Brian is an Angry Andy - Plus Week 8 NFL/Week 9 NCAA Picks

NFL stuff on my mind....

Please please please Detroit....destroy the Broncos this week! I can't take this Tebow stuff much longer. The media spend too much time talking about a fullback playing quarterback for a team that will get about 4-5 wins this year. The Broncos were smart in having his first start be against a shitty team. Trust me, they weren't gonna have him embarrass the franchise against a team like the Packers.

If the Niners don't win the NFC West, I will murder someone. With the lack of talent in this division and any of these teams lucky to reach 6 wins, the Niners should clinch this division around Week 12 or 13. The only question we should have to worry about is whether we could get a bye. As crazy as it sounds, there's an outside shot of the Niners getting the #2 seed, assuming they can run through the NFC West as they should and some of the Saints' tough division games result in a few more losses.

This Andrew Luck talk ("Suck for Luck") is getting annoying - Phil Simms had to open his fat mouth on the subject, saying that Peyton Manning would not allow for the drafting of Luck. Sorry, but a guy who is entering the twilight of his career coming off of his second surgery is in no position to dictate future moves of the franchise. If Andrew Luck turns out to be the next Rodgers or Manning and the Colts let him go, they'd be setting their franchise back for many years to come. Actually burying the lead on this: the Colts aren't guaranteed to be the first pick!!!

We are 6-7 games into a 16 game season, with 3 teams that have failed to win a game so far. Let the season play out before we have these talks. Everyone (i.e. ESPN) is so quick to annoit the team that gets the first pick that they're not allowing the season to just take its course.

Final fantasies: I have a combined 2-19 record in my 3 money leagues, with the two wins coming in one of the leagues. That means I am pulling an 0-fer in the other two leagues. Funny enough, I'm not horribly disappointed with this, as my real life team (San Fran) is headed towards its first playoff berth since 2002. I'll gladly trade any fantasy football success for success for my team.


Fools Gold
I ran into my first loss with betting an underdog in this column, with Arizona losing to Pittsburgh by a couple scores. That moves my record to 5-2 (4-2, +$60 when betting it).

Week 8 game: Cincy (-2.5) at Seattle: Cincy enters this game well-rested after a bye week followed two wins. Meanwhile, Seattle looked like a turd against the Browns (these puns write themselves, I love it).

I may lay off of betting this game, but I think this is a sucker line. I'll be more likely to pull the trigger if Tavarus Jackson and/or Marshawn Lynch return to the lineup. The Bengals usually suck when going out west. I remember betting them in a pool when they faced the Raiders a few years back and Palmer took a fat turd. I think Dalton, although solid for a rookie, will face his toughest road test in terms of crowd noise. This should result in some false starts and other penalties that will favor the Seahawks. I see a 20-17 Seahawks win.

Other potential Week 8 bets:

KC +3.5/4 vs. San Diego- I really love this one. I don't think SD is as good as its record shows. KC ended up easily covering as 14 point dogs against the Chargers a week before going on their 3 game winning streak. I think KC will win this one straight up and join the Chargers and Raiders atop the AFC West division.

New England -2.5 at Pitt - Brady and Belichick seem to have the Steelers' number, and I think that continues. The Steelers have won 3 straight against 3 teams that they should beat. With the Ravens next on their schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight look-ahead to that game, although I don't think Tomlin will let them do that. Either way, the Pats should cover.


NCAA Bets I'm looking at

Nebraska -4 against MSU - MSU coming off of two emotional wins (against rival Michigan and an upset win against Wisconsin), a natural letdown spot if there ever was one.

Minnesota +16 against Iowa - Tim and I have made a tradition of fading Iowa on Halloweekend for some reason, so this year's flush of money is the Gophers.

Indiana/NU Over 61.5 - NU has allowed over 30 points in all 4 of its Big Ten matchups. After watching Indiana's game last week against Iowa, I saw their freshman QB move the ball well in the first and last quarters of the game. IU has no defense either, so I expect the teams to have some fun running the ball up and down the field.

Week 7	Week 8
NFL 1-3 -$97.50	NCAA 1-0, $50
Totals 0-0	Totals 0-0
MLs 1-0, $122.50	MLs 0-0
Spreads 0-3, -$220	Spreads 1-0, $50
YTD: 26-22-3, +$334.10	YTD: 10-15, -$374
Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 3-1, $208.50	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 14-15-2, -$154	Spreads: 10-9, $61

Reviving America's Pastime: The Amazing 2011 World Series

You like low scoring games? There's been 4 of those.

You like video games scores? There's been a couple of those, including the most exciting end to a playoff game (given what was on the line - elimination of the Cards) since Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.

