With less than a week till Thanksgiving, we all have something to be thankful for. More importantly, we all have someone or many someones to be thankful for.
Some things to be thankful for:
Life - Hey, I'm still living and breathing as I type this, so I have to be thankful for that. Without it, I don't know you, and you don't know me. Maybe you don't want to know me - but tough.
Family - Granted, it's a collection of someones. But I think that lumping the family together is appropriate given what they do for me as a collective unit. I love my family - which yes, includes pets - and they love me back. There's no questioning this. I couldn't live without them. This includes immediate and otherwise.
Friends - I could probably leave this category out, since many of my friends have turned into family and are actually embraced as family by my own family. I feel like I'm in several families myself with the friends that I have gotten to know over the years. On one hand, you get a family based on birth, which is your real family. Once you grow older, this is when you pick your extended family (your friends). In both cases, my extended family and my real family are big parts of me and define who I am. I've always believed that the friends you have are a true reflection of who you are as a person. I have great friends, and I am a greater man because of it.
Employment - In this day and age, it can't be understated how good it is to have a steady job that pays the bills. I work with a great company with a great boss who has my back and appreciates the work that I do. In March, I will be going to Costa Rica on a company trip with these folks. I'm really happy to be with this company and the people who are in it.
Sports - Everyone who knows me and reads this blog knows of my passion for sports. Ever since I was the age of 5 or 6, I've been a sports nut. I'd wake up early even in grade school and watch the 30 minute Sportscenter on repeat 4-5 times over before going to school. I've memorized & internalized an unhealthy amount of sports facts and trivia. However, as I have become an adult, I realize the true role that sports have in my life. They are a distraction, they provide us entertainment and pointless arguments. At the end of the day when the game is over, we still have our lives to live. We still have all of the above things I've mentioned to appreciate. So my fellow sports fans: never lose perspective on what sports provide to us and how they should be in our lives.
(Digression alert: I usually try avoiding arguments with people and sports though - when our teams lose, many people think they are smarter than the coaches and general managers and think we can hire better coaches and design better plays and strategies, when in fact we don't know a tenth of what these guys know)
There's probably plenty more to be thankful for, but most of it in my life can be traced to the above items.
Like my reflection on Veterans last week, make sure that today and beyond, you appeciate and be thankful for everything good that is around you. Our time in this world is limited, so don't spend it being angry or upset.
11/17/2011
LV Part VI: Scratching the Vegas Itch Again
About every five or six months in the past 3-4 years, there's this mosquito that keeps biting the living hell out of me.
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
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| Sin City Revisited in T-minus-68 hours |
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
| Week 10 | Week 11 |
| NFL 3-5, -$21 | NCAA 1-4-1, -$200 |
| Totals 2-1, $204 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-1, -$50 |
| Spreads 1-4, -$225 | Spreads 1-3-1, -$150 |
| YTD: 38-32-3, $514.70 | YTD: 19-30-1, -$468 |
| Totals: 13-10-1, $416.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-6, -$310 |
| Spreads: 21-20-2, -$104 | Spreads: 16-16-1, $97 |
11/16/2011
Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term
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| Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term |
Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.
However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.
Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.
Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.
It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.
Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.
Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.
For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.
A-Rod's Stats:
Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.
It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.
That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.
To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.
11/11/2011
Veteran's Day: Remembering Grandpa Raynor & Others Around Me
Ask everyone on my mom's side of the family, and you'll get a lot of the same answers when asked on how to best describe my Grandpa Raynor.
From my memories of him, he was very much to himself, very serious man whose idea of a joke was asking you which hair you got cut when you mentioned that you just got a haircut or telling you that denial was a river.
He often had things go against him, particularly around vacation time. One time, fishing poles in the car were mistaken as guns, as his car got surrounded by law enforcement as we were about to depart for our annual trip to Michigan. Another trip, "The Lugnut" story is remembered by everyone in the family, where a loose lugnut caused hell for Gramps not only in lack of space in the van, but harrassment over the CB radio when random family members would shout "Lugnut" into the device.
