On this day off from work, one that I was planning on taking anyways but a mild fever of 100 would have probably made me call my boss anyways like a wuss, I feel compelled to write again.
I wish I gave myself the time to write these blogs more. I feel like I get rusty with writing when I go weeks at a time without writing.
Anyways, this blog is a seasonal topic - the topic of belief.
During this time of year, it seems to make all the difference in the world as to whether you Believe or not. When you still Believe, your innocence is maintained. When you still Believe, you KNOW the gifts that you open are from the man at the North Pole.
Believing in something or someone is what separates adults from kids at this time of year. I think I was about 11 or 12 when I questioned my Believing in these seasonal things to my parents. After all, the writing was on the chalkboard - I remember getting a chalkboard as a kid and can distinctly remember the style in which Santa wrote his message on the board. It was CLEARLY my dad's handwriting. But back then, I was too young to play the role of CSI on the chalkboard writing sample.
After the myth was revealed, it wasn't like I stopped enjoying Christmas. I have a family I love spending time with every year - both immediate and aunts/uncles/cousins. But there is a part of that Belief being wiped out that makes Christmas lose its childhood luster.
Nowadays, like most adults I know, I get way more out of giving gifts than getting them. With most people I buy for, I go based off of gut feeling on what they will like rather than a list. I think it's only fair - after all, I waited until about two days ago to write a list to my mom of what I wanted for Christmas.
I think my full renewal into Belief mode will be when I become a Papa. It seems to me that coming full-circle on the whole getting gifts as a kid to giving gifts to my kids will get the Belief spirit back into me. Having a kid who Believes will turn me back into a kid myself.
The innocence will be renewed, and the cycle of Belief will continue. When that time comes, I think these last few sentences will prove to be prophetic.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa and whatever holiday around this time I missed (oh yeah, Happy Boxing Day) to everyone I know!
12/22/2011
12/09/2011
My Surprise NFL Playoff Team & Week 14 picks
At this time last year, the NFC West was being led by a pair of 5-7 teams (St. Louis and Seattle), who would end up facing each other in Week 17 as a pair of 6-9 teams dueling for the right to become the first NFL team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record.
A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.
Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.
However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.
Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.
Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.
Breakdown of Seattle schedule
Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.
Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.
Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.
Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).
Predicting the Future
Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.
The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.
In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas
AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.
Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs
Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.
Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.
Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.
Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.
Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.
Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.
Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5
Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!
A year later, and one small change to the top of the division can be shown. This small change includes a team with a winning record (not only that, but the 2nd best team in the NFC based on record in the San Francisco 49ers). It should be noted that the Niners have compiled a 7-2 record outside of the division, so it's not just a beat-down of their division that has led them to a quick clinching of a playoff spot.
Outside of them, we have our standard 2010 scenario. A couple of 5-7 teams (with Arizona taking StL's spot - the Rams have digressed to a 2-10 record at this point) are present. Not much thought is given to the division by the public outside of the Niners, and I don't blame people.
However, there is a potential sleeper of a playoff team that sits at that 5-7 mark that has a shot of a playoff berth. Meaning....a SECOND playoff berth from the NFC West.
Yes, we could end up seeing the Seattle Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs.
Sounds crazy, but I see their schedule shaping up well down the stretch.
Breakdown of Seattle schedule
Week 14- vs. St Louis, which as mentioned before, is a team on the down swing. I'd be surprised if the Rams could muster up much offense if Bradford (questionable) is out. Feeley looked putrid against the Niners - then again, everyone has. Seattle has a strong home-field advantage with the 12th man.
Week 15- at Chicago. The Bears fit the profile of the Rams when it comes to putrid week 13 performances. The past couple years, Seattle has been a bad road team. But they don't really need to be a great road team if the Bears fail to muster much offense (especially if Forte continues to be out at this point) and don't get special teams help from Hester (which they'll need). While I think the Bears will likely be favorites, I would likely bet on Seattle to cover and win the game straight up.
