A Look Back (and Look Ahead) at MLB thru All-Star Break

Many of you (based on blog views) read my MLB preview back in February in which I gave some of my predictions. Here it is again in case you want to take a look at it. Another blog I wrote featured a few more daring predictions: check that out here. I like to look back at my predictions, no matter how good or bad they are.

First, the Good predictions:

• Dunn will return to a 30+ HR hitter. He's only a few away from that mark. Granted, his average sucks, but he is seeing the ball better (much better OBP - which is what he is known for).
• One long-shot will win a division. Jury is still out on this, but according to the numbers I posted in March from what they were on 5dimes, the Pirates (30/1 to win NL Central), Mets (55/1 to win NL East), Orioles (110/1 to win AL East - yes, that high of odds - not a misprint), & the White Sox (12/1) are all in reasonable spots to contend in the second half of the season for their divisions. There's a chance none of these teams will win their division, but the fact remains - there's usually at least a few teams that come absolutely out of nowhere to make a surprising playoff run (or at the very least, threaten to make the playoffs).
• Nationals predicament w/ Strasburg. His inning limit is set in stone apparently. He has pitched 99 of his allotted 160-170 innings for the year, and yes, like I thought, the Nationals are in playoff contention. If this limit includes the playoffs, I think he's going to need to skip a few starts the rest of the year. 79 more team games would mean about 15-16 more starts if they stick with a 5 man rotation. 60-70 more innings in that time, wouldn't even be pitching more than 5 innings per game. Not sure of their minor league depth, but perhaps they could go to a 6-man rotation at a certain point. I would not want to have Strasburg sit if I'm a Nationals fan, but given the choice, I'd rather have him sit (or spread his starts out) now rather than later.
• Chris Sale as the best pitcher in the Sox rotation. I said that he would be the best by the end of the year, so I'm ahead of schedule. Peavy started off hotter than Sale, but the lefty has definitely left his mark as the future ace of the staff. I hope the Sox brass ensures that we don't overuse Sale now at the risk of a year-long injury in the near future (Wood, Strasburg, etc.). I know this sounds blasphemous, but Sale has the look of a younger Randy Johnson when he throws his wicked southpaw heat.
• AL HR leader: Jose Bautista (w/ Adam Dunn as listed sleeper); Al Cy Young: David Price; NL HR champ: Mike Stanton (Bruce as sleeper) - all have a fighters chance in those respective races. Except Mike is no longer Stanton's first name. Does that count against me?

Now, the Bad predictions

• Marlins winning a World Series - seems a little far fetched. I don't think they'll even finish about .500 at this point, yet alone win a World Series. Many of the stars on the team have underachieved. The defense behind the pitching has been awful. Chalk this one up as a loss for yours truly.
• Detroit Tigers running away w/ the AL Central. Many people had this one wrong as well. The Tigers could go on a great run to end the season and win by 10+ like they did last year, but I don't see it happening. I, like many others, underestimated what the White Sox are capable of. I think it will come down to the last series with the White Sox taking the AL Central crown again.
• MVP choices: Miguel Cabrera in AL & Hanley Ramirez in NL. Way way off.
• NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay. See above.

Glad to see I hit more than I missed on these. Here's my revised picks for divisions and World Series:

AL East: NYY (original pick: NYY)

AL Central: Chi (original pick: Det)

AL West: Tex (original pick: Tex)

AL Wild Cards: Detroit & LAA (original picks: Rays & LAA)

NL East: Washington (original: Mia)

NL Central: StL (original: StL)

NL West: SF (original: SF)

NL Wild Cards: LA & Cin (Original: Wash & Phil)

ALCS: Rangers over White Sox (Original: Yanks over Tigers)

NLCS: Wash over SF (Original: Mia over SF)

WS: Rangers (FINALLY!) over Wash (Original: Mia over NYY)

Feel free to offer your own predictions as you see them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

MLB - Bold Predictions 2012

With baseball about to start, it's about time to make some predictions. I made some in my MLB preview last month, so here's some more.