You like superstars getting their big numbers? Does Pujols hitting three bombs in Game 3 satisfy your appettite? (probably not if you're a Rangers or Cubs fan)

You like unknowns (at least to the mainstream) making splashes? Mike Napoli and David Freese have played that role perfectly.

9th inning lead changes? Two of those as well, one by each team.

How about serieses that go to the max? First one since the 2002 Series won by the Angels.

Close games? There's been 5 games of 6 decided by 1 or 2 runs.

This series has everything a common baseball fan should want. So it makes sense that the ratings are higher for this series than most recently that didn't involve the Red Sox or Yankees.

Despite the sloppy start to Game 6, it still has to be considered among the top games of my lifetime in terms of excitement and intensity of the moment. So many firsts were set from that last game: first time there's been 10 innings of one team scoring at least a run, first time a team came back from defecits in the 9th and 10th inning, first time a guy tied a game in the 9th and then won it in extra innings, among others.

I doubt we will see the eyes glued to baseball the way we're seeing them now for a while. Baseball has lost its appeal to the common fan as NFL has overtaken it as the most popular sport in America. I've heard some people say baseball could go the way of boxing, but I don't think it'll dive off into that type of obscurity.

The problem with baseball's showcase series is that it hasn't really been competitive in the past decade. Unlike the Super Bowl, which has seen 7 of its last 12 winners triumph by a touchdown or less, the World Series has only seen 5 of its last 12 series go 6 or more games, with this being the 3rd sudden death game in that span. This means that seven series either ended in sweeps or another team only able to capture one game. That's not a good way to promote your sport.

Hopefully we will see more competitive series in the future. I'm writing this as the seventh game is going on, but I can already say that it's the most exciting series I've ever watched as a baseball fan (obviously the White Sox was my favorite ever as a homer). Here's my favorites in order:

(1) 2011 Rangers/Cards - (all but one game has been competitive)
(2) 1991 Twins/Braves - (one of the first series I remember watching as a kid. I was hopelessly rooting for the Braves in this series)
(3) 2001 Yanks/Dbacks (hard to not like this series, especially for anyone who hates the Yanks)

Enjoy Game 7 if you read this right away. If you read this later, I hope you enjoy the game and the series.

If you didn't, shame on you.

DirecTV Impact: My Introduction to the NFL Package & Picks for Week 7

For much of my adult life, I have known about the NFL package, but never got it for several reasons - (1) we never had DirecTV and (2) I never felt the need to fork up the dough to watch a mediocre Niners team even if we did have it. Also, there was the 4 years of Sundays where I was at college and the NFL package would have been useless.

Welcome to the NFL Package, Mr. Bolek

In previous years, I have gone to a local bar and spent anywhere between a games-worth and 2 games-worth of time watch the full slate of NFL action on different TVs. Funny thing is, you end up spending more money over the season at the bar for drinks and food than you ever would just ordering the package.

Enter 2011 - and I am the proud co-owner of an NFL package with a friend of mine. And it's been great being able to focus on 3 games with the three TV setup that he has in his basement. I've been able to catch all of my Niners games - and shockingly they've been watchable games from a Niners perspective.

More importantly, as a gambler, it's allowed me the chance to watch certain teams and see how they play better than reading a stat sheet ever could. Seeing box scores can tell you a story of a game, but how something happened (i.e. a receiver getting yards because his defender fell down rather than earning it against a standing defender) allows you to see more of a complete story.

That's not to say that I never took notice to these things before - it's just that I've been able to focus on these games better in a setting that wasn't as distracting as a bar. These mental notes I've taken of the few teams I've watched has allowed me to handicap some of these games better.

Hopefully I'll continue to see great Niners results and sharpen my handicapping skills at the same time.


Fools Gold & Week 7 Picks

Last week, Tampa Bay did just as I predicted - a 26-20 upset win over the Saints. This moves Fools Gold to an impressive 5-1 record, with all 5 winners actually winning straight up.

A couple of games stand out on the schedule as far as deceiving lines go, so I'll narrow it to one.

Pittsburgh (-4) at Arizona - Coming off a pair of home wins, including an ugly one against the lowly Jaguars, the Steelers are laying only 3.5 points against another opponent with only one win (Arizona's only win was in Week 1 against Carolina).

Pittsburgh enters the game beaten up. Polomalu will play after passing his post-concussion test, Mendenhall will play after sitting out a game due to injury. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries all year.

Meanwhile, Arizona comes off the bye. They are 1-1 at home but very well could be 2-0 if not for a controversial call going against them late in the game of their 31-27 loss to the Giants a few weeks back. They do play better at home and outside of their Week 5 game against the Vikes, have played competitive games in the first quarter of the year.

I anticipate a good effort from Arizona this week, a good game from Beanie Wells, and an upset win for the Cardinals.