Week 16- vs. SF. This is where it could be tricky. If the Niners have the #2 seed clinched, they would likely rest some starters in lieu of the playoffs. This would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. Even without that, I always worry about the Niners' chances travelling to Seattle (2-4 in the Alex Smith era, with some reallllllly ugly losses there). I know this Niners team is different, but Seattle plays well as a road underdog.
Week 17- at Ariz. Strangely, I could see this being their toughest game (assuming SF has nothing to play for the week before). Arizona has played more competitive this year than advertised despite being 5-7 themselves. Nine of their 12 games have been decided within a score, and they too could make a claim to possibly going 9-7 (but their Week 16 matchup at Cincy will likely be their loss down the stretch). The Cards D gave Dallas fits last week and like Seattle, plays better at home. (Editor's note: I like Arizona +4 vs. San Fran this week).
Predicting the Future
Winning these 4 games would put Seattle at 9-7, and more importantly, 8-4 in the conference. If tied with Atlanta, they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker but would hold it against New York and Chicago should they tie with that record.
The Giants have to play the Cowboys twice down the stretch and against the Jets in a "road" game (even though they share the same stadium), so I doubt they post a flawless record in that stretch. Atlanta has been a difficult team to read, so it's hard to say if they'll take care of business where they should (likely loss to Saints, this week could lose to Car). If the combo of Cutler and Forte are gone for the rest of the year as many speculate, the Bears may lose out (I'll say they end 8-8). And the Lions have been shaky since their hot start and already have 5 conference losses. They may need the Packers to rest their starters in Week 17 to get into the playoffs.
In conference order, I'll say the NFC is as follows: GB, SF, NO, Dal, Atl & Seattle.
First round of Sea at NO & Atl at Dallas
AFC will be NE, Balt, Hou, Den, Pitt & Tenn. I like Denver's schedule down the stretch compared to Oakland and they own tiebreakers on Oakland. I think Balt & Pitt will both end up 12-4.
First round of Pitt at Denver & Ten at Hou.
Any who, back to gambling - Riding the Dogs
Rather than give numbers of the past 2 weeks, I'll just say that the Thanksgiving weekend of games were bad on the account, but Week 13 I had a bounce back. Week 14 started out well with the Under 40 in Pitt/Cle easily coming in, despite each team looking great offensively in their first drives.
Tenn (+3.5) vs. New Orleans - This is my favorite play of the week. New Orleans has looked like world-beaters in the past couple weeks at home, but are 3-3 on the road this year. Past couple years, you can find some good spots to fade NO on the road, and this is one of them.
Tennessee is one of the quietest 7-5 teams ever. Chris Johnson is starting to run well, and with the Saints allowing 4.9 yards/carry, I could see them running Johnson about 30 times on Sunday. I say Tennessee wins this one straight up, but will likely take the points as insurance.
Arizona +4 vs. SF - Another one of those lines that looks too good to be true. The Niners will likely be without Patrick Willis. Even though they closed the game well against the Rams, I expect a letdown without their leader out there on defense. Fitz will get a score against the Niners secondary, which is middle of the road in terms of pass yards allowed. I say this game is within a field goal either way - taking the points.
Phil +3 at Miami - With how over-valued the Eagles were entering the year, I think there is great value on them this week. Vick is coming back, so there should be a little more consistency to the passing game. Miami has covered 6 straight spreads and covered many of them by several scores, which is reflected in this line here.
Cin -3 vs. Hou - Yates played well in his first career start, but he was aided by a great defensive performance and miscues by the Falcons and also being at home. On the road, I see Yates struggling and the Bengals getting back on track with a victory by 2 scores.
Considering: Wash +7.5, Wash/NE under 48.5, NYG/Dal Under 48.5
Thanks for reading - Enjoy your weekends!
12/07/2011
Bye to the Hiatus: Sports Talk about Santo, Marlin$, Te-Pro Bowl
I've had writer's block, haven't really sat down by my computer after work, etc., so I apologize to the 10 of you who read my blog regularly.
And by apologize, I mean I'm not really sorry and you should write for me on my writing hiatuses.
