Stink of the Sox: How Getting Clubbed by Cubs Shouldn't Be A Surprise (and Why I Expect Further Stink)

Entering the 2013 season, I had lower fan expectations than most when it came to the Chicago White Sox, who I believed overachieved greatly last season in holding first place in the AL Central for most of the second half of the season before being edged out by the eventual pennant winners Detroit Tigers.

My prediction of 76-86 was based on my questions with guys who had tough shoes to fill (Flowers replacing Pierzynski), who strike out too much for how little they get on base (Viciedo, Alexi), guys who would have a difficult time duplicating previous seasons (Sale, Peavy), and guys who would likely tail off at some point (Konerko).

I have been wrong so far about my pre-season assessment of Sale and Peavy, but otherwise most of my suspicions for a tail-off this season have been proved true, especially in their latest series versus their National League counterparts about 10 miles north.

The White Sox hitters have been beyond putrid this season. Check out some of these team stats entering Thursday's game (their third loss to the Cubs), accompanied by their AL rank (out of 15 teams). And remember that the Astros (one of the worst teams in the majors) are now in this league:

• .240 batting average (13th)
• .293 on-base percentage (15th)
• .379 slugging (13th)
• .672 OBP (15th)
• 126 extra base hits (15th)
• 121 walks (15th)

Trying to find a good stat from White Sox hitters is like trying to find Where's Waldo as a kid when the pages weren't pre-circled. If it wasn't for the stellar pitching of Sale & Peavy, this team would be much much worse than their 24-27 record indicates. It's actually quite surprising that they've even gotten this many wins.

On the other side of town...the Cubs have actually showed some promise, more than most people were expecting.

Here are the Cubs stats in the same categories entering play on Thursday:

• .248 batting average (8th - a higher average even though pitchers have to hit in NL)
• .302 on-base percentage (12th - one of the things really holding this offense back from being even better)
• .411 slugging (3rd)
• .713 OBP (8th)
• 172 extra base hits (1st in NL, 4th in the majors). 
• 118 walks (15th)

Most of these stats are not too shabby, especially for a team that sports a 22-30 record. Strange thing about their record is their runs for vs. runs allowed (Cubs have plated 214 runs to their opponents 208, including Thursday). These are stats that I like to use to see what teams might have deceiving records at a certain point in the year (I like to start taking stats/trends seriously around the 35-40 game mark). This contrasts the Sox luck of scoring only 183 runs while allowing 212.

Yes, at the end of the year, the record is what tells the story, especially of who is playing in the postseason and who is joining Terrell Owens and just eating popcorn in October. And by the time this season ends, I believe it will be the Cubs who will have bragging rights (at least with win totals) over their South Side brethren. 

With one game left in their season series with the South Siders on a yet-to-be-determined date, the Cubs clinched the Crosstown Cup with their win Thursday. Whenever their next game might be, I believe we will be looking at a North Side team that will have overtaken the White Sox in wins.

A Look Back (and Look Ahead) at MLB thru All-Star Break

Many of you (based on blog views) read my MLB preview back in February in which I gave some of my predictions. Here it is again in case you want to take a look at it. Another blog I wrote featured a few more daring predictions: check that out here. I like to look back at my predictions, no matter how good or bad they are.

First, the Good predictions:

• Dunn will return to a 30+ HR hitter. He's only a few away from that mark. Granted, his average sucks, but he is seeing the ball better (much better OBP - which is what he is known for).
• One long-shot will win a division. Jury is still out on this, but according to the numbers I posted in March from what they were on 5dimes, the Pirates (30/1 to win NL Central), Mets (55/1 to win NL East), Orioles (110/1 to win AL East - yes, that high of odds - not a misprint), & the White Sox (12/1) are all in reasonable spots to contend in the second half of the season for their divisions. There's a chance none of these teams will win their division, but the fact remains - there's usually at least a few teams that come absolutely out of nowhere to make a surprising playoff run (or at the very least, threaten to make the playoffs).
• Nationals predicament w/ Strasburg. His inning limit is set in stone apparently. He has pitched 99 of his allotted 160-170 innings for the year, and yes, like I thought, the Nationals are in playoff contention. If this limit includes the playoffs, I think he's going to need to skip a few starts the rest of the year. 79 more team games would mean about 15-16 more starts if they stick with a 5 man rotation. 60-70 more innings in that time, wouldn't even be pitching more than 5 innings per game. Not sure of their minor league depth, but perhaps they could go to a 6-man rotation at a certain point. I would not want to have Strasburg sit if I'm a Nationals fan, but given the choice, I'd rather have him sit (or spread his starts out) now rather than later.
• Chris Sale as the best pitcher in the Sox rotation. I said that he would be the best by the end of the year, so I'm ahead of schedule. Peavy started off hotter than Sale, but the lefty has definitely left his mark as the future ace of the staff. I hope the Sox brass ensures that we don't overuse Sale now at the risk of a year-long injury in the near future (Wood, Strasburg, etc.). I know this sounds blasphemous, but Sale has the look of a younger Randy Johnson when he throws his wicked southpaw heat.
• AL HR leader: Jose Bautista (w/ Adam Dunn as listed sleeper); Al Cy Young: David Price; NL HR champ: Mike Stanton (Bruce as sleeper) - all have a fighters chance in those respective races. Except Mike is no longer Stanton's first name. Does that count against me?