Fools Gold Pick for Week 7: Arizona +4
Fools Gold (YTD: 5-1 (4-1, +$115 when betting it))

Other Week 7 Plays and Leans

StL +13 at Dallas - I caught the line at +13 when news broke that Bradford might play. I figured I'd take a chance that he would play. Even if he doesn't, I think this is too many points for Dallas to lay. All 5 of the Cowboys' games this year have been decided by 4 points or less (dating back to last year, it's 11 straight games decided within that amount). Another angle I'm playing here - according to a stat I found in one of my gambling forums, teams who have lost 5 straight games against the spread (as the Rams have) are 24-1 ATS in the 6th game. I'm not sure how far the trend dates back, but I'm willing to take the chance. Already booked at 13, may put more on it as long as it stays in the 12-13 range.

Tampa Bay +1.5 vs. Chicago - This game is being played 5 time zones to the east. While Tampa Bay has already settled into the time zone change, the Bears are probably flying over there as I type this (Thursday night). Learning from a previous London trip in which they were walloped by the Patriots - with many players admitting that they didn't adjust to the time change well, Tampa decided to fly out there early this time. I think Tampa might be a better team anyways, but having this bit of knowledge puts me firmly on the side of the Bucs.

KC +6 at Oakland - I think Palmer may have an adjustment period. KC coming off of a bye and a 2-game win streak. I expect Jackie Battle to have a good game for the Chiefs and help them keep within the number in this rivalry game.

Leans: Seattle +3, NYJ +2, Ind/NO Under 48, Car/Wash Over 43.5
Keep yourself updated on Twitter @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek

Week 6	Week 7
NFL 5-2, $250	NCAA 1-1, $45
Totals 1-1, $45	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-0	MLs 0-0
Spreads 4-1, $205	Spreads 1-1, $45
YTD: 25-19-3, +$431.60	YTD: 9-15, -$424
Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 14-12-2, $66	Spreads: 9-9, $11

As always, good luck to your fantasy teams, your bets and especially your teams!

30 Days & Not Confused (Chapter 7)

It's only been a month, but it feels like it's been a lot longer.

Of course, the first pictures have to be completely goofy.

I speak of the budding relationship I am in currently. It feels like the relationship has been going on for a few months - but in a good way. When you talk to someone consistently for a 30 day period, that's what will cause that feeling.

The conversations span from texts to calls, and of course, in person. They are conversations that are all over the place too - from sports to our pasts, from music to food and pretty much everything in between.

It's been a while since I've had such a wide base of conversations, especially with a g/f. I don't know if others look at that aspect of a relationship as much as I do. Looks are important, sure, but what good is a good-looking girl to date if you have nothing to talk about. Communication is the key to any relationship we develop in life, whether it be a business relationship or a personal one.

It's because of this good and open communication that I find myself more and more optimistic about what will come out of this relationship. Plans of Halloween parties and Halloween-related activities will be followed by a great birthday weekend for the lady (taking her to her first Bears game in November). There are also plans of not one but TWO! Thanksgiving dinners together (one with her family, one with mine).

(At this point, she and others of you reading this can tease me about my liking of having plans set. While I realize this is part of a self-diagnosed OCD, I attribute it more to having something to look forward to. And as you've read in the above paragraph, there's plenty to look forward to)

It's been as great of a 30-day start as one could expect to a relationship, and as you can see, the next 30 days and beyond have a lot to offer.

If you haven't had the chance to meet the lady yet, you're definitely missing out and I hope that changes soon.

Friend it Like Beckham: How FB Has Changed Social Conventions of What a Buddy is

In the past week, I've deleted about 40 friends from Facebook, and I could probably delete 40-50 more people. I've blindly accepted some friend requests in the past, notably from people from high school that I haven't spoken to since then (and really didn't speak to while in high school). I haven't been as quick to delete those ones as some other people who I've met once in my life or not at all and don't anticipate ever talking to again.

I'm wondering how many people actually go through the process of "unfriending" people. I see how many people that people are "friends" with and I laugh hysterically at it. There's no way that anyone could be friends with thousands of people. Sure, you could have met with and had a decent conversation or two with that many people over the course of your life. However, I highly doubt that any of us are truly friends with more than a hundred people at most, and that includes family.

Facebook has changed what it means to be a friend to someone. Back in the day (oh crap, using this phrase legitimately - what's next, a cane and false teeth?), friends were people that you hung out with at least once every so often. You would talk on the phone, talk at school and make plans to hang out.

Now it's probably more than just FB that changes the definition of a friend. As we grow older and move onto our new lives and careers, many of us grow apart and need technology to keep us connected. Hanging out and talking every day is not possible like it was before as a result of our new lives. So perhaps it's necessary to have these technologies to have any semblence to an "every-day friendship" like you may have once had with some people.