Anywho, lots of sports stuff - might write a few blogs tonight. For now, a bulleted one.
As they always say, you're always more famous when you're dead...Ron Santo in the Hall of Fame, finally.
For years, Santo and his loyal fanbase lobbied for his induction into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee, which passed him over with each vote. It took the Golden Era Committee (which reviews players from 1947-1972 that have been left out of the Hall) to vote him in. A couple of points from this and the Hall of Fame in general:
Pujols has had 3-4 years in declining stats and is going to be an average to slightly above-average player in about 4-5 years, which means 5-6 years of dead money. Also, we assume he is 31 right now. With how often Dominicans who come to the major leagues have fudged their age, what if he is 33 right now? That would mean he would be 42-43 when this deal ends. Like I said a few weeks ago, the Cards should let the Marlins sign him. The Cardinals do not need him to contend in a weak NL Central now. And with the solid foundation of ownership that they've always had, they won't need him in the near future.
Never thought I'd be saying this, but I'd be surprised if Tebow WASN'T a Pro-Bowler this year. Before you think I've swallowed a couple of crazy pills and smoked a pipe, look at the AFC and look at the talent of the QBs this year by division. And by no means am I a believer in his long-term success, merely looking at this year's QB situations in the AFC. (Note: I've named the starter to be the guy who has started the most game for his team at this point):
AFC North: Big Ben, Flacco, McCoy, Dalton: Only one who will make Pro Bowl (at least initially) will be Big Ben.
AFC South: Schaub, Painter, Hasselbeck, Gabbert: No Pro-Bowlers here. Schaub, who would have made it, is out for year.
AFC East: Brady, Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, Moore: Brady will go. Sanchez is under-rated and gets too much criticism, don't see him getting in. Fitzpatrick is a sleeper for nomination. If Moore could have started the year, he may be more considered (and Miami may be a playoff team).
AFC West: Tebow, Palmer, Rivers, Cassel: Again, no one here deserves nomination. Rivers is having a down year, Palmer is still getting his feet wet.
Will get in: Brady, Big Ben
Could get in: Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Tebow
Probably won't: Rivers, Hasselbeck, Sanchez
Won't get in: Everyone else
As you can see by a breakdown, it's not too crazy to think that the Tebow hype gets him in the Pro Bowl, even though his stats don't show it. The fans get a third of the vote, remember. Also remember that Big Ben and Brady will likely bail on the Pro Bowl (playoff status or not) and there will be replacement(s) for them.
Also remember that the Pro Bowl is a useless game that no one really cares about or watches anyways, and the arguments over who doesn't get in are as pointless as the arguments about the fringe teams who don't make the NCAA tourney.
The BCS got the final game right, but there should at least be a +1 scenario in place. Just about everyone who watches college football has something bad to say about the BCS, and most believe there should be some kind of playoff. I know some people who believe a team should win their conference (whether it have a title game or not) in order to be considered. Others don't like the idea of a rematch in the title game - I have no problem with one.
However, I do think that there should be some mini-playoff, like a +1 scenario, which I understand to be a four-team playoff, with winners of semi-final games to play in championship game. In years where there are less than two major conference teams that finish undefeated, the BCS process gets critiqued. Last year, Oregon and Auburn finished undefeated, so no problems there. This year? LSU and then a bunch of 1-loss teams.
I think Bama and OK St should play each other in a couple weeks to play for the right to play LSU in champ game. Either way, I think it'd end up being Bama/LSU for the title.
And by apologize, I mean I'm not really sorry and you should write for me on my writing hiatuses.
Anywho, lots of sports stuff - might write a few blogs tonight. For now, a bulleted one.
As they always say, you're always more famous when you're dead...Ron Santo in the Hall of Fame, finally.
 |
| Welcome to the Hall, Ron. Too bad you weren't around to answer the call. |
For years, Santo and his loyal fanbase lobbied for his induction into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee, which passed him over with each vote. It took the Golden Era Committee (which reviews players from 1947-1972 that have been left out of the Hall) to vote him in. A couple of points from this and the Hall of Fame in general:
- Good for him, but why did he get voted in a year after he died? Did it take his death to get voted in?
