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| Welcome to the NFL Package, Mr. Bolek |
In previous years, I have gone to a local bar and spent anywhere between a games-worth and 2 games-worth of time watch the full slate of NFL action on different TVs. Funny thing is, you end up spending more money over the season at the bar for drinks and food than you ever would just ordering the package.
Enter 2011 - and I am the proud co-owner of an NFL package with a friend of mine. And it's been great being able to focus on 3 games with the three TV setup that he has in his basement. I've been able to catch all of my Niners games - and shockingly they've been watchable games from a Niners perspective.
More importantly, as a gambler, it's allowed me the chance to watch certain teams and see how they play better than reading a stat sheet ever could. Seeing box scores can tell you a story of a game, but how something happened (i.e. a receiver getting yards because his defender fell down rather than earning it against a standing defender) allows you to see more of a complete story.
That's not to say that I never took notice to these things before - it's just that I've been able to focus on these games better in a setting that wasn't as distracting as a bar. These mental notes I've taken of the few teams I've watched has allowed me to handicap some of these games better.
Hopefully I'll continue to see great Niners results and sharpen my handicapping skills at the same time.
Fools Gold & Week 7 Picks
Last week, Tampa Bay did just as I predicted - a 26-20 upset win over the Saints. This moves Fools Gold to an impressive 5-1 record, with all 5 winners actually winning straight up.
A couple of games stand out on the schedule as far as deceiving lines go, so I'll narrow it to one.
Pittsburgh (-4) at Arizona - Coming off a pair of home wins, including an ugly one against the lowly Jaguars, the Steelers are laying only 3.5 points against another opponent with only one win (Arizona's only win was in Week 1 against Carolina).
Pittsburgh enters the game beaten up. Polomalu will play after passing his post-concussion test, Mendenhall will play after sitting out a game due to injury. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries all year.
Meanwhile, Arizona comes off the bye. They are 1-1 at home but very well could be 2-0 if not for a controversial call going against them late in the game of their 31-27 loss to the Giants a few weeks back. They do play better at home and outside of their Week 5 game against the Vikes, have played competitive games in the first quarter of the year.
I anticipate a good effort from Arizona this week, a good game from Beanie Wells, and an upset win for the Cardinals.
Fools Gold Pick for Week 7: Arizona +4
Fools Gold (YTD: 5-1 (4-1, +$115 when betting it))
Other Week 7 Plays and Leans
StL +13 at Dallas - I caught the line at +13 when news broke that Bradford might play. I figured I'd take a chance that he would play. Even if he doesn't, I think this is too many points for Dallas to lay. All 5 of the Cowboys' games this year have been decided by 4 points or less (dating back to last year, it's 11 straight games decided within that amount). Another angle I'm playing here - according to a stat I found in one of my gambling forums, teams who have lost 5 straight games against the spread (as the Rams have) are 24-1 ATS in the 6th game. I'm not sure how far the trend dates back, but I'm willing to take the chance. Already booked at 13, may put more on it as long as it stays in the 12-13 range.
Tampa Bay +1.5 vs. Chicago - This game is being played 5 time zones to the east. While Tampa Bay has already settled into the time zone change, the Bears are probably flying over there as I type this (Thursday night). Learning from a previous London trip in which they were walloped by the Patriots - with many players admitting that they didn't adjust to the time change well, Tampa decided to fly out there early this time. I think Tampa might be a better team anyways, but having this bit of knowledge puts me firmly on the side of the Bucs.
KC +6 at Oakland - I think Palmer may have an adjustment period. KC coming off of a bye and a 2-game win streak. I expect Jackie Battle to have a good game for the Chiefs and help them keep within the number in this rivalry game.
Leans: Seattle +3, NYJ +2, Ind/NO Under 48, Car/Wash Over 43.5
Keep yourself updated on Twitter @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek
| Week 6 | Week 7 |
| NFL 5-2, $250 | NCAA 1-1, $45 |
| Totals 1-1, $45 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 4-1, $205 | Spreads 1-1, $45 |
| YTD: 25-19-3, +$431.60 | YTD: 9-15, -$424 |
| Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60 | Totals: 0-3, -$220 |
| MLs: 2-1, $86 | MLs: 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads: 14-12-2, $66 | Spreads: 9-9, $11 |
As always, good luck to your fantasy teams, your bets and especially your teams!
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