I also understand there are different degrees of friendship and different roles that people play in your lives. Some friends are closer, always have been close, and will be your friends whether you have a Facebook or not. Some are friends you may share a particular interest with and just share stories/activites with them and Facebook adds a dimension to your friendship with them that provides some use.

Then there's the friends who add you merely to add to their ever-growing list of friends as a way to boost their friend total. I don't know how anyone with thousands of friends (or even beyond 400-500 friends) could contact all of these people beyond the standard "Happy Birthday" messages in a given year. I don't see how it's possible. If you are a person who has this many people as a friend on FB and you can do this, I applaud you. I just don't see how I could really be friends (and decent enough friends where I know what's going on in people's lifes and hang out with them once every so often) with that many people. Hell, 368 or whatever I got right now is ridiculous.

If you find yourself deleted from my list and you read this blog every so often, no need to take offense. I'm trying to personalize Facebook to be more like who my real friends and real social network are like.

I'd love to try establishing more conversation with some people that I don't talk to as much, so if you read this and haven't talked to me in a while and would like to, please feel free to message me on the site.

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 

Week 5	Week 6
NFL 2-5, -$132.40	NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40	MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220	Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60	YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139	Spreads: 8-8, -$34

rock out with your lock-out: NoBody cAres

What's there to talk about in the sports world on this, the 12th day of October?

Hmmm....

In the NFL, you got some surprise teams on the good side (Lions, Bills, Niners), some on the bad side (Eagles, Falcons, Jets), dominant QBs and the defending champs looking every bit the part so far this year.

In college football, the SEC is once again making waves, with a November matchup between LSU and Alabama acting almost as a play-in game for the BCS championship in January. Also in this neck of the woods, you have the already bowl-eligible Illinois, 6-0 and facing Theeeeeeeeeee Reeling Ohio State Buckeyes.

In baseball, the playoffs have some exciting teams still left. Personally, I'd love to see a Verlander vs. Carpenter matchup in a week with a World Series game on the line.

Hockey season just opened, so for those into hockey, there's that.

So what about basketball? Yeah, not getting your blood bubbling that they're locked out?

I'm sure there are those diehard fans that are missing the sport and will miss watching the season from November through April, but when is the NBA our primary focus at this time of the year anyways? Most NBA fans I know are fans of one of the above sports more. I haven't heard much complaining about the NBA getting locked out, potentially for an entire season.

I also got a couple gambling friends who will be missing NBA if it's not in session, especially for the day-to-day fix that NBA feeds for gamblers. Look at it as a way to save some money, gents.

I don't mind a shortened season (50 games like 1998-99), since it will make the regular season games mean more. I would be disappointed if the season was cancelled, but my expectation of the season being done for is making it easier to deal with that possibility.

When the dark days of sports are accompanied by the dark days of winter in February and the Packers finish repeating as NFL champions, that's when most of us will notice the lull in the sports world and the sports depression will set in. If you're an NBA fan, I predict this is when the lack of NBA will affect you the most.

In the meantime, enjoy the best sports month of the year in the best weather month of the year.

Go Niners and Illini.

Life's a Pitch: MLB Playoffs Thus Far and LCS Predictions

Everyone remember the commercial from the 90s in which Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are conversing about hitting home runs, with the infamous "Chicks dig the longball" quote? In case you don't, here it is for your viewing pleasure:

Needless to say, home runs have been a fascination with fans since the days of Babe Ruth blasting more home runs than entire teams would in a year.

Sure, I like a good home run every now and then. But if you give me what we saw in the 3 winner-take-all games so far in the postseason, I'll trade that for a high scoring game anytime.

Between the Game 5s played in New York, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, there were a total of 11 runs scored between the 6 teams. Here are the totals of the starting pitchers of those games (including Ivan Nova, who was pulled after 2 innings due to an injury):

12 IPs, 11 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 10Ks (Ariz/Mil)
17 IPs, 9 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10Ks (StL/Phil)
7 IPs, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 7Ks (NYY/Det)

That's a combined 36 IPs, with 28 hits and 7 walks allowed (WHIP under 1.00), with 7 ERs surrendered (ERA under 2.00) and 27 strikeouts. An average of 6 innings pitched (higher if not for Nova), 1 walk, 5 hits and 1 run allowed, with 5 Ks in those outings for the six pitchers.

Stuff your 12-9 Mile High games in a sack mister - I'll take my 3-2 and 1-0 games all day, especially on the game's highest stage.

LCS Predictions

As everyone who watches baseball knows, it is one of the hardest sports to predict. That's why when I bet baseball, I usually just stick with total run bets. I don't see these LCSes any easier to predict.