However, the one memory I have that sticks with me dates back about 15 or so years ago on this date. Three simple words that I said to my grandpa that forever changed how I think of him.
"Happy Veteran's Day".
Simple words, yes. But very powerful. My grandpa was in the Forgotten War in Korea in the 1950s. It is forgotten in the history books when compared to the wars that surround it. America's consciousness focuses on WWII and Vietnam as the Wars, not so much Korea.
I remember seeing my grandpa smile when I said this as a teenager. He hardly ever smiled.
Which is why I ask this of my readers: Instead of saying a blanket Facebook statement thanking veterans for what they did, do whatever you can to contact them (either on the phone or in person) and thank them in a more personal manner.
People these days don't get enough personal contact with messages like this, so do what you can to contact these people and thank them for their service to our country and not in some distant Facebook status.
Who knows, you may have a Grandpa Raynor moment yourself and make a Veteran smile.
To my Grandpa, Uncle Bob, cousin Tony and all my friends who served, thank you. Whether we agree with the wars that we are in or not, it is our duty to support these folks who fight for America.
From my memories of him, he was very much to himself, very serious man whose idea of a joke was asking you which hair you got cut when you mentioned that you just got a haircut or telling you that denial was a river.
He often had things go against him, particularly around vacation time. One time, fishing poles in the car were mistaken as guns, as his car got surrounded by law enforcement as we were about to depart for our annual trip to Michigan. Another trip, "The Lugnut" story is remembered by everyone in the family, where a loose lugnut caused hell for Gramps not only in lack of space in the van, but harrassment over the CB radio when random family members would shout "Lugnut" into the device.
However, the one memory I have that sticks with me dates back about 15 or so years ago on this date. Three simple words that I said to my grandpa that forever changed how I think of him.
"Happy Veteran's Day".
Simple words, yes. But very powerful. My grandpa was in the Forgotten War in Korea in the 1950s. It is forgotten in the history books when compared to the wars that surround it. America's consciousness focuses on WWII and Vietnam as the Wars, not so much Korea.
I remember seeing my grandpa smile when I said this as a teenager. He hardly ever smiled.
Which is why I ask this of my readers: Instead of saying a blanket Facebook statement thanking veterans for what they did, do whatever you can to contact them (either on the phone or in person) and thank them in a more personal manner.
People these days don't get enough personal contact with messages like this, so do what you can to contact these people and thank them for their service to our country and not in some distant Facebook status.
Who knows, you may have a Grandpa Raynor moment yourself and make a Veteran smile.
To my Grandpa, Uncle Bob, cousin Tony and all my friends who served, thank you. Whether we agree with the wars that we are in or not, it is our duty to support these folks who fight for America.
The Niner Points in Life
Ahhhh, it's been a while, but for the first time in close to a decade, I know what it feels like to be a fan of a good football team.
The last time I was in this position, I had yet to reach legal drinking age (emphasis on legal).
The last time I was here, Terrell Owens was still on his first team (not attempting to join his 6th or 7th team) and was dominating his position like no other.
Since we last experienced playoff football, we have had the likes of Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Chris Weinke, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith leading our teams to mediocre seasons at best, and outright unwatchable seasons at their very worst.
Joe Montana and Steve Young took more talented dumps than these guys.
Playing Har-baugh
So with no radical changes to the 2010 team, why is this team sitting at 7-1 and already 5 games up in its division?
Look no further than the new coach for the dramatic change.
Harbaugh is doing things with the Niners that would make Criss Angel blush. He's turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback. Smith is still not a guy I'd bank on long-term (or even to lead us to championship game/Super Bowl appearances), but for this season, he has cut down on his mistakes and has actually led the Niners to several 4th quarter comebacks - all on the road (Bengals, Eagles, Lions - all talented/playoff-caliber teams).