- The Hall of Fame shouldn't be easy to get into. It should be a selective process and reward only the game's best.
- Santo didn't get voted into the Hall by the regular voters mainly because of the influx of guys voted into the hall during his 15 year eligibility span (over half of the time he was eligible, 4+ guys got voted in by regular committee).
- The Hall voters are dumb. Only thing you need to know, no one, not even Babe Ruth or Ted Williams, has ever been voted in unanimously. Voters who leave certain guys off their ballots should have their vote taken away. Next example of this - Greg Maddux.
- How can voters not vote for someone one year, then next year change their ballot to include said player(s)? Player's stats (aside from Hack Wilson's) haven't changed after they retired, so it makes no sense to leave a guy off of a ballot if you think he is a HOF. Either you think he is HOF-worthy or he is not. It shouldn't be a year-to-year thing where as a voter, you change your mind and say, you know what, he is worthy now.
Pujols has had 3-4 years in declining stats and is going to be an average to slightly above-average player in about 4-5 years, which means 5-6 years of dead money. Also, we assume he is 31 right now. With how often Dominicans who come to the major leagues have fudged their age, what if he is 33 right now? That would mean he would be 42-43 when this deal ends. Like I said a few weeks ago, the Cards should let the Marlins sign him. The Cardinals do not need him to contend in a weak NL Central now. And with the solid foundation of ownership that they've always had, they won't need him in the near future.
 |
| Tebow a Pro-Bowler? Not as crazy of a thought as you might think. |
Never thought I'd be saying this, but I'd be surprised if Tebow WASN'T a Pro-Bowler this year. Before you think I've swallowed a couple of crazy pills and smoked a pipe, look at the AFC and look at the talent of the QBs this year by division. And by no means am I a believer in his long-term success, merely looking at this year's QB situations in the AFC. (Note: I've named the starter to be the guy who has started the most game for his team at this point):
AFC North: Big Ben, Flacco, McCoy, Dalton: Only one who will make Pro Bowl (at least initially) will be Big Ben.
AFC South: Schaub, Painter, Hasselbeck, Gabbert: No Pro-Bowlers here. Schaub, who would have made it, is out for year.
AFC East: Brady, Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, Moore: Brady will go. Sanchez is under-rated and gets too much criticism, don't see him getting in. Fitzpatrick is a sleeper for nomination. If Moore could have started the year, he may be more considered (and Miami may be a playoff team).
AFC West: Tebow, Palmer, Rivers, Cassel: Again, no one here deserves nomination. Rivers is having a down year, Palmer is still getting his feet wet.
Will get in: Brady, Big Ben
Could get in: Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Tebow
Probably won't: Rivers, Hasselbeck, Sanchez
Won't get in: Everyone else
As you can see by a breakdown, it's not too crazy to think that the Tebow hype gets him in the Pro Bowl, even though his stats don't show it. The fans get a third of the vote, remember. Also remember that Big Ben and Brady will likely bail on the Pro Bowl (playoff status or not) and there will be replacement(s) for them.
Also remember that the Pro Bowl is a useless game that no one really cares about or watches anyways, and the arguments over who doesn't get in are as pointless as the arguments about the fringe teams who don't make the NCAA tourney.
The BCS got the final game right, but there should at least be a +1 scenario in place. Just about everyone who watches college football has something bad to say about the BCS, and most believe there should be some kind of playoff. I know some people who believe a team should win their conference (whether it have a title game or not) in order to be considered. Others don't like the idea of a rematch in the title game - I have no problem with one.
However, I do think that there should be some mini-playoff, like a +1 scenario, which I understand to be a four-team playoff, with winners of semi-final games to play in championship game. In years where there are less than two major conference teams that finish undefeated, the BCS process gets critiqued. Last year, Oregon and Auburn finished undefeated, so no problems there. This year? LSU and then a bunch of 1-loss teams.
