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| Even a shit-faced Belushi would be coherent enough to make these bets. |
Another week, another college football write-up day, with bets bolded in ( ):
Last week posted picks: 2-1; year to date: 14-10-1 (took a shot on UCLA last night foolishly, oops), +$126
Illinois/Indiana (under 55.5): Illinois is a run-first team, 29th in the nation with 200 yards/game on the ground, with passing near the bottom at 136/game. While Indiana's offense and defense tend to lend itself towards overs (5th nationally in passing yards, bottom third in the nation in yards allowed), Illinois will dictate the pace of this game with their running and surprisingly sharp defense (19th in the nation in yards allowed). A quick look at the weather report also shows 20mph winds around gametime, so if that's the case, Indiana's passing game may not be as strong as week's past. I see this ending in the mid 40s with Illinois winning about 27-17.
Wisconsin at Iowa (-6, hoping to get at 5.5 or 5): It seems like a high number to give a team like Wisconsin who just beat the number 1 team in the nation. I believe Wisconsin fed off of the emotion of the home crowd (I think OSU is still a better team than Wisconsin) and a let-down in a game like this on the road is natural. Iowa is starting out its Big Ten season in style, beating up on Penn St and knocking out Denard & UM on the road last week. Iowa's won 8 of the last 10 meetings. A few weeks back, UW lost to MSU on the road by 10- that's where I put Iowa at for this week, 10-14 point win.
LSU at Auburn (under 51.5): No question that Les Miles is as big of a maniac of a coach as there is in the coaching ranks of any sport. One thing he knows how to do is win though. Statistically speaking, LSU is top 10 nationally in passing yards and rushing yards allowed (3rd overall). Being a road underdog won't intimidate Miles and his squad, who have seemed to play to the level of their competition. Auburn's stout offense hasn't faced a defense like this yet. And Auburn's defense, towards the middle of the pack in the nation, may not have its defensive weakness exposed as LSU is terrible in the passing game and 92nd in the nation in total yards. I expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams fighting to stay in the championship game conversation, around the lines of 20-16.
As you can see, this is the first week where I looked at some statistics in my bets. We'll see how well this works. Bet at your own risk, but also remember....it's not gambling when you know you are gonna win. So let's do it.
Holding off on betting game 6 of the Yanks series tonight. My obvious rooting interest in NYY, plus the risk of $80 going down from earlier in the year if they lose tonight, is enough for me. I would probably bet on Cliff Lee in game 7 if there is one if only to pseudo-hedge my World Series bet.
I think Phillies force a game 7 tomorrow.