In fact, the Niners are a fantastic 4-0 away from San Francisco, and we have yet to play any of our weak division on the road yet. With the disparity in the division based on the Niners record and the rest of the division, you'd say that we should win all of those games (5 division games left), but realistically, I expect 3-2 or 4-1 record, as upsets are not that uncommon.
Down The Road: New Expectations
Having said this, I feel like the Niners have over a 50/50 shot at getting a first-round bye this year. A 12-4 record wouldn't shock me with the remaining schedule, and I think the Giants and Saints/Falcons will end up with 11-5 records at best. This week's game against NYG will go a long way in determining their seeding.
I don't think they'll win more than a game in the playoffs, but the fact that we are talking about the playoffs is an amazing leap that I did not expect. I hope I'm wrong about this and we're talking about San Fran still playing in February - but for now, I'll enjoy this current run they're on and hope it continues into the winter months.
The fact that I am discussing going to San Fran some weekend in January with the g/f makes me happy for several reasons: (1) that I have a g/f I can make tentative plans with two months in advance and (2) the Niners being a playoff quality team.
I remain reserved about the Niners' chances, but for how way off I was about them entering this year, I can't really complain with what happens from here.
The last time I was in this position, I had yet to reach legal drinking age (emphasis on legal).
The last time I was here, Terrell Owens was still on his first team (not attempting to join his 6th or 7th team) and was dominating his position like no other.
Since we last experienced playoff football, we have had the likes of Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Chris Weinke, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith leading our teams to mediocre seasons at best, and outright unwatchable seasons at their very worst.
Joe Montana and Steve Young took more talented dumps than these guys.
Playing Har-baugh
So with no radical changes to the 2010 team, why is this team sitting at 7-1 and already 5 games up in its division?
Look no further than the new coach for the dramatic change.
Harbaugh is doing things with the Niners that would make Criss Angel blush. He's turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback. Smith is still not a guy I'd bank on long-term (or even to lead us to championship game/Super Bowl appearances), but for this season, he has cut down on his mistakes and has actually led the Niners to several 4th quarter comebacks - all on the road (Bengals, Eagles, Lions - all talented/playoff-caliber teams).
In fact, the Niners are a fantastic 4-0 away from San Francisco, and we have yet to play any of our weak division on the road yet. With the disparity in the division based on the Niners record and the rest of the division, you'd say that we should win all of those games (5 division games left), but realistically, I expect 3-2 or 4-1 record, as upsets are not that uncommon.
Down The Road: New Expectations
Having said this, I feel like the Niners have over a 50/50 shot at getting a first-round bye this year. A 12-4 record wouldn't shock me with the remaining schedule, and I think the Giants and Saints/Falcons will end up with 11-5 records at best. This week's game against NYG will go a long way in determining their seeding.
I don't think they'll win more than a game in the playoffs, but the fact that we are talking about the playoffs is an amazing leap that I did not expect. I hope I'm wrong about this and we're talking about San Fran still playing in February - but for now, I'll enjoy this current run they're on and hope it continues into the winter months.
The fact that I am discussing going to San Fran some weekend in January with the g/f makes me happy for several reasons: (1) that I have a g/f I can make tentative plans with two months in advance and (2) the Niners being a playoff quality team.
I remain reserved about the Niners' chances, but for how way off I was about them entering this year, I can't really complain with what happens from here.
11/10/2011
Thank God It's Thursday: Return of Mid-Week NFL & Predictions for NFL/NCAA
Welcome back Thursday Night Football. Those of us who have been following the Penn St. scandal greatly appreciate your presence, if only for a three-hour period.
Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.
The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.
Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.
Penn St Update
I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.
I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.
I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.
Fools Gold, Week 10
Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).
Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.
Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5
Week 10 action
San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.
NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.
NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.
Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.
NCAA picks
Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.
Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game
Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan
Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.
The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.
Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.
Penn St Update
I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.
I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.
I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.
Fools Gold, Week 10
Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).
Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.
Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5
Week 10 action
San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.
NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.
NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.
Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.
NCAA picks
Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.
Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game
Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan
| Week 9 | Week 10 |
| NFL 4-2, $97.50 | NCAA 3-7, -$104 |
| Totals 1-1, -$7.50 | Totals 1-4, -$95 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 3-1, $105 | Spreads 2-3, -$9 |
| YTD: 35-27-3, $535.70 | YTD: 18-26-1, -$268 |
| Totals: 11-9-1, $212.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-5, -$260 |
| Spreads: 20-16-2, $121 | Spreads: 15-13, $247 |
11/09/2011
From Penn State to the State Pen: Thoughts on the PSU Scandal
Many things in life have a gray area when it comes to ethical and moral standards.
For instance, do you steal a loaf of bread for your starving family if you have no means of paying for it?
Do you pull the plug on someone who is terminally ill and has no quality of life?
Things like these, among many others, can provide reasonable arguments on both side of the issue.
However, child molestation is not one of them. Being an accessory to it (seeing something and not reporting it) is just as bad as the act itself, perhaps even worse if the person who commits the act keeps on doing it to other youth as a result of the original acts not being reported.
This whole Penn State mess can (and probably will) have tons of books that cover this issue in a more in-depth manner. What I've just finished reading is a very disturbing account of the 8 victims of Jerry Sandusky's that were spoken of at the grand jury of the case in late 2010. Feel free to read it, but be warned that this report has graphic descriptions of acts that were committed: Sandusky case
There are several individuals mentioned in the testimony that directly observed the actions of the former Penn State defensive coordinator, including a graduate assistant for the football team. According to the grand jury report, the GA told Joe Paterno at his home about the incident and then later told some other higher-ups (to which those gentlemen have been charged with perjury for lying under oath about never having heard this information presented to them). However, one call was never placed - to the authorities.
Whether the authorities would take the allegations seriously (because of the power that Penn St. football has in the community) is a moot point. An effort has to be made by someone witnessing a crime of such horrible magnitude, especially one involving a helpless victim such as a child.
What's Happened Since the Scandal Broke
Many believe that the president of the university (mentioned in the report) will be resigning or fired from his post shortly. He has had only one comment on record since the news broke 3-4 days ago, and shockingly, it was a comment that put his unwavering support for the two gentlemen who committed perjury as they were doing all they could to save the face of Penn State football.
The grad assistant who saw the actions of one of the rapes is getting a lot of heat for not reporting what he saw to authorities, which I outlined above. While he reported the issue to the people above him, he failed to contact authorities. For this, I find his reaction (or inaction) to be despicable.
Joe Paterno has gone on record today saying that he will retire at the end of the year. He brashly stated that the Board of Trustees shouldn't waste their time on his status, seeing as though they had more important issues to deal with. His fate for Saturday and beyond is to be determined, but at the very least (assuming he doesn't pull a Favre), we will not see Paterno coach another college game after their presumed bowl game.
Joe's Role and What Should Be Done
There's no denying Joe Paterno's presence when you enter the Penn State vicinity. He has contributed nearly five decades of coaching to the program, providing tremendous amounts of time and money to the school. He's so revered, there was a statue built of him. From all accounts, outside of this incident, it appears that Joe Pa was the right face to represent the school.
However, you cannot ignore this incident and cannot ignore Joe Pa's inaction to the incidents at hand. To report this matter to your higher ups and no one else, especially when you're the face of the college (maybe even of the state), sets a bad precedent for the entire school.
No one at PSU is bigger than Paterno. He IS Penn State football. Hell, he IS Penn State to many people.