I think Bama and OK St should play each other in a couple weeks to play for the right to play LSU in champ game. Either way, I think it'd end up being Bama/LSU for the title.
11/23/2011
The Views from Vegas: Observations Finally Put to Words After Vegas VI
Another Vegas trip is in the books. Another couple hundred dollars down the drain - and I loved every minute of it.
From Jen making her first sports bets, including one on her own, to the delicious food and buffets we had, I enjoyed Vegas as I always do.
I've always had these observations and thoughts before about Vegas, but haven't put them into words until now. Here goes nothing:
(1.) Everyone at the sports book bets the favorites. I pointed this out to Jen, and even she started to notice this as well. Out of my 6 bets, 5 of them were on underdogs - funny enough, the only favorite I bet was my boys in San Fran laying 10 points, which they held on to cover. So it helped that I noticed it most in this scenario. The reason why Vegas wins so much money every year is that they set lines at such a consistent and balanced rate of favorites and underdogs covering spreads.
According to Covers.com, favorites are 77-76-7 this season against the spread. Also, home teams are 76-77-7 against the spread. Even my theory on betting against road favorites has a similar record around 50% (25-24-2). Most years, this number hovers around 50%, and since people need to win around 52-53% to break even if they bet the same each game (i.e. flat bet), Vegas wins.
I saw a lot of people rooting on the favorites, rooting every single score and first down for the favorites. A pair of guys next to me - sounded New Yorkish based on their accents - were rooting on one of their pools in which they went perfect in the first set of games for a Vegas contest in picking teams straight up. All he needed was Atlanta, Chicago, San Fran and St. Louis to come in to end the afternoon games perfect (all favorites). The first set of games featured only one team (Oakland) that was considered an underdog by Vegas standards. I'm just guessing, but with the lack of upsets there were at that point, a perfect record is probably shared by about 100 people.
Anyways, what was I getting at? Oh yeah, Vegas rules. At both setting lines and providing a good time.
(2.) Vegas is exactly like how Chappelle Show depicts "The Internet".
In case you are not familiar with this skit, here it is:
This is exactly how Vegas is allllllll the time. From left to right, up the escalators and down, you get hounded and raped by people trying to sell something. They get right in your face, trying to sell you on some show or strip club. You can't avoid them, even when you're in the hotel you're staying at and approaching the elevator.
This is probably the most annoying feature of Vegas. I understand most of Vegas is tourists and you need to find a way to sell your product - and often face-to-face is the best way to do it. I just wish I could go 5 feet without a piece of paper being thrown in my face about some club I will never go to.
(3.) People don't know how to walk. A common occurrence in Vegas goes as such. Person A is with Person B about 30 feet away from me. One of them stops, trying to figure out where they want to go next. One of them points. They stand there for another second or two. Then as we get to within a foot of them, they decide where they want to go and either cut us off or walk deathly slow in front of us.
Lord knows I have a city walk that I can't get rid of. I got yelled at a few times for walking too fast, but I had to tell her I can't help it...it's just the way I walk. But for as fast as I walk, there are some people who walk twice as slow as the national average of walkers*. These people all go to Vegas.
*National Average is about 4 miles per hour. No need to look it up.
(4.) If you ask someone if they've ever been to Vegas and they answer, "Not since I was a kid," they've never been to Vegas. For anyone who has ever been to Vegas, you know this to be the ultimate truth. When you're a teenager, the only things you can really experience in Vegas involve meals and shows of the PG-13 kind or weaker. Not only that, but you're likely with your parents or someone else in a position of authority. And what fun is that in Vegas? You need to be able to gamble a little and imbibe on some adult beverages to enjoy the true Vegas. Sure, you can get away with not gambling and not drinking while you're in Vegas, but if you're gonna do that, why not just go somewhere closer and more local?
This brings me to my next point....
(5.) When (or If) I have kids, I will NEVER bring them to Vegas. I can't stress this enough. I saw a bunch of people with their kids at the Bellagio buffet (or The Buffet as they call it)* and also walking the strip. I can't think of the many reasons it is wrong to bring kids to Vegas, but I'll attempt to.