• Adam Dunn will hit 30+ HRs once again - As my friend Nick mentioned to me yesterday, Dunn's numbers in 2011 could not have been predicted by anyone who studies baseball statistics for a living. His season really came out of nowhere, and for someone at his age (entered 2011 as a 31 year old), a sudden drop-off in numbers is quite rare. I'm dismissing the possible "steroids" angle that many suspect when numbers drop off drastically. Instead, I believe his appendix issue to start the year (where he had to have a surgery after the first week of the season) carried over into the season, which resulted in numbers that would have made 99% of major leaguers get demoted or booted out of baseball altogether. I believe we will see a happy medium between the 40 HR Dunn from the decade preceding 2011 and the craptacular version we saw last year.
• There will be at least one team who wins their division with division odds greater than 10/1 - Candidates for this include the NL Central (Cubs 21/1, Pirates 30/1, Astros 135/1), NL West (Padres 18/1), NL East (Mets 55/1), AL East (Blue Jays 12/1, Orioles 110/1) and AL Central (White Sox 12/1, Royals 14/1, Twins 17/1, Indians 90/1). All odds are from 5dimes. AL West odds are not available since two of their teams already played, but I'm willing to guess the two teams who did play (Athletics + Mariners) were both over 10/1. That means over 40% of teams are considered long shots to even make the playoffs. However, there's almost always one team that overachieves (i.e. Diamondbacks). I wouldn't be shocked (based on percentages) that it would be a team in the AL Central. The Tigers have a strong offense, but have a very suspect defense and some average arms behind last year's Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander. 
• The Nationals will be in a predicament in September. This first part is a big assumption. I have the Nationals pegged as a Wild Card team. Right now, they seem to be this sport's version of the Detroit Lions, where many experts are projecting postseason play for the first time in a long time. So what's going to be the issue? Two words: Stephen Strasburg. After coming off of Tommy John surgery, Strasburg is on a 160-innings pitched limit. I'd assume that includes the post season. If he stays healthy and doesn't miss a start...let's say he averages 6 innings a game. That would put him at 27 starts, assuming they go with a 5-man rotation the whole year. That would put them around the first or second week of September. Seems strange to make a guy your opening day starter but also cap his innings. The fan pressure may be too much to bench him for the year. I'm hoping (if they stick with this limit) that they skip his spot in the rotation several times and give a spot start to a minor leaguer. If they aren't in the division or wild card races, then shutting him down will be much easier to do.
• By the end of 2012, Chris Sale will be the White Sox best starting pitcher - We've seen what he can do in the bullpen. The Sox certainly didn't draft him to be in the bullpen though, so Adios to Buehrle, and a Hello to Sale. Expect corny Internet and newspaper headlines involving the southpaw's last name. For all of those syndicate newspapers that read my blog, here are some....you're welcome: Epic Sale; Setting Sale; At a Sale's Pace; Working on the Sale Road.
  
  Ok, I admit some of those are bad - but then again, so are a lot of headlines I read every day.
• The Marlins will win the World Series - I know Cubs fans feel depressed every time someone other than them wins it all, but even the White Sox, who almost moved to Florida in the mid 90s, have to feel a little ill that a team that has been around for less than 20 years already has two titles. If my prediction is correct, it would be 3. The Marlins aren't a huge underdog (20/1 odds puts them with the 8th best odds), but I consider it a bolder proclamation than saying the Yankees will win it all. As I mentioned in my MLB preview, I like their rotation, like their overall lineup better than anyone else in their division (Phillies included). I'd take the 20/1 odds but my friend who gives me access to the 5dimes site said our accounts are going to be shut down at the end of the NBA playoffs.
• *Future Prediction...The Cubs Will Win a World Series Before the White Sox Win Another - I am sold on Epstein as a winner and think he will get the North Siders going in the right direction a lot quicker than Kenny Williams will the White Sox. Epstein helped push Boston over the edge in 2004 and then again in 2007, mainly by building up their minor league system. Pieces they didn't use (i.e. Hanley Ramirez) were traded for pieces that helped win them World Series (i.e. Josh Beckett). I think a focus on better scouting, which involves some Sabermetrics (for those not in the know, think of the movie Moneyball), and not a heavy reliance on free agency (although every good team needs some good free agent signings) will help bring the Cubs back to the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. As far as the White Sox go, to put it in a baseball analogy, I've seen enough of Kenny Williams to know that he has swung and missed more than he has connected. I'd like to see a new GM in town in the next couple years.

Baseballog - Midseason Review on Predictions

I didn't want to be one of those guys who makes predictions to start the season and not follow up with how they are doing, as many people who make predictions of any sort tend to do. Here's a look back at my 2011 preseason baseball predictions and my assessment on how they've looked so far. Mind you, the surprise teams were based on odds that my gambling site at the time posted and nothing to do with how a team may have performed in previous years.

(Note: If you take a look at my picture that opens my prediction blog, you will see that I could not have been more wrong about Adam Dunn. High on-base percentage and 41 home runs, my ass!)

Predictions vs. Reality (at the All-Star Break)

AL East
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays....Reality: Rays. Even though they are 6 games back in baseball's toughest division, they are showing that they are better than the price that oddsmakers put them on.
Division Winner- Prediction: Boston....Reality: Boston and NY are looking like they will be in a neck and neck race for the division title. Boston has survived a terrible start and lots of injuries and NY's pitching has been deeper than expected thanks to the resurgence of Bartolo Colon. I'll stick with my Boston prediction but now I think NY will be the Wild Card winner.

AL Central
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Minnesota....Reality: Oops. The Indians were paying close to 15/1 or 20/1 to win the division. Clearly I fumbled the surprise team in this one.
Division Winner- Prediction: Minnesota....Reality: Oops, Part II. This looks like a two-horse race to me (sorry Chicago, too inconsistent for me to trust with my preseason prediction). I think Detroit holds off Cleveland and wins it.

AL West
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Los Angeles Angels....Reality: Solid prediction. One game out of the division lead. Getting 3/1 on them to start the year would have been a good deal.
Division Winner- Prediction: Texas....Reality: Another AL division, another 2 horse race. At least like my Boston prediction, Texas looks like they can live up to my Magic 8-ball prediction of winning the division. I'll stick with Texas as my division champ.