Now, the Bad predictions

• Marlins winning a World Series - seems a little far fetched. I don't think they'll even finish about .500 at this point, yet alone win a World Series. Many of the stars on the team have underachieved. The defense behind the pitching has been awful. Chalk this one up as a loss for yours truly.
• Detroit Tigers running away w/ the AL Central. Many people had this one wrong as well. The Tigers could go on a great run to end the season and win by 10+ like they did last year, but I don't see it happening. I, like many others, underestimated what the White Sox are capable of. I think it will come down to the last series with the White Sox taking the AL Central crown again.
• MVP choices: Miguel Cabrera in AL & Hanley Ramirez in NL. Way way off.
• NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay. See above.

Glad to see I hit more than I missed on these. Here's my revised picks for divisions and World Series:

AL East: NYY (original pick: NYY)

AL Central: Chi (original pick: Det)

AL West: Tex (original pick: Tex)

AL Wild Cards: Detroit & LAA (original picks: Rays & LAA)

NL East: Washington (original: Mia)

NL Central: StL (original: StL)

NL West: SF (original: SF)

NL Wild Cards: LA & Cin (Original: Wash & Phil)

ALCS: Rangers over White Sox (Original: Yanks over Tigers)

NLCS: Wash over SF (Original: Mia over SF)

WS: Rangers (FINALLY!) over Wash (Original: Mia over NYY)

Feel free to offer your own predictions as you see them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

MLB - Bold Predictions 2012

With baseball about to start, it's about time to make some predictions. I made some in my MLB preview last month, so here's some more.

• Adam Dunn will hit 30+ HRs once again - As my friend Nick mentioned to me yesterday, Dunn's numbers in 2011 could not have been predicted by anyone who studies baseball statistics for a living. His season really came out of nowhere, and for someone at his age (entered 2011 as a 31 year old), a sudden drop-off in numbers is quite rare. I'm dismissing the possible "steroids" angle that many suspect when numbers drop off drastically. Instead, I believe his appendix issue to start the year (where he had to have a surgery after the first week of the season) carried over into the season, which resulted in numbers that would have made 99% of major leaguers get demoted or booted out of baseball altogether. I believe we will see a happy medium between the 40 HR Dunn from the decade preceding 2011 and the craptacular version we saw last year.
• There will be at least one team who wins their division with division odds greater than 10/1 - Candidates for this include the NL Central (Cubs 21/1, Pirates 30/1, Astros 135/1), NL West (Padres 18/1), NL East (Mets 55/1), AL East (Blue Jays 12/1, Orioles 110/1) and AL Central (White Sox 12/1, Royals 14/1, Twins 17/1, Indians 90/1). All odds are from 5dimes. AL West odds are not available since two of their teams already played, but I'm willing to guess the two teams who did play (Athletics + Mariners) were both over 10/1. That means over 40% of teams are considered long shots to even make the playoffs. However, there's almost always one team that overachieves (i.e. Diamondbacks). I wouldn't be shocked (based on percentages) that it would be a team in the AL Central. The Tigers have a strong offense, but have a very suspect defense and some average arms behind last year's Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander. 
• The Nationals will be in a predicament in September. This first part is a big assumption. I have the Nationals pegged as a Wild Card team. Right now, they seem to be this sport's version of the Detroit Lions, where many experts are projecting postseason play for the first time in a long time. So what's going to be the issue? Two words: Stephen Strasburg. After coming off of Tommy John surgery, Strasburg is on a 160-innings pitched limit. I'd assume that includes the post season. If he stays healthy and doesn't miss a start...let's say he averages 6 innings a game. That would put him at 27 starts, assuming they go with a 5-man rotation the whole year. That would put them around the first or second week of September. Seems strange to make a guy your opening day starter but also cap his innings. The fan pressure may be too much to bench him for the year. I'm hoping (if they stick with this limit) that they skip his spot in the rotation several times and give a spot start to a minor leaguer. If they aren't in the division or wild card races, then shutting him down will be much easier to do.
• By the end of 2012, Chris Sale will be the White Sox best starting pitcher - We've seen what he can do in the bullpen. The Sox certainly didn't draft him to be in the bullpen though, so Adios to Buehrle, and a Hello to Sale. Expect corny Internet and newspaper headlines involving the southpaw's last name. For all of those syndicate newspapers that read my blog, here are some....you're welcome: Epic Sale; Setting Sale; At a Sale's Pace; Working on the Sale Road.
  
  Ok, I admit some of those are bad - but then again, so are a lot of headlines I read every day.
• The Marlins will win the World Series - I know Cubs fans feel depressed every time someone other than them wins it all, but even the White Sox, who almost moved to Florida in the mid 90s, have to feel a little ill that a team that has been around for less than 20 years already has two titles. If my prediction is correct, it would be 3. The Marlins aren't a huge underdog (20/1 odds puts them with the 8th best odds), but I consider it a bolder proclamation than saying the Yankees will win it all. As I mentioned in my MLB preview, I like their rotation, like their overall lineup better than anyone else in their division (Phillies included). I'd take the 20/1 odds but my friend who gives me access to the 5dimes site said our accounts are going to be shut down at the end of the NBA playoffs.
• *Future Prediction...The Cubs Will Win a World Series Before the White Sox Win Another - I am sold on Epstein as a winner and think he will get the North Siders going in the right direction a lot quicker than Kenny Williams will the White Sox. Epstein helped push Boston over the edge in 2004 and then again in 2007, mainly by building up their minor league system. Pieces they didn't use (i.e. Hanley Ramirez) were traded for pieces that helped win them World Series (i.e. Josh Beckett). I think a focus on better scouting, which involves some Sabermetrics (for those not in the know, think of the movie Moneyball), and not a heavy reliance on free agency (although every good team needs some good free agent signings) will help bring the Cubs back to the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. As far as the White Sox go, to put it in a baseball analogy, I've seen enough of Kenny Williams to know that he has swung and missed more than he has connected. I'd like to see a new GM in town in the next couple years.