(a) Not old enough to appreciate Vegas - See Point 4 above
(b) It's Sin City for a reason. Do you really want your kids exposed to those folks who are hawking the strip club cards and others who are so drunk they can't even spell their own names**?
(c) They take away from your fun. What adult really wants to have a PG-rated Vegas trip? If I can't gamble, go to the sports book and enjoy a few beverages, then it's not Vegas to me.
I'm sure there's more that I'm forgetting, but I think I made my point. If you bring your kids to Vegas and have fun nonetheless (and aren't BSing me because you think your spouse reads this blog)***, please tell me to disprove my point.
Any who, these are just some things I've thought of. Any frequent visitors of Vegas, please feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.
*The Ohio State University is shameful in its use of "The". Contrarily, The Buffet is being modest.
**Just guessing. I've never been this drunk, but in Vegas, people are dumb enough to get this drunk
***Awfully full of myself to think that married couples read this crap, but figured I'd insert this nonetheless.
Vegas Results:
NFL bets: 3-3 record, -$105
Roulette: 2 sessions, -$150
Horse bets: 2 horses bet, 2 losses: -$40
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving
Detroit +6, Mia/Dal Over 45, Balt/SF Under 40
From Jen making her first sports bets, including one on her own, to the delicious food and buffets we had, I enjoyed Vegas as I always do.
I've always had these observations and thoughts before about Vegas, but haven't put them into words until now. Here goes nothing:
(1.) Everyone at the sports book bets the favorites. I pointed this out to Jen, and even she started to notice this as well. Out of my 6 bets, 5 of them were on underdogs - funny enough, the only favorite I bet was my boys in San Fran laying 10 points, which they held on to cover. So it helped that I noticed it most in this scenario. The reason why Vegas wins so much money every year is that they set lines at such a consistent and balanced rate of favorites and underdogs covering spreads.
 |
| One of my 6 bets (and my largest winner), a bet that was unpopular with Public folks that like to bet on the favorites. |
According to Covers.com, favorites are 77-76-7 this season against the spread. Also, home teams are 76-77-7 against the spread. Even my theory on betting against road favorites has a similar record around 50% (25-24-2). Most years, this number hovers around 50%, and since people need to win around 52-53% to break even if they bet the same each game (i.e. flat bet), Vegas wins.
I saw a lot of people rooting on the favorites, rooting every single score and first down for the favorites. A pair of guys next to me - sounded New Yorkish based on their accents - were rooting on one of their pools in which they went perfect in the first set of games for a Vegas contest in picking teams straight up. All he needed was Atlanta, Chicago, San Fran and St. Louis to come in to end the afternoon games perfect (all favorites). The first set of games featured only one team (Oakland) that was considered an underdog by Vegas standards. I'm just guessing, but with the lack of upsets there were at that point, a perfect record is probably shared by about 100 people.
Anyways, what was I getting at? Oh yeah, Vegas rules. At both setting lines and providing a good time.
(2.) Vegas is exactly like how Chappelle Show depicts "The Internet".
In case you are not familiar with this skit, here it is:
This is exactly how Vegas is allllllll the time. From left to right, up the escalators and down, you get hounded and raped by people trying to sell something. They get right in your face, trying to sell you on some show or strip club. You can't avoid them, even when you're in the hotel you're staying at and approaching the elevator.
This is probably the most annoying feature of Vegas. I understand most of Vegas is tourists and you need to find a way to sell your product - and often face-to-face is the best way to do it. I just wish I could go 5 feet without a piece of paper being thrown in my face about some club I will never go to.
(3.) People don't know how to walk. A common occurrence in Vegas goes as such. Person A is with Person B about 30 feet away from me. One of them stops, trying to figure out where they want to go next. One of them points. They stand there for another second or two. Then as we get to within a foot of them, they decide where they want to go and either cut us off or walk deathly slow in front of us.