I think the Tigers are going to need to win both of Verlander's starts to win this series. I think they'll end up splitting his starts and the Rangers win in 6. The Rangers have a little more depth with pitching and bullpen, especially now that they are using Ogando out of the pen. I think their lineups are both devastating, but as the playoffs have shown, good pitching will usually beat good hitting.

The Cardinals have made a tremendous September push to get to where they are now. However, with Carpenter, who pitched a shutout last night to get the Cardinals to the NLCS, likely only getting one start in the first 5-6 games of the series, I like the pitching that the Brewers can throw out there more. I like the Brewers to win in 6 games as well. With both of these teams knowing each other well (played 18 games in the regular season, splitting them evenly), I expect a very competitive series with the victor scoring less than 4 runs in several of the games.

Since my predictions have been way off so far this year, you Cards and Tigers fans can thank me for your World Series berths in the next 10 days.



Alls Well That Ends: The Wirtz Effect and How a Death Can Help a Business

News just broke that Al Davis has died. My condolences to him and his family.

As far as his business goes, it might not be the worst thing to happen. In fact, it may help them out greatly, if the Bill Wirtz Effect comes into play.

As many Chicago Blackhawks fans remember all too well, the mismanagement of their beloved team caused the team to be an afterthought at best in one of the biggest hockey markets in America, and of course, one of the Original Six teams. Wirtz, notoriously known by many as "Dollar Bill", was considered by many to be the lynch pin behind this terrible stretch of Chicago hockey.

This stretch of time he was president (over 4 decades), he banned home games from being played on TV - for fear of fans not going to the games if they were able to stay home and watch them. I never understood this reasoning, seeing as though just about every team in every sport shows their teams' home games (I know that the NFL has restrictions on showing home games in markets where a game has not sold a certain percentage of tickets). If he was so smart in the business world with liquor distribution and real estate, you figured he might have seen other pro franchises having no problem with this.

Anyways, we all know the Blackhawks' story - they've become relevant again. People actually want to watch them now. Through their actions, the Wirtz kids have amended their father's wrongdoings to the franchise by promoting the Blackhawks through the addition of home games to TV, the Winter Classic to Wrigley Field in 2009 as well as introducing a successful annual convention for Blackhawks fans to attend. This idea came from the bright mind of John McDonough, former Cubs and now Blackhawks president. They went from being to the worst ran franchise in sports to one of the best in a few short years thanks to the actions of the younger Wirtzes and McDonough. Winning a Stanley Cup for the first time in a couple generations didn't hurt things either.

Enter Al Davis. While he didn't have the extended run of no championships/championship appearances like Wirtz did, Davis has become significantly more irrelevant in the past couple decades. His run of success in the 70s and 80s has devolved into the 90s and 2000s Raiders that have been pitiful for the most part. Aside from their playoff appearances in 2002 (where their playoff run ended in the infamous "Tuck Rule" game) and 2003 (where they got slaughtered by their former coach and the Tampa Bay Bucs, not much but bad can be said about the Raiders.

Since that brief run of success, here's a list of QBs who have started for the Raiders: Rick Mirer, Marques Tuiasosopo, Kerry Collins, Andrew Walter, Aaron Brooks, Josh McCown, Daunte Culpepper, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, and Jason Campbell. I feel like I'm missing someone...

Oh yeah, JaMarcus Russell! Say what you will about recent first overall picks being busts, but no doubt in my mind is Russell the worst first pick of all time. After three seasons with the Raiders in which he finished with a 7-18 record, he was released. But not before collecting a shit ton of money. I wouldn't be surprised if he's already burned through the money that he got from his $61 million ($32M guaranteed) contract from the Raiders in 2007.

Sadly, one of the best first round picks the Raiders made in the past 15 years was for A KICKER! Sebastian Janikowski, who recently tied the league record for longest field goal (63 yards) was a first round pick for the Raiders in 2000. A fucking kicker in the first round! This from the same team that drafted a punter (Ray Guy) as a first round pick - to date, the only punter ever drafted in the first round.

With Davis' death, I'm hoping that the Wirtz Effect happens and hopefully the Davis heirs are half as intelligent as the Wirtzes were following their dad's passing. The NFL is a lot better league when the Raiders are relevant. Davis was a great contributor to the NFL, but his time of relevance and success had passed.

Let's hope that his passing can lead to the Wirtz Effect for the Raiders and they can return to a proud franchise again.

The Wrong Remains the Same

Naturally, my 3rd attempt at a World Series is wrong. The Rays were the first team eliminated from the MLB playoffs a few days ago, with either the Tigers or Yankees soon to join them. If the Tigers (my AL team in the WS in my 2nd prediction) lose, make that 3 for 3 on failed World Series predictions.