This is why he should never coach a single down of football at the school ever again. He is a symbol of what went wrong with this state institution. To let him coach Saturday and the remaining regular season and postseason games would be a slap in the face to the victims, particularly Saturday's home game against Nebraska. He'd likely have 100K strong on his side as his seniors play their last game at Beaver Stadium.
But what about the football players? Getting rid of the coach wouldn't be fair to them...Guess what? Their coach did something immoral. I feel bad for the players, who won't get to enjoy their Senior Day like many others across the nation get to. But when a clear violation of ethics is committed, you can't reward the violator by letting him dictate the terms of his dismissal - players or not. There's plenty of incidents in college sports where a current regime of players (currently USC) pays for the mistakes of previous coaches/players' mistakes. I don't think they should punish the current players by cancelling their games, but the person leading them in those games should NOT be Coach Paterno.
Some Final Thoughts
This whole story disgusts me, and it should disgust you too. I'm disgusted by not only the actions of Sandusky and those around him that failed to report the incidents in a timely matter, but also the people who can completely ignore the incident and sweep it under the rug because of how they've turned Paterno into a God at the college. Reactions by people who fully support Penn State, its coaches and staff after this incident are either people who have no kids (and thus, could not understand what it would be like to think of their kid being raped) or are completely blinded by someone they built to be a dictator of morality and everything else at Penn State.
I don't see how there could be gray area on this subject. While I do not have any children, I think of my younger cousins and young people around me and couldn't imagine how angry I would be if they were raped or molested. I think of how I might be as a father and how I might be in prison right now if someone did this to my kid.
I hear former players and some coaches spewing a bunch of crap on the matter and they all seem to support Joe Pa to the point where they think he should finish the season out. This is the typical response from athletes in controversial matters involving one of their own. If their kids had been the ones to be molested and Paterno failed to report it, you better believe they would be up in arms about him being able to finish out his coaching career in 2011.
Many alumni and fans of the team are unsure what to make of this. I have a few PSU fans - both regular readers of the blog - and they both expressed disgust over the matter. One of them just went to Beaver Stadium on Halloween weekend to watch PSU's 3-point win over Illinois, and he seems to still be processing the information and where he should go from here with his fandom. I can't blame him for this and wonder myself how I would react if this happened to my school (Illinois) or perhaps with one of the professional teams that I consider myself a fan of.
I'll leave you with one final thought: If you're wondering how you should react to this story (as if there should be a way other than complete disgust), just think - how would you feel if this was your nephew or niece, son or daughter?
For instance, do you steal a loaf of bread for your starving family if you have no means of paying for it?
Do you pull the plug on someone who is terminally ill and has no quality of life?
Things like these, among many others, can provide reasonable arguments on both side of the issue.
However, child molestation is not one of them. Being an accessory to it (seeing something and not reporting it) is just as bad as the act itself, perhaps even worse if the person who commits the act keeps on doing it to other youth as a result of the original acts not being reported.
This whole Penn State mess can (and probably will) have tons of books that cover this issue in a more in-depth manner. What I've just finished reading is a very disturbing account of the 8 victims of Jerry Sandusky's that were spoken of at the grand jury of the case in late 2010. Feel free to read it, but be warned that this report has graphic descriptions of acts that were committed: Sandusky case
There are several individuals mentioned in the testimony that directly observed the actions of the former Penn State defensive coordinator, including a graduate assistant for the football team. According to the grand jury report, the GA told Joe Paterno at his home about the incident and then later told some other higher-ups (to which those gentlemen have been charged with perjury for lying under oath about never having heard this information presented to them). However, one call was never placed - to the authorities.
Whether the authorities would take the allegations seriously (because of the power that Penn St. football has in the community) is a moot point. An effort has to be made by someone witnessing a crime of such horrible magnitude, especially one involving a helpless victim such as a child.
What's Happened Since the Scandal Broke
Many believe that the president of the university (mentioned in the report) will be resigning or fired from his post shortly. He has had only one comment on record since the news broke 3-4 days ago, and shockingly, it was a comment that put his unwavering support for the two gentlemen who committed perjury as they were doing all they could to save the face of Penn State football.