Lord knows I have a city walk that I can't get rid of. I got yelled at a few times for walking too fast, but I had to tell her I can't help it...it's just the way I walk. But for as fast as I walk, there are some people who walk twice as slow as the national average of walkers*. These people all go to Vegas.
*National Average is about 4 miles per hour. No need to look it up.
(4.) If you ask someone if they've ever been to Vegas and they answer, "Not since I was a kid," they've never been to Vegas. For anyone who has ever been to Vegas, you know this to be the ultimate truth. When you're a teenager, the only things you can really experience in Vegas involve meals and shows of the PG-13 kind or weaker. Not only that, but you're likely with your parents or someone else in a position of authority. And what fun is that in Vegas? You need to be able to gamble a little and imbibe on some adult beverages to enjoy the true Vegas. Sure, you can get away with not gambling and not drinking while you're in Vegas, but if you're gonna do that, why not just go somewhere closer and more local?
This brings me to my next point....
(5.) When (or If) I have kids, I will NEVER bring them to Vegas. I can't stress this enough. I saw a bunch of people with their kids at the Bellagio buffet (or The Buffet as they call it)* and also walking the strip. I can't think of the many reasons it is wrong to bring kids to Vegas, but I'll attempt to.
(a) Not old enough to appreciate Vegas - See Point 4 above
(b) It's Sin City for a reason. Do you really want your kids exposed to those folks who are hawking the strip club cards and others who are so drunk they can't even spell their own names**?
(c) They take away from your fun. What adult really wants to have a PG-rated Vegas trip? If I can't gamble, go to the sports book and enjoy a few beverages, then it's not Vegas to me.
I'm sure there's more that I'm forgetting, but I think I made my point. If you bring your kids to Vegas and have fun nonetheless (and aren't BSing me because you think your spouse reads this blog)***, please tell me to disprove my point.
Any who, these are just some things I've thought of. Any frequent visitors of Vegas, please feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.
*The Ohio State University is shameful in its use of "The". Contrarily, The Buffet is being modest.
**Just guessing. I've never been this drunk, but in Vegas, people are dumb enough to get this drunk
***Awfully full of myself to think that married couples read this crap, but figured I'd insert this nonetheless.
Vegas Results:
NFL bets: 3-3 record, -$105
Roulette: 2 sessions, -$150
Horse bets: 2 horses bet, 2 losses: -$40
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving
Detroit +6, Mia/Dal Over 45, Balt/SF Under 40
11/18/2011
Thanks-Filled: What This Guy is Thankful For
With less than a week till Thanksgiving, we all have something to be thankful for. More importantly, we all have someone or many someones to be thankful for.
Some things to be thankful for:
Life - Hey, I'm still living and breathing as I type this, so I have to be thankful for that. Without it, I don't know you, and you don't know me. Maybe you don't want to know me - but tough.
Family - Granted, it's a collection of someones. But I think that lumping the family together is appropriate given what they do for me as a collective unit. I love my family - which yes, includes pets - and they love me back. There's no questioning this. I couldn't live without them. This includes immediate and otherwise.
Friends - I could probably leave this category out, since many of my friends have turned into family and are actually embraced as family by my own family. I feel like I'm in several families myself with the friends that I have gotten to know over the years. On one hand, you get a family based on birth, which is your real family. Once you grow older, this is when you pick your extended family (your friends). In both cases, my extended family and my real family are big parts of me and define who I am. I've always believed that the friends you have are a true reflection of who you are as a person. I have great friends, and I am a greater man because of it.
Employment - In this day and age, it can't be understated how good it is to have a steady job that pays the bills. I work with a great company with a great boss who has my back and appreciates the work that I do. In March, I will be going to Costa Rica on a company trip with these folks. I'm really happy to be with this company and the people who are in it.