NL Central
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Cubs....Reality: Uhm.....Next. Pittsburgh takes the cake here no doubt.
Division Winner- Prediction: Brewers.....Reality: Milwaukee is in a 4-team race for the division title. I like the move to get K-Rod, although I wonder if there will be a closer controversy if Axford blows a save that might get fans going and get egos riled up in the dugout. St. Louis has survived so much and is still right there. I'm rooting for my original prediction, but I see St. Louis winning this for some reason.

NL East
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Florida....Reality: It looked good for a month or so, but now Florida sits at the bottom of the division despite riding a 5-game winning streak into the All-Star break. The Mets being over .500 (albeit one game over) would probably be the biggest surprise.
Division Winner- Prediction: Braves....Reality: I think I was trying to be cute and go against the grain of picking the obvious Phillies pick here. Even though Philadelphia's up only 3.5 games over the Braves, I don't see the Braves overtaking them. I do see them taking the Wild Card though.

NL West
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: San Diego....Reality: While San Diego is playing better than most people probably thought they would, the winner of the surprise team goes to Arizona, projected for a win total in the mid 70s and currently sitting 3 back.
Division Winner- Prediction: Giants...Reality: This division pick is the one I am most comfortable with, despite an injury to their best player, Buster Posey. Despite their offensive woes, the Giants find a way to grind out just enough runs to support their outstanding pitching staff.


Prognosis:
Surprise Teams: Only really hit on the Angels and Rays, with the Angels being the only of the surprise teams that have a shot at the division crown this year. The others, I soon found, were longshots to win their divisions for a reason.
Division Winners/Wild Cards: There's a chance I could hit all 4 of my NL playoff teams, albeit with the NL East winner/Wild Card switched. I had the AL Central completely wrong (and probably will barring a White Sox/Twins hot 2nd half) but feel solid with Texas and Boston.

New World Series prediction: Philadelphia over Detroit

Dunn but Not Finished: Adam on the Eve of Returning to Normalcy

Statistics of a White Sox player at the All-Star break (named to an All-Star appearance once before):

.197 average, 5 HRs, 22 RBIs in 76 games played.

If you are not an active statistics follower and just happened to hear the previous sentence and statline presented to you, your answer would likely be Adam Dunn. You'd be wrong, of course.

Those statistics belong to none other than 5-time All-Star Paul Konerko in 2003. After producing All-Star worthy numbers the previous year (.304 average, 27 HRs, 104 RBIs), Konerko started terribly in 2003. In addition to the #s mentioned above, Paulie had a meek .267 on-base percentage (current career # is at .357), .300 slugging percentage (currently career at .502) and only 4 multi-RBI games.

Post All-Star #s were more in line with what you'd expect from Paulie. In 67 games to finish 2003, he batted .275 with 13 HR and 43 RBIs. His on-base percentage of .346 and slugging of .507, in addition to 13 multi-RBI games, were representative of the Paul Konerko that we've gotten used to on the South Side.

"The field of play is that way, not right behind you".

If we look at Dunn's statistics, we see a similar out-of-nowhere drop/dip in numbers. Entering the All-Star break, we see a man that is a far cry from his 35 HR, 88 RBI and .380 on-base percentage that he accumulated in an average season for his first 10 years in the National League.

As of blog posting time (7th inning of the Sox game to close the All-Star break), his current stats (.160 average, 9 HR, 34 RBIs and striking out about 1.5 times/game ~ 116 in 78 games) are pathetic to say the least. His on-base percentage of .292 is astounding considering his hitting woes. He still draws his share of walks (actually has more walks than hits: 46-43), but certainly not enough to make up for his lack of production at the plate. With Dunn, a .250 career average (as he has now) is what we Sox fans should expect, especially given his ability to draw walks and allow others behind him a chance to drive him in.

These bad numbers could be the result of an injury that we just don't know about. I doubt it's an issue of age, considering most guys can still have their peak years into their mid 30s - Dunn is 31. Paulie was only 27 when he had that horrible first half start, so he had a little bit of age on his side. Still, I don't think age has anything to do with it.

Could it be just a bad adjustment to becoming a full-time DH that is doing him in? If that's so, then we may be in more trouble in future years - since Konerko is not going anywhere and I doubt we'll be moving Dunn full-time to the outfield. I know certain guys can't be DHs since it takes them out of the game and has them stressing more about bad at-bats than if they had something like fielding to take their mind off of their hitting.

I'm hoping it's more or less just a half-season slump and we will see second-half numbers of around .250 average, 16 HRs and 40 RBI, with a better OBP as a result. I don't mind the strike outs (we knew we were getting those when we signed him), but they do need to drop if he's gonna be hitting more. If he is to produce numbers like that, his season stat line would be 25 HRs, 74 RBI, average around .200 - numbers that seem like a phantom at this point.

I'm gonna go out on a limb (yeah, like that's saying a lot) and say we'll see a better Adam Dunn in future years. This start for him is not representative of what he has accomplished in his career.