Dating back to the Giants' first Super Bowl run in 2008, there has been at least one team favored by 7+ points who has lost every year in this round:
- 2008 - NYG upset Dallas as 7-point underdogs (21-17). I refer to this game as the "Scream Game", as this was the first big bet I ever won while in Vegas. It also happened to occur while I took a nap throughout the entire game. I was literally tired of losing every single bet I had made up until that point. I woke up as the post-game was about to start and saw the final score and flipped out.
San Diego also beat Indianapolis as 10.5 point underdogs on the same day (28-24). Boy, do I envy those crazy fools who parlayed SD & NYG money lines that day. - 2009 - No one gave Arizona (+10) much of a chance against the Carolina Panthers in this particular year, but they should have. Hell, Arizona covered the reverse spread, winning easily 33-13 en route to to their franchise's first-ever Super Bowl run.
- 2010 - With how underachieving Norv Turner's teams have been, their loss to the Jets as 7.5 point favorites might not surprise people much. But there was enough of a talent difference (as was the case in the Norv era) for them to be favored by this much. The Jets won the defensive battle 17-14. With how bad the Jets are, this game feels like it happened a lot longer than 3 years ago.
- 2011 - After being destroyed in their last regular season tilt against the Patriots, the Jets were not given much of a chance to win the playoff matchup between the two in Foxboro, closing as a +9.5 underdog. As the story goes, the Jets won this straight up, 28-21
- 2012 - The Giants do it again, this time against Green Bay. The Giants (+8) dismantled the Packers 37-20, the second playoff step in their second championship run in the Eli era.
Random note: the last three of these upsets occurred in the last game of the weekend. So if the Ravens don't pull off the upset, don't be surprised if the Texans do it on Sunday afternoon.
Naturally, I bring these recent trends up because I anticipate one of the big dogs to win this weekend. Another Brady versus Manning AFC Championship game seems too good to be true.
Without further ado:
Baltimore 24, Denver 20 - This is more of a gut-feeling play than anything. I see Baltimore being the team that continues this trend. Normally, teams in this spot (blown out by the opponent in the regular season match-up) fair much better in the playoff rematch. Joe Flacco gets critiqued a lot, but he's won a playoff game in his first five years in the league, including a 4-4 road record. He has more career playoff road wins than many of the legends, including Peyton (2-4 road record) & Brady (3-2).
There's too many Peyton playoff games that come to mind where he loses in this spot. In his previous 11 trips to the playoffs with the Colts, Manning went one-and-done seven times, including losses as a home team in four of them (three of which were off of a bye). The two Super Bowl runs are responsible for six of his nine career playoff wins (9-10 overall record).
San Francisco 21, Green Bay 17 - I'm torn both ways on this game. I worry about the Justin Smith injury and how effective he will be with a partially torn triceps. He sets everything up for Aldon Smith, who was able to set the franchise record for sacks largely due to the attention that Justin draws on the line. I'm being the optimistic Niners fan boy here and saying Justin will be effective enough to help Aldon out and also help the rush defense.
I expect a game of ground-and-pound with Gore, who should get 25+ carries. Kaepernick will be facing an under-rated defense, which is getting players healthy at the right time of the year. I worry a little about our receiving depth - gonna need Randy Moss to step up.
In the end, I believe San Francisco's defense will hold up just enough to take this game.
Atlanta 28, Seattle 18 - It would shock no one if the Seahawks continued their roll and advanced to the NFC title game, especially given Atlanta's recent history of playoff ineptitude. I feel folks are sleeping on the Falcons and we haven't seen the best of them. I expect Matt Ryan to finally put together a solid playoff game and send the Seahawks packing.
New England 27, Houston 20 - I don't see Houston getting spanked by New England again. These revenge match-ups benefit the team who got blown out in the previous match-up. Houston will want to neutralize Brady by feeding the ball to Arian Foster constantly (like I mentioned in the San Fran write-up for Gore). However, I don't think they can completely neutralize their passing attack, which will be enough for the Patriots to take this game.
Feel free to offer your own predictions. I look forward to being way wrong about these games.
Go Niners!