Sports - Everyone who knows me and reads this blog knows of my passion for sports. Ever since I was the age of 5 or 6, I've been a sports nut. I'd wake up early even in grade school and watch the 30 minute Sportscenter on repeat 4-5 times over before going to school. I've memorized & internalized an unhealthy amount of sports facts and trivia. However, as I have become an adult, I realize the true role that sports have in my life. They are a distraction, they provide us entertainment and pointless arguments. At the end of the day when the game is over, we still have our lives to live. We still have all of the above things I've mentioned to appreciate. So my fellow sports fans: never lose perspective on what sports provide to us and how they should be in our lives.
(Digression alert: I usually try avoiding arguments with people and sports though - when our teams lose, many people think they are smarter than the coaches and general managers and think we can hire better coaches and design better plays and strategies, when in fact we don't know a tenth of what these guys know)
There's probably plenty more to be thankful for, but most of it in my life can be traced to the above items.
Like my reflection on Veterans last week, make sure that today and beyond, you appeciate and be thankful for everything good that is around you. Our time in this world is limited, so don't spend it being angry or upset.
Some things to be thankful for:
Life - Hey, I'm still living and breathing as I type this, so I have to be thankful for that. Without it, I don't know you, and you don't know me. Maybe you don't want to know me - but tough.
Family - Granted, it's a collection of someones. But I think that lumping the family together is appropriate given what they do for me as a collective unit. I love my family - which yes, includes pets - and they love me back. There's no questioning this. I couldn't live without them. This includes immediate and otherwise.
Friends - I could probably leave this category out, since many of my friends have turned into family and are actually embraced as family by my own family. I feel like I'm in several families myself with the friends that I have gotten to know over the years. On one hand, you get a family based on birth, which is your real family. Once you grow older, this is when you pick your extended family (your friends). In both cases, my extended family and my real family are big parts of me and define who I am. I've always believed that the friends you have are a true reflection of who you are as a person. I have great friends, and I am a greater man because of it.
Employment - In this day and age, it can't be understated how good it is to have a steady job that pays the bills. I work with a great company with a great boss who has my back and appreciates the work that I do. In March, I will be going to Costa Rica on a company trip with these folks. I'm really happy to be with this company and the people who are in it.
Sports - Everyone who knows me and reads this blog knows of my passion for sports. Ever since I was the age of 5 or 6, I've been a sports nut. I'd wake up early even in grade school and watch the 30 minute Sportscenter on repeat 4-5 times over before going to school. I've memorized & internalized an unhealthy amount of sports facts and trivia. However, as I have become an adult, I realize the true role that sports have in my life. They are a distraction, they provide us entertainment and pointless arguments. At the end of the day when the game is over, we still have our lives to live. We still have all of the above things I've mentioned to appreciate. So my fellow sports fans: never lose perspective on what sports provide to us and how they should be in our lives.
(Digression alert: I usually try avoiding arguments with people and sports though - when our teams lose, many people think they are smarter than the coaches and general managers and think we can hire better coaches and design better plays and strategies, when in fact we don't know a tenth of what these guys know)
There's probably plenty more to be thankful for, but most of it in my life can be traced to the above items.
Like my reflection on Veterans last week, make sure that today and beyond, you appeciate and be thankful for everything good that is around you. Our time in this world is limited, so don't spend it being angry or upset.
11/17/2011
LV Part VI: Scratching the Vegas Itch Again
About every five or six months in the past 3-4 years, there's this mosquito that keeps biting the living hell out of me.
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
 |
| Sin City Revisited in T-minus-68 hours |
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
| Week 10 | Week 11 |
| NFL 3-5, -$21 | NCAA 1-4-1, -$200 |
| Totals 2-1, $204 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-1, -$50 |
| Spreads 1-4, -$225 | Spreads 1-3-1, -$150 |
| YTD: 38-32-3, $514.70 | YTD: 19-30-1, -$468 |
| Totals: 13-10-1, $416.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-6, -$310 |
| Spreads: 21-20-2, -$104 | Spreads: 16-16-1, $97 |
11/16/2011
Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term
 |
| Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term |
Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.
However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.
Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.
Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.
It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.
Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.
Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.
For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.
A-Rod's Stats:
Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.
It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.
That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.
To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)