog for the week.

Fools Gold Pick of the Week - NFL Week 4

The Fools Gold pick moved to 3-0 with an ugly Seahawks winning (which I happened to bet the money line on instead of taking the points). Most of the time, I'll take the points but I felt confident that Arizona wouldn't win - yet alone cover. Looking to make this 4-0, so here goes nothing:

Buffalo -3/3.5 at Cincinnati - How could Buffalo only be three point favorites coming off of an incredible come-from-behind victory against their division rivals (New England) and Cincy coming off of a dismal performance against an equally dismal team (San Fran)? One word: letdown.

Buffalo was pulling an 0-fer against New England in their past 15 games against them and was determined to end that streak - even after they spotted Brady and company three touchdowns before the last-second chip shot field goal. A mental letdown is to be expected against a non-divisional opponent.

Whether it be Cedric Benson (who is awaiting word on his suspension at the moment) or Bernard Scott, I expect the Bengals to be able to run the ball like they did last year against the Bills (Benson went for 25 carries and 124 yards in a home loss).

Also, the Bengals come into Week 4 with the third-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Granted, these teams they faced aren't necessarily offensive juggernauts (Bengals, Broncos, Niners), but I do think they'll keep this lower-scoring than what the Bills have been comfortable with so far this year.

I am aware of the loss that the Bengals had in this matchup last year. I just believe that at this moment in the season, the Bills are due for a stinker. The circumstances seem ripe for one.

Likely betting: Cincy +3 (hoping to get it at 3.5 by game time). YTD: 3-0 (2-0 on games I've bet of these Fools picks)


Other NFL Picks I'm scoping

Boy, would I love to keep this 12-2-2 run of the past two weeks going. I know I have a chance myself to encounter a Buffalo Bills letdown, but no reason to think that I can't continue to progress as a smart NFL gambler.

Houston -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh - Already booked. My book has fluctuated anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 for this game, and I don't think it's going to get down to the key -3 number, so I figured I'd lock it in now. I love this matchup for Houston's pass attack against Pittsburgh's average secondary. Also love the matchup for Houston's pass rush vs. Pittsburgh's weakened line, which got burned alive against the Colts last week.

Chicago -6 vs. Carolina - I think Carolina (particularly Newton) is in for a rude awakening against a Bears defense that was made to look average against the Packers - this tends to happen against all teams that play the Packers. Carolina's running game has been non-existent so far, and I think the Bears defense will be able to exploit this and force a couple of turnovers on Newton. A defensive score would not shock me. I think the Bears win this by 14+. Also considering the under (currently at 42)

San Fran +9 at Philly - I think this will be the third game in a row that Vick does not finish a game. Their offensive line is pedestrian - Patrick Willis and company are licking their chops at building off of their defensive domination against the Bengals. Normally, I'd be worried about the west coast team travelling east, but San Fran stayed out east after their tilt in Ohio. I think Vernon Davis will finally become a consistent part of the San Fran offense that they desperately need after his 100+ yard performance. I think this stays within the spread (hoping it climbs to 10 for a little more insurance), with a mild chance of a San Fran upset.

NYJ +3.5 at Baltimore - Mangold should be coming back this week - an important component of the Jets' offensive line. They'll need him against Ngata and the rest of the Ravens pass rush. I think this will be the defensive, smash mouth battle that the NFL has been lacking this year. Getting the half point here will be key - I think this will be a game decided by a field goal one way or the other.

Other sides I am considering: Seattle +4, Tennessee pick'em

Totals I am considering: Phil/SF Under 44, Chi/Car Under 42, Pitt/Hou Over 45, Balt/NYJ Under 42.5

Check www.twitter.com/brianbolek (or Twitter @brianbolek) for updates

I may or may not end up posting an NCAA picks blog and may just post my plays on Twitter. Stay tuned.

Start your weekends off right, my friends and family. Love you all.

We're Talking Baseball: Excitement, Disrespect & Playoff Predictions

Random baseball thoughts:

Blowing the Load

If baseball's amazing action yesterday were analogized in sexual terms, one might say that MLB blew it all out on the foreplay part.

What a kickoff to the baseball playoffs. It was the most excited I've been watching baseball since 2005. Unfortunately, I don't see there being an opportunity to go up from here.

Sure, there will be moments that stick out. Perhaps another walk-off home run to decide a game or a great catch at the wall that prevents a bases-clearing double in the late innings could capture our attentions briefly.

To get that kind of excitement from many different games at once, however, will be nearly impossible to match.

Tampa Bay Rons

Putting baseball in a political spectrum, Tampa Bay reminds me much of Ron Paul. All of the semantics surrounding their entry into the playoffs is all about the Red Sox collapse, not Tampa Bay's strong push to make it to this point. This is much like anytime Dr. Paul is mentioned (or more appropriately, not mentioned) in an article addressing percentages in the polls.

The Cardinals get more credit for their comeback to make the playoffs than the Rays do - which has to do with the news market having an interest in the Cardinals (particularly their history) and very little interest in a team lucky to draw 15,000 fans to a game. Also, it helps when the team that collapsed is based in the Northeast, where much of the mainstream media are based - and of course, another team that is rich in history throughout the history of baseball.

If the Rays win the World Series, Sportscenter may promote it as "Phillies Collapse" rather than promoting the victors. I could see the same for Ron Paul if he were lucky enough to get put on the Republican ticket - "Obama Falters in Re-Election Bid".

Rooting Interest

Speaking of the Rays, I definitely have a financial stake in rooting for them to win it all. On Tuesday when they were tied with the Red Sox, my site had the Rays' odds of winning the WS at 18/1, so I threw 20 on it.

In the other AL series, I am hoping that the Tigers can pull it out. My last live bet on BookMaker is a $10 bet to win the World Series at 40/1.

The NL team with the best odds (best being relative on value) on 5dimes is the Brewers, coming in at 8/1. I am debating a small bet on them as well.

What's Your Fantasy?

Baseball isn't as sexy of a sport for me to play in the fantasy sports realm of life. This was my first year of the past 4 where I didn't play a money league.

However, I still do take some pride in my teams, and I'll take any championship that I can. Even if it means when I didn't really win it, per se. I finished a league with the top seed and had my pitching carry me to a 6-6 tie. However, since I held the top seed and that's the first tiebreaker, I took down the crown. My other leagues lent themselves to average finishes (6 of 12 and 7 of 10), so I really wanted this one bad.

Analyzing My Preseason Picks/Making New Ones

Back in March, I wrote a piece on my predictions for the MLB season, foolishly selecting the White Sox losing to the Phillies in the Fall Classic. While I was way off on half of that, I think the second of that is looking pretty strong entering October.

Division predictions that went well: Brewers and Rangers were my only correct predictions.
Division predictions that faded during the second half: The Giants could never muster any offense to support their strong staff and the Red Sox did their best to mirror the beginning and end of their season.
Division predictions that never had a chance: The Twins (last place finish) and Braves (distant second place) were easily bested.
Wild cards: White Sox (oooooops) and Phillies (tried being cute and having them win the World Series after winning the wild card).

New prediction for the World Series (part 3): Phillies over Rays
My first prediction bombed. My midseason prediction (Phils over Tigers) could very well happen. I just like the Rays' pitching over the other teams left in the AL.

Even though I'd rather have one of my bets come in, I don't see Philly's staff being bested. Pitching carries teams in the postseason.

NFL/College blog to come tomorrow.

Have a good evening everyone.