When you're gonna be wrong, make sure you're really, really wrong.

Robin & Bat Men - The Surprise Hire on the South Side

The White Sox shocked everyone by hiring one of their former players as manager. Robin Ventura comes back to the South Side not only new to managing, but also a cherry when it comes to coaching. The shock of hiring him should begin and end with that fact.

Reinsdorf is not a fan of spending money on managers (i.e. hiring managers with experience), so anyone who has seen his history should know that Terry Francona (who would have likely commanded double what they were going to pay Ozzie) was never really a serious option.

I wish Ventura well, but he's gonna need some help. Paging crazy Kenny Williams signing/trade.

King Wrong

Aside from my World Series predictions, other things I've been wrong on lately:

• Detroit Lions - While I don't think they will win the NFC North, the Lions have shown to me that they are in it to win it (love me some cliches). Megatron's catch in triple coverage last week in their comeback victory against the Cowboys just goes to show you how unguardable he is. Best receiver in the league.
• San Francisco 49ers - I know it's still early, but the Niners are the only team in the NFL w/ a 2 game lead on everyone in its division. They have one of the best defenses in the league so far statistically, but their offense is horsecrap. It did shows some signs of life against the Eagles. I never would have guessed that Alex Smith would have engineered two 4th quarter comebacks for the season, yet alone back-to-back road games. Maybe there is something to Jim Harbaugh and molding quarterbacks. He's the best coach that Alex Smith has had in his career.
• Fantasy football - specifically my money leagues. In my three money leagues, I am sporting a combined 2-10 record, with my only two wins in the league that I am the commissioner. In one of the leagues, injuries have exposed lack of depth; the other 0-4 league shows mild promise, but I doubt it is any more salvageable than the other winless league. Looks like my energy of winning $ this year will come solely from my gambling pursuits.

Fools Gold Play of the Week - Week 5
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5) - So far, the theme for the Fools Gold pick has been spotting a road team (always a favorite) that has caught the public's eye as "The Team to Bet" for the week. This week, a road favorite has caught my attention all the same for this column, but for the opposite reason.

Every Sunday night or Monday morning, I always look at the next week's schedule of games and set my own lines before looking on 5dimes to see what gamblers have set the line at. Over the years, I have gotten sharp at getting close to every game on the schedule to within a point of the spread that ends up being released. The games I am far apart on the bookmakers, I will usually assess what caused the difference in line.

My line on the Bills/Eagles game had Buffalo as a 2 point favorite, so needless to say, I was shocked when the Eagles were a -2.5 point favorite in my book. Never before has there been a 1-3 team favorites to a 3-1 team when the 3-1 team is hosting, so my shock was justified in seeing the line.

However, after thinking about the Eagles' losses and actively watching two of them from beginning to end, I'm reminded of how talented the Eagles are and how close they were to being 4-0 (Vick injuries in week 2 and 3 and turnovers/missed kicks in week 4). This isn't to say that the Bills are push-overs, but I don't think their defense will be sharp enough to handle the Eagles plethora of weapons. You could say the same thing about the Patriots game, but if you watch that game, several of the interceptions were not really caused by the Bills defense but rather the Patriots receivers themselves.

I think the Eagles get back on track en route to getting back to a playoff caliber level. Eagles win by 10. This week's pick (and already booked): Philadelphia -2.5

Last week's result: Cincy covered the +3 spread in a straight-up victory of Buffalo

YTD: Fools Gold is sporting a 4-0 record.  I have bet on the last three games on 5dimes (2 spreads, 1 money line) and have profited $170.

Likely Week 5 Picks

Carolina +6.5/7 vs. New Orleans - Cam Newton has rejuvenated a Panthers offense that was completely anemic last year. So far, Carolina has went 3-0-1 against the spread (the only record gamblers care about), which shows me that Carolina is improving. I thought that the Bears' defense might cause him some problems last week, but was I wrong (the wrong theme continues). I think the Panthers will keep this close and may even pull off an upset. I'm hoping to catch this line at +7.

Atlanta +6/7 vs. Green Bay - I hope to get Atlanta at +7. Matt Ryan is money at home, so spotting him a touchdown sounds more insane than betting against the Packers at this point. Falcons are a different home team and will get some revenge for their embarrassing loss to the Packers in the playoffs in January

Detroit -5 vs. Chicago - Now that the Lions have the attention of the nation, it only makes sense that they make their first Monday Night appearance in eons this week. The Bears showed themselves to be solid against Matt Ryan in Week 1, but have been shredded up by Drew Brees (270 yards, 3 TDs), Aaron Rodgers (297 yards, 3 TDs) and Cam Newton (374 yards, 1 TD). I expect Stafford to continue what he's been doing with Calvin Johnson, who has destroyed all corners and safeties that have come his way.