The grad assistant who saw the actions of one of the rapes is getting a lot of heat for not reporting what he saw to authorities, which I outlined above. While he reported the issue to the people above him, he failed to contact authorities. For this, I find his reaction (or inaction) to be despicable.
Joe Paterno has gone on record today saying that he will retire at the end of the year. He brashly stated that the Board of Trustees shouldn't waste their time on his status, seeing as though they had more important issues to deal with. His fate for Saturday and beyond is to be determined, but at the very least (assuming he doesn't pull a Favre), we will not see Paterno coach another college game after their presumed bowl game.
Joe's Role and What Should Be Done
There's no denying Joe Paterno's presence when you enter the Penn State vicinity. He has contributed nearly five decades of coaching to the program, providing tremendous amounts of time and money to the school. He's so revered, there was a statue built of him. From all accounts, outside of this incident, it appears that Joe Pa was the right face to represent the school.
However, you cannot ignore this incident and cannot ignore Joe Pa's inaction to the incidents at hand. To report this matter to your higher ups and no one else, especially when you're the face of the college (maybe even of the state), sets a bad precedent for the entire school.
No one at PSU is bigger than Paterno. He IS Penn State football. Hell, he IS Penn State to many people.
This is why he should never coach a single down of football at the school ever again. He is a symbol of what went wrong with this state institution. To let him coach Saturday and the remaining regular season and postseason games would be a slap in the face to the victims, particularly Saturday's home game against Nebraska. He'd likely have 100K strong on his side as his seniors play their last game at Beaver Stadium.
But what about the football players? Getting rid of the coach wouldn't be fair to them...Guess what? Their coach did something immoral. I feel bad for the players, who won't get to enjoy their Senior Day like many others across the nation get to. But when a clear violation of ethics is committed, you can't reward the violator by letting him dictate the terms of his dismissal - players or not. There's plenty of incidents in college sports where a current regime of players (currently USC) pays for the mistakes of previous coaches/players' mistakes. I don't think they should punish the current players by cancelling their games, but the person leading them in those games should NOT be Coach Paterno.
Some Final Thoughts
This whole story disgusts me, and it should disgust you too. I'm disgusted by not only the actions of Sandusky and those around him that failed to report the incidents in a timely matter, but also the people who can completely ignore the incident and sweep it under the rug because of how they've turned Paterno into a God at the college. Reactions by people who fully support Penn State, its coaches and staff after this incident are either people who have no kids (and thus, could not understand what it would be like to think of their kid being raped) or are completely blinded by someone they built to be a dictator of morality and everything else at Penn State.
I don't see how there could be gray area on this subject. While I do not have any children, I think of my younger cousins and young people around me and couldn't imagine how angry I would be if they were raped or molested. I think of how I might be as a father and how I might be in prison right now if someone did this to my kid.
I hear former players and some coaches spewing a bunch of crap on the matter and they all seem to support Joe Pa to the point where they think he should finish the season out. This is the typical response from athletes in controversial matters involving one of their own. If their kids had been the ones to be molested and Paterno failed to report it, you better believe they would be up in arms about him being able to finish out his coaching career in 2011.
Many alumni and fans of the team are unsure what to make of this. I have a few PSU fans - both regular readers of the blog - and they both expressed disgust over the matter. One of them just went to Beaver Stadium on Halloween weekend to watch PSU's 3-point win over Illinois, and he seems to still be processing the information and where he should go from here with his fandom. I can't blame him for this and wonder myself how I would react if this happened to my school (Illinois) or perhaps with one of the professional teams that I consider myself a fan of.
I'll leave you with one final thought: If you're wondering how you should react to this story (as if there should be a way other than complete disgust), just think - how would you feel if this was your nephew or niece, son or daughter?
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