Other bets I am considering: Indy -2.5; NYJ +9.5. No totals have caught my eye yet.

Gambling on NFL & NCAA so far:

Week 4	Week 5
NFL 3-5, -$75	NCAA 0-0
Totals 0-4, -$220	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-0	MLs 0-0
Spreads 3-1, $145	Spreads 0-0
YTD: 18-12-3, +$314	YTD: 8-12, -$325
Totals: 7-5-1, +$127	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-0, +$126	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 9-7-2, +81	Spreads: 8-6, +$65

As always, I recommend following my picks on twitter.com/brianbolek or @brianbolek

Enjoy this week's action. I haven't decided if I'm betting any NCAA yet. Last week I held off, in part to not liking much and in part to the Buddy thing.

Good luck to your fantasy teams, bets and most importantly, your REAL teams!

up-Date (Chapter 6)

About 6 weeks back, I ventured into the online dating world. I had no idea what would come of it, but I figured it'd be better than continuing the same failed path that I had taken for the most part of the past two years before that.

Outside of meeting girls through friends, I never had any luck with meeting new people. A new path was necessary.

As you read in Chapters 2, 3 and especially chapter 5, I chronicled dates that I went on. With Chapter 5, I did not give it as much lip service because I wanted to respect the privacy of the date in addition to not exposing myself as much as I did in previous blogs.

In any regard, I feel comfortable giving a two week update in my first relationship from the dating site. She's an awesome girl. Lives in the city, but not afraid to come visit the suburbs (a necessary for this to work).

(to think I almost didn't message her because I figured most city people would not want to maintain a relationship with someone who lives in the burbs!)

She's met a few people so far and seems to get along well with those that she has met. She got to meet Buddy in the week before we put him down and has been a great help in getting me through it.

She has great taste in music - not like most girls I know who seem to like country and country only. If you're a girl and reading this, don't get wound up by this generalization! This summer, it seemed like every girl I knew went to country music concerts this summer and country music concerts only.

She knows how to cook, works a steady job that she loves, and her friends and mom who just met me love me. Who could blame them? Seriously, I'm awesome.

But seriously, I can't remember being this happy in a while, even amid the tragedy I just experienced.

I figured I'd give all of you an update on it, even if it was just a short update, and hopefully you'll get a chance to meet the new lady soon.

Some Buddy to Love: A Eulogy to This Man's Best Friend

It started with a kid and his puppy.

Rest in peace to my best friend, Buddy (1996-2011).

August 1996. The day after our annual family trip to Watersmeet, MI, our family decided to go to Archer Puppies, the place where my mom and dad bought our Golden Retriever which they named Crimson. She was in her waning years at this time - over 15 years old, so we decided to get a second dog that would eventually be her replacement.

The word "replacement" seemed laughable at the time. How could any dog replace Crimmy? She was there by my side when I was born in the UP of Michigan and was a loyal, loving dog throughout my life.

The dog we selected was the last of his litter. We wanted to get a similar dog to Crimson - a mutt with some retriever/lab qualities to it, and this dog stood out with his piercing green eyes.

Now, what to name him? A few names were tossed out - Chipper and Buddy were the finalists. We settled on Buddy - original, I know.

Any worries we had about Crimson and Buddy getting along were unwarranted, as the puppy kept out of the way of the queen for the most part. For the few months they co-existed, Buddy was still in his cage days as a pup. These days included a cliche coming to life. I left CCD homework on top of his cage, which he actually chewed - giving me the chance to legitimately use the excuse "My dog ate my homework."

When Crimson was put down in October of that year, we were all devastated. The dog that all of us grew up with was suddenly gone. I just knew that the connection I had with her would be impossible to match with the new pup.

Bud - Wiser: My High School Years

About as mean as he could look.

As he aged, so my love of the dog grew. I loved taking him for walks around the neighbor. My favorite spot was going to El Morro Park, where I'd go to talk to some girls from my class that worked there. Bringing the dog surely didn't help my chances with the girls, unfortunately. Nevertheless, our outdoor activities together as well as teaching him tricks (one of my favorites was catching the treat that was balanced on his big nose) made me happy to know that Buddy was a suitable replacement for Crimson.

Me and Spencer chillin' with a younger Buddy

College Days & the Introduction of Another Dog

Going to the University of Illinois in August of 2001 was the first time that I would go without having a dog around my living area. I knew that college would be tough enough dealing with the adjustments of a new living situation and tougher classes, among other thing. Living without a dog was definitely difficult to do.

Visits back home ensured me that my Buddy never forgot who I was. His cries could be heard and curly tail could be seen wagging furiously as I stepped out of the mini van after my parents picked me up from school. Those weekends spent at home were often spent hanging out with friends, but while at home, my best friend never left my side. It was always bittersweet saying good bye to him and the rest of the family as I left the house.

During my summer break of 2004, the time preceding what would be my senior year at UI, my sister wanted to get another puppy - a beagle mix that we named Pixie. If she did, my dad swore that she would have to take care of it - (editor's note: the next day, he was feeding her and picking up her crap. Dad Fail). I was skeptical of getting a new dog and remembered that one of the main reasons we got a second dog last time was because the older one was on its way out. I was not on board with the second dog idea, and neither was Buddy at first.

It didn't take long for Buddy and Pixie to become friends.

But after a little bit of time together, the dogs became compadres, with Pixie asserting herself as the clear Alpha dog. Soon after, the dogs got in the habit of cleaning each other's ears - a habit that continued into 2011. Buddy would lick her ears after a play fight that they'd have in the living room, while Pixie waited for her brother to be passed out on the floor to gnaw on his ears for 15-30 minutes at a time.

A common sight through their years together.

From the time before we got dog 2 to the time Pixie became an active presence in his life, Buddy's quality of life definitely improved. Each of them became dependent on the other, so much so that neither dog feels comfortable going outside to the bathroom without the other. Despite her occasional bitchiness to the old man, Pixie was a great addition to our household.

The Later Years

In the past couple years, there were a few instances where we wondered how much longer the Bolek's Best Friend was gonna make it. I'd be going on facebook and sharing my worries about his demise, only for him to tell me, "Buzz off, I'm great" with his eventual recovery from whatever the ailment at the time may have been. Hell, there were a lot of times where he'd be the one to initiate a fight with Pixie - putting a big smile on my face anytime he would try attacking her. He was a gentle giant with her though, so never were there any injuries from this ever.

Buddy at the end of one of our many poker games in the garage. He always wanted to be by people.
Don't worry - we drank those beers. He may have had a sip or two though.

The closest I thought we were to his demise was in June of 2010, when he had an inner ear problem (diagnosed as vestibular disease) that severely affected his balance. Luckily, the medication that we gave to him was able to curb his balance problem, and he was back to his old dog self.

With each walk I took him on, I always wondered if each walk that I would take with him around the block would be my last one with him. Luckily, this year, I was able to get his old legs to hobble around the block a few times in August as I was rehabbing from my back injury suffered in July.

In the past couple of months, his quality of life has been low. Many times, you could see him struggle with walking up and down stairs, collapsing occasionally while doing this in addition to some falls while just walking around the house.

The process of discussing putting him to sleep has often left me weeping. How could we put ourselves in this position of ending our dog's life?

It's never an easy decision for a family to make - and it's no different for us. Tears are coming out as I write this. I know it's for the best - as his quality of life was nil. He could barely walk and was starting to make waste in the house - something a functioning Buddy would not do.

Reflecting

I know it was the right choice. We were all waiting for a major sign like we did when Crimson was on her last legs. In her last week, she couldn't walk and had a huge tumor on her leg. I believe she was crapping in the house too. That choice was a lot easier for the family.

Always looked so happy.

Buddy could still walk, but do we want to keep watching him struggle mightily and collapse frequently as he navigated steps and could barely walk on flat ground without the chance of falling into a sitting or laying position? We couldn't keep doing that, so putting him down was the only logical option.

I never thought that Buddy could leave a legacy that could match (and in some ways, exceed) the dog before. But he did. He was always a happy dog, always loyal and always following me around. In the last couple years, he made a habit of sleeping next to my bed. He wouldn't even wake up for my dad anymore - just for when I'd roll out of bed to start my day.

Great picture taken by Lauren here.

In his last night with me, it was much of the same. Making it all the harder to do.

As I had imagined it in my head for years, I was able to share some Miller Lite with him (his favorite beer) the night before we put him down. He didn't finish the bowl, but he drank a decent portion of it.

I made sure to give him as loving of a last hug as I could - much like my sis's hug here.

I'll remember all of the walks we took, the treats I'd toss for him to catch, the tennis balls I would have him fetch (and oftentimes, the tennis balls that I ended up fetching after he got bored with it).

About thirty minutes before we brought him in, I decided that I needed one last walk around the block with him. I'm really, really, really glad I did.

He was always by my side, and he will be missed. It will be a tough thing to get through, but with the love and support of my family and friends, I know I'll be ok.

So it goes, it ended with a man and his dog.

The sun will always shine bright on this old guy.

The 5,529 days in-between, full of memories and great bonding experiences between man and dog, is an era of my life that I'll never forget.

Rest in peace, my stinky boy. You will